There’s an idiomatic express that seems to have fallen out of common usage: “What does that have to do with the price of Tea in China?” The phrase indicates that they speaker has no interest or use in the information you’re conveying. This video has me curious as to what the price of one packet of dried ramen noodles goes for in China.
China seems to be having an unenviable bout of stagflation, with both unemployment and inflation rising at the same time. (So, for that matter, are we, though not as severe, and one which our elites controlling economic data seem determined to hide as much as possible.) In the video, people are complaining that packaged ramen noodles are going up from 2.8 to 3 yuan. (An online Chinese retail price tool puts it at a statistically indistinguishable 2.98 yuan.) At official exchange rates, 3 yuan is about 41¢.
Back in the days of being a poor college student, I could generally eat on 20 dollars a week. Rice, spaghetti, luncheon meat sandwiches, hot dogs and ramen were regular staples. Good ramen (Maruchan or Top Ramen) could readily be found five for $1, and the generic brand (back then they had literal generic brands with plain white packaging) could even be had for 15¢ a pop.
Those days, of course, are long gone. An individual pack of Maruchan Ramen is now 30¢ at Walmart, or 31¢ at HEB.
I had always had the vague impression that China exported ramen to the U.S., but Maruchan is actually packaged just south of San Antonio in Von Ormy.
It’s surprising to me that ramen, the college student survival staple, is actually more expensive in China than here, despite average Americans being much wealthier than average Chinese.
It must really, really suck to be poor in China right now…
Several people have wargamed possible outcomes to the Russo-Ukrainian War, but probably few have so literally gamified it.
His argument is pretty simple: Russia has X-industrial capacity, it’s using up Y amounts of war material, broken down into rough categories of how much Z time it takes to replace said war material. As this material is used up faster than it can be replaced, a scale estimates the chances of the Russian lines collapsing due to lack of material to carry on the fight, which runs from 10% in June to 100% on December 26, 2026.
There is a certain rough and ready logic to this analysis, and Russia is using up its stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment at an unsustainable rate, especially when it comes to aircraft. But there are numerous problems with this gamified analysis:
This is an abstraction of an abstraction of an abstraction. The map is not the territory, and the Russo-Ukrainian War is not a game of Strategic Conquest where any city’s productive capacity can be set to any task.
It’s not a question of how much generic productive capacity, it’s how much steel, gas, titanium, precision machinery, semiconductors, etc., Russia can produce.
By assuming Europe will keep Ukraine well supplied with war material, the YouTuber (Mark Biernat, “a Ph.D. student in Poland and teach college economics in the US”) is making assumptions that may not be warranted, especially when it comes to manpower, which may be a serious constraint on Ukraine.
It also assume that Russia won’t change it’s wasteful, grinding assault tactics to conserve men and material. Maybe not a bad bet, given their continued stupidity, but not a sure thing.
The author has not covered the general state of the Russian economy here, but he seems to have gone into that in other videos. The problem is that YouTubers have correctly predicted 10,000 of the last zero Russian economic collapses, so I’m getting a little jaded on this front. Russia’s economy is clearly in trouble, but large economies can stay in trouble for quite a long time before collapsing.
I am broadly sympathetic to the author’s thesis and worldview, but this argument is too abstracted from reality for me to assign any veracity to the estimation dates for possible collapse.
China has launched a massive $47 billion fund, the largest in its history, to bolster its semiconductor industry and establish a local supply chain. This fund, equivalent to 344 billion yuan, is the third phase initiated by the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [also known as the National Integrated Circuit Industry investment Fund Company (ICF), or just “Big Fund.”-LP]. It’s worth noting that this amount is twice the total funds raised in the previous phases in 2014 and 2019.
Do you remember the last time I covered where the money went to in those previous phases? The money went to companies like Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Result? “Hongxin’s unfinished plant in the port city of Wuhan now stands abandoned. Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan.”
Or maybe Tsinghua Unigroup. Result? The arrested a whole lot of executives, a lot of money disappeared into various pockets, and “Tsinghua Unigroup abandoned its plan to build DRAM memory chip manufacturing plants in Chongqing and Chengdu in southwest China earlier this year.”
At lot of times, loans and investments are siphoned through four or five different entities from the purposes for which they were originally obtained. Everyone’s trying to get rich, and they hope to survive on smoke and mirrors long enough to get profitable. Imagine if Kleiner Perkins invested $25 million in a software startup, only to find that money was spent on a noodle shop, a used car dealership and a golf club manufacturer.
Sometimes it works. You can build a company on margin, get profitable quickly, and be paying off investors and contractors before anyone realizes how shaky the entire enterprise is.
But you can’t do that with semiconductor manufacturing. The startup costs are simply too high, easily in the billions. Very, very few companies can afford to be in a game that expensive. China’s two biggest semiconductor manufacturing success stories, SMIC and Tsinghua Unigroup, all have have CCP direct government investment.
And bunches of Tsinghua Unigroup executive still got pinched for sticking their snouts into the trough.
My assumption is that, yet again, the funds earmarked for semiconductor companies will be siphoned off into a thousands unrelated pockets. (Though the rest of China’s business climate is sucking so badly that maybe some money will actually fund real semiconductor startups, if only through lack of other money-making opportunities to siphon funds off for.) Sanctions will continue to leak. A few years from now, China will announce the arrests of more executives using the Big Fund to play more investment shell games. And five years from now China will announce an even bigger set of subsidies…
More Biden corruption unearthed, the Biden Recession has canaries dying left and right, yet another Katy ISD teacher involved in child sex crimes, and Phoebe Waller-Bridge is being given another tomb raider to destroy. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on Thursday as part of a probe into whether the Biden DOJ coordinated with Trump prosecutors.
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on Thursday as part of a probe into whether the Biden DOJ coordinated with Trump prosecutors.
House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer dropped a bombshell on Thursday, revealing that his panel had unearthed new financial accounts tied to the Biden family investigation. Adding to the drama, Comer announced a fresh subpoena aimed at an undisclosed bank, ramping up the pressure in this ongoing probe.
“This morning, I issued a subpoena for targeted financial information from a certain financial institution related to Jim Biden, Sarah Biden and Hunter Biden. This is a result of many of the documents that Devon Archer turned over,” Comer told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.
The Oversight Committee began investigating the Biden family’s alleged shady business dealings over two years ago. In March, they called for Biden to testify before Congress, stating that “the committee has accounted for over $24 million that has flowed from foreign sources to you, your family, and their business associates.”
“It is unbelievable,” Comer continued. “I don’t think you would find very many people that have a billion-dollar net worth that have as many different bank accounts as this Biden family had. Many of these were shell companies.”
Those were “companies [whose] sole purpose was to launder the money that the Bidens were receiving from China, from Romania, from Russia,” Comer added. “And never one time through the course of this entire investigation, even during the depositions with Hunter Biden and the transcribed interview with Jim Biden, were they able to answer exactly what the family did to receive this money.”
Gov. Greg Abbott has pardoned U.S. Army Sergeant Daniel Perry following a recommendation of pardon and restoration of his firearm rights by the Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles.
The board voted unanimously on the recommendation.
Shortly after the recommendation was made, Abbott officially pardoned Perry.
“The Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles conducted an exhaustive review of U.S. Army Sergeant Daniel Perry’s personal history and the facts surrounding the July 2020 incident and recommended a Full Pardon and Restoration of Full Civil Rights of Citizenship,” Abbott wrote in a press release.
“Among the voluminous files reviewed by the Board, they considered information provided by the Travis County District Attorney, the full investigative report on Daniel Perry, plus a review of all the testimony provided at trial. Texas has one of the strongest ‘Stand Your Ground’ laws on self-defense that cannot be nullified by a jury or a progressive District Attorney. I thank the Board for its thorough investigation, and I approve their pardon recommendation.”
Perry was convicted of murdering Air Force veteran and Black Lives Matter protester Garrett Foster in 2023. A Travis County jury deliberated for 17 hours before finding Perry guilty of murder but not aggravated assault of Foster at the intersection of 4th Street and Congress Avenue in downtown Austin, as well as threatening a crowd with his car during the 2020 protest.
Perry, who was working as an Uber driver, shot and killed Foster with a .357 Magnum revolver after Foster approached the driver door of his Hyundai Ioniq.
This dispassionate description hides the fact that Perry’s car was surrounded by a crowd of rioters, including the one who aimed a gun at Perry. This was a clear case of self defense that never would have gone to trial if Travis County’s far left Soros backed DA Jose Garza weren’t so in favor of radical left wing rioters and hostile the right of self defense.
The Department of Justice recently argued that a whistleblower lawsuit against Pfizer, filed by Brook Jackson, should be dismissed.
Jackson, a 20-year veteran in clinical trial administration employed by a third-party vendor (Ventavia Research Group), worked on Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trials in 2020. Alarmed by what she witnessed, Jackson raised concerns to her superiors, Pfizer, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in September 2020.
