Posts Tagged ‘Texas Senate Race’
Thursday, May 5th, 2011
This press release from the Ted Cruz campaign (penned by J2Strategies consultant Jason Johnson) on those Q1 Texas Senate Race fundraising totals makes interesting reading. The classic lawyer advice is “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts.” And since the facts seems very much on Cruz’s side, Johnson pounds them relentlessly and effectively. It’s not that the document is free of spin (it is, after all, a campaign press release), but that the spin which is there is made far more effective by the remorseless logic of the underlying numbers presented and the understated (indeed, respectful) nature of the comparisons made with Cruz’s opponent’s.
A few high-points, taken straight from the press release:
“Cruz raised more than $1 million in 10 weeks, for an average of over $100,000 a week. The campaign received more than 1,100 contributions from over 900 unique individuals in 122 Texas cities and 37 States”
“The Cruz campaign raised $1,012,885 and has $965,153 cash on hand.”
“Almost all the money [Tom] Leppert raised is from the City of Dallas — a remarkable 78%.”
“[Elizabeth Ames] Jones experienced a very challenging fundraising quarter. It is hard to formulate a scenario wherein Jones is able to compete statewide.”
The press release takes particular aim at Michael Williams and Tom Leppert, perceiving (correctly, I think) that they are Cruz’s most serious rivals among declared candidates:
Cruz vs. Michael Williams
Michael Williams is the only candidate who is seriously attempting to contest Ted for the support of (1) conservative leaders, (2) grassroots activists, and (3) Tea Party leaders. But Michael Williams failed to raise sufficient funds to be able to compete in a statewide primary, especially against multiple candidates who have the ability to self-finance.
In Q1: Cruz out-raised Michael Williams by a ratio of 2.5:1. $1,012,885 to $414,119
In Q1: Cruz’s cash on hand is nearly four times Michael Williams’s cash on hand. $895,153 to $237,210 (less current debts)
In Q1: Cruz received over three times the contributions as Michael Williams (3.3:1.). Cruz: 1,147 Contributions; Michael Williams: 343 Contributions.
In Q1: Cruz received donations from 122 Texas cities, compared to Michael Williams’s 70.
In Q1: Cruz received donations from 37 States, compared to Michael Williams’s 16.
On Facebook, Cruz has 57,293 supporters, compared to Michael Williams’s 7,896
The summary points make further comparisons with Michael Williams:
In the “sub-primary” to determine the strongest conservative candidate in the race, Cruz is in by far the strongest position. Indeed, numerous national conservative commentators and grassroots leaders publicly (1) expressed concern that Michael Williams could not raise enough funds to run a credible statewide campaign against a deep-pocketed self-funder, and (2) stated that they would choose between Cruz and Michael Williams based in significant part on who could raise the most money to run a strong conservative campaign. Nevertheless, Michael Williams was only able to raise just over $400,000, and in Q1 Cruz raised 2 1/2 times as much.
In order to mount a credible statewide campaign in the Republican Primary, a candidate will need at least $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 to communicate with voters from January 2012 through Election Day. Michael Williams is not on a path to raise those funds.
To be sure, a candidate with significant name identification among primary voters could conceivably compete with less than $10,000,000. However, multiple statewide polls have demonstrated that none of the current candidates has substantial name ID. Indeed, despite Michael Williams’s having served in a down-ballot elected position for many years, he and Cruz are statistically tied in statewide name ID. With the exception of Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, voters simply do not know any of the candidates, and it will take serious financial resources to change that in a state as large as Texas.
In addition to dinging Leppert for his narrow fundraising base, in this press release we also see the beginnings of the “Tom Leppert is a RINO” attack I’ve been anticipating ever since the Dallas Mayor threw his hat into the ring:
Politically, Leppert’s record as Mayor of Dallas is demonstrably out of step with the values of the Texas primary voters. Indeed, it is difficult to see a credible path for a moderate-to-liberal Mayor of Dallas to win a statewide Republican primary in Texas.
I’ve been communicating with the Cruz campaign, and recently sent off some questions for the candidate, and hope to put up his answers in the near future.
Ten months out from the primary, there’s still a lot of race left. Michael Williams has time to right his ship, David Dewhurst has time to decide whether to get in or stay out, and events can undermine even the best-run campaign. But at this point Cruz and Leppert have to be considered the front-runners.
