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Followup on Kerasal Foot Cream

Saturday, February 27th, 2021

In my cheap prepper piece, I noted that I was using Eucerin Intensive Repair Foot Creme for foot pain brought about by the cold, but that I had Kerasal Intensive Foot Repair on order for the same issue.

Well, I’ve finally gotten in the Kerasal, and while I’m not having the cold-related foot pain anymore, Kerasal does a much better job repairing dry, cracked foot skin. A few years ago a podiatrist had said that it was like “a miracle drug” and now I can see why. The only drawback is that it’s a Vaseline-like jelly, and can stain your socks if you pull them up right after putting it on, so be sure to have a towel nearby to wipe off the excess after application. But if you have cracked feet, you should definitely pick some up.

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Prepper Paul Martin’s After Action Report on the Texas Winter Storm

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2021

Paul Martin, a much more serious prepper than I, has an after action report on what went right and wrong in his own disaster preparations. Following winterization checklists and having good gear on hand were among the successes. On the other side of the ledger:

  • I need a better cold weather management plan for the tankless water heaters. This was our weakest point in our house. The drain lines would freeze up, requiring me to go out at all hours with a heat gun to thaw them out to get them back on line and to prevent damage. I was up between 3AM and 4 AM on the coldest nights, outside in the elements (temps between 10 to 15 degrees), working on them. Not fun.
  • I should have started working the checklist items sooner than I did. My original strategy was to do a few items on the list every night until the big event on Sunday night/Monday morning, when the snow fell and the temps really dropped. The problem came when the first ice storm on Thursday night/Friday morning took out a bunch of limbs around the house, requiring me to spend several hours cleaning that up instead of preparing for the bigger storm that was coming. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have burned a day of PTO and just done everything in the milder temps and when there was still food and ample supplies at the stores.
  • I should have cleaned out my gutters before the storm started. That’s going on the checklist. Leaves from the winds filled the gutters in the first storm, which then got backed up with rain, which in turn froze in place. Not good. Cleaner gutters drain quicker and collect less ice.

    • Plus some sobering thoughts:

    You’ve now seen our grid under stress. Cold snaps in 2011, 2018 and the worst cold on record in 2021, along with the boil water order of 2018, provide real world examples of what the local grid will do when it’s stressed. You are now on notice of the grid’s limitations. What if the next emergency isn’t in the cold, but in the 105 degree heat of a Texas summer? And what if the power is off for a week or more? What if the failure is caused by a cyber attack which not only shuts off the power but causes physical damage to the grid? By the way, don’t think this can’t happen:

    Texas’ power grid was “seconds and minutes” away from a catastrophic failure that could have left Texans in the dark for months, officials with the entity that operates the grid said Thursday.

    ******

    While generators rapidly dropped off the grid as the weather worsened, operators monitored the difference between the supply of power on the grid and the demand for that power. As supply dwindled and demand grew, the margin narrowed to more and more dangerous levels, forcing grid operators to enact emergency protocols to either increase supply or decrease demand.

    The worst case scenario: Demand for power outstrips the supply of power generation available on the grid, causing equipment to catch fire, substations to blow and power lines to go down.

    If the grid had gone totally offline, the physical damage to power infrastructure from overwhelming the grid could have taken months to repair, said Bernadette Johnson, senior vice president of power and renewables at Enverus, an oil and gas software and information company headquartered in Austin.

    Things could have been much worse. They could be much worse in a future outage. Is your family ready for that? If your family isn’t ready, you will then be relying upon not only the grid operators but also your local elected officials to provide you with answers and solutions. Some of you may not be very keen on doing so after all of this.

    And that’s where much of our community’s struggle lies. As a community, we need to make sure that while we’re holding our government accountable that we’re also holding ourselves accountable. I get it: not everyone can afford to have a whole house generator. But a lot of people can afford less expensive options that would have made their lives a lot more comfortable and safer.

    Hence my cheap prepper supply list.

    I plead with you: make preparedness a priority for your family. If it means you have to take a smaller vacation or put off buying a nicer car for a year or so, do it. Many people can implement the step by step preparedness plan I have created in the Ready Citizen Manual which is absolutely free, which will quickly get you to a base line level of readiness enabling you to handle what we just went through.

    I don’t see things getting easier in the days ahead. Our economy is showing worrisome signs, our communities are still seething from the last election with no sign of abatement, our grids are vulnerable, and we’re still dealing with a pandemic for the foreseeable future. We now see how uncomfortable things can get. Take steps now to protect yourself and family from enduring that again.

