Posts Tagged ‘Bashar Assad’

A Quick LinkSwarm on Syria

Monday, June 17th, 2013

So Obama is (maybe) going to be shipping arms to Syrian rebels. I think this is a remarkably bad idea for a number of reasons, none of them that Bashar Assad isn’t a murderous thug who oppresses his own people, supports terrorism, and attacks and destabilizes neighbors like Lebanon and Israel. All that is true, and Assad certainly deserves a bullet in his head for his sins.

But there’s zero compelling evidence that toppling him is in the United State’s best interests, that America has any vital interests at sake in the Syrian civil war, or that al Qaeda-related Islamslist thugs won’t come out on top, impose Sharia law, and export Sunni-branded terrorism every bit as vicious and deadly as Assad’s Shia-backed variety. Indeed, the history of Libya and Egypt suggests that they are likely to be considerably worse. And predicting that Sunni Islamists are likely to come out on top of a post-Assad power struggle is like predicting that guys are going to wake up with no memory of last night in a Hangover sequel: we’ve seen this movie before.

Anyway, here are a few links for the current situation in Syria.

  • Who makes up the opposition to Assad in Syria? “An array of rebel militias heavily infiltrated by radical Islamists and al Qaida loyalists with no central command.” In other words: exactly who those of us paying attention have said they are.
  • Victor Davis Hanson makes the case that intervention in Syria is a bad idea. I’m glad I’m not the only one.
  • Michael Totten can’t make heads or tails of Obama’s plans for Syria…including whether we’re actually arming the rebels or not.
  • Speaking of Totten, he links to this piece that argues. “The Islamic Republic[of Iran]’s headlong intervention in Syria is akin to Nazi Germany’s surge of military forces into the Battle of Stalingrad in the fall of 1942 – an operationally competent, strategic blunder of epic proportions.” Not buying it, especially the part that says “Syrian President Bashar Assad’s ultimate defeat is a foregone conclusion.” His argument of Irnaian-backed losses being unsustainable also sounds remarkably like the “flypaper strategy” some said would kill off the supply of radical Islamists by drawing them to the insurgency and killing them in Iraq, and we all know how well that theory turned out…
  • Syrian Headlines One Year From Now

    Friday, June 14th, 2013

    New Syrian President Greets American Ambassador

    “A New Era”

    Syria Pledges Cooperation in Iraq, Lebanon

    Israel Claims New Syrian Government Shipping Arms to Hamas

    Damascus Under Sharia
    “They beat my wife,” claims distraught shopkeeper

    Syrian chemical weapons missing?

    Sunni, Shia Clashes in Lebanon Intensify

    They’re Back: How Hezbollah Survived the Fall of Assad

    New Round of Rocket Attacks Hit Tel Aviv, 2 Dead

    Iran Withdraws From Nuclear Weapon Talks

    American Solider Missing in Damascus
    Syrian government pledges “full cooperation”

    Hostage Video Released for Kidnapped Smith

    Mother issues tearful plea for Smith’s return

    Sunni Mosque Bombed in Karbala
    Iraqis blame Iran

    Alawite Insurgency Flares Again

    Syrian military talks end without agreement

    Clashes in Lebanon Spread, 31 Dead

    Syria Denies Involvement in Preschool Bombing

    Egyptian-Syrian Cooperation Pact Signed

    KLM 411 Flight Kuwait Missing

    KLM 411 Wreckage Found in Dessert

    Investigators Say KLM 411 Shot Down
    Iraq Denies Its Planes Were in Area

    Al-Qaeda Claims Responsibility for KLM 411
    “This is only the beginning.”

    Syrian Government Denies Supplying MANPADS to Al-Qaeda

    Jerusalem Hospital Bombed
    18 dead, more feared in wreckage

    IDF Invades Gaza
    Fierce Fighting
    First Large Incursion Since 2012

    More Lebanese Rockets Hit Tel Aviv

    UN Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza

    Israel Displays Cache of Hamas Weapons, Claims Syrian Origin

    Syria Denies Shipping Weapons to Hamas
    “More lies from the criminal Zionist entity”

    Six months after kidnapping, few leads on Pvt. Smith
    Mother: “I pray every night.”