Tags:2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Michael Williams, Republicans, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 2 Comments »
Wednesday, April 27th, 2011
The FEC finally has fundraising totals for all the major declared candidates in the 2012 Texas Senate race. Ranked from most to least, they are:
- Tom Leppert: Raised $2,690,081 (including a $1,600,000 loan) and still has $2,592,219 on hand
- Ted Cruz: Raised $1,013,060 (including a $70,000 loan) and has $965,153 on hand
- Roger Williams: Raised $598,470 (including a $250,000 loan) and has $1,250,300 on hand
- Michael Williams: Raised $418,619 (including $132,160 in loans) and has $369,369 on hand
- Elizabeth Ames Jones: Raised $122,185 and has $128,541 on hand
Despite later starts than their opponents, Leppert and Cruz are clearly setting the pace here. Both seem to be raising money and campaigning hard, and Cruz has generated a significant swell of grass-roots enthusiasm. If they can keep this up, both will be serious contenders to make the runoff in March, with or without Lt. Governor David Dewhurst entering the race.
Roger Williams has raised enough to stay in the game, but despite the endorsement of former President George H. W. Bush (a legendary rainmaker with a well-oiled fundraising machine), there’s no sign that the Bush dynasty has put the full force of their fundraising prowess behind him. He’ll need to knock out Leppert (or Dewhurst, if he runs) to make the runoff, and so far he shows no signs of doing it.
Michael Williams has also raised enough to stay in the game, and probably has grassroots enthusiasm second only to Cruz, but he needs to pick up the pace if he wants to remain competitive. The current pace isn’t going to get it done, and he can’t make the runoff unless Cruz slips.
Ever since I posted on Elizabeth Ames Jones’ paltry fundraising efforts, I’ve been trying to figure out a reason for her to stay in the race. I haven’t come up with one. If there’s any significant enthusiasm for her campaign out among Texas Republicans, it takes more sensitive scientific instruments than I possess to measure. I don’t see her candidacy filling any sort of ideological void, and the sort of people who would vote for her solely based on her sex are not the same people who vote in a Republican primary. While there’s a lot of time left in the campaign, unless she can figure out how to make some serious noise (say, launching a series of non-stop attacks on Leppert for being a secret RINO) she should probably get out of the race.
A few other fundraising tidbits gleaned from the FEC reports:
Sean Hubbard, thus far the only declared Democratic candidate, raised $6,511.
Among the longshots, Andrew Castanuela ($262) and Lela Pettinger ($150) are hardly setting the world on fire, but Magnolia funeral home-owner Glenn Addison (who’s running on a social conservative platform) managed to pull in $20,432 (even if $6,877 was in loans), or about one sixth what Jones, a statewide office holder who has been running for about a year, pulled in over the same period of time. For someone with no real chance of winning the nomination, that’s pretty impressive. Mr. Addison won’t be the next U.S. Senator from Texas, but he might do very well in a local race should he choose to run for one in 2014.
Tags:2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Glenn Addison, Michael Williams, RINO, Roger Williams, Sean Hubbard, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 7 Comments »
Thursday, April 21st, 2011
FEC Reports for the Texas Senate Race continue to be posted for the fundraising period of January 1—March 31. (Indeed, they’re being posted so slowly that I wonder if a single arthritic temp is doing all the data entry.) The reports of Ted Cruz (over $1 million announced) and Michael Williams (over half a million announced) are not up yet, Tom Leppert’s $2,690,081 ($1.6 million of which was Leppert’s personal loan to his own campaign) was already announced, and Roger Williams raised $598,470.
But Elizabeth Ames Jones’ report is finally up, and it’s disastrous: $122,185. Raising less than one-quarter what the other major declared candidates have in the same period of time isn’t going to get the job done. Moreover, it’s a major step back from her previous 2010 fundraising total of $989,765.
Jones already had the most difficult path to victory of the major declared candidates, a path some were already saying was non-existent. Ted Cruz and Michael Williams were battling in the Tea Party Primary for the movement conservative vote, while Tom Leppert and Roger Williams are competing for the “who gets the establishment nod if David Dewhurst skips the race” slot. Jones, on the other hand, has, what? Unless she can magically pick up a disproportionate share of the woman’s vote (which seems doubtful), it’s impossible to see how she remains competitive when she’s been so heavily outgunned in the fundraising arms race. I’m far from an insider, but as far as I can tell, the groundswell for a Jones candidacy has been all but non-existent.
There’s a long way yet to go before the primary, but unless Jones can, at a minimum, quadruple her fundraising totals in the second quarter, she’s toast. She made be toast already.
Tags:2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, FEC, fundraising, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 3 Comments »
Monday, April 18th, 2011
Texas Iconoclast examines Ricardo Sanchez’s chances.
Paul Burka doesn’t think any Democrat has a chance:
Patty Murray’s explanation for why she thinks Texas might be in play is “demographic change.” We have been hearing that line for many years now, and there is no evidence that demographic change has changed voting patterns. Democrats make the mistake of looking at Hispanic participation in California, in Colorado, in Arizona, in New Mexico, and thinking that Texas could be just like those states. I disagree. Hispanics in those states are alienated. Angry people vote. Hispanics in Texas are not alienated. Unless the Democrats have some pretty good polling that shows the Republicans are overreaching with their budget cuts–and I doubt that they do–they should continue to regard Texas as a lost cause.