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    Posted in Austin, Texas | 1 Comment »

    The Cheap Prepper’s Guide for Cold Weather And Other Disasters

    Monday, February 22nd, 2021

    The recent Texas ice storm and power outage crisis once again emphasized how important it is to prepare for such events.

    There are some people who put significant time, effort and money into preparing. I am not one of them. What I am is a cheap prepper who probably spends about $20 a year on prepping supplies. But I found that just doing that made me much better prepared for surviving the ice storm/energy outage/boil notice event than other people. So here’s a brief guide to cheaply prepping for a range of disasters.

    I’ve included Amazon links, but for some items (like batteries), Sam’s or Lowe’s tends to offer better prices. Batteries are among good that can be purchased tax free during the Texas emergency preparation sales tax holiday, which is April 24-26 this year, along with smoke and CO detectors, fire extinguishers and first aid kits.

    The Basics

    These are just all-purpose tools everyone should already have, listed here for completeness sake.

  • First aid kit: There are a lot of different makes and models of these, and this is another one where Sam’s offers a kit that’s a bit cheaper than this one. Has a little bit of everything. A good thing to keep in your car for emergencies.
  • Smoke alarm: Everyone should already have these, but if you don’t, or want more, these are cheap, and it has a silence button so you can put it in your kitchen. This batch seems to be made in Mexico, but First Alert also makes stuff in China, so caveat emptor.
  • Carbon Monoxide detector. Doean’t say but I suspect it’s another made-in-China item. There are some combination carbon monoxide/smoke detectors, but I think you want to avoid the possibility of a single point of failure there.
  • Fire Extinguisher: Every home should have at least one, and make sure it’s not expired. This is what I have (I think it’s made in Mexico), but fortunately I’ve never had to use it.
  • Water leak detector: A lot of people don’t have these, but I consider them essential basic gear, as they can save you hundreds or thousands of dollars in water damage. I had one of mine go off a week before the ice storm hit because a shutoff valve I had closed to plunge an overflowing toilet had started leaking. Usual made in China caveats apply, but it’s very simple tech (two parallel wires on the exterior that water closes the circuit and sets off when wet). That link goes to a 5-pack, because I recommend putting one behind every toilet, under every sink you use, under your water heater, and next to your washing machine (I’ve had mine start rocking for an unbalanced load that pulled the drain hose loose). (There’s an even cheaper five pack from another manufacturer (also made in China) that I have no experience with.)
  • Speaking of plunging toilets, I imagine everyone already has a plunger, but if you don’t, here’s one, and you might consider one for each bathroom, or at least each floor. Also, the black bell shaped ones are a lot more effective than the small old red ones.
  • Speaking of things everyone should already have more of, everyone needs flashlights. I have an old bulb-type Maglite, but here’s a pretty close equivalent with LEDs. As a bonus, it’s also heavy enough to conk someone out. I have flashlights in my bedroom, my kitchen and in my car’s glovebox. The highest rated flashlight on Amazon is the Streamlight 75458 Stinger DS, which is about four times as expensive as the Maglite. I assume it’s brighter and with a longer life, and maybe you have a use case that justifies the cost. And if you have a flashlight, chances are you’ll also need…
  • Batteries. The Maglite takes D-Cells, and you’re going to want, at a minimum, enough to reload every flashlight twice, which should be enough to get you through a couple of evenings of power outages. Check your flashlights every six months when you check your smoke and CO detectors. Speaking of which, those and the water leak detectors take 9 volt batteries, and you want enough around to be able to change out every battery in your detectors as needed. Those links go to Duracells, which I’ve been pretty happy with.
  • Car jump starter: Much better than jumper cables, and can save you money when you have a dead battery, or beacuse it’s just not cranking in the cold.
  • Water shut off tool. The toilet valve problem made me keenly aware that I did not have the specific house water shutoff valve tool, so I went ahead and ordered this one, which also has a gas shutoff tool. You need one of these for the same reason you need a water leak detector, i.e. it will greatly limit damage before the plumber gets there.
  • Sawyer Products Water Filtration System: Austin is still under a boil notice, and the Sawyer system (which I bought the last time Austin was under a boil notice) is Good Enough, even if it is a slight pain to fill and squeeze the bag enough times for my dogs and I to drink (but still less of a pain that boiling water and waiting for it to cool).
  • Duct tape is useful to have year-round, but especially during an emergency, to patch a small leak or keep something together until the emergency is over and you can replace it. Link goes to 3M all-weather duct tape, which is better than the generic stuff for outside tasks, like sealing around the edge of a faucet cover.