    U.S Embassy in Damascus Overrun; Ambassador, 12 Others Feared Dead

    Obama: Embassy overrun by protesters of anti-Islamic cartoon

    Lebanese Civil War Heating Up Again

    (Related.)

    Syrian Rebels On Outskirts of Damascus

    Monday, January 30th, 2012

    What the headlines says, although they were repulsed.

    If President Hamlet was thinking about helping topple Assad, now would be a Real Good Time to jump off the fence.

    Plus, unlike Libya and Egypt, not only would it be very hard for the next government to be worse than the current one. Plus it would be a blow to Iran and Hezbollah, and thus would dramatically improve the possibility of real peace and a stable government in Lebanon.

    (Hat tip: Michael Totten)

    France Recognizes Syrian Rebels

    Thursday, November 24th, 2011

    “In a direct echo of previous events in Libya, France has formally recoginsed the opposition Syrian National Council and proposed that international troops should protect civilians.”

    Meanwhile, those rebels are calling for international air strikes against the Assad regime.

    It’s quite possible that the Assad regime could unravel much faster than Moammar Gadhafi’s regime in Libya did, since whole army units have already defected, and Assad is much more isolated from his country’s Sunni majority that Gadhafi was (at least ethnically) from his.

    France Pushing Intervention in Syria?

    Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

    So it seems:

    Alain Juppe, France’s foreign minister, has raised the possibility that western powers could intervene directly intervene [sic – LP] to protect civilians in Syria from the Assad regime.

    He suggested that “humanitarian corridors or humanitarian zones” could be established to protect those under attack.

    As the Assad regime presses ahead with its attacks on Syrian rebels, Mr Juppé has become the first senior western figure to raise the possibility of such an intervention. He said the issue would be discussed by European Union foreign ministers at a meeting next month.

    Of course he goes on to say that “full scale military intervention by the west in Syria was not being considered.” But I remember hearing much the same thing about the intervention in Libya, and we all know how that turned out.

    France’s sudden belligerence may seem out-of-character, but they’ve been pissed at Assad ever since he had Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri assassinated in 2005. France has a long history of ties with Lebanon, and the Hariri assassination was just the most overt act in Syria’s semi-successful attempt to turn Lebanon into a puppet state. I have no doubt that France would be happy to knock off Assad if they were sure they had NATO (or at least American and UK) backing and could be sure the job was done right.

    In other news, UNSECO’s executive board unanimously elected Syria to a committee dealing with human rights—even though the U.S. has a representative on the committee. Must be more of that Obama Administration “smart diplomacy” we keep hearing about…

    Syrian Revolt Gathering Steam

    Sunday, November 20th, 2011

    The rebels in Syria seem newly emboldened, as they just attacked the ruling Baath Party building in Damascus.

    One estimate of the death toll since mid-March of 4,500 Syrains killed, which strikes me as much too low.

    Barry Rubin says that Syria is no longer a revolution, it’s a civil war. He also says that the newly formed Syrian National Council is dominated by Islamists. Lovely. Guess who the U.S. is backing?

    It is hard to overestimate how disastrous Obama Administration policy has been. Not only has it promoted an Islamist-dominated leadership (which might be pushed into power by monopolizing Western aid) but this mistake has fractured the opposition, ensuring there would be several anti-SNC groups. This strategy has also angered the Kurds and Turkmen minorities who view the SNC as antagonistic to their hopes for some autonomy. As a result, these two groups have reduced their revolutionary activities.

    Rubin also recommends Syrian Revolution Digest as a source to keep up with the latest developments. And here’s a news scroll for events in Syria, courtesy of Lebanon’s NOW.

    How bad has it gotten for Assad? A pro-Syrian demonstration in Beruit only drew dozens of supporters, where previously Assad count count on his (and Iran’s) puppets in Hezbollah to throng the streets with tens of thousands. Of course, Hezbollah and Amal are still in Assad’s corner. I do wonder if Assad could start importing Hezbollah fighters wholesale, since his own army seems unable to contain the rebellion. I also wouldn’t put it past Iran to send combat troops on to prop him up, though that seems less likely.

