Posts Tagged ‘Kamala Harris’
Monday, February 18th, 2019
Sort of a static week in the Clown Car update, with no one getting In or Out. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke all inch closer to the starting line. Update: Bernie Sanders is In.
This week’s 538 roundup.
Some Social Justice Warrior hand-wringing from Politico.
Enjoy the first “the field is too crowded and the longshots should drop out” piece.
Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.
Now on to the clown car itself:
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out. Though 538 is still including her in their roundup…
Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Learning toward In. He’s visiting Iowa again.
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Hamlet still hasn’t made up his mind. Or has he? “Former Vice President Joe Biden is almost certain to run for president in 2020, a source with direct knowledge told Fox News on Thursday. The source said the timing of an announcement is still up in the air.” Oh thanks, that clears everything up. Unlike polls of actual Democratic voters, Biden doesn’t poll well among democratic strategists.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning toward In. Pledges to toss in $500 million of his own money for just the primary. Yeah, but can he get anybody outside New York City to vote for him? “Bloomberg: Somewhat Less Loathsome Than Some Alternatives” doesn’t seem like a slogan to set the world on fire…
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Booker hates meat. Show me a man who hates BBQ and I’ll show you a man who will never be President of the United States of America…
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. In a bold departure from the “let’s try being as far left as I possible can” strategy pursued by most of the other candidates, Brown opposes the Medicare for all proposals endorsed by Harris, Warren, Sanders, Booker and Gillibrand. Suddenly a strong contender for the “Not A Complete Lunatic” lane if he gets in and Biden bows out.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. He’s visiting Iowa, too. Hey, who doesn’t want to visit Iowa in February? That’s just a totally normal thing people not running for President do…
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. He’s taking shots at Vice President Mike Pence because why wouldn’t he?
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Gets the fawning “he could beat Trump” profile in The Hill. Vows to visit all 50 states.
Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But: “Hillary Refuses To Answer Question On 2020 Run.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Still thinking of running, even after the Amazon deal blew up in his face. “I have not ruled it out.” He should look on the bright side: His chance of being elected President is exactly the same as it was before the Amazon deal blew up…
Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. In New Hampshire.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Axios profile. David Wiegel talks to some of her supporters. She and Booker visited New Hampshire.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. Kirsten Gillibrand, New York’s Super-Adaptoid.
Gillibrand’s family wasn’t quite as wealthy and connected as the Kennedys or the Bushes, but that’s a high bar to clear. Her grandmother, Polly Noonan, more or less ran the Democratic Machine in Albany politics for about four decades. When this comes up in profiles, it’s usually presented as a sweet story of a grandmother taking her granddaughter to hand out bumper stickers and stir an early interest in politics. Her father Douglas Rutnik was a well-connected lobbyist, close to Republican governor George Pataki and Senator Alphonse D’Amato.
Snip.
Gillibrand describes herself as having “the stereotypical 1970s middle-class experience” and the Washington Post described her upbringing as that of a “middle-class Roman Catholic Albany schoolgirl.” Come on. Most middle-class families don’t have the city’s “mayor for life” coming over to their house most nights. Gillibrand attended one of, if not the most, prestigious private high schools in the state, got into Dartmouth, studied abroad in China and Taiwan, got into UCLA law, and interned for D’Amato and the U.S. Attorney’s office, and, from September to December 1990, the United Nations over in Vienna, Austria. (The U.N. does not pay interns, so Gillibrand’s family could afford to cover the costs of her taking an unpaid internship over in Europe for four months.) The Rutnik family may not have been fabulously wealthy, but they were not “stereotypical middle class.”
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. California’s new governor Gavin Newsom endorsed her. Ann Althouse notices more Kamala Harris worship from the New York Times. How in the tank are the MSM for Harris? They’re going shopping with her:
Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably In. He came out for socialized medicine while speaking in New Hampshire.
Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder: Probably? Mother Jones says it sounds like he’s running, with “voting rights” as the theme of his campaign. Slight upgrade from Maybe.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He pulled in all of $243,000 in donations. That gets you, what? Three staffers and a modestly equipped campaign office?
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Visiting Iowa.
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out. But he’s still spewing the same hard left garbage other candidates are, so who knows?
Lyndon LaRouche: Out. Mainly due to having died. That, and some states ban convicted felons from appearing on the ballot. But mostly the dead thing. Just posting this to see if you’re paying attention. On the other hand, in 1996 and 2000, LaRouche received more Democratic convention delegates (two and six, respectively) than most of the 2020 Democratic crop of contenders will ever receive…
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Sunday he’s inching closer to making a decision on whether or not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. McAuliffe had previously set a self-imposed deadline of March 31 for announcing his intentions.”
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful. “Jeff Merkley Worries Republicans Could Target His Senate Seat If He Runs for President.” Dude, you’re from freaking Oregon. Sounds like he’s figured out he has no chance in the POTUS race and is looking for an excuse to not run. A downgrade from Maybe.
Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? He’s still thinking about running.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe A Dallas Observer writer thinks he’s going to run, and he’s traipsing around the Midwest. I heard a rumor that he was going to challenge Cornyn in the the 2020 Senate race, but I just don’t see a man who so obviously loves the media spotlight to bow out of a run as a serious Presidential candidate in order to lose statewide in Texas again. Although, thanks to the LBJ rule, he could actually run for both…
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? Still “seriously considering.”
Update: Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. He announced on Vermont Public Radio this morning. He’s reportedly already recorded his announcement video. Like Tim Conway playing the Oldest Man in the World on The Carol Burnett Show, Sanders continues to inch ever closer to the starting line…
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. He’s visting Iowa, which is his home state, a factor which no doubt helps delude him into thinking he can win…
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook. She visited Nevada, which is the third primary state after Iowa and New Hampshire. An oldie but a goodie: Elizabeth Warren or Lyndon LaRouche?
Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. In New Hampshire. Profiled on Nightline.
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook.
Tags:2020 Presidential Race, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Bill De Blasio, Cory Booker, Democrats, Elections, Eric Holder, Eric Swalwell, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Joe Biden, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Lyndon LaRouche, Media Watch, Michael Bennet, Michael Bloomberg, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg, Sherrod Brown, Tim Ryan, Tulsi Gabbard
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Media Watch | No Comments »
Monday, February 11th, 2019
Welcome to another Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update! Amy Klobuchar is In, Mitch Landrieu is Probably Out, Elizabeth Warren gives a speech, and Biden is just biding his time.
Weekly 538 roundup.
Boston Globe tracker.
Questions the media should (but won’t) ask Democratic Presidential hopefuls. Like “Specifically, what limits, if any, do you believe should be placed on abortion?” and “How do you propose eliminating nearly 90 percent of American energy usage in 11 years?”
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out. She didn’t launch a campaign during her state of the union response, so I think we can safely assume she’s out.
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Learning toward In. “‘We’ve got a million people that are going to run, which I think is great,’ Bennet said Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press. But, he added, ‘I think having one more voice in that conversation that’s focused on America’s future, I don’t think would hurt.’ Bennet, 54, cast himself as a centrist Democrat who would bring business and managerial experience to the crowded field.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Hamlet continues to seek the council of fellow Democrats, especially senators.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Promises a decision by the end of February.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Twenty things you probably didn’t know about Cory Booker. Including the fact he was a college football player and has more Native American ancestry than Elizabeth Warren (not a high barrier).
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. “It appears a presidential run from Sen. Sherrod Brown is gaining momentum with voters.” And he gave a speech in New Hampshire.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1. “The 2020 Democrat with a full-fledged Republican fan club.”
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Scheduled to appear on Colbert.
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Are you interested in a piece on Castro’s foreign policy ideas from the Council on Foreign elations blog? Me neither, but here it is.
Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. All quiet on the Clinton front this week. Those new Elder Signs must be working…
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Reportedly searching for staffers for a possible run, much to the horror of everyone around him. Upgrade from Maybe.
Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. He’s been running for two years.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Today’s MSM hit piece on Gabbard comes from The Independent: “White nationalists and Russian propaganda machine throw support behind 2020 candidate.” And Gabbard can’t be wild that former Klansman David Duke is supporting her.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Evidently she’s not running a well-oiled machine, which lead to AP reporter Meg Kinnard to being openly hostile to Gillibrand’s comms director.
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. Tons of fawning in-the-tank MSM coverage omitted. But The Guardian wonders just how genuine Harris’ shift to the leftwing church of what’s happening now really is. Also, here’s more evidence that the establishment’s “in the tank for Harris”:
See also this post if you haven’t already.
Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably In. He hired an Iowa staffer.
Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder: Maybe. Has a speech scheduled in Iowa…but only one. Not seeing much activity, which begs the question: Is Holder not actively doing anything to support a possible run, or is the MSM freezing out mention of what he is doing to help clear the lane for Kamala Harris?
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He’s running on climate change and gun control. Why not not just go ahead and adopt “Screw You, Middle America” as your campaign slogan?
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Twitter feed. She announced she was running Sunday, outdoors in a snowstorm, following scathing articles from former Klobuchar aides about how she was a rageholic who treated staffers like shit. “How Amy Klobuchar Could Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination.” I really need to do a piece on how Silver’s 2020 democratic voter demographic breakdown is bunk…
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out. “I don’t think I’m going to do it.” Downgrade from Maybe.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Says he would “like to” run and will make a decision by March 31.
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe.
Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? “U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, who was in New Hampshire last weekend amid speculation that he might run for president, will give a speech at the Brookings Institution next week where he plans to outline his ‘vision for the future of U.S foreign policy,’ according to his campaign.”
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? In his talk with Oprah Winfrey, he says he’ll decide by the end of February. He’s giving an anti-border wall speech in El Paso the same time President Trump is giving his speech in El Paso. Dallas Morning News writer wonders: “Has he missed his window of opportunity?”
“It feels a little saturated at the moment,” said Brigham Hoegh, the Democratic chairwoman in Audubon County, in western Iowa. “Kamala [Harris] made a big show and looks really strong in the last couple of weeks. I feel like he could still jump in, but there’s a ton of people in the race that are getting attention. He hasn’t been top of the mind lately.”
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe?. You know that Sherrod Brown speech in New Hampshire? Ryan had signage there. “Youngstown-area Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan’s smiling face greeted the crowd of 350 who showed up to hear Brown’s speech, part of his visit to the early-voting states in the presidential primary.” Might be nothing. Might be just Ryan jacking with another Ohio Democrat. But still an upgrade over “Doubtful.” Entrails cloudy, ask again later.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. The Atlantic says he’s a lock for the race and jumping in this month. He and O’Rourke are leading the small donor derby.
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. Soon: “He has already added staff and offices in some key early states as he builds out a national campaign infrastructure.”
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Ann Althouse thought Warren gave a great kickoff speech. Also see this post if you haven’t already.
Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Get’s a Marie Claire profile. Well, they do have about nine times the circulation of The Nation…
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. The longest of longshots is flogging the universal basic income lunacy.
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Bill De Blasio, Border Controls, Cory Booker, Democrats, El Paso, Elizabeth Warren, Iowa, Joe Biden, John Delaney, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Meg Kinnard, Michael Bennet, Michael Bloomberg, Oprah Winfrey, Pete Buttigieg, Sherrod Brown, Steve Bullock, Tim Ryan, Tulsi Gabbard
Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Elections | No Comments »
Thursday, February 7th, 2019
Hey, remember all the way back to four days ago, when Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris decried identity politics?
Or maybe all the way back to last week, where she declared:
We, as Democrats and progressives, cannot afford to be guilty of putting people in these narrow boxes based on what we have decided is their identity instead of seeing that they have lived full lives. They are full people, as multifaceted as the other people we know.
Well, guess what?
Translation: Get back in your narrow box!
That’s a laundry list of Social Justice Warrior knee-jerk identity politics accusations against anyone opposing their agenda of the moment; the only surprise is slipping in “antisemitism” instead of “Islamophobia.” And by “transphobia” she means people who have the unmitigated gall to believe that there are two biological sexes, determined at the genetic level long before birth. Which, of course, plays such a central course in Russian foreign policy. And I sincerely doubt Russia saw “homophobia” as a weakness, since Russia itself is far from a hotbed of gay rights.
If Kamala Harris wants to see who is using identity politics to divide America, she should look in a mirror.
(Think of this as the first of series of “Identity Politics is destroying the Democratic Party” posts. By the time I get to the next one, I assume the past racial sins of 9 or 10 more Virginia Democrats will have been brought to light…)
Tags:2020 Presidential Race, Democrats, Elections, Kamala Harris, Russia, victimhood
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Social Justice Warriors, Uncategorized | No Comments »
Monday, February 4th, 2019
This week in the clown car update: Spartacus is In and LA mayor Eric Garcetti is Out. Oh, and Oprah’s spiritual advisor joined the race, because why the hell not?
This is the point in campaign cycles when key campaign staffers and donors stop returning the calls of undeclared longshots, either joining up with a declared campaign or waiting for a bigger fish (“Sure, Mike, I think you’d make a great President, but old Joe Biden and I go way back…”). Biden can wait. Bloomberg can wait. O’Rourke has enough residual fawning media afterglow and a big enough contributor list that he can probably wait as well. Beyond them, the train has already sounded the whistle and announced final boarding. There will be another one along in 2023…
An Emerson poll shows that only Biden beats President Donald Trump in Iowa, while Trump beats everyone else. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says that internal polling shows him in double digits. The problem, of course, is that “internal polls” are always garbage.
538’s weekly roundup. And National Review‘s Jim Geraghty sorts the Democratic candidates by age. “To get a sense of the generational difference, when Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate, Buttigieg, Gabbard, and Castro had not been born yet and O’Rourke was two months old.”
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out. She’s been tapped to give the Democrats state of the union response to President Donald Trump. I have to admit that it would be hilarious if she used the time to launch her own Presidential campaign…
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Maybe. All quiet on the Bennet front.
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Did Biden embrace segregation in 1975? Will being Obama’s Veep inoculate him from charges of racism? We all know the answer to that: If you’re inconvenient for Social Justice Warriors, nothing inoculates you from charges of racism.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. “Michael Bloomberg’s Secret Plans to Take Down Trump.” Can’t be very secret if it’s in The Atlantic, now can it?
Michael Bloomberg has bigger plans for 2020 than running for president. The billionaire and former New York City mayor has been openly dreaming of the White House for 25 years, and spent huge amounts of time and money four times over the past 10 years trying to figure out a way to get himself there.
But he has hesitations about this race, too. He’s not sure there is a realistic space in the Democratic primaries for his centrist record. And he almost certainly won’t run if Joe Biden does, members of his team believe.
Note that “centrist” has now come to mean “not completely insane on law and order issues” in Democratic circles…
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Website. Twitter. Spartacus is in. I predict we see a vicious series of attacks against Booker from a mainstream media desperate to keep him from eating into anointed favorite Kamala Harris’ base. Upgrade from Probably In.
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s calling Trump a racist, so it sounds like he’s already in mid-season far-left pandering form.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. Appeared on ABC’s This Week. Might have peaked upon announcement.
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. In an interview with New York magazine, he says the race is all about immigration, Because Trump. I’m sure he wishes it was, but I bet Democratic strategists who can actually read polls dread seeing that happen…
Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Never mind what Hillary herself said last week, Clinton toady John Podesta says she’s not running. Back in the crypt, Grandma Death. Downgrade from “Maybe.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. New York Times notices that the appetite for De Blasio rivals the popularity of [spins pop culture reference wheel] New Coke. Assuming the pitchman was still Bill Cosby…
Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. He was on Iowa public television, sounding disturbingly normal by Democratic Party chances, so I can only assume he’s toast.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. This week’s obligatory MSM “Tulsi Gabbard is doomed” piece comes via Politico, who claim her campaign is in “disarray.” You know, just like the all those 2017 stories on the Trump White House. Glenn Greenwald goes on to debunk another NBC hit piece: “NBC News, to Claim Russia Supports Tulsi Gabbard, Relies on Firm Just Caught Fabricating Russia Data for the Democratic Party.”
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out. “This is where I want to be, and this is a place where we have so much exciting work to finish.”
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out. Just joined CNN. A downgrade from “Probably Out.”
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Traveling to Iowa.
California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She’s fundraising in Hollywood (where “she disavowed ‘identity politics,'” which I’m guessing doesn’t include any of the leftwing kinds), and the latest fawning profile comes via the Washington Post.
Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Says he’s the guy to beat Trump rather than someone “far left.” Compared to any field but this one, Hickenlooper himself is pretty far left himself…
Addition: Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder: Leaning toward a run. Didn’t want to add him, but he’s speaking in Iowa. Maybe threatening to take votes away from Kamala Harris is the only way to get the MSM to do honest reporting on Fast And Furious…
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He’s very, very upset that Schultz is considering running as an Independent than as a Democrat.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. Get’s a semi-fawning profile from NeverTrumper George Will, with a slam at “skateboarding man-child” Beto O’Rourke along the way.
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe? Zero buzz.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Says he would “like to” run and will make a decision by March 31.”
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe.
Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Maybe? Showed up in new Hampshire to give a speech only to shrug off questions about why he was there.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? He evidently stopped raising money months ago. Also:
A Facebook Live chat he did in response to President Donald Trump’s Oval Office address on immigration earlier this month began with about 2,600 viewers. By the end, after an hour of him walking around his El Paso neighborhood trying to show the calm reality of a border town, and looking at the decorations in friends’ homes, and then sitting on a couch and chatting at length, the viewers steadily dropped to just over 1,000.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. He’s not even in that 538 roundup.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Unnamed sources say he’s running.
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “I’m close to making a decision. I’ll be in New Hampshire tomorrow, so I’m excited for that.” Yes, nothing says “excitement” like midwinter New Hampshire…
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. “Elizabeth Warren plans tour of eastern Iowa towns after ‘big announcement’ in her home state.”
Addition: Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. So let me get this straight: Oprah’s not running, but her spiritual advisor is? She most recently placed fourth in a California congressional race, but Team Kamala must be shitting bricks at the possibility that Oprah might endorse her.
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. I will say he has a lot of events on his calendar…
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Elections, Elizabeth Warren, Eric Garcetti, Eric Holder, George Will, Hillary Clinton, Howard Schultz, Iowa, Jim Geraghty, John Podesta, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Michael Bloomberg, New Hampshire, Oprah Winfrey, Pete Buttigieg, Sherrod Brown, Social Justice Warriors
Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Elections | 1 Comment »
Monday, January 28th, 2019
This week in the clown car update: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is In, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is All But In, and Bobby Francis O’Rourke is sounding a lot more Hamlet-like than heretofore. And a very, very familiar name is once again making noises about a run…
According to this Zogby poll, everything is coming up Milhouse Biden. Biden leads field with 27%, well ahead of Sanders (18%), Warren (9%), Bloomberg (8%), with Harris and O’Rourke at 6%. McAuliffe, Gabbard and Castro all poll at 0%, behind even John Delaney at 1%.
In an Emerson poll of announced candidates, “Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads the field with 43%, Sen. Kamala Harris is at 19%, and Julian Castro is at 12%, with no other candidate reaching double digits.”
538 has their weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings. I haven’t looked at it much because that would be cheating.
Oh, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz says he’s considering an independent run for President. That would spice things up nicely, and Democrats are livid the he might split the anti-Trump vote. His net worth is estimated at just under $3 billion, so he could probably self-fund a serious run.
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out.