National first quarter fundraising winners and losers from both the Washington Post and Hotline on Call. I’ve been checking the FEC site regularly, and the numbers for Texas Senate candidates (beyond the withdrawn Florence Shapiro) still aren’t up yet.
Moe Lane on Sanchez:
If Sanchez runs as a Democrat, the groups that would have been most likely to push for further investigation at this late date–the antiwar Left–will not be interested in pursuing the issue. The antiwar Left will, in fact, enthusiastically support the man who was their head devil in their designated Hell on Earth…because to do otherwise would be to show some elementary sense of self-worth and dignity, and the antiwar Left has neither. So–when your Democratic masters get around to picking your candidate for you–go ahead and endorse Sanchez, ye progressives. Get on the floor and lick those boots. Not that Sanchez will win, anyway; 2012 will be a bad year for a Democrat in Texas. But it’s always fun to watch the antiwar movement futilely beat its own ‘principles’ to death on command for the benefit of their masters. You’d think that it’d get old eventually, but no.
Over at Wired, Spencer Ackerman is also not enthused about Sanchez.
Article on the Waco Tea Party event, including snippets from Michael Williams’ speech.
Tags:2012 Election, Abu Ghraib, Democrats, Elections, fundraising, Michael Williams, Paul Burka, Republicans, Ricardo Sanchez, Spencer Ackerman, Tea Party, Texas, Texas Senate Race
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Sunday, April 17th, 2011
Texas Democrats may have finally lured a high-profile candidate to the race: retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez. The only problem? His last notable job was being commander in Iraq during the Abu Ghraib prison scandal. Which was, as Democrats wanted us to know in 2004, The Most Evil Thing Ever. Sean Hubbard now has a ready-made campaign slogan: Sean Hubbard: He Never Had Subordinates Violate the Geneva Convention.
Democrats also announced that Texas will be one of the six GOP states targeted as a takeover opportunity. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Speaking of dubious notions, there’s talk of Ron Paul’s other son, Fort Worth physician Robert Paul, making a run for the Texas Senate seat. I don’t buy it. If the GOP field was already too crowded for Paul père to make a run, I don’t see his son having a chance either.
Most of the Republican contenders were (wisely) making appearances at various tax day Tea Party rallies:
Ted Cruz was at the Clear Lake Tea Party rally
Michael Williams was at the Waco Tea Party
Both Tom Leppert and Roger Williams mentioned being at The Lone Star Tea Party (not clear on the location; maybe Grand Prairie)
Here’s a piece where David Jennings defends Tom Leppert from charges of being a liberal…but which also points out that he donated money to the Democratic campaigns of Ron Kirk and Daniel Inouye. I’m not sure you’re helping his cause…
Good: Roger Williams offers up a list of conservative beliefs. Bad: It’s in the form of a PDF.
Tags:2012 Election, Abu Ghraib, Democrats, Michael Williams, Republicans, Ricardo Sanchez, Robert Paul, Roger Williams, Ron Paul, Sean Hubbard, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, April 13th, 2011
(I know, tired meme is tired. But I just like saying “Facebook Boogaloo.”)
It being the second decade of the 21st century and all, it occurs to me that merely providing links to the individual candidates blogs is probably insufficient to keep up with their latest statements. So, in the interest of providing myself a handy cheat sheet informing my readers of the latest developments, here are the major candidates’ Facebook pages (plus that of the undeclared Dewhurst):
Ted Cruz
David Dewhurst
Elizabeth Ames Jones
Tom Leppert
Michael Williams
Roger Williams
Oh, and in case you think numbers of Facebook fans are a serious measure of popularity 11 months before an election (I don’t), here are the number of “likes” for each candidate’s respective pages:
Ted Cruz: 57,128
David Dewhurst: 21,320
Elizabeth Ames Jones: 8,018
Tom Leppert: 1,268
Michael Williams: 7,871
Roger Williams: 6,191
Now some more race tidbits:
According to an interview with him, Lt. Governor David Dewhurst may not run for the Senate in 2012, opting instead to run for Governor in 2014.
Interview with Michael Williams at GOP-Is-For-Me. (Psst: Michael: Twitter and Facebook are fine and all, but I shouldn’t have to go past the News/Blog page of your website to find this.)
And speaking of Michael Williams, he raised $500,000 in the first quarter of this year, significantly behind what Cruz and Leppert have announced they’ve raised.
Some musing from the new Texas Iconclast blog on what those numbers mean.
Tags:2012 Election, David Dewhurst, Elections, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Facebook, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Tuesday, April 12th, 2011
Note: A more detailed and up-to-date list of Texas Senate Candidate Websites can be found here.
For today’s 2012 Texas Senate Race coverage, I thought I would provide a handy list of all the candidate’s own websites (listed alphabetically).
