I keep looking for some insightful pieces on the Texas election results, but mostly what I’m finding is the usual MSMN “those extreme extremist Republicans have sure gotten extremely extreme” blather (see just about any Paul Burka piece for an example of the form), but I did find a few links of interest
“‘Some Democrats have said they want me to be the nominee,’ Patrick said during his victory speech. ‘Well, they’ve got me, and I’m coming.'”
And what does the party that hasn’t won a statewide election this century think of developments?
“Democratic Party spokesman Emmanuel Garcia added, ‘The days of a pragmatic Texas Republican Party are over.'”
Why yes, I’m sure we all remember how much Democrats praised George W. Bush and Rick Perry for their “pragmatism.”
Democrats also might find it hard to win the Agriculture Commissioner’s race with a candidate who refuses to campaign.
Empower Texas on what the media are calling the “Tea Party Takeover”: “You can’t have a takeover of something that was already dominated by those who are claimed to be taking it over.” The Tea Party is essentially conservative voters who insist that Republicans who run as conservatives actually govern as Republicans. Imagine that.
Today the Dallas Morning News has an article hand-wringing article on why white males have abandoned the Democratic Party. The title quote is from the middle of the piece, to which one can only reply “Well, duh.”
The piece makes the usual MSM-required mention of racism, and takes until the third-to-last paragraph to quote a Republican saying “The national Democratic Party moved sharply to the left.”
Ask yourself: What conservative Democrat of, say, 35 years ago, would back an agenda of trillion dollar deficits, illegal alien amnesty, gay marriage, and taxpayer funded abortions? Pretty much none, especially not in the rural areas Democrats used to dominate. It’s all-but-impossible to envision conservative Democratic stalwarts like Charlie Wilson or Allan Shivers back today’s Democratic Party. Add to the fact that liberals have ruthlessly purged Blue Dog Democrats from the party, and you realize that conservatives didn’t leave the Democratic Party; they were pushed out.
Austin, Texas: Today Satan, the Prince of Darkness and ruler of the infernal underworld, held a press conference on the Capitol steps to disassociate himself from the Texas Democratic Party.
“Last night, a bunch of pro-abortion supporters at the state capitol chanted ‘Hail Satan’,” said the Prince of Lies. “And, you know, all well and good. Any publicity is good publicity.”
“But I wanted to make one thing clear,” said the Angel of the Abyss. “In no way, shape or form am I, Hell, its many powers and principalities, or At His Satanic Majesty’s Request Industries Ltd., involved or associated with the Texas Democratic Party.”
“Sure, there’s a lot to like about the Texas Democratic Party,” said the Great Deceiver. “I’m totally down with the baby killing, I’m big on bankrupting future generations through deficit spending, I love breeding despair though intergenerational welfare dependency, and how could I oppose being soft on crime?”
“But, c’mon!” said the Son of the Morning Star. “I’m a man of wealth and taste! I’m hardly going to let myself be seen paling around with those pathetic clowns in the Texas Democratic Party!”
“If I were running the show, don’t you think I’d be able to get at least one Democrat elected statewide since 1994?” asked the Vile Tempter. “They used to own this state, but now these boobs couldn’t find their ass with both hands! I don’t want to be associated with that sort of incompetence.”
“If I’m going to come to Texas, I’m going to go to San Antonio to hang out with my heavy metal homies, because those dudes know how to party,” said The Great Serpent. “Plus I know a place that serves killer breakfast tacos.”
When asked if he was associated with the national Democratic Party, the Devil said “Wow, look at the time! I’ve got to wrap this up, I’m late for a beheading in the Sudan. But before I go, I just want to tell the reporters here that we’re always hiring good PR people for Hell, and we pay a lot better rates than MSNBC.”
Could Kinky get nominated?Sure. You saw how little effort it took to run as a Democratic statewide for the Senate, and Kinky starts off with greater name recognition than any of the Dems in that race. There’s little indication any prominent Democrat wants to go through the meat-grinder of a statewide race (though if I were to guess, trial lawyer Jason A. Gibson, who launched an abortive Senate bid before Sadler got stamped with the union label, might make a run). Kinky’s probably to the right of the Democratic primary electorate, but I don’t see anyone with his name recognition talking about a run.