She claimed the trial was being run, documented, and reported in a manner that violated Federal law and was potentially dangerous.
Hours after contacting the FDA on September 25, 2020, Jackson was fired. Her sealed whistleblower complaint seemed to stall, with the FDA not investigating her claims. Faced with inaction, Jackson filed a lawsuit.
As the case progressed towards discovery, the DOJ intervened, asking the judge to dismiss the case. Jackson argues that the government failed to articulate a legitimate reason for dismissal and did not demonstrate why the burdens of continued litigation outweigh its benefits.
Disturbingly, a former FDA lawyer who worked at the agency when Jackson’s complaint was filed has moved to the DOJ and is now representing the government in its attempt to shut down the suit, raising concerns about regulatory capture and the use of government to shield companies from accountability.
In 2021, the British Medical Journal published an article investigating Jackson’s claims and found them credible. The journal’s investigation concluded that Jackson’s account was supported by documentation and raised serious questions about the integrity of Pfizer’s vaccine trials and the FDA’s oversight.
Other former Ventavia employees vouched for Jackson’s complaint, describing a “helter-skelter” work environment and lack of oversight.
Despite evidence and corroboration, the FDA did not inspect Ventavia after Jackson’s complaint, and Pfizer did not mention any problems at Ventavia in its FDA submission for emergency use authorization.
BMJ’s findings lend significant credibility to Jackson’s claims and raise serious questions about the integrity of Pfizer’s vaccine trial data, the adequacy of regulatory oversight, and, ultimately, the approved emergency use authorization.
Follow the money…
Court throws DEI amendment to NY constitution, off November’s ballot. “The NY State Supreme Court (trial court) in Livingston County (near Rochester), granted summary judgment throwing the ERA off the November ballot, on the ground that the proponents of the legislation did not follow the constitutionally required procedure for advancing a ballot initiative for a constitutional amendment.”
A Tompkins High School teacher has been arrested on nine counts of possession of child pornography.
James Paul Stone was booked into the Fort Bend County Jail Monday.
According to the Montgomery County Precinct 3 Constable’s office, thousands of images of child pornography were recovered from Stone’s residence, including several images that Stone admitted to producing himself.
Ah, not this crap again. “Venezuela Moves ‘Substantial Quantities’ Of Troops To Guyana Border.”
Obviously, the ruble has lost value because of the extensive sanctions and cutoff from SWIFT following Russia’s launch of its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine. For most of the last year, the exchange rate has bounced from a high of 75 rubles to the dollar to a low of just over 100 rubles to the dollar.
However, in the last month, the ruble-dollar exchange rate has traded within an extremely narrow band between just over 90 and just over 94 rubles to the dollar.
That’s a pretty unusual, and pretty narrow, band to be trading in. The question is who, or what, is maintaining that band. Russia could be intervening to make sure the ruble doesn’t go too much above 94, but it wouldn’t make sense for them (if they’re trying to defend the currency) to be sellers on the other side when the ruble appreciates to 90 or less per dollar. Could it be China, trying to move some of the rubles taken in bilateral trade, or some institutional investor somehow stuck with rubles for two two years, unloading them whenever it hits that peg?
But it’s not just the dollar! We see the same thing with the Pound:
And the Euro:
It even seems true of two of Russia’s remaining big trading partners. The Indian rupee:
The Chinese Renminbi/Yuan:
All seem to be trading within very narrow, oscillating bands.
Is it a data artifact? Other currency exchange sites don’t show quite as obvious oscillation, but all do show trading within that narrow band.
I don’t know what to make of it. I don’t know enough to hazard any more educated guesses than that. But someone seems to be manipulating ruble exchange rates, and I’m not sure why.
If you have any ideas, feel free to share them below.
It turns out that unleashing a deadly engineered plague on the world, bellicose posturing, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, treaty breaking, and genocidal actions against ethnic minorities isn’t a recipe for winning friends and influencing people.
Who knew?
Evidently not Xi Jingping, as under his leadership, it looks like some 90% of Chinese factories will close due to lack of business.
“My factory closed down, ended up losing over 10 million.” I’m assuming that’s Yuan.
“China continues to face a harsh winter, with reportedly 90% of factories either closing down or falling into difficulties.”
Factories that has been in business and profitable for 15 years got walloped by Flu Manchu in 2020. “After the outbreak, the factory started and stopped production intermittently, basically losing money for a year. Unexpectedly, the following three years were worse.”
“At the start of the year, there were almost no new orders. The old customers who used to order every month also significantly reduced their orders. The entire industry had fewer orders than during the 3 years of the epidemic.”