Websites for 2012 Republican Senate Candidates
Ted Cruz
David Dewhurst has not announced he’s running yet, so here’s his official Lieutenant Governor’s page
Elizabeth Ames Jones
Tom Leppert
Michael Williams
Roger Williams
Since I’m trying to provide a complete lineup, here are some very, very longshots that have declared for the Republican primary:
Glenn Addison
Andrew Castanuela
Lela Pittenger
I’ve seen reports that a Nick Latham is running (he declared in 2009), but it’s hard to take him seriously as even a longshot candidate when all the links on his website are 404.
Websites for 2012 Democratic Senate Candidates
Through diligent research, I have finally found an actual, declared candidate for the Democratic nomination. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you your de facto Democratic Senate front-runner, Sean Hubbard. Yes, it’s a Facebook page. I was able to reach Hubbard by email, and he says he’s just waiting for the domain transfer for his actual campaign website to go through. To his credit, that Facebook page has been updated recently, which puts him one up on John Sharp. (Actually, it appears that a few other people have finally posted encouragement on Sharp’s Facebook page, although Sharp himself still hasn’t posted in more than a year.) One problem facing Hubbard is that Texas voters might be a little hesitant to vote for someone who looks like he still gets carded trying to buy a beer…
As for other Democratic Senate candidates, I sent email to Sharp to see if he was running and received no reply. I emailed Chet Edwards today, but there hasn’t been much time for him to get back to me. I see Chris Bell’s name being bandied about, but his law firm doesn’t have an e-mail address for him, and it seems rude to bug him by phone.
Supposedly there’s a transsexual bodybuilder named Chris Tina Bruce running as an independent, but I can’t find a campaign website. Given the paucity of Democratic candidates, I’m not sure why Bruce doesn’t just declare for the Democratic primary, as the field is wide open…
And finally a dollop of Senate race tidbits:
Ted Cruz says he has raised (extend Dr. Evil pinkie) one MILLION dollars for his campaign.
Tom Leppert says he’s raised $2.6 million…but that includes a $1.6 million loan from himself to his campaign.
Ted Cruz gets some serious love from The Weekly Standard.
Tags:2012 Election, Andrew Castanuela, Chris Bell, David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Glen Addison, John Sharp, Lela Pittenger, Michael Williams, Republicans, Roger Williams, Sean Hubbard, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 4 Comments »
Thursday, March 24th, 2011
A confluence of events (a cold, doing my taxes, and a miscellany of more minor concerns) has cut into my blogging time, so it might be a few days before my roundup piece on Libya is ready to see the light of day (and I may have to skip the usual This Week in Jihad as well). So here are a few bits of local news, including some on the the 2012 Senate race, to tide you over:
A call for Texas to follow Utah and Arizona by naming an official state gun, in this case the 1847 Walker Colt Revolver.
Holly Hunter has some interesting thoughts and statistics on Williamson County Redistricting numbers.
In Texas Senate race news, here’s an interview with Ted Cruz.
Also, Rick Perry vs. The World endorses Cruz.
Michael Williams comes out with a strong pro-drilling position.
Praise for Williams from the Beaumont Enterprise for having the courage to leave his current job on the Railroad Commission before running for the Senate.
A liberal radio station host is trying to draft actor Tommy Lee Jones to run as a Democrat for the Texas senate seat. Honestly, I suspect that Jones would have a lot better chance than anyone else whose name has been floated by the Democrats .
Tags:Guns, LinkSwarm, Michael Williams, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tommy Lee Jones, Williamson County
Posted in Austin, Democrats, Elections, Guns, Republicans, Texas | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, February 15th, 2011
Things are pretty slow on the 2012 Texas Senate race (which happens when you’re more than a year away from the primary).
Both Michael Williams and Ted Cruz were at CPAC, and evidently Williams came off the better of the two. Also, I must not have been paying attention enough attention to Cruz’s resume, as I was unaware he was born in Canada.
Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert is evidently edging closer to a run.
And speaking of Dallas mayors, that piece also suggests that former mayor and current U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk will make a run for the seat on the Democratic side. The last time he ran for the Senate, he lost to John Cornyn to replace the retiring Phil Gramm.
And speaking of Democrats, the John Sharp campaigns continues to be virtually invisible, except for those occasions when it’s actually worse than invisible, with http://www.sharpsenator.com/ being squatted by a company selling, ahem, “male enhancement.” Of course, this report says that he called off his campaign last year, but that was before Hutchison announced her retirement.
Tags:CPAC, John Sharp, Michael Williams, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Tuesday, February 8th, 2011
From Rick Perry vs. The World comes this dandy video roundup of various Republican contenders for the 2012 Senate race. I hope to have time to watch all of them sometime today…
Tags:David Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Senate Race, Tom Leppert
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »