Still waiting on Q4 fundraising numbers from the candidates. In previous quarters they came out around the 15th of the month after the deadline, but maybe the deadline is longer for End-of-Year reports.
Another blogger grading the TPPF debate. He ranks Tom Leppert first (followed by Ted Cruz, Craig James and Glenn Addison) and David Dewhurst last. However, the Leppert campaign will find no comfort in his analysis of their candidate: “Once Texans take a closer look at his actual record (and how deeply he appears to be in the back pocket of T. Boone Pickens), I think he’ll be reduced to what he actually is: the least conservative and—other than Craig James —the least qualified candidate running for KBH’s vacated seat.” Ouch! But his rating of Dewhurst is even worse: “There is a reason that Dewhurst has been ducking Ted Cruz and refusing to attend any of the previous debates: he’s really, really bad at it…Remember the cartoon Droopy the dog? That’s pretty much exactly what Dewhurst sounded like on stage on Thursday evening. No energy, seemed lost and confused at times. Halting, slow speech.” Double ouch!
In The Dallas Morning News, Robert T. Garrett brings newspaper readers up to speed on the Huckabee/DeMint stuff I covered one to three weeks ago. Though he does manage to add some sneering liberal condescension at Fox News.
The American Jewish Committee and the World Affairs Council of Houston are sponsoring a foreign policy Senate candidate debate on Monday, January 23, at the Omni Houston Hotel. According to an email from the AJC, “12 of the 16 [candidates] have confirmed,” though Dewhurst and Democrat Paul Sadler were not among them.
Speaking of which, maybe I just wasn’t paying attention heretofore, but I don’t recall nearly this many debates for statewide elections in previous cycles. I mean, we’ve already had three times as many Texas Republican Senate debates as there were Lincoln-Douglas debates in 1858! Thanks to the Tea Party, Texans are really enjoying a golden age of grassroots democracy…
Dewhurst gets the endorsement of Michael Reagan, AKA “Ronald Reagan’s non-goofy son.” That won’t hurt him, but I also don’t see it swaying any undecided voters.
Glenn Addison gets some attention from his local Community Impact newspaper. (For those unfamiliar with the, Community Impact newspapers are very local (I get the one for NW Austin) free monthly newspapers delivered by mail. I generally find the quality of their stories better than the Statesman.)
He also gets compared to Ron Paul by KVUE. The problem with almost right analysis of this sort is that it would probably take way too much time to list the salient differences between the two than it’s worth expending…
David Dewhurst appeared on the Mark Davis show on WBAP:
I was busy with a family even over the weekend, so I haven’t had a chance to sit down and watch the debate all the way through. But I’ll go ahead and put it up for others to take a gander at (Hat tip: The Right Side of Austin). Be aware that the debate doesn’t actually start until over an hour into the video. I’ve heard of long intros, but that’s ridiculous…
The Cruz campaign sent out a list of links, and rather than link all of them and claim them as my own, I’ll just direct you thataway.
One link they didn’t send out was this review over at Big Jolly Politics, where he gave James, Addison and Dewhurst As, Cruz a B, and Leppert a C.
Kathleen McKinney ranked it Cruz first, James second, and Leppert last (“Not a lot of flash there”), though her overall impressions of all were positive.
I’ve been busy hosting a family even this weekend, so I haven’t been able to do a post on Thursday’s debate. But I wanted to point out the results of the straw poll at Saddle Up Houston (which, with 3,321 voters, had a lot more attendees than I suspected).
Keep in mind all the usual caveats that apply to straw polls: They don’t tend to mean a lot when it comes to real voting.
President
Ron Paul: 54.4%
Rick Santorum: 15.6%
Rick Perry: 13.3%
Newt Gingrich: 11.9%
Mitt Romney: 4.2%
Jon Huntsman: 0.5%
Charles “Buddy” Roemer: 0.0% (Jeeze, how do you not manage to snag even .1% of the vote?)
That’s an excellent showing for Ron Paul, but Paul has consistently proven himself much more adept at winning straw polls than primaries. Caveats aside, it’s a bad showing for Rick Perry (if you can’t win a straw poll in your own state, where can you win it?) and Mitt Romney (the frontrunner should get more than 4.2% of the vote, even against two favorite sons).
Senate
Ted Cruz: 49.1%
Craig James: 12.9%
Glenn Addison: 12.0%
Tom Leppert: 9.1%
Lela Pittenger: 9.1%
David Dewhurst: 7.1%
Charles Holcomb: 0.3%
“Doc Joe” Agris: 0.3%
Curt Cleaver: 0.0%
Ben Gambini: 0.0%
That’s good news for Ted Cruz, Craig James and Glenn Addison, and bad news for David Dewhurst. And even though Tom Leppert outpointed Dewhurst, he can’t feel good at merely tying Lela Pittenger, who has neither campaigned as much as him, nor spent 1/1000th of what he has. (Also, Doc Agris can’t feel good about putting up such a paltry total in his own back yard.) Gambini getting 0% isn’t a surprise, since he’s been the invisible man. Cleaver getting 0% is a bit more surprising, since he’s had at least the semblance of a campaign.
But again, these results don’t mean much, as I seriously doubt we’re going to see Craig James battle Glenn Addison for a spot in the runoff against Cruz. They do highlight an enthusiasm gap between Cruz and Dewhurst, but just how much of that gap will translate into votes remains to be seen. I don’t think we’ll get a glimpse of how the race is shaping up in the minds of actual primary voters until we see polls from some of the established polling companies like Gallup, Zogby and Rasmussen.
Here’s an updated list of the declared 2012 Texas senate candidate’s websites, along with any subsidiary pages that change frequently (in-the-news, press releases, etc.), along with their Facebook pages, Twitter feeds, and FEC fundraising report pages, plus any additional pages worth noting. (For example, Tom Leppert’s website provides links to his LinkedIn page, and his YouTube and Flickr streams, so I have included those here.) I’ve also tried to be flexible; Ted Cruz doesn’t have links for separate YouTube or Flickr sites, so I’ve included similar pages on his campaign page.
Consider this a one-stop research stop for lazy efficient journalists and bloggers (as well as a handy cheat-cheat for myself, since I’ve been doing extensive coverage of the race).
Where candidates have sign-up splash screens, I have omitted those to go straight to the website (or, for Facebook links, their wall).
Websites for 2012 Republican Senate Runoff Candidates
Very soon the candidates should be crowing about how much money they pulled in during Q4. In the meantime, here are few variegated updates for your political junkie pleasure:
Rick Perry gives a boost, in passing, to Dewhurst’s Senate bid in Iowa, with Dewhurst and other Texas officials present. It certainly won’t hurt Dewhurst’s chances, but it’s a bit short of a full-throttle endorsement.
James says he’s living on real street. “Only in politics is it possible for a former football star turned national broadcaster be able to make the claim how connected they are to ordinary people.”
KYFO in Lubbock did a poll asking people if they would vote for James in the Senate race. Right now a bracing 96% are voting no…
A not particularly insightful breakdown of the race. The Craig James-to-Jack Kemp comparison is particularly inapt; Kemp went straight from playing quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in 1969 to running for and winning a congressional seat from Buffalo in 1970. James’ last year of professional football was 1988, and being a cable sportscaster is a level of fame below even a Kardashian sister.
Democrat Paul Sadler gets more love from the Longview News-Journal. Sadler’s hometown of Henderson lies between Nacogdoches and Longview.
The Houston Chroniclealso examines Sadler’s chances. Democrats have pinned their hopes on “a former six-term Texas House member who hasn’t held office since 2003, who has little statewide name identification and whose last race was a losing effort in a runoff election for the state Senate in 2004.” Indeed. But note that writer Joe Holley is incorrect when he says that Sadler “is among six other Democratic candidates,” as there are now only five Democratic Senate candidates. However, I can’t really blame him, as the Texas Democratic Party has never actually said why Eric Roberson and John Morton no longer appear on the list of candidates, nor have they answered my query on the issue.
And here’s another article that mentions Sadler, but none of his opponents in the Democratic primary. It’s almost as if the state’s lockstep MSM outlets have already picked their preferred candidate…
EmpowerTexas will be hosting a senate debate in Austin on January 12. Participants are Cruz, Dewhurst, James, Tom Leppert and Glenn Addison (which is the right five if you’re limiting it to five).
There’s also a Saddle Up Texas Straw Poll event in Houston January 12-14. Cruz, Dewhurst, Leppert, Addison, Lela Pittenger and Dr. Joe Agris are all scheduled to attend, as is Andrew Breitbart. Call me a cynic, but when an event has a list of sponsorship opportunities but no actual sponsors 10 days before the event, as well as $45 tickets (good luck with that), my gut feeling is that the organizers are going to take a serious financial bath. (Indeed, it gives off a whiff of The Ultimate Fantasy, a legendary Star Trek convention debacle I attended which also took place in Houston…)
I try to deal with substantive issues in coverage of the race, but every now and then it’s worth noting good old-fashioned politicking. Take, for example, the way Cruz celebrates every Texas university bowl win (U of H, Baylor, A&M, Texas) on his Facebook page, including team logos. Leppert comes close, but missed the Aggies. Dewhurst doesn’t seem to discuss sports on his Facebook page, despite including the Longhorns among his likes.
Like everyone else, political wonks are taking off for Christmas, so just a few tiny bits of Senate race news:
Tom Leppert appeared on the Janet Mefferd Show:
With Ricardo Sanchez out of the race, Texas Democrats face a Latino problem.
So how do you write up a summary of the Senate race, and manage to list every Democrat in the race except Sean Hubbard, and every Republican in the race except Glenn Addison and Lela Pittenger, and misspell Curt Cleaver’s name to boot? Did the Wichita Falls Times Record News let all their fact checkers take the week off for Christmas?
Of all the declared longshots who failed to file for the race I queried as to their intentions, only Andrew Castanuela wrote to say he was pursuing a campaign as a write-in candidate, which seems a fairly futile course of action for someone whose last name is not Murkowski.
With all the coming and the going and the filing and the GLAVEN, it’s been a crazy few days keeping up with the Texas senate race. I even went back today to see if their were any stragglers who hadn’t been updated on the Republican and Democratic candidate websites yesterday. There were no additions but, interestingly, there was one subtraction (see below).
Of course, there may be another scramble when the filing period opens up again next year after a Supreme Court decision on redistricting. Keep watching the skies…
I evidently missed this back in October, but the Texas Home School Coalition PAC endorsed Ted Cruz.
Addison also resigned from the Magnolia ISD board to concentrate on his senate race. Given that he stated the board was responsible for his gray hair at one of the candidate forums, maybe it wasn’t a hard decision…
David Dewhurst scoffs at the idea that Craig James’ entry in the race will force him into a runoff. As well he should. He was already headed for a runoff.
Newly minted candidate Paul Sadler gets some love from the Houston Chronicle. Of course, saying he was a big player in state legislative issues in the 1990s is pretty much tantamount to saying “Who?”
Indeed, some are already saying that the Democratic primary is a two man race between Sadler and Jason A. Gibson, ignoring the fact that Sean Hubbard has been running for most of the year, and that Daniel Boone has the tremendous asset of being named Daniel Boone. That article also notes that Gibson is president of the Houston Trial Lawyers Association, which would suggest access to a healthy amount of campaign funding.
A bit more on Sadler, who lost a runoff election to Republican Kevin Eltife in a 2004 state senate race.
Sadler also emailed back to say that he didn’t have a website up yet. “Hopefully, within a week or so.”
One oddity: Remember former Republican turned Independent turned Democrat Eric Roberson, who showed up on the list of candidates late yesterday? Well, his name was gone today…possibly because he also shows as a candidate for Place 11 on the 5th Court of Appeals.
I’ve sent emails to Andrew Castanuela, Stanley Garza, and Virgil Bierschwale, whose names do not appear the filing lists for the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries, to ask if they’ve abandoned their campaigns. I’ll let you know when I find out.
Conversely, if Ben Gambini, John Morton, or Addie Dainell Allen are reading this, you might send a comment or email to let me know who you are and why you’re running for the senate.
First interview with Craig James about his Senate run. My apologies for the crappy WFAA flash video implementation:
Finally, for commentator “John Doe”: No, I’m not going to post an un-sourced, laundry list of lurid accusations against a candidate (not even a Democrat) from an anonymous troll. Try again when you can cite a source for your accusations.
The filing deadline for all races is coming up on Thursday. Beyond that, the biggest news is probably going on behind the scenes, as I suspect all three of the major candidates are raising money like mad in advance of the Q4 deadline, the last to be reported before the March primary.
So have Glenn Addison, Curt Clever, Charles Holcomb (as mentioned yesterday), and one Ben Gambini of Winnie (about which The Google has precious little; he might as well be Chauncey Gardener).
Still no sign of Ricardo Sanchez’s name. Two days left…
Leppert picked up the endorsements of a number of former Dallas Cowboys, including Roger Staubach (who I mentioned previously as having donated to Leppert) and Troy Aikman. Again, all those play to his Dallas base, but Staubach and Aikman’s endorsements certainly won’t hurt him in the rest of the state.
Dewhurst stated that he was willing to debate once or twice. As Texas Iconoclast noted: “How magnanimous of his highness.”
Once you get beyond the condescending opening (“Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst enters the U.S. Senate campaign with considerable cash and name recognition, but a couple of Republican challengers are nipping at his heels”), this Houston Chronicle piece is a fairly accurate distillation of the consensus wisdom on the race.
Speaking of MSM outlets, Robert T. Garrett in The Dallas Morning News has an interesting bit on Dick Armey’s FreedomWorks setting up a phone bank for Cruz. Garrett has even toned down most of his usual smug condescension…
The Texas Restaurant Association endorses Dewhurst. That link also notes that:
This endorsement follows other major Texas endorsements of Dewhurst’s candidacy in recent weeks, including the Texas Poultry Federation, three former presidents of the Texas Farm Bureau, BEEF-PAC, the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association Political Action Committee and the Texas Farm Bureau Friends of Agriculture Fund last week. David has also received endorsements from the Texas State Association of Fire Fighters, the Texas State Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police, the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas, the Texas Municipal Police Association and the Texas Department of Public Safety Officers Association PAC. Prior to those, he received endorsements Texas Right To Life PAC, pro-life leaders Kyleen Wright and Carol Everett, and the Texas Alliance for Life PAC.
Dewhurst was always going to get the lion share of the business endorsements. The pro-life endorsements I’ve covered. The police and firefighter pickups won’t hurt.
Well, there’s one group that probably won’t be endorsing Craig James if he jumps in: Texas Tech boosters. But I don’t know where the silly “killed 5 hookers” meme started.
Robert Pratt at Empower Texas is not impressed with Tom Leppert’s pledge to “get things done” in Washington. I hardly qualify as a Leppert cheerleader, but I do think they make much ado about nothing for what is essentially a rhetorical flourish.
Trailing in polls, fundraising, name recognition, and stage presence, Elizabeth Ames Jones announced she’s dropping out of the Senate race to run for the Texas Senate District 25 against incumbent Sen. Jeff Wentworth.
Setting aside of the question of why you would want to move from the Railroad Commission to the State Senate (which seems like a slight downgrade to me), the Senate District 25 race already had one Tea Party challenger to Wentworth in Donna Campbell, who may find herself financially outgunned if Jones transfers her U.S. Senate race money. (Naturally, Wenworth wants Jones to return the money.) There have been mutterings in some quarters (at least stretching back to last decade’s redistricting fight) that Wentworth is too liberal for his district. Should all three stay in, this should prove to be a very interesting primary fight.
Clearly Jones was overdue to get out of the Senate race, and had been for some time. Not only were David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz firmly established as the top two candidates, but they and Tom Leppert were all clearly outperforming Jones in every phase of the campaign. From all that I could see, Jones performed poorly at the the various candidate debates and forums and fell woefully behind in the fundraising race. I think there was a much greater possibility that Jones could have come in behind long-shot Glenn Addison in the March primary than that she could overtake Cruz or Dewhurst.
Jones was the very first candidate to declare for the U.S. Senate race, filing her paperwork way back on November 3, 2008, but never seemed to gain any traction once additional candidates jumped in after Kay Baily Hutchison announced she was retiring.
This is good news for the Ted Cruz campaign, and bad news for David Dewhurst, since it gives Cruz a clearer shot at him. Dewhurst clearly has no desire to debate Cruz one-on-one, and the more candidates in the race, the less likely it is for conservative voters to coalesce around Cruz as the anti-Dewhurst campaign.
Now that Jones is out, will Leppert bow out as well? I doubt it. Though he clearly hasn’t caught fire, Leppert has (thanks to a generous measure of self-funding) stayed on pace with the front-runners in the fundraising derby, and he’s clearly a better campaigner, and has a much better organization, than Jones. My hunch says that he stays in until March, and then comes in a distant third. But there’s still an awful lot of campaign left…
A roundup of Texas Senate Race news, some of which I would have reported sooner if my week hadn’t been so packed…
Rep. Mike McCaul passes on the race. Big news, and I think the Ted Cruz campaign is heaving a sigh of relief at not having someone as rich as David Dewhurst (but demonstrably more conservative than the Lt. Governor) in the race.
Here’s the audio for Ted Cruz’s appearance on the Mark Levin show.
Standard democratic talking points, well-spoken, but delivered in the tone of a slightly bored high school algebra teacher. Gravitas he’s got, but if this is the best he can do charisma wise, I don’t think any of the likely (or even unlikely) Republican candidates have anything to worry about. That accomplished, Sanchez seems to have gone back in hibernation for the rest of the week.
Robert T. Garrett of the The Dallas Morning News offers up a hard-hitting expose that absolutely nails Cruz…on not doing reporter’s homework for them. The upshot is that Cruz’s father was tortured by and fled the Batista regime rather than Castro’s communist regime. Did Cruz tell his story in a way that led people to believe that his father fled Castro? Yeah, he did. And that’s worth reporting. I can see doing at least a paragraph on that as part of a general article on Cruz. But it doesn’t explain why Garrett felt the need to expend 769 words explaining not that Cruz lied, but that he told an easily misinterpreted truth. Given that he hasn’t lied about anything, and has told the precise story forthrightly upon being questioned about it, it’s hard for me to work up any indignation about people misconstruing one part of a candidate’s father’s history.
Curt Cleaver raised $3,208, which is respectable for a longshot, especially considering his late start. (Psst, Curt, handy campaign tip: It actually costs you nothing to update your Facebook and Twitter pages more than once a month…)
Andrew Castanuela has raised $1,503. Coming up the rear is Beetlebaum Stanley Garza with $200…of which he’s spent $199. Got to save up for that big ad blitz…