    In the Weekly Standard, Lee Smith goes so far as to state: “Bashar al-Assad is finished.”

    Syrian Rebel Defectors Hit Assad Intelligence Center

    Tuesday, November 15th, 2011

    “Syrian army defectors attacked an intelligence complex on the edge of Damascus early on Wednesday, in the first reported assault on a major security facility in the eight-month uprising against President Bashar Assad, activists said.”

    The start of something bigger? Who knows? But the security apparatus is at the heart of Assad’s regime, and if rebels can destroy that, there’s nothing to save Assad from the long-suppressed fury of the Sunni majority…

    Syria Finally Ready to Blow?

    Sunday, November 13th, 2011

    Maybe. News that the Arab league has suspended Syria indicates Bashar Assad may be on even shakier ground than previously thought. Getting suspended by the Arab League for oppressing your own people is only a couple of steps above getting kicked out of the Klu Klux Klan for being too racist.

    And unlike Libya, even a hardline Islamist government would be a slight improvement on Assad, especially in Lebanon, if only because the Sunnis would break with Iran and cut off funding for the Shia Hezbollah.

    But it’s hard to tell. When Syrian generals defected at the end of July, that looked like it might have been the final push, but wasn’t. never underestimate a cornered dictator willing to do anything to stay in power.

    Frontline does a report from inside the Syrian uprising.

    Here’s an interactive map.

    Will Obama decide to roll out drone strikes in Syria? Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it, as Obama hasn’t seemed terribly interested in Syria, even by the lax standards of his foreign policy engagement. Also, the geography is more daunting than in Libya; to be effective, they’d have to come in over Lebanon or Israel to hit targets in Damascus, each of which presents (different) political problems.

    Stay tuned…

    LinkSwarm for October 6, 2011

    Thursday, October 6th, 2011

    A smattering of news on this and that:

  • Michael Totten recommended this Theo Padnos piece in The New Republic on Assad’s Syria and the personality cult the Assads have made of Alawi.
  • Stratfor says that not only was the Anwar al-Awlaki killing itself a blow to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, but it also got Samir Khan, the creator and editor of AQAP’s English-language magazine: “individuals who possess the charisma and background of al-Awlaki or the graphics and editorial skills of Khan are difficult to come by in Yemen.” Evidently graphics designers aren’t big on hanging out in Yemen and preaching jihad. Who knew?
  • The Club for Growth agrees with me (and Ted Cruz) that the China currency bill is a bad idea.
  • University of Wisconsin-Stout caves in over their stupid Firefly poster mess.
  • Finally, not a link, but I did want to note that I received a mailer for State Representative Dr. Charles Schwertner, declaring his candidacy for the Texas State District Senate District 5 seat currently held by the retiring Steve Ogden. I thought it was notable since I don’t think I’ve ever received a political flyer this far out (the primary is March 6, 2012), much less for a local race. I suspect this, along with the mention of the $300,000 he has in his war chest, is a preemptive show of strength designed to deter other candidates from jumping into the race. So far it seems to be working, as I haven’t seen reports of anyone else running.
  • Syrian Generals Defect: End of Assad Near?

    Sunday, July 31st, 2011

    Syrian Major General Riad El As’ad has defected along with a group of senior officers, announcing they’ll “fight the army of oppression headed by President Bashar Assad.”

    This is huge news, far more so in Syria than just about any other repressive Middle Eastern regime. Assad is a member of the minority Alawite group, which makes up perhaps 10-15% of the country, in a country where the overwhelmingly Sunni majority (about 71%) has long chaffed under Assad rule. Without the army behind him, Assad is toast.

    If only the Obama Administration had concentrated on turning Syrian generals a few months ago, when unrest first broke out, instead of pursuing it’s thus-far-ineffective drone attack strategy against the less dangerous Gadhafi regime in Libya, thousands of innocent Syrian civilians might still be alive today, and more democratic Syrian regime might be already be in place.

    In other Syrian news, a regime tank assault just killed another 121 people in the city of Hama. If the name sounds familiar, it should; Assad the elder slaughtered some 10,000-40,000 Sunnis there to stop an Islamist revolt in 1982.

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)