    • Cold Weather

    Here are some specific prep items for cold weather:

  • Faucet Covers. If you’re a homeowner, you probably already have those, but if not, here they are, and they seem to work better than a rag or dripping the faucet, and neither of my faucets busted in the ice storm. That link goes to the cheap Styrofoam version, but these plastic ones look a bit bigger and stronger.
  • O’Keeffe’s Working Hands hand cream: I walk my dogs 2-3 times a day pretty much every single day of the year, and I found my hands getting cracked and raw in the cold, even through gloves. O’Keeffe’s Working Hands fixed the problem. I frequently give this stuff out as Christmas gifts.
  • Carmex lip balm. A small, cheap jar that solves the chapped lips problem in winter. I know some people prefer Chapstick, but to me the main result of using Chapstick is that 30 minutes later you fell a need to use more Chapstick.
  • Eucerin Intensive Repair Foot Creme: For some reason, my feet were really hurting after a few days of walking around in the cold. This seems to have fixed the problem. A podiatrist had previously recommended Kerasal Intensive Foot Repair for the same problem, and I have some of that on order, but it’s considerably pricier per ounce, and I couldn’t find any locally.
  • De-icing spray. You can stand there for 15 minutes ineffectually scraping your frozen windows like William H. Macy in Fargo, or you can keep a bottle of this in your trunk.

    • I think I’ve covered the basics, and I’m not tackling things like food, clothing, generators, etc. Feel free to add anything I missed in the comments.

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    Posted in Texas | 24 Comments »

    Olive Garden is a Bad Prepping Strategy

    Tuesday, August 13th, 2019

    The day after the clown car update is bad for deep insights, so instead let me set this strawman blazing.

    The Olive Garden is offering a lifetime endless pasta bowl pass for $500. (Or rather, they’re offering 50 of these, so it’s a gimmick for free publicity…

    …rather than a real offer. But let’s pretend it’s a real offer.)

    Some Twitter users suggested that this is a great lifetime hedge against starvation.

    Even if it weren’t just a gimmick, this would be a bad prepping strategy:

  • A lifetime eating pass sounds like the sort of last-gasp attempt of a dying restaurant chain to stay solvent. They might not stay around long enough for you to get your $500 worth.
  • The price includes breadsticks and salads, but not beverages or tips, which increases your costs. Sure, you can get away with water and no tip for a while, but pretty soon it’s going to be “Oh God, here comes LardButt McCheapSkate again!” and the waitresses start saving the day-old pasta in the fridge just for you.
  • In a true it-hits-the-fan apocalypse, do you really think a midprice family chain is what you want to bet on for survival? How do you get past the zombies? Do you suppose the corporate resupply trucks are going to make it past the roving apocalyptic biker gangs outfitted in vaguely 1980s cyberpunk cliche gear? Likewise, do you think your lifetime all-you-can-eat card will really do you any good in the post-money barter wasteland? You’ll be lucky if they don’t size you up to serve as the next day’s Long Pig Special.
  • You can get 6 pounds of Angel Hair Pasta for just under $6 at Sam’s. That’s 500 pounds of pasta for what you’d pay for the Olive Garden Platinum Club. (Of course, for a real hits-the-fan scenario, you’ll need a solar oven, as shown here.) And beans and rice provide even cheaper bulk staple hedges against starvation.
  • Finally, you have to face the dreaded fact: It’s the Olive Garden. It’s a perfectly acceptable place to eat, especially if you’re going out with old people who can’t eat spicy food, but you can certainly do better.

    • If prepping is out, is there anyone who would actually benefit from this deal? I can think of a few cases:

  • You’re just a horrific glutton with low standards.
  • You want to commit passive-aggressive suicide by clogged arteries.
  • You’re one of those annoying people who can eat like a horse and never gain an ounce.
  • You’re a full-time university student, there’s an Olive Garden within walking distance, and $500 is less than two semesters of the dorm meal plan.
  • You’re a regular marathon/triathlon competitor, and you do lots of carb loading every week.

    • That’s pretty much it.

    I hope you’ve enjoyed this episode of Burning Strawman Theater! Tune in next week when we discuss why radioactive mutants won’t take your Bitcoin.

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    The Math Behind Prepping

    Sunday, April 29th, 2018

    If you think that all this talk of violent revolution or civil war in the United States is nonsense, this piece, from a flood hydrologist, makes a compelling mathematical case that you should think again.

    While we don’t have any good sources of data on how often zombies take over the world, we definitely have good sources of data on when the group of people on the piece of dirt we currently call the USA attempt to overthrow the ruling government. It’s happened twice since colonization. The first one, the American Revolution, succeeded. The second one, the Civil War, failed. But they are both qualifying events. Now we can do math.