Could Kinky do better than he did in 2006?Sure. Kinky only got 12.5% of the vote, coming in fourth. Even Democrat Chris Bell did better in that four-way race, pulling in just shy of 30% of the vote. That’s probably his absolute floor if he gets the Democratic nomination, and it’s probably closer to 40%.
Could Kinky win?Doubtful, but not impossible. Save for 2006, Democratic gubernatorial candidates have pulled in between 40% (Tony Sanchez) and 42% (Bill White) of the vote against Rick Perry. Perry clearly damaged his popularity with the missteps of his abortive Presidential run (and, to a lesser extent, his endorsement of David Dewhurst’s failed senatorial campaign), though probably not enough to lose to Kinky (or any other Democrat), assuming he runs again. But two years is a long time, both good and bad. Perry has time to recover, but also to make a catastrophic error or fumble a crisis. And while it’s not nearly as widespread as the MSM would like you to believe, there is a certain amount of Perry fatigue among even Republican voters. Perry’s already the longest serving Governor in Texas history, having replaced George W. Bush on December 21, 2000. That’s an awful long time for anyone to be in the same office, and there are plenty of people ready to make the argument that it’s too long.
Will Rick Perry run again in 2014?Answer cloudy, ask again later. Maybe even Perry doesn’t know yet. Word is that Attorney General Greg Abbott is itching for the office, and may run even if Perry doesn’t opt to retire. If I had to guess, I think it’s slightly more likely that Perry retires than that he runs again. He has nothing left to prove at a statewide level. Dewhurst’s implosion proved that even the most well-heeled Texas incumbents are vulnerable to a challenge from the right. Perry has very little to gain and much to lose from hanging on, and a Perry-Abbott race would be a brutal smackdown that could go either way. It would probably be in Perry’s best interest to assume that Texas A&M Presidency rumor has the diehard Aggie angling for as his post-gubernatorial sinecure, and possibly contemplate another Presidential run at the end of Romney’s second term. But Perry would hardly be the first politician to stay in office too long.
Another gubernatorial run might not be good for Kinky, but it would be be good for the Texas Democratic Party, which resembles a moldy thing in a jar more than a viable alternative. Kinky might (might) even be able to shake off the stultifying far-left political correctness that has rendered the party uncompetitive in statewide races.
It would also be good for the Republican Party of Texas; once you get past the Tea Party, there’s no one left to keep them honest.
Tomorrow’s election day! Get out there and vote! And if you’re still making up your mind, you might want to read my endorsement of Ted Cruz.
Now the final roundup of pre-runoff Senate race news:
Evan at Perry vs. World debunks Cruz’s role in Dewhurst’s last-minute “cash for kids” ad. “Ted Cruz was trying to help the Kids for Cash victims get the money they deserved from an insurance company.”
The more detailed explanation that Evan links to is here. “In either case, Cruz had nothing to do with the creation of the fund or how much it pays victims. He was not one of the attorneys listed on the agreement. If anything, Cruz’s only involvement in the case would have resulted in more—not less—money for victims.”
Even Paul Burka can see the writing on the wall: “Nothing Dewhurst has tried has changed the dynamics of the race at all. If anything, the millions Dewhurst has spent on TV have hurt his own campaign. The China ad and the Kids for Cash scandal ad have not achieved anything. Dewhurst’s array of consultants has never been able to lay a glove on Cruz.”
Politico joins the list of those expecting a Cruz victory. “We’re on the 2-yard line. We have marched the entire length of the field. We started out up in the hot dog stands.”
Final day of campaigning: “At Dewhurst’s stopover at an Austin Chick-fil-A franchise early Monday, about a dozen supporters waved Dewhurst placards—and close to half of them were lobbyists.”
Q: So Dewhurst, are any of your staffers working for the SuperPACs slamming Ted Cruz? A: No. Q: Former staffers? A: Uh….
Fox Houston: “Early voting numbers show Cruz ahead by 10 percent.” I assume they mean the PPP poll, as they usually don’t release actual vote totals until the polls have closed on election night.
Dewhurst is still campaigning. Here’s his last-minute-push video with Rick Perry:
At least it’s refreshingly free of dishonest slime attacks against Cruz…
And yes, the Democrats are having their own runoff tomorrow. The Texas Democratic Party all but says “Screw neutrality, you better vote for Paul Sadler if you know what’s good for you.” They also commit a factual error. As readers of this blog know, Grady Yarbrough has been endorsed by a newspaper, The Austin Villager. Since the The Austin Villager is a black community newspaper, if a Republican omitted them, you know they would be accused of racism…
Yarbrough comes out for illegal alien amnesty, which might be a we tad inconsistent with his previous stance on putting the Berlin Wall on the border.
If Yarbrough does win the Democratic runoff, $20 says Sadler and the TDP try to get him thrown off the ballot for not filing his FEC forms…
All sorts of stories bubbling away in various states of completion. In the meantime, here’s a nice Saturday LinkSwarm that includes some (but not all) of the links I’ve put up on my twitter feed:
We’ve gotten use to Democratic office holders in Texas switching to the Republican Party, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen all the Democratic officeholders in a county switch at the same time, which is what just happened in Throckmorton County, including the sheriff, county judge, clerk, treasurer, justice of the peace and three commissioners.
Texas Democrats give up on Texas Democrats. “Of the $21 million Texas Democrats have given to candidates running for federal office, Super PACs and party political committees in the 2012 election, only $4.8 million has gone to candidates from Texas.”
Today’s Texas Democrat under federal investigation for corruptions comes to you from Cameron County DA Armando Villalobos, who’s also running for U.S. congress in the newly created 34th congressional district.
As fewer and fewer Democrats were elected in Texas over the past two decades, liberals would console themselves with the thought that demographics were on their side. “Just you wait, Hispanics will turn Texas back into a blue state.” Indeed, the likes of Ruy Teixeira considered the triumph of Democrats riding an ever-rising tides of Hispanic immigrants to permanent majority party status all but inevitable.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Blue State Nirvana: Illegal alien amnesty failed, even with Democratic majorities in both House and Senate, depriving Democrats of what they assumed were certain Democratic voters. And thanks to both the recession and various state-level illegal alien measures in places like Arizona and Alabama, illegal aliens are now leaving the United States faster than they’re entering it.
Now fast forward to 2012. After the Ricardo Sanchez’s withdrawl from the senate campaign, there are now absolutely no Hispanic Democrats running a statewide race in Texas this year. As horrible and lackluster a candidate as Sanchez was, at least you could see him protecting down-ballot races. But now Republicans will have at least one Hispanic (incumbent Judge Elsa Alcala of Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Place 8) and as many as three (including incumbent Judge David Medina in Texas Supreme Court Place 4), one of whom, Ted Cruz, could be the top statewide name on the ballot.
Hell, even the Libertarians (Texas Railroad Commission Place 2) and the Greens (U.S. Senate) managed to find Hispanic candidates to run statewide. That’s a major Hispandering failure for the Texas Democratic Party. And to add insult to injury, by failing to run a candidate for Railroad Commission Place 2, where the Greens do have a candidate, Democrats have pretty much ensured that Greens will continue to qualify for automatic ballot access (and thus continue to leach liberal votes away from them).
In an ideal world, people would choose all their candidates based on the content of their character, not the color of their skin. In the real world, ethnic identification does affect voting patterns. Even a few percentage points of Hispanic voters crossing the aisle to vote for Cruz rather than straight-ticket Democratic might be enough for Republicans to pick up a handful of down ballot races.
And that dream of a Blue State Texas grows still more distant.
Now that all the post-redistricting filings have been finalized, I thought I would take a look at Texas U.S. congressional races to see where either the Republican or the Democratic party has failed to field a candidate. While districts are usually drawn to protect incumbents and minimize the chances of the out-of-power party, it’s usually best to contest all possible races, for a variety of reasons:
You can’t beat something with nothing.
It helps tie down time, money and effort that could otherwise be shifted to other races.
It helps down-ballot races by drawing voters to the polls.
It offers a chance for Republicans to get their message of limited government, lower taxes and greater freedom out to people who might not otherwise hear it, and possibly make some converts in the process (the parable of the sower).
Stuff happens. Sudden, unexpected twists of fate can play out at any moment. Incumbents get caught stuffing bribe money into their freezer or consorting with prostitutes. Planes crash. And there’s always the possibility of someone being caught in bed with a dead woman or a live goat.
Unexpected opportunities arise, but you can’t take advantage of them if you don’t have a candidate in place.
With that in mind, let’s see how well Republicans and Democrats have done in finding candidates for all 36 Texas congressional races:
U.S. Congressional Races Where Democrats Failed to Field a Candidate
U.S. Representative District 2: Republican Incumbent Ted Poe
U.S. Representative District 3: Republican Incumbent Sam Johnson
U.S. Representative District 4: Republican Incumbent Ralph Hall
U.S. Representative District 13: Republican Incumbent Mac Thornberry
U.S. Representative District 17: Republican Incumbent Bill Flores (in a seat that was held by Democrat Chet Edwards until 2010!)
U.S. Representative District 19: Republican Incumbent Randy Neugebauer
U.S. Representative District 25: Open seat, formerly Lloyd Dogget’s until he moved to the newly created 35th District following redistricting. No less than 12 Republicans have filed for this seat (including former Senate candidates Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and Charles Holcomb). 56% of the newly reformulated 25th District’s residents voted for McCain in 2008; that’s solidly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican. But not one Democrat bothered to run…
So that’s seven U.S. Congressional races where Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Chair for Recruiting and Candidate Services Allyson Schwartz, and, well, whoever the hell it is at The Texas Democratic Party in charge of recruiting candidates, were unable to find a single person out of approximately 688,488 citizens in each of those districts to run for the United States House of Representatives. Say what you want about Alvin Greene running for Senator in South Carolina, but at least he showed up, which Texas Democrats couldn’t even manage to do in almost one-fifth of U.S. Congressional races this year.
By contrast, Republicans only fell down on the job in one congressional district:
U.S. Congressional Race Where Republicans Failed to Field a Candidate
U.S. Representative District 29: Democratic incumbent Gene Green gets a pass. In a district that went 62% for Obama, any Republican was going to have an uphill race. But given that there are five districts even more heavily Democratic (the 9th, 16th, 18th, 33rd, and 35th) where Republicans fielded a candidate, this seems like a lost opportunity, especially for a Republican Hispanic candidate in a Hispanic district headed by an old white guy. (Granted, this didn’t work for Roy Morales in 2010, but I would have preferred that Morales file again and run a token campaign over no one running at all.)
All in all this is good news for Republicans. If I were a Democrat, I’d be mad at how thoroughly the state and national party fell down on the job of recruiting candidates.
A suggestion: All six Republican incumbents who haven’t drawn an opponent should each hold a fundraiser for Republican Incumbent Francisco “Quico” Canseco, who figures to have the toughest race of any incumbent this time around.
The Right Side of Austin offers up reassurance for those anxious over the fact they haven’t received their voter registration cards: Relax.
Because Democrats and liberal special interest groups like LULAC and the NAACP want to achieve in courts what they couldn’t at the ballot box, voter registration cards can’t be sent out until the legal redistricting battle has been settled. But if you were a registered voter last year, your new voter registration card will automatically be mailed out once the redistricting fight is settled.
So if you’ve been worrying, don’t. Once a date for the primary is set, everything should take care of itself…
I just got off the phone with newly-filed Texas Democratic senate candidate Jason A. Gibson. (I called when his law firm’s email bounced for some reason.) He says his website, www.jasongibson2012.com, will be up live in a day or two.
I asked him why he was running. He said he was “tired of Washington being dysfunctional” and “tired of being on the sidelines.” He also said “I get things done.”
He says his family has a long history in the Democratic Party, and that his grandfather a union organizer. However, when I noted that my blog was on the conservative side of the spectrum, he mentioned support for two policies not often voiced among modern Democratic candidates: lower taxes and the right to bear arms. Indeed, he said he was a Texas CHL holder, which must surely be an uncommon thing among Democrats these days.
There was a time, of course, when the Texas Democratic Party had numerous conservative politicians among their ranks. But by the 1980s, the party that had once been home to Allan Shivers and John Connally found itself to be captive to the ideological likes of Jim Hightower and Lloyd Doggett, causing the exodus of conservative Democrats like Phil Gramm, Kent Hance and Rick Perry to the Republican Party, which goes a long way toward explaining why it’s been over a decade since the Democrats held a single statewide office in Texas. The majority of Democratic partisans at both the state and national level have nothing but contempt for “Blue Dog Democrats,” and I doubt Gibson can buck the trend.