This lead to “severe competition within the industry this year to get orders. Besides low profits, customers also demanded goods to be made before payment.”
“In the second half of 2023, he was basically just chasing payments. Many customers were withholding final payments, and his factory had long run out of operational funds. During this period, he had already mortgaged his house in Shinjin for business loans. For these three years, his factory had been barely surviving on loans, and he didn’t know when it would all end. Recently he’s been exhausted, so he decided to shut” everything down.
“Bosses like us in small manufacturing factories will soon become the bottom of society. Becoming a bad debtor is only a matter of time, My factory in Guangdong is quite typical of those in the industry. Most of my customers products are for export.”
Factory workers, of course, are losing jobs and hours left and right due to the shutdowns. Plus those few factories still hiring can afford to be picky. “Those over 33 can go back! Those under 33 stay! Not accepting anyone over 33!”
“China’s products such as petrochemical raw materials, fuel and electric vehicle power batteries and non-core chips are all facing overcapacity.”
“After the pandemic, China’s economic recovery has been weak. Traditional export orders are insufficient, and products manufactured by Chinese factories exceed the domestic markets absorption capacity causing almost every industry to face overcapacity as other countries strive to curb inflation.”
“China is experiencing rare deflation.”
China’s plan to combat this is exporting high tech goods to the rest of the world. The rest of the world doesn’t seem enthused.
I’m skipping over some Q1 growth statistics for China I don’t believe.
“Due to overcapacity in China, companies are squeezing each other’s profits by lowering export prices.”
“In the first quarter, China’s manufacturing capacity utilization rate plummeted to 73.8%, the weakest level since 2015.”
“The utilization rate of the automotive manufacturing industry has now dropped to below 65%.”
And the electric car bubble bursting has hit China hard. “For years the CCP has spared no effort, using high subsidies and various preferential policies to fully support the development of new energy vehicles.”
“It is estimated that from 2010 to the present, over 200 billion yuan, about $28 billion US, has been directly subsidized to new energy vehicle companies by the CCP.”
“The CCP’s irrational economic measures not only harmed the global economy, but also damaged China’s own economy. The subsidy policy has not only led to the emergence of numerous purported new players in the automotive manufacturing sector, but has also notably spawned a significant number of counterfeit car companies that rely solely on deceiving subsidies through presentations and mockup models.” In other words, the same smoke and mirrors companies seen throughout the rest of China economy.
“The Wall Street Journal reported that in 2018 there were already more than 487 Chinese electric car manufacturers, but now there are only over 40 remaining.” (Previously.)
Is the 90% factory closure estimate way too high? Probably. But if it’s even of factories, imagine the devastating economic and social dislocation effects this will have on China’s aging economy.
Much of China’s economic miracle was built on smoke and mirrors, and by one estimate China GDP was overstated by 60%. And thanks to Xi Jinping’s gross mismanagement of just about everything, the bill for all those illusions is now coming due.
I’m not sure I’ve mentioned Saudi Arabia’s Neom project before, the plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall linear city arcology in the northwest Saudi desert.
As this Patrick Boyle video shows, things aren’t going swimmingly.
Pitched in a mock “I think it’s a great idea, so please don’t Khashoggi me” tone, Boyle points out a few niggling problems with the entire concept.
“Neom The Line is a 170 km long city being built in the deserts of Saudi Arabia that was supposed to cost $200 billion to build. It’ll accommodate nine million people in a massive structure that is 200 meters wide and 500 meters tall. It’s conveniently located in an allegedly empty area of desert.”
It will have “all of the modern features that you would want, like an artificial moon, robot dinosaurs, flying cars, human gene editing and glow-in-the-dark sand.”
“The only abundant resources that a group of consultants could identify were sunlight and unlimited access to salt water.”
“Bloomberg reports that the Saudi Sovereign Wealth Fund cash reserves have fallen to $5 billion as of September, the lowest level since 2020, The Live City according to the latest reports, is now only expected to extend 2.4 km and house 300,000 people by the end of the decade. This is a 98.6% reduction from the initial plans. So it’s still going ahead, it’ll just be a little bit smaller than had been hoped for a while.”
“Building an unusually densely populated 170 kilometer long city that’s as tall as some of the tallest buildings in the world in what is described as a harsh dry desert with great temperature extremes strikes me as a great idea. Other people have not been as positive about these plans.”
Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) announced plans for Neom four months after being named Crown Prince successor to current king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud.
“The project is being overseen and financed by the Saudi Arabian Sovereign wealth fun, which the Crown Prince also chairs. It was pitched as costing $200 billion, but upon reflection might cost a bit more than that.”
“Off the top of my head I can’t think of any other cities that are 170 kilometers long while only 200 meters wide and 500 meters tall. In fact, I struggle to think of any cities that are taller than they are wide.”
“Historically, skyscrapers have been built in very dense urban locations where the price of land is so high that it makes economic sense to build upwards to minimize the cost of the land per total floor area of a building.”
“I found a paper by Brinkley and Raj which explains that in open systems, perfusion guides form and growth. They explain that ecosystems grow as fractals, with new branches sprouting in order to maximize profusion and resource uptake. They go on to explain that most cities grow as fractals branching out maximizing the urban interface with available fuel and arable land.”
Of course, Neom has no fuel or arable land nearby. In Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle’s Oath of Fealty, they argue that an arcology needs to be built near an existing city (in their case Los Angeles) to prosper.
“A long narrow city guarantees that inhabitants are always the maximum distance from wherever they need to go.”
Boyle examines the claim that you can travel from one end of Neom to the other in 20 minutes and has a little fun with math:
To travel 170 km in 20 minutes, you’d have to be traveling at 510kmph, which is a bit faster than and the world’s fastest train. Of course, 510kmph assumes no stops along the way, which might be a bit inconvenient for people who live near the middle of the city. London Underground stations and New York subway stations are usually about a quarter of a mile apart from each other. [I believe Boyle is mistaken here, and London tube stations are closer to an average of a mile apart. -LP] 170km is 105.6 miles, so the line would need 412 train stops along the way subway trains usually stop and open their doors for at least 30 seconds at each station so with 42 stations the train would be stopped for 206 minutes allowing people to get on and off the train at the stations. 206 minutes is of course a bit more than 20 minutes, so people would need to get on and off the trains a bit quicker than that. If the train stopped for just two seconds at each station, the train would only be stopped for 14 minutes leaving us with six minutes to travel 170 km, so we would just have to travel at 1,700km hour which is a bit over 1,000mph. 1,000mph would, of course, be an average speed. There would have to be a lot of extreme acceleration and deceleration going on, meaning that the top speed would have to be well over 1,000mph. You’d have two seconds to get on or off a train that would quickly accelerate up to, let’s say, three times the speed of sound before slamming on its brakes for the next station.
Enjoy the g-lock.
“The Line is going to be a fairly busy city. Nine million people will be living on a footprint of just 34 square kilometers, which is 13 square miles. Manila in the Philippines has the world’s highest population density with 119,600 people per square mile. Neom would have 686,000 people per square mile, which is almost six times the population density of Manila.”
“The Wall Street Journal reviewed 2300 pages of documents put together by Consultants at BCG McKenzie and Oliver Wyman, the consultants were directed by MBS to help turn his idea into a reality. And the documents highlight that the project is so ambitious that it incorporates many technologies that don’t yet exist.”
“The Line is going to be 500 meters tall, which is about the same height as Taipei 101, which was the tallest building in the world when it was built 20 years ago at a cost of just under $2 billion. Taipei 101 is 75 meters wide, so you would need to build 13.3 of these for each kilometer. 2,270 of these buildings would equal just one wall of The Line. For both city walls you would need 4,540 Taipei 101s.”
“And that’s just the external walls. There’s still all the inner buildings, the hyperloop, the floating gardens, the autonomous flying pods and the artificial moon. Let’s not forget power plants, water desalination plants, airport, sewage treatment, human gene editing facilities, and everything else needed for a modern city.”
“The Line will have about half of the population of New York City, and thus should require around 5,000 megawatts of power per day. It might need a lot more than that, as water desalination is very energy intensive, and being based in the desert, people might want to run their air conditioners most of the time.”
“New York City requires hundreds of power plants to run, but gets around one third of its power from four nuclear power plants. Let’s say The Line is a very energy efficient city and can get by on one third of the power consumed by New York City. You would then need to build four or five nuclear power plants to supply that power.”
“Each power plant would cost between $6 and $9 billion, so we’re looking at $30 to $40 billion just for the power plants to supply electricity.”
“The 4,500 140 Taipei 101 buildings needed just as the exterior walls for The Line would cost $9.1 trillion dollars, assuming that construction costs have not gone up in 20 years, which they probably have. MBS was initially going to build all of this for $200 billion, which is less than 2% of the cost I’ve estimated for just the walls.”
“Thunderf00t estimated the overall build cost of a city like this to be $100 trillion.” Thunderf00t also looked at the failure of all of Dubai’s land reclamation projects in the Persian gulf save the very first, none of which are remotely as ambitious as Neom.
I think you get the idea.
Murdering the occasional jihad-friendly journalist aside, MBS actually has carried out some significant reforms (like sidelining the hardline Wahabbist clerics), but his pet Neom project is clearly 95% delusional. Despite which, they’ve already done fairly ridiculous amounts of earthmoving on the project.
They are a few decent ideas among the delusions: It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Saudis to incubate a tech sector, they get enough sun that getting into manufacturing solar panels to help plan for a post-oil future might be a viable option, and they probably should invest in desalinization plants to develop some agricultural self-sufficiency.
But the idea of building the full Line is a delusional fantasy.
It’s been a week of petty frustrations, with simple things like paying for online transactions made impossible by websites that send out the wrong information despite the right information being on file. Speaking of frustration, Americans continue to be battered by high inflation, blacks continue to abandon Biden, and it turns out that the Pope might, just might, be Catholic after all.
A hotter-than-expected consumer price index report rattled Wall Street Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading.
Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Fed officials say it is useful in the current climate as they see elevated housing inflation as a temporary problem and not as good a measure of underlying prices.
Supercore accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March, the highest in 11 months.
Tom Fitzpatrick, managing director of global market insights at R.J. O’Brien & Associates, said if you take the readings of the last three months and annualize them, you’re looking at a supercore inflation rate of more than 8%, far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal.
According to a Wall Street Journal Swing State Poll, blacks, especially black males are abandoning Biden in huge numbers.
While most Black men said they intend to support Biden, some 30% of them in the poll said they were either definitely or probably going to vote for the former Republican president. There isn’t comparable WSJ swing-state polling from 2020, but Trump received votes from 12% of Black men nationwide that year, as recorded by AP VoteCast, a large poll of the electorate.
That’s an 18 percentage point swing, minimum, for black males, if the national results and the swing state voting is similar.
By confirmed, I mean those who said they intended to vote for Trump.
The gap is even larger if we factor in undecided voters. Biden is down by a massive 30 percentage points vs 2020.
Good: A teacher helping her son with homework. Bad: A teacher helping her son force female students into sex trafficking. “Klein Cain High School cosmetology teacher Kedria McMath Grigsby is accused of helping her son, Roger Magee, force the troubled teens into prostitution.”
Investigative science writer Paul Homewood last year discovered considerable tampering in 2022 with the recent CET record. He initially found that in version one, the summer of 1995 had been 0.1°C warmer than 2018. In version 2, the two years swapped places with 1995 cooled by 0.07°C and 2018 warmed by 0.13°C. Alerted to these changes, Homewood then analysed the full record from version 1 to 2, and the graph below shows what he found.
As can be seen, the adjustments up to 1970 are small with ups and downs offsetting each other. Homewood then found that the years from 1970 to 2003 had been cooled markedly, followed by significant rises to 2022. Homewood concludes that “unfortunately it is part of a much wider tampering with temperature globally – and the tampering is always one way, cooling the past and heating the present”. Given that we now know that the Met Office has been using class 4 statistics for two thirds of its database since 2006, the recent higher adjustments would seem to call for clarifying explanations from the state-funded Met Office.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has announced his interim charges for the Senate, a set of 57 issues he is calling on Senate Committees to investigate and research ahead of the legislative session next year.
The list of charges runs the gamut of issues conservatives have called on the legislature to address, including property tax relief, protecting Texas land from hostile foreign ownership, and strengthening laws preventing electioneering by school districts and other political subdivisions.
Some of the biggest reform proposals, however, have been reserved for higher education.
Patrick has asked the Higher Education Subcommittee to study and make recommendations regarding the role of ‘faculty senates’, antisemitism on college campuses, as well as to review the implementation of a new state law banning DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) in state universities that went into effect earlier this year.
“The Senate’s work to study the list of charges will begin in the coming weeks and months. Following completion of hearings, committees will submit reports with their specific findings and policy recommendations before December 1, 2024,” said Patrick.
When you think Houston Democratic Congresswoman Shelia Jackson Lee has already said the stupidest thing she possibly can, she goes out and proves you wrong.
Thanks to New York City’s idiotic rent control laws, not only would a hotel guest refuse to pay rent or leave, but a court actually ruled that he was the owner of the hotel.
First class stamps are going up to 73 cents. Thanks, Joe Biden.
If the commies running Vietnam accuse someone of a crime, I don’t automatically trust them, but Truong My Lan may actually be guilty.
Behind the stately yellow portico of the colonial-era courthouse in Ho Chi Minh City, a 67-year-old Vietnamese property developer was sentenced to death on Thursday for looting one of the country’s largest banks over a period of 11 years.
It’s a rare verdict – she is one of very few women in Vietnam to be sentenced to death for a white collar crime.
The decision is a reflection of the dizzying scale of the fraud. Truong My Lan was convicted of taking out $44bn (£35bn) in loans from the Saigon Commercial Bank. The verdict requires her to return $27bn, a sum prosecutors said may never be recovered. Some believe the death penalty is the court’s way of trying to encourage her to return some of the missing billions.
The habitually secretive communist authorities were uncharacteristically forthright about this case, going into minute detail for the media. They said 2,700 people were summoned to testify, while 10 state prosecutors and around 200 lawyers were involved.
The evidence was in 104 boxes weighing a total of six tonnes. Eighty-five others were tried with Truong My Lan, who denied the charges and can appeal.
All of the defendants were found guilty. Four received life in jail. The rest were given prison terms ranging from 20 years to three years suspended. Truong My Lan’s husband and niece received jail terms of nine and 17 years respectively.
Snip.
By 2011, Truong My Lan was a well-known business figure in Ho Chi Minh City, and she was allowed to arrange the merger of three smaller, cash-strapped banks into a larger entity: Saigon Commercial Bank.
Vietnamese law prohibits any individual from holding more than 5% of the shares in any bank. But prosecutors say that through hundreds of shell companies and people acting as her proxies, Truong My Lan actually owned more than 90% of Saigon Commercial.
They accused her of using that power to appoint her own people as managers, and then ordering them to approve hundreds of loans to the network of shell companies she controlled.
The amounts taken out are staggering. Her loans made up 93% of all the bank’s lending.
According to prosecutors, over a period of three years from February 2019, she ordered her driver to withdraw 108 trillion Vietnamese dong, more than $4bn (£2.3bn) in cash from the bank, and store it in her basement.
That much cash, even if all of it was in Vietnam’s largest denomination banknotes, would weigh two tonnes.
I've been waiting 29 years to tell this story about OJ and his days at USC. Now that he's dead (may he burn in hell) I have a story that I signed an NDA for that is no longer valid. I was a junior at USC working in Topping Student Center on campus in 1995. I was an administrative…
Lies trying to hide how bad the Biden Recession sucks continue to unravel, a mini Texas-vs.-California update, Ukraine makes another oil refinery go boom, true depths of human depravity, some Bill Burr and Critical Drinker links, and two tons of Murica. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
Against expectations of a small improvement from -11.3 to -10.0, the headline sentiment gauge dropped to -14.4 (the lowest end of analysts’ forecasts).
Furthermore, the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month.
Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated declines this month.
The new orders index – a key measure of demand – dropped 17 points to -11.8 after briefly turning positive last month.
The capacity utilization index edged down five points to -5.7, and the shipments index plunged from 0.1 to -15.4.
The decline in new orders came alongside a surge in prices as raw materials costs rose to 13-month highs…
That has the stench of stagflation lathered all over it.
Also worse than reported: employment numbers. “Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000.”
We first have to go back to December 2022, when we reported something shocking: as part of its data analysis of the “more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program”, the Philadelphia Fed found that the BLS had overstated jobs to the tune of 1.1 million! This is what the Philadelphia Fed wrote in its quarterly Early Benchmark Revision of State Payroll Employment report at the time:
Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.
So what did this “more accurate”, “more comprehensive” report find? It found that…
In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
Lots of detailed analysis snipped.
Putting it all together, we now know – as the Philly Fed reported first – that the labor market is far weaker than conventionally believed. In fact, no less than 800,000 payrolls are “missing” when one uses the far more accurate Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data rather than the BLS’ woefully inaccurate and politically mandated payrolls “data”, and if one looks back the the monthly gains across most of 2023, one gets not 230K jobs added on average every month but rather 130K.
Of course, none of that paints Bidenomics in a flattering picture, because while one can at least pretend that issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days to add 3 million jos per year is somewhat acceptable, learning that that ridiculous amount buys 800,000 jobs less is hardly the endorsement that the White House needs.
I think I link a story like this every year: “California Leads Among U.S. States Sending People to Texas in 2022. Florida and New York combined sent fewer people to Texas than California.” Leave any leftwing politics behind when you move…
California has a $55 billion deficit. But don’t worry, for the 24-25 fiscal year, it’s a $73 billion deficit.
