Posts Tagged ‘Foreign Policy’

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The Case Of The Fake Filipino

Monday, July 8th, 2024

This story has a little bit of everything: Fake identities, forged passports, human trafficking, shadowy gambling associates and communist infiltrators. But mostly it’s about small Philippines town mayor Alice Guo, who actually seems to be Guo Hua Ping, a Chinese national with ties to the CCP.

  • “A Philippino mayor may actually be a Chinese woman working for the CCP.”
  • The Philippines may be onto a Chinese conspiracy so intricate and wild you’d think it was the plot to some thriller flick. I would call it Dr. Filipi-No.”
  • “Small town Filipino mayor Alice Guo was accused of being a Chinese spy.”
  • “Guo drew national attention after the police raided Zun Yuan Technology Inc., a Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator, or POGO, in her constituency of Bamban back in March.”

    I doubt this POGO is that cute.

  • “During the raid, police found several documents that tied Guo to the POGO’s operations. This led to a Senate hearing, where Guo was questioned about her involvement with the POGO and seemed unable to answer basic questions about her background.” Some of those clipped.
  • “Guo gave conflicting information about her father, Angelito Guo, whose business records identify him as Jian Zhong Guo, at one point saying he was Filipino, even though she had previously said he was Chinese.”
  • “For one, the birth certificates of Alice Guo and her two siblings show that her father, Angelito Guo, married her supposed mother, Amelia Leal, but the three certificates have three different marriage dates.” More of that sloppy CCP corner cutting on display.
  • “Buuuuut, there might not be an Amelia Leal. Investigators found no records of her birth. Leading one official from the Philippines Statistics Authority to say that it’s possible she doesn’t exist.”
  • “So who is Guo’s mother, if it’s not Amelia Leal? One candidate is a Chinese citizen named Lin Wenyi. She was listed as an incorporator of several registered companies of the mayor’s family.”
  • Guo not only listed Lin Wenyi as her mother in bank accounts, she “listed a whole bunch of names, such as ‘Winnie Leal,’ ‘Wenny Leal Lin,’ ‘Weny Lin Leal,’ ‘Winnie C. Leal’ and ‘Amelia Lim Leal.'”
  • “If Alice Guo’s real mother is Chinese, then this throws a pretty big wrench into Guo’s claim to Filipino citizenship, since the Philippines grants citizenship through the mother.”
  • “The mayor Alice Guo’s fingerprints matched that of a Chinese woman named Guo Hua Ping.”
  • “Records from the Board of Investments of the Guo family’s application for a Special Investors Resident Visa show Alice Guo, or shall I say, Guo Hua Ping, entered the Philippines on January 12, 2003 when she was 13 years old…According to those documents, rather than being born in Tarlac on July 12, 1986, Guo was actually born in Fujian, China on August 31, 1990.”
  • “According to Senator Risa Hontiveros, ‘This confirms what I have suspected all along. Mayor Alice is a fake Filipino—or should I say, Guo Hua Ping. She is a Chinese national masquerading as [a] Filipino citizen to facilitate crimes being committed by [Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators].'”
  • “The Senate probe also found that Guo allegedly faked her incorporators in the POGO Hongsheng Gaming Technology by stealing the identities of vendors at the public market in Tarlac.”
  • The Philippine’s Nationalist People’s Coalition expelled Guo from its roster. “Too much of a liar and too corrupt to be a politician? This is almost more impressive than it is nefarious.”
  • There’s also the human trafficking charges. “Guo was linked to an alleged ‘grand conspiracy to commit labor trafficking’ of around 500 foreign POGO workers who were rescued during a raid on the compound on March 13.”
  • “Now lots of POGO scam suspects are trying to flee the Philippines. Guo’s family is being subpoenaed. This includes Guo’s father, suspected biological mother, and her siblings Shiela, Seimen and Wesley Leal, along with the accountant in charge of filing documents for Guo family’s businesses.” Her business partners are also being sought.

    • One wonders how many Guo Hua Pings there are used assumed identities not just in the Philippines, but here in the U.S. How many of the Chinese nationals pouring over our southern border thanks to the Biden Administration’s open borders policies will be taking up fake American identities and positions in illegal gambling operations, fentanyl distribution, or marijuana grow operations?

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    Posted in Communism, Crime, Foreign Policy, video | 4 Comments »

    A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To Fascist France

    Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024

    So Emmanuel Macron took a look at EU election results and went “OK, I’ll throw snap elections in France to scare you away from voting for Le Pen.” French voters: “Challenge accepted.”

    France’s right-wing National Rally is expected to emerge as the single largest party in the first round of the parliamentary election. National Rally led by its new leader, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, will secure nearly 34 percent of the vote, followed by the newly formed alliance of leftist and Marxist parties, the New Popular Front, which secured 28.5 percent, polls released after Sunday vote show.

    “According to an estimate by French polling institute Ipsos Talan, the far-right National Rally party is estimated to win between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly,” the TV channel France24 reported.

    This is few seats short of the 289-mark needed to form the government in the 577-seat National Assembly parliament. National Assembly’s possible post-election coalition partner, the conservative Republicans, is set to get between 41-61 seats with 10 percent of the vote share, early polls indicate.

    The French news agency AFP, however, reported National Rally gaining majority in the first round of the vote. “The polling agencies projected this would give the RN a majority of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly after the second round and a possible absolute majority,” the news agency reported.

    Leftists and Islamists reacted to the news by doing what they do best: rioting.

    The streets of Paris became a war zone overnight Sunday as tens of thousands of left-wing rioters took to the streets in fiery opposition to the historic election victory by the country’s right-wing National Rally (NR).

    Rioters smashed storefront windows, vandalized monuments and set massive bonfires in public squares after the election results revealed the party, headed by nationalist Marine Le Pen, took 33% of the vote in the decisive first round of France’s legislative elections.

    Naturally, the French left are fighting “Fascism” by unleashing violence upon their political enemies.

    A big reason for National Rally’s popularity is their opposition to unlimited, unassimilated Muslim immigration.

    An increasing number of Europeans have at last understood that the large-scale presence of Muslims in their countries now threatens to undermine the civilization of Judeo-Christian Europe, and has already resulted in a situation that is far more unpleasant, expensive, and physically dangerous for Europe’s non-Muslims, than would be the case without that large-scale Muslim presence. And the rise of right-wing populism reflects the widespread alarm over the power waged by European political and media elites, who largely oppose restrictions on Muslim immigration. The EU is run by people who are not loyal to the ideal of the nation-state. They are international bureaucrats, able through the supra-national European Union, to impose minimum immigration quotas on its member states. This has led to much unhappiness in those states, some of which — like Hungary— are simply refusing to comply.

    For all the endless cries of “Far right, far right!” in the mainstream media, National Rally’s positions on not only immigration, but ecoskepticism and Euroskepticism seems to be shared by the majority of French, and indeed by European voters as a whole. It is only their globalist leaders who disagree.

    For another thing, Marine Le Pen publically abandoned her father’s notorious antisemitism a decade ago. That may be why French Jews are voting for National Rally.

    Some readers may be wondering what a National Rally victory will mean for NATO, as well as Ukraine’s continued resistance to Russia’s illegal war of territorial aggression. Well the dark pinks at the World Socialist Web Site have their commie knickers in a knot because Marine Le Pen supports both. “France’s neo-fascist National Rally (Rassemblement National-RN) is aligning itself with NATO’s war escalation against nuclear-armed Russia. It is abandoning its ambiguous tactical criticisms of Macron’s military policies and its campaign promise to withdraw France from NATO.”

    All good news in my book.

    The National Front under Le Pen père had a lot of worrying antisemitic and anti-American baggage. Under Le Pen fille and Bardella, it seems to have jetisoned most of that baggage, and resembles other Euroskeptic parties across the EU.

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    Posted in Elections, Foreign Policy, Jihad | 1 Comment »

    Israel Gets Medieval On Hezbollah’s Ass

    Sunday, June 16th, 2024

    Israel is among the most technologically sophisticated nations in the world, with a highly developed military technology sector, so it was a surprise to read that they’re using a medieval siege engine to fight Hezbollah.

    A short six-second video showing soldiers using what appeared to be a type of medieval trebuchet in northern Israel went viral online today, prompting questions about what the centuries-old contraption was meant to be doing while Israel is embroiled in large-scale combat operations in Gaza and trading strikes with Hezbollah at the Lebanese border.

    Here’s a Livemap snap of the Israeli-Lebanese border:

    That’s all Israeli activity, so there doesn’t seem to be a lot of “trading” going on today…

    In the video at least six soldiers can be seen standing around what appears to be a trebuchet, a type of catapult…

    No, a trebuchet is a completely different types of medieval siege engine than a catapult, using a counterweight system rather cranked tension.

    …as it launches a flaming ball over a concrete wall. The trebuchet appears to be about 12 feet tall and is on a small wheeled trailer. In the video Hebrew is heard from one of the soldiers, who seems to be in command. After one flaming ball is launched over the concrete barrier, he tells the soldiers to run and add another. One soldier holds a fire extinguisher, apparently in case of a misfire.

    As odd as it looks, Israeli media confirmed that the video was real, reporting that the IDF had said that it was a local initiative of a unit and not a tool that has come into widespread use, according to Israel’s Kan public broadcaster. It was purportedly the work of reservists stationed near the border with Lebanon, and the Jerusalem Post reported it was filmed weeks ago. The IDF did not respond to Breaking Defense’s request for comment about the video.

    A trebuchet is a relatively simple type of catapult that uses a long arm with a heavy weight on one end attached to an axle closer to the heavy weight. It was a popular siege weapon during the 12th to 16th centuries. The arm is pulled down and a projectile is put in a sling, such that when the arm is released the heavy weight rapidly pulls it up and it slings the projectile far into the distance. The one in the video appears to have been constructed from commercially available wood. It’s not clear what was used as a counterweight or how the flaming ball of fire was constructed.

    As for its objective, Israeli media reported the IDF unit is most likely attempting to set fire to underbrush in southern Lebanon, which the IDF says Hezbollah uses as cover to get into position to launch attacks on northern Israel.

    And here’s the video, which also shows IDF forces using flaming arrows from a bow to set fire to the undergrowth as well:

    The old cyberpunk adage “the street finds its own use for things” comes to mind.

    Lebanon could, of course, keep Israel from hurling flaming trebuchet balls into its country by preventing Hezbollah from launching terrorist attacks against Israel from insider its borders. This it seems both unwilling and unable to do, not least of which because Hezbollah is actually a member of the ruling minority “March 8 Alliance” caretaker government. The government of Lebanon is so dysfunctional that the office of president (traditionally a Maronite Christian) has been vacant since Michel Aoun stepped down in 2022, as parliament has been unable to agree on a successor.

    As I’ve noted before, for all the talk of Hezbollah opening up a “second front” while Israel whales on Hamas like Boom Boom Mancini TKOing Bobby Chacon, but they seem to have done very little but the usual pinprick terror attacks. Hezbollah’s paymasters in Damascus and Tehran seem too busy with their own troubles to offer their Lebanese catspaw much help right now.

    (Previous “fun with trebuchets” coverage can be found here.)

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military, video | 9 Comments »

    The Coming Collapse Of Venezuela

    Thursday, June 13th, 2024

    Here’s Peter Zeihan to state what conservatives knew a decade ago: Venezuela is headed for collapse.

    It’s just over 6 minutes long, so even though I’ve excerpted it, you might want to watch all of it to listen for the one word Zeihan doesn’t say.

  • “Under 20 years of ridiculous mismanagement and theft by the governments of Hugo Chavez and now Nicholas Maduro, the state’s broken.”
  • “Basically we’ve had two decades of the governing authorities literally stealing everything that wasn’t stripped down, and then getting a wrench and getting a lot of the stuff that was stripped down [I think he means “strapped down”], to the point that they simply didn’t just confiscate materials they stripped it of equipment and melted it down or sold it for parts and there’s really nothing left.”
  • “So the country that used to have the highest educational levels in Latin America, the country that used to have the highest standard of living and the most cultural achievement, is now teetering on the verge of being a broken state, a failed state.”
  • “Roughly 1/3rd of the population that has out migrated since uh the last 6-7 years.”
  • “In calendar year 2022 and calendar year 2023, the Biden Administration did a partial lifting of sanctions on the regime, basically saying that if you start working in the direction of free and fair elections, we will allow investment to come in to stabilize the energy sector and get some more oil out of the ground. Uh, we’re going to trust your word for it, and then we will reassess when we get closer to elections in 2024.”
  • I bet everyone reading this can figure out exactly how well that worked out. “We’ll just take your word that your three card monte game is on the level.”
  • Chevron came in and got oil output up to a million barrels a day.
  • “But in the last several weeks it’s been clear that the government of Maduro has no intention of having real elections.” You don’t say. What you mean is “It’s been clear for decades that Venezuela’s socialist thugs have never had any intentions of holding free elections.” Only and idiot would think otherwise.
  • But the Biden Administration is doing everything it can to increase oil production in the rest of the world to help Biden’s reelection chances, while supressing oil production at home. “There’s a lot of things about that that are inconsistent.” You don’t say.
  • Oil production is now under three-quarters of a million barrels and falling.
  • “The really high-end stuff, the stuff that was part of the outcome of Venezuela being such a successful state, left a long time ago, and in bits and pieces ever since the the middle management and the secondary skill set and now there’s really nothing left.”
  • “People like to talk about the Chinese, the Russians, the Iranians coming, in but they don’t have any experience in this sort of oil patch, so we are probably going to see a collapse of what’s left of the output this year and early in the next year.”
  • “One of the many, many, many, many, many mistakes that Chavez and Maduro made is they hated the United States so much, and their spending was so crazy, that they started pre-selling their oil specifically to China and to a lesser degree to Russia. ‘We’ll take X number of billions of dollars from you now and we will pay you back with raw crude in the years to come.’ Well, what that means is that the Venezuelans are already not getting money from the oil that they produce.”
  • “So we are going to see this collapse, and as that happens, the ability of getting even a modicum of foreign currency to pay for the 80% of their food that they now import because they destroyed their agricultural sector is on deck.”
  • “So the famines of the past, the dislocations of the past, the migrations of the past these have all just been the appetizer course, and over the next very few years we’re going to see the full collapse of Venezuelan society.”

    • Leave it to the Biden Administration to enable foreign leftist enemies for temporary political gain.

    Did you notice the word missing from Zeihan’s analysis?

    That word is socialism.

    For well over a decade, conservatives have been talking about how Venezuela’s socialist rulers were ruining their country, up to an including zoo animals starving to death because there was no food to feed them. All while the useful idiots on the American left like Michael Moore insisted that Venezuela was building a socialist paradise.

    The only thing we learn from history is that not one enthusiast for socialism will learn from history.

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    Posted in Communism, Economics, Foreign Policy, Social Justice Warriors | 8 Comments »

    China Throws Money At Semiconductors Again

    Monday, May 27th, 2024

    Madness is doing the same thing over and expecting different results, and China is throwing money at semiconductors again.

    China has launched a massive $47 billion fund, the largest in its history, to bolster its semiconductor industry and establish a local supply chain. This fund, equivalent to 344 billion yuan, is the third phase initiated by the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [also known as the National Integrated Circuit Industry investment Fund Company (ICF), or just “Big Fund.”-LP]. It’s worth noting that this amount is twice the total funds raised in the previous phases in 2014 and 2019.

    Do you remember the last time I covered where the money went to in those previous phases? The money went to companies like Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Result? “Hongxin’s unfinished plant in the port city of Wuhan now stands abandoned. Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan.”

    Or maybe Tsinghua Unigroup. Result? The arrested a whole lot of executives, a lot of money disappeared into various pockets, and “Tsinghua Unigroup abandoned its plan to build DRAM memory chip manufacturing plants in Chongqing and Chengdu in southwest China earlier this year.”

    As I wrote before, China’s semiconductor industry is shell games all the way down.

    At lot of times, loans and investments are siphoned through four or five different entities from the purposes for which they were originally obtained. Everyone’s trying to get rich, and they hope to survive on smoke and mirrors long enough to get profitable. Imagine if Kleiner Perkins invested $25 million in a software startup, only to find that money was spent on a noodle shop, a used car dealership and a golf club manufacturer.

    Sometimes it works. You can build a company on margin, get profitable quickly, and be paying off investors and contractors before anyone realizes how shaky the entire enterprise is.

    But you can’t do that with semiconductor manufacturing. The startup costs are simply too high, easily in the billions. Very, very few companies can afford to be in a game that expensive. China’s two biggest semiconductor manufacturing success stories, SMIC and Tsinghua Unigroup, all have have CCP direct government investment.

    And bunches of Tsinghua Unigroup executive still got pinched for sticking their snouts into the trough.

    And everything should theoretically be harder now that the U.S. has imposed sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry. But one wonders just how effective these sanctions are when Applied Materials reported that 43% of its total revenue came from China in the second quarter. That suggests a certain kayfabe quality to the sanction, with just the right loopholes for AMAT (and presumably other semiconductor equipment manufacturing giants like Lam Research and Tokyo Electron) to keep getting those conveyor belts of Chinese money.

    My assumption is that, yet again, the funds earmarked for semiconductor companies will be siphoned off into a thousands unrelated pockets. (Though the rest of China’s business climate is sucking so badly that maybe some money will actually fund real semiconductor startups, if only through lack of other money-making opportunities to siphon funds off for.) Sanctions will continue to leak. A few years from now, China will announce the arrests of more executives using the Big Fund to play more investment shell games. And five years from now China will announce an even bigger set of subsidies…

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    Posted in Communism, Economics, Foreign Policy | 11 Comments »

    Shoigu Out As Russia’s Defense Minister

    Monday, May 13th, 2024

    If your boss gives you one job, and you aren’t able to accomplish that one job in two plus years, there’s an excellent chance of your ass getting canned.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose military has been criticized at home for a perceived lack of progress and heavy losses during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, announced that he was replacing longtime ally Sergei Shoigu as defense minister.

    The Kremlin said that Shoigu, 66, would be replaced by former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, 65, a little-known politician who specializes in economic matters.

    Replacing a 66 year old with a 65 year old? That’s some mighty fine youth movement you’ve got going on there, Vlad…

    Shoigu, who has been defense minister since 2012 and has been leading Russia’s military through its full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in 2022, has been named to head Russia’s Security Council, which advises the president on national security matters.

    The Kremlin said that as part of Shoigu’s Security Council duties, the former defense chief will advise on matters involving military-industrial issues.

    He will replace Nikolai Patrushev as head of the Security Council. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Patrushev’s next position will be announced in the coming days.

    Russia’s upper house of parliament, the Federation Council — which also announced the changes — said Putin has proposed reappointing Sergei Lavrov as Russia’s foreign minister.

    British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said Russia’s next defense chief will be another Putin “puppet.”

    Ya think?

    “Sergei Shoigu has overseen over 355,000 casualties amongst his own soldiers & mass civilian suffering with an illegal campaign in Ukraine,” he wrote on X.

    “Russia needs a Defense Minister who would undo that disastrous legacy & end the invasion – but all they’ll get is another of Putin’s puppets.”

    The buck for Russia’s persistent inability to conquer the much smaller Ukraine ultimately stops at Putin, so sacking Shoigu will probably be as effective at winning the war as shuffling the deck chairs on the Moskva. Vast incompetence, corruption and general military rot was allowed to fester under Shoigu’s watch, but Russian military problems predate not only his tenure, but even the Soviet Union. Traditionally Russia got its ass kicked in the first year of a war, learned from its mistakes, and used an endless supply of canon fodder to wear its enemies down.

    Russia no longer has that endless supply of manpower. The Russian way of war was wasteful and incompetent long before the current slaughter, and now it’s unsuccessful and unsustainable. Ukraine is destroying a half-century of stockpiled Soviet weapons using largely NATO surplus equipment, and however the war ends, Russia will no longer be seen as a great military power, much less a near-peer to the US and NATO. Russia occasionally seems to act more competently than they did in the early phases of the war, but they’re still using meatgrinder tactics that slaughter their own troops. Their notorious lack of NCOs means institutional knowledge has been hard to retain and transmit in the best of circumstances, and these are not the best of circumstances.

    In a normal society, the Russian military obvious dysfunction would fall squarely on the head of Shoigu, but Russia is not a normal society. The Russian military needs reform, but it’s needed reform for pretty much the entirety of its post-Soviet existence (and much of its Soviet existence to boot). Shoigu was appointed Minister of Defense precisely because he wasn’t a reformer, as predecessor Anatoly Serdyukov had attempted to reform the military, and had stepped on far too many well-shod corrupt toes in the process.

    Shoigu’s successor Andrei Belousov doesn’t exactly have typical profile you’d expect from a Minister of Defense:

    He studied economics at Moscow State University and graduated with honors in 1981.

    From 1981 to 1986, Belousov was probationer-researcher and then junior researcher in the simulation laboratory of human-machine systems of the Central Economic Mathematical Institute.

    If you were a full-time student in the Soviet Union during the period, you could avoid compulsory military service by going straight into the reserve officer services without actually doing any actual military duty. That timeline suggests Belousov went that route.

    From 1991 to 2006, he was head of laboratory in the Institute of Economic Forecasting in the Russian Academy of Science. He was external advisor to prime minister from 2000 to 2006.

    Belousov served as deputy minister of economic development and trade for two years from 2006 to 2008.

    From 2008 to 2012, he was director of the finances and economic department in the Russian Prime Minister’s office.

    Belousov has the federal state civilian service rank of 1st class Active State Councillor of the Russian Federation.

    On 21 May 2012, he was appointed minister of economic development to the cabinet led by prime minister Dimitri Medvedev. Belousov succeeded Elvira Nabiullina as minister of economic development.

    On 24 June 2013, he was appointed as Putin’s Presidential Assistant in Economic Affairs.

    On 21 January 2020, Belousov was appointed as First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia in Mikhail Mishustin’s Cabinet. From 30 April to 19 May 2020, Belousov was appointed by Vladimir Putin as Acting Prime Minister of Russia, temporarily replacing Mikhail Mishustin, after the latter was diagnosed with coronavirus. According to Politico, he is one possible successor to Putin.

    So he’s a Putin toady with no military background. He will probably come in with considerable authority, but no knowledge of where the bodies are buried, or which members of the general staff are lying to him (probably all of them). The thermocline of truth is a danger for any organization, especially a national military, especially for a dictatorship where regime critics suffer alarmingly high rates of defenestration.

    Can a career political functionary with no military experience successfully reform a vast national military? It’s within the realm of possibility, but no examples spring to mind. Both Casper Weinberger and Donald Rumsfeld had served in the military. Belousov could be the second coming of Henry L. Stimson, and it would still take him a minimum of 6-12 months to find all the levers he needed to actually reform the Russian military. And I would wager money that Belousov isn’t the second coming of Henry L. Stimson.

    I think the most likely outcome of replacing Shoigu with Belousov will be a period where Russia switches from its current course of slow, grinding stupidity for a few months of much quicker and more disasterous stupidity.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military | 22 Comments »

    Why Saudi Arabia’s Neom Is Doomed

    Sunday, April 21st, 2024

    I’m not sure I’ve mentioned Saudi Arabia’s Neom project before, the plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall linear city arcology in the northwest Saudi desert.

    As this Patrick Boyle video shows, things aren’t going swimmingly.

    Pitched in a mock “I think it’s a great idea, so please don’t Khashoggi me” tone, Boyle points out a few niggling problems with the entire concept.

  • “Neom The Line is a 170 km long city being built in the deserts of Saudi Arabia that was supposed to cost $200 billion to build. It’ll accommodate nine million people in a massive structure that is 200 meters wide and 500 meters tall. It’s conveniently located in an allegedly empty area of desert.”
  • It will have “all of the modern features that you would want, like an artificial moon, robot dinosaurs, flying cars, human gene editing and glow-in-the-dark sand.”
  • “The only abundant resources that a group of consultants could identify were sunlight and unlimited access to salt water.”
  • “Bloomberg reports that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund cash reserves have fallen to $5 billion as of September, the lowest level since 2020, The Live City according to the latest reports, is now only expected to extend 2.4 km and house 300,000 people by the end of the decade. This is a 98.6% reduction from the initial plans. So it’s still going ahead, it’ll just be a little bit smaller than had been hoped for a while.”
  • “Building an unusually densely populated 170 kilometer long city that’s as tall as some of the tallest buildings in the world in what is described as a harsh dry desert with great temperature extremes strikes me as a great idea. Other people have not been as positive about these plans.”
  • Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced plans for Neom four months after being named Crown Prince successor to current king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.
  • “The project is being overseen and financed by the Saudi Arabian Sovereign wealth fun, which the Crown Prince also chairs. It was pitched as costing $200 billion, but upon reflection might cost a bit more than that.”
  • “Off the top of my head I can’t think of any other cities that are 170 kilometers long while only 200 meters wide and 500 meters tall. In fact, I struggle to think of any cities that are taller than they are wide.”
  • “Historically, skyscrapers have been built in very dense urban locations where the price of land is so high that it makes economic sense to build upwards to minimize the cost of the land per total floor area of a building.”
  • “I found a paper by Brinkley and Raj which explains that in open systems, perfusion guides form and growth. They explain that ecosystems grow as fractals, with new branches sprouting in order to maximize profusion and resource uptake. They go on to explain that most cities grow as fractals branching out maximizing the urban interface with available fuel and arable land.”
  • Of course, Neom has no fuel or arable land nearby. In Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle’s Oath of Fealty, they argue that an arcology needs to be built near an existing city (in their case Los Angeles) to prosper.
  • “A long narrow city guarantees that inhabitants are always the maximum distance from wherever they need to go.”
  • Boyle examines the claim that you can travel from one end of Neom to the other in 20 minutes and has a little fun with math:

    To travel 170 km in 20 minutes, you’d have to be traveling at 510kmph, which is a bit faster than and the world’s fastest train. Of course, 510kmph assumes no stops along the way, which might be a bit inconvenient for people who live near the middle of the city. London Underground stations and New York subway stations are usually about a quarter of a mile apart from each other. [I believe Boyle is mistaken here, and London tube stations are closer to an average of a mile apart. -LP] 170km is 105.6 miles, so the line would need 412 train stops along the way subway trains usually stop and open their doors for at least 30 seconds at each station so with 42 stations the train would be stopped for 206 minutes allowing people to get on and off the train at the stations. 206 minutes is of course a bit more than 20 minutes, so people would need to get on and off the trains a bit quicker than that. If the train stopped for just two seconds at each station, the train would only be stopped for 14 minutes leaving us with six minutes to travel 170 km, so we would just have to travel at 1,700km hour which is a bit over 1,000mph. 1,000mph would, of course, be an average speed. There would have to be a lot of extreme acceleration and deceleration going on, meaning that the top speed would have to be well over 1,000mph. You’d have two seconds to get on or off a train that would quickly accelerate up to, let’s say, three times the speed of sound before slamming on its brakes for the next station.

    Enjoy the g-lock.

  • “The Line is going to be a fairly busy city. Nine million people will be living on a footprint of just 34 square kilometers, which is 13 square miles. Manila in the Philippines has the world’s highest population density with 119,600 people per square mile. Neom would have 686,000 people per square mile, which is almost six times the population density of Manila.”
  • “The Wall Street Journal reviewed 2300 pages of documents put together by Consultants at BCG McKenzie and Oliver Wyman, the consultants were directed by MBS to help turn his idea into a reality. And the documents highlight that the project is so ambitious that it incorporates many technologies that don’t yet exist.”
  • “The Line is going to be 500 meters tall, which is about the same height as Taipei 101, which was the tallest building in the world when it was built 20 years ago at a cost of just under $2 billion. Taipei 101 is 75 meters wide, so you would need to build 13.3 of these for each kilometer. 2,270 of these buildings would equal just one wall of The Line. For both city walls you would need 4,540 Taipei 101s.”
  • “And that’s just the external walls. There’s still all the inner buildings, the hyperloop, the floating gardens, the autonomous flying pods and the artificial moon. Let’s not forget power plants, water desalination plants, airport, sewage treatment, human gene editing facilities, and everything else needed for a modern city.”
  • “The Line will have about half of the population of New York City, and thus should require around 5,000 megawatts of power per day. It might need a lot more than that, as water desalination is very energy intensive, and being based in the desert, people might want to run their air conditioners most of the time.”
  • “New York City requires hundreds of power plants to run, but gets around one third of its power from four nuclear power plants. Let’s say The Line is a very energy efficient city and can get by on one third of the power consumed by New York City. You would then need to build four or five nuclear power plants to supply that power.”
  • “Each power plant would cost between $6 and $9 billion, so we’re looking at $30 to $40 billion just for the power plants to supply electricity.”
  • “The 4,500 140 Taipei 101 buildings needed just as the exterior walls for The Line would cost $9.1 trillion dollars, assuming that construction costs have not gone up in 20 years, which they probably have. MBS was initially going to build all of this for $200 billion, which is less than 2% of the cost I’ve estimated for just the walls.”
  • “Thunderf00t estimated the overall build cost of a city like this to be $100 trillion.” Thunderf00t also looked at the failure of all of Dubai’s land reclamation projects in the Persian gulf save the very first, none of which are remotely as ambitious as Neom.

    • I think you get the idea.

    Murdering the occasional jihad-friendly journalist aside, MBS actually has carried out some significant reforms (like sidelining the hardline Wahabbist clerics), but his pet Neom project is clearly 95% delusional. Despite which, they’ve already done fairly ridiculous amounts of earthmoving on the project.