    Equations omitted.

    Stepping through this, the average year for colony establishment is 1678, which is 340 years ago. Two qualifying events in 340 years is a 0.5882% annual chance of nationwide violent revolution against the ruling government. Do the same math as we did above with the floodplains, in precisely the same way, and we see a 37% chance that any American of average life expectancy will experience at least one nationwide violent revolution.

    This is a bigger chance than your floodplain-bound home getting flooded out during your mortgage.

    Snip.

    Two instances in 340 years is not a great data pool to work with, I will grant, but if you take a grab sample of other countries around the world you’ll see this could be much worse. Since our 1678 benchmark, Russia has had a two world wars, a civil war, a revolution, and at least half a dozen uprisings, depending on how you want to count them. Depending on when you start the clock, France had a 30-year war, a 7-year war, a particularly nasty revolution, a counter-revolution, this Napoleon thing, and a couple of World Wars tacked on the end. China, North Korea, Vietnam, and basically most of the Pacific Rim has had some flavor of violent revolution in the last 100 years, sometimes more than one. Africa is … hard to even conceive where to start and end the data points. Most Central and South American countries have had significant qualifying events in the time span. And honestly, if we were to widen our analysis to not only include nationwide violent civil wars, but also instances of slavery, internment, and taking of native lands, our own numbers go way up.

    Or we could look at a modern snapshot. Counting places like the Vatican, we have 195 countries on the planet today. Somalia is basically in perpetual war, Syria is a hot mess with no signs of mitigation any time soon, Iraq is sketchy, Afghanistan has been in some flavor of civil war or occupation my entire life outside the salad days of the Taliban, and Libya is in such deep throes of anarchy that they’ve reinvented the black slave trade. Venezuela. Yemen. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be a qualifying event depending on how you define it. And again, Africa is … hard to even conceive where to start. Spitballing, perhaps 3% of the nations in the world today are in some version of violent revolt against the ruling government, some worse than others. There’s at least some case to be made that our 0.5% annual chance estimate may be low, if we’re looking at comps.

    Or we could look at a broader historical brush. Since the fall of Constantinople in 1453, there have been 465 sovereign nations which no longer exist, and that doesn’t even count colonies, secessionist states, or annexed countries. Even if we presume that half of these nation state transitions were peaceful, which is probably a vast over-estimation, that’s still an average of one violent state transition every 2.43 years.

    If we just look at raw dialectic alone we reach dismal conclusions. “Do you think the United States will exist forever and until the end of time?” Clearly any reasonable answer must be “no.” So at that point, we’re not talking “if,” but “when.” If you don’t believe my presumed probability, cook up your own, based on whatever givens and data pool you’d like, and plug it in. The equations are right up there. Steelman my argument in whatever way you like, and the answer will probably still scare you.

    Plus some bits on Silicon Valley entrepreneurs building bunkers, a zombie apocalypse as a good proxy for real disasters, and the AR-15. Read the whole thing.

    (Hat tip: Instapundit via Michele Frost on Twitter.)

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    Posted in Guns | No Comments »

    Texas Emergency Prep Supplies Sales Tax Holiday

    Saturday, April 28th, 2018

    This weekend is the Emergency Preparation Supplies Sales Tax Holiday the Texas legislature passed last year.

    The following items qualify:

    Less than $3000

  • Portable generators

    • Less than $300

  • Hurricane shutters
  • Emergency ladders

    • Less than $75

  • Batteries, single or multipack (AAA cell, AA cell, C cell, D cell, 6 volt or 9 volt)
  • First aid kits
  • Fuel containers
  • Ground anchor systems and tie-down kits
  • Hatchets
  • Axes
  • Mobile telephone batteries and mobile telephone chargers
  • Nonelectric coolers and ice chests for food storage (but don’t buy Yeti coolers)
  • Nonelectric can openers
  • Portable self-powered light sources (hand cranked flashlights)
  • Portable self-powered radios, including two-way and weather band radios
  • Reusable and artificial ice products
  • Smoke detectors, fire extinguishers and carbon monoxide detectors
  • Tarps and other plastic sheeting

    • The sales tax holiday lasts through Monday. At the very least make this your weekend to buy batteries…

    (Hat tip: Dwight for the reminder.)

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    Posted in Texas | 1 Comment »

    Hunting/Emergency Prep Sales Tax Bills Currently in Texas Legislature

    Wednesday, May 13th, 2015

    There are at least two bills establishing sales tax holidays for firearms, hunting supplies (“ammunition, archery equipment, hunting blinds and stands, hunting decoys, firearm cleaning supplies, gun cases and gun safes, hunting optics, and hunting safety equipment”) and emergency preparation supplies working their way through the Texas legislature.

    House Bill 849 is the NRA-blessed bill that “establishes two state sales tax-free holidays for Texas sportsmen during the last weekend in August and October, before dove and deer seasons, respectively.”

    SB 904 would create a similar sales tax holiday in April on all the following items:

    (1) a portable generator used to provide light or communications or to preserve perishable food in the event of a power outage, the sales price of which is less than $3,000;
    (2) an item listed in this subdivision, the sales price of which is less than $300:
    (A) a storm protection device manufactured, rated, and marketed specifically to prevent damage to a glazed or non-glazed opening during a storm; or
    (B) an emergency or rescue ladder; or
    (3) an item listed in this subdivision, the sales price of which is less than $75:
    (A) a reusable or artificial ice product;
    (B) a portable, self-powered light source;
    (C) a gasoline or diesel fuel container;
    (D) a AAA cell, AA cell, C cell, D cell, 6 volt, or 9 volt battery, or a package containing more than one battery, other than an automobile or boat battery;
    (E) a nonelectric cooler or ice chest for food storage;
    (F) a tarpaulin or other flexible waterproof sheeting;
    (G) a ground anchor system or tie-down kit;
    (H) a mobile telephone battery or battery charger;
    (I) a portable self-powered radio, including a two-way radio or weatherband radio;
    (J) a fire extinguisher, smoke detector, or carbon monoxide detector;
    (K) a hatchet or axe;
    (L) a self-contained first aid kit; or
    (M) a nonelectric can opener.

    I reached out to Paul Martin, my CHL instructor and a guy who teaches an emergency preparation class every year, who’s been tracking the legislation closely, and he offered the following explanation of the various bills:

    SB 904 would make certain disaster supplies eligible for purchase sales tax-free during the last full weekend in April. The bill was not amended in the Senate, so if it passes cleanly in the house, it will be ready to go to the Governor for his signature. Three other states currently have emergency supplies sales tax holiday weekends. Until this year, Florida had one as well, but I don’t believe their legislature reauthorized it for this year.

    SB 228 is the identical Senate version of HB 849. These bills would create a sales tax holiday weekend for firearms and hunting supplies. In the bill, “hunting supplies” is defined as ammunition, archery equipment, hunting blinds and stands, hunting decoys, firearm cleaning supplies, gun cases and gun safes, hunting optics, and hunting safety equipment. Both SB 228 and HB 849 have been passed by the respective houses. I’ve not done the deep drill down to see if they are identical now, as both were amended during the process. If they are identical now, the bill can be presented for Gov. Abbott’s signature. If they aren’t, they will be sent to a conference committee to work out the details and then re-presented to both houses for a final vote. Louisiana has a firearms and hunting supplies sales tax-free weekend; there was anecdotal evidence provided during the Senate proceedings that Texans were going to Louisiana to take advantage of their sales tax holiday weekend.

    For a basis of comparison, the Senate voted out on third reading SB 228 creating a sales tax holiday weekend for hunting supplies. The bill passed on a 21-10 vote. The fiscal note on that bill shows a negative impact of 11.1M in the next two years, and 35M through 2020. When we say “negative impact,” we are saying that it will result in a loss of tax revenue to the state. SB 904 has a 2.25M negative impact through 2017, and 6M over the next 5 years.

    Both bills seem to enjoy broad support, so you might want to start drawing up your wish list…

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    Posted in Guns, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Cheap Prep/Survivalist Update

    Sunday, January 22nd, 2012

    Over the last several years, I’ve been build it up some disaster preparedness on the cheap. Like, $50 a year cheap. I can spend a bit more now, but I’m still in the “hey, flashlights and extra water are a good thing to have around” camp rather than the “fortified compound in the hills with my own power supply and five years of canned food” camp. I’m aiming at getting ready for a “3 weeks without power” type event, rather than the full-bore zombie apocalypse. Heck, I don’t even think the economy is going to collapse completely when the Euro blows up, we’re just going to be in store for some Carter-era inflation for years on end.

    For fellow cheap preppers/survivalists, I just wanted to point out that Sam’s currently has a two pack of the Kidde 3-pound fire-extinguishers (the metal canister type, not the plastic ones) for $14. That’s less than I think I paid for a single one a few years ago. Now I’ve got one on each floor and in the car. I wouldn’t try to put out a wildfire with it, but having one around could stop a small stove or fireplace fire from spreading.

    Anyway, it strikes me as a good enough deal that you might want to take advantage of it if you have a Sam’s card…

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