A Russian-backed “propaganda” network has been broken up for spreading anti-Ukraine stories and paying unnamed European politicians, according to authorities in several countries.
Investigators claimed it used the popular Voice of Europe website as a vehicle to pay politicians.
The Czech Republic and Poland said the network aimed to influence European politics.
Voice of Europe did not respond to the BBC’s request for comment.
Czech media, citing intelligence sources, reported that politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands and Hungary were paid by Voice of Europe in order to influence upcoming elections for the European Parliament.
The German newspaper Der Spiegel said the money was either handed over in cash in covert meetings in Prague or through cryptocurrency exchanges.
Pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk is alleged by the Czech Republic to be behind the network.
Mr Medvedchuk was arrested in Ukraine soon after the Russian invasion, but later transferred to Russia with about 50 prisoners of war in exchange for 215 Ukrainians.
Czech authorities also named Artyom Marchevsky, alleging he managed the day-to-day business of the website. Both men were sanctioned by Czech authorities.
“$100M missing from Bay area trust fund management company. A Bay area father who counted on a local non-profit to handle a trust fund designed for his daughter’s long-term care feels duped.” And this is a trust for special needs kids.
The radical leftists in control of Baltimore City Hall have plunged the metro area just north of Washington, DC, into apocalyptic levels. We advise readers to entirely avoid the metro area as violent crime spirals out of control.
Failed social justice reforms, defunding the police, and widespread mistrust of the police have resulted in a skeleton police force that will no longer be able to protect residents in some regions of the city.
Fox Baltimore reported last Tuesday that only three police officers were on duty for the Southern Police District, which includes more than 61,000 residents.
Joe Lieberman, RIP. One of the least reprehensible Democratic senators of the last 30 years or so. But I still remember this:
Don’t click on this link unless you want to plumb the depths of human depravity. Noteworthy: “He and his husband.”
Stellantis, AKA The European Monster That Ate Chrysler, just just laid off a whole bunch of white collar workers. Note their mention of focusing on “implementing our EV product offensive.” Oh yeah, they’re boned.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declares victory over Disney, as the latter has dropped their lawsuit over the the elimination of their special district status.
Sean Combs, AKA “Puff Daddy,” AKA “Diddy,” raided by the FBI. “A source close to the investigation told NBC News that the raid was connected to allegations of sex-trafficking and sexual assault and the solicitation and distribution of illegal narcotics and firearms.” “Source close” caveats apply.
The federal government is going to allow a shuttered nuclear power plant to be restarted. “The federal government announced that it would provide a $1.5 billion loan to restart a nuclear power plant in southwestern Michigan. NJ-based Holtec International acquired the 800-megawatt Palisades plant in 2022 with plans to dismantle it, but with support from the state of Michigan and the Biden administration, the emphasis has shifted to restarting the nuclear power plant by late 2025 instead.” Not wild about the loan part, but restarting America’s nuclear energy growth is long overdue.
Used Japanese homes are worthless Not just because of the shrinking population, but because they’re designed to be.
The Critical Drinker is not impressed with the Road House remake. “The Patrick Swayze original wasn’t exactly peak cinema. It was dumb and over-the-top and silly, and I don’t imagine people were exactly crying out for a remake. But damn, man, it’s like Citizen Kane compared to this version.”
School tries to ban American flag from truck. Result: Two tons of Murica.
Twitch is cracking down on streams that “focus on intimate body parts.” After watching this, I have one question: Where exactly did the lady featured obtain her “automatic butt jiggler?”
Feel-good crime aftermath story:
Dog shot during the robbery given a warm send off by hospital staff after undergoing multiple surgeries..pic.twitter.com/OnSjqmRt2u
Indeed, this is the first interest rate hike for Japan in 17 years.
According to Keynesian economics, Japan should have experienced an economic boom from all that monetary stimulus. It did not. Prices were stagnant. Wages were stagnant. GDP growth was anemic.
Yet deficit spending remains the preferred policy solution of just about every damn country in the world.
Back in the dim mists of time (i.e., the 1980s), Japan Inc. was going to take over the world. That didn’t happen either. Instead, the Japanese bubble, based in huge measure on wildly unsustainable real estate valuations (“At the peak of the bubble economy, Tokyo real estate could sell for as much as US$139,000 per square foot, which was nearly 350 times as much as equivalent space in Manhattan. By that reckoning, the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth as much as the entire US state of California.”) popped. There then followed three decades of economic stagnation.