    They are a few decent ideas among the delusions: It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Saudis to incubate a tech sector, they get enough sun that getting into manufacturing solar panels to help plan for a post-oil future might be a viable option, and they probably should invest in desalinization plants to develop some agricultural self-sufficiency.

    But the idea of building the full Line is a delusional fantasy.

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    Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy | 19 Comments »

    Breaking: Israel Hits Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

    Thursday, April 18th, 2024

    Israel isn’t messing around.

    Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, according to confirmation from a U.S. official as first reported by ABC News. The official was unable to confirm whether the reports of additional Israeli strikes against military targets in Syria and Iraq were true. Iran has activated its air defenses over several cities, according to Iranian state media.

    However, local sources report explosions in Iran’s city of Isfahan, the home of the Iranian regime’s nuclear and conventional-missile programs. Meanwhile, further explosions were reported near Baghdad, in an area used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to meet with proxies in the region.

    Dubai-based air carriers FlyDubai and Emirates were observed diverting around Isfahan, located in central Iran, in the early hours of Friday morning local time.

    The reported strikes come hours after Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, said in an exclusive interview with CNN that Iran’s response to military action from Israel would be “immediate and at a maximum level.”

    One wonders how much “maximum effort” Iran has left in the can as their previous 300 missile/drone barrage accomplished jack and squat.

    Amir-Abdollahian remarks come after Iran’s Sunday attack when Iran launched approximately 300 missiles and drones at Israel in a blanketing effort to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses. Coalition forces, the U.S. foremost among these, shot down the overwhelming majority of the incoming munitions.

    Best YouTube footage I could find, which isn’t great.

    Developing…

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military, video | 12 Comments »

    LinkSwarm For March 29, 2024

    Friday, March 29th, 2024

    Lies trying to hide how bad the Biden Recession sucks continue to unravel, a mini Texas-vs.-California update, Ukraine makes another oil refinery go boom, true depths of human depravity, some Bill Burr and Critical Drinker links, and two tons of Murica. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • Dallas Fed manufacturing survey: “It’s A Far Deeper Recession Than Publicized.”

    Against expectations of a small improvement from -11.3 to -10.0, the headline sentiment gauge dropped to -14.4 (the lowest end of analysts’ forecasts).

    Furthermore, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month.

    Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated declines this month.

    The new orders index – a key measure of demand – dropped 17 points to -11.8 after briefly turning positive last month.

    The capacity utilization index edged down five points to -5.7, and the shipments index plunged from 0.1 to -15.4.

    The decline in new orders came alongside a surge in prices as raw materials costs rose to 13-month highs…

    That has the stench of stagflation lathered all over it.

  • Also worse than reported: employment numbers. “Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000.”

    We first have to go back to December 2022, when we reported something shocking: as part of its data analysis of the “more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program”, the Philadelphia Fed found that the BLS had overstated jobs to the tune of 1.1 million! This is what the Philadelphia Fed wrote in its quarterly Early Benchmark Revision of State Payroll Employment report at the time:

    Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.

    So what did this “more accurate”, “more comprehensive” report find? It found that…

    In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.

    Lots of detailed analysis snipped.

    Putting it all together, we now know – as the Philly Fed reported first – that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.

    Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.

  • I think I link a story like this every year: “California Leads Among U.S. States Sending People to Texas in 2022. Florida and New York combined sent fewer people to Texas than California.” Leave any leftwing politics behind when you move…
  • California has a $55 billion deficit. But don’t worry, for the 24-25 fiscal year, it’s a $73 billion deficit.
  • Ukraine hits another Russian oil refinery, this time in Samara.
  • “Russian network that ‘paid European politicians’ busted.”

    A Russian-backed “propaganda” network has been broken up for spreading anti-Ukraine stories and paying unnamed European politicians, according to authorities in several countries.

    Investigators claimed it used the popular Voice of Europe website as a vehicle to pay politicians.

    The Czech Republic and Poland said the network aimed to influence European politics.

    Voice of Europe did not respond to the BBC’s request for comment.

    Czech media, citing intelligence sources, reported that politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary were paid by Voice of Europe in order to influence upcoming elections for the European Parliament.

    The German newspaper Der Spiegel said the money was either handed over in cash in covert meetings in Prague or through cryptocurrency exchanges.

    Pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk is alleged by the Czech Republic to be behind the network.

    Mr Medvedchuk was arrested in Ukraine soon after the Russian invasion, but later transferred to Russia with about 50 prisoners of war in exchange for 215 Ukrainians.

    Czech authorities also named Artyom Marchevsky, alleging he managed the day-to-day business of the website. Both men were sanctioned by Czech authorities.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • “Abbott says he needs ‘two more votes’ to pass school choice.” Presumably he’ll get those (and then some) in the May runoff.
  • “$100M missing from Bay area trust fund management company. A Bay area father who counted on a local non-profit to handle a trust fund designed for his daughter’s long-term care feels duped.” And this is a trust for special needs kids.
  • Another dispatch from the decline of Charm City.

    The radical leftists in control of Baltimore City Hall have plunged the metro area just north of Washington, DC, into apocalyptic levels. We advise readers to entirely avoid the metro area as violent crime spirals out of control.

    Failed social justice reforms, defunding the police, and widespread mistrust of the police have resulted in a skeleton police force that will no longer be able to protect residents in some regions of the city.

    Fox Baltimore reported last Tuesday that only three police officers were on duty for the Southern Police District, which includes more than 61,000 residents.

  • Joe Lieberman, RIP. One of the least reprehensible Democratic senators of the last 30 years or so. But I still remember this:

  • Don’t click on this link unless you want to plumb the depths of human depravity. Noteworthy: “He and his husband.”
  • Flagstaff school board wants to parents to know they’re going to shove social justice down their children’s throats no matter what.
  • “GOP Delegates Adopt Resolutions Criticizing H-E-B CEO Charles Butt for Anti-School Choice Donations.”
  • Republicans file bill to strip money from woke medical schools.
  • Stellantis, AKA The European Monster That Ate Chrysler, just just laid off a whole bunch of white collar workers. Note their mention of focusing on “implementing our EV product offensive.” Oh yeah, they’re boned.
  • Speaking of EV layoffs, Ford is cutting down the staff of their F-150 Lightning plant to one third of what it was. The Lightning is enjoying a double whammy, in that people don’t want EVs, and Ford’s core customers can no longer afford trucks with an average selling price north of $80,000.
  • Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declares victory over Disney, as the latter has dropped their lawsuit over the the elimination of their special district status.
  • Sean Combs, AKA “Puff Daddy,” AKA “Diddy,” raided by the FBI. “A source close to the investigation told NBC News that the raid was connected to allegations of sex-trafficking and sexual assault and the solicitation and distribution of illegal narcotics and firearms.” “Source close” caveats apply.
  • The federal government is going to allow a shuttered nuclear power plant to be restarted. “The federal government announced that it would provide a $1.5 billion loan to restart a nuclear power plant in southwestern Michigan. NJ-based Holtec International acquired the 800-megawatt Palisades plant in 2022 with plans to dismantle it, but with support from the state of Michigan and the Biden administration, the emphasis has shifted to restarting the nuclear power plant by late 2025 instead.” Not wild about the loan part, but restarting America’s nuclear energy growth is long overdue.
  • Used Japanese homes are worthless Not just because of the shrinking population, but because they’re designed to be.
  • Bill Burr answers questions from the Internet.
  • The Critical Drinker is not impressed with the Road House remake. “The Patrick Swayze original wasn’t exactly peak cinema. It was dumb and over-the-top and silly, and I don’t imagine people were exactly crying out for a remake. But damn, man, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to this version.”
  • School tries to ban American flag from truck. Result: Two tons of Murica.
  • Twitch is cracking down on streams that “focus on intimate body parts.” After watching this, I have one question: Where exactly did the lady featured obtain her “automatic butt jiggler?”
  • Feel-good crime aftermath story:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

    • Hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





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    Posted in Border Control, Budget, Crime, Democrats, Economics, Foreign Policy, Military, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas, Waste and Fraud | 5 Comments »

    China’s Roving Death Vans

    Sunday, March 3rd, 2024

    The more we find out about Communist China, the more there is to loath, despite all the globalist happy talk about a “flat” world where we could export manufacturing to China for lower costs without any negative consequence. Today’s example: A government propaganda video bragging about their mobile death vans.

  • “This is one of those times where I wish genuinely that I hadn’t found something. I just discovered something absolutely horrid.”
  • “These cars just show up and execute you.”
  • They used to have public executions in arenas. They haven’t done away with that (or shooting you on the side of the road and burying you in a ditch), but the death vans are considered more “efficient.”
  • “How [the government video] is framed, it’s like how would you be executed, this is going to happen to you. You’re supposed to enter this POV, this is from your perspective, how are you going to be taken out by the government?”
  • They make a point of how much more humane lethal injection is. “Look how nice we are!”
  • They talk about how much cheaper a mobile execution van is than a fixed execution center. “This is really good! It’s a cost-saving method when we need to go murder all those people!”
  • “China, even per capita, executes more people every year than every single country combined. And that’s just the people that they count…every year, China is executing thousands and thousands of people.”
  • One estimate has 8,000 people per year executed in China. (And that’s just the ones we have some evidence for. “Some people just get disappeared.”) By contrast, there were 18 death row inmates executed in the U.S. in 2022.
  • “It’s really grim and also very dystopian, the fact that when you’re strapped down and laying there, you’re looking up at the Communist Party of China’s insignia and right above that is a security camera.”
  • Remember: China has nothing like our legal system or the rule of law. They have a 99.9% conviction rate.
  • There’s a long list of crimes you can receive the death penalty for, including owning a gun or using a VPN. “If somebody wants you gone, you could get the death penalty for really anything.”
  • And the government video talks about the process of the lethal injection shutting down your organs.

    • Matthew Tye, the covering the video, lived in China for a decade. This is “how human life is treated on a political level in China…I think this gives you a perspective on how hard Chinese citizens have it.”

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    Posted in Communism, Foreign Policy, video | 16 Comments »

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