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: “I’m thinking about it.” Oh thanks, that’s just super-helpful…
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. Twitter feed. Here’s an Esquire piece that says Biden should run so he can lose badly for his perfidious gestures towards bipartisanship…
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. No announcement, but this week he did some Trump bashing, so of course the media covered it. If he runs it will be on climate change and gun control, which may not be enough intersectional tofu for the SJW faction. He does well in a Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. This week Vanity Fair critiques Booker’s style. To be fair, there’s a lot there to critique, but I also get the impression that the media want to knock a potential rival for Kamala Harris’ presumed voting block out early.
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s boasting about how he could beat Trump in Ohio and New York. Since Hillary beat Trump in New York, the latter is not much of a boast…
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Official website. Facebook page. Twitter feed. Announced this week. First openly gay Presidential candidate to garner any media attention. Served in the Naval Reserve in Afghanistan. Here’s 538 doing the how he could win thing, but even they sound dubious: “Among adults who identified as Democrats, 73 percent of respondents supported gay marriage, according to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey. Independents were close behind at 70 percent. But the same research found support for gay marriage at 51 percent among black adults, an important part of the Democratic coalition.”
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter feed. He hates the fact that you got a tax cut. Also, NBC does some Hispandering about the “historic” nature of his campaign, without ever mentioning the name “Ted Cruz.”
Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Maybe? “Clinton is telling people that she’s not closing the doors to the idea of running in 2020,” Zeleny said on Inside Politics. “I’m told by three people that as recently as this week, she was telling people that, given all this news from the indictments, particularly the Roger Stone indictment, she talked to several people, saying ‘Look, I’m not closing the doors to this.'” Fire up the villager’s torches, boys, Baroness Frankenstein is trying to break out of her crypt! (Hat tip: Red State’s Twitter feed.) Upgrade from “Probably Out.”
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. “De Blasio Dead Last Among NYers’ Picks For President, Poll Shows.” To know him is to loath him…
Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. “Democratic 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney on Thursday earned the approval of the Nashua Telegraph’s editorial board in New Hampshire.” That and $5…
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. The left-wing hit pieces against Gabbard are coming fast and furious. “Is Tulsi Gabbard the Jill Stein of 2020? The Democratic candidate’s perplexing, Bannonesque foreign policy and passivity toward Assad may make her radioactive. And then there is the homophobia.” Man, she sure has somebody (probably the Harris campaign) worried…
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, and he managed to cave in enough to end the teacher’s strike.
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. “Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is a Bizarrely Wretched Public Speaker. Finally a Woman Who Makes Hillary Clinton Look Authentic by Comparison!”
California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. Had a kickoff rally in Oakland. She’s stacking her campaign with ex-Hillary Clinton staffers. Because there’s no way that could possibly backfire.
Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. In Iowa.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He wants to run on climate change, but he’s having to deal with a measles outbreak in his state.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In. “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Amy Klobuchar.” “One of her most influential mentors is former vice president Walter Mondale.” And if that doesn’t say “Electoral Juggernaut”…
New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. “I will make a decision by March 31.”
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. “Oregon senator postpones decision on presidential bid.”
Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Headed back to New Hampshire February 2nd.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Addition: Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Dropped Out. I wasn’t including this guy because I didn’t think he had any chance, and evidently he came to the same conclusion. Listing him here only because he was included in that Emerson poll.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe? The machine is in place, but where’s the driver? He’s starting to sound a lot more Hamlet-like. “Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to ‘raise expectations” about a 2020 bid.” Sure doesn’t sound like someone with a fire in the belly to run. Downgrade from Probably In.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: All but In. Website. Twitter feed. Reports say he is “set to announce he will run for president in 2020.”
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning toward In. “Can we win? There is a path. It’s not an easy path. It’s a steep mountain to climb and I’m up for it. Right now, I have to talk with my family.” Also says there’s a “chance” he could quarterback the Rams next year.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She wants an unconstitutional wealth tax. In a sign that America’s opioid epidemic has gotten out of hand, George Will calls Warren “Democrat’s Thatcher, if they dare.” Trump Derangement Syndrome is a helluva drug…
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Yet here’s a Rolling Stone interview with him, because I run a full service blog. “In a year when the progressive Democratic platform is coalescing around variations of Medicare-for-All, free college and the Green New Deal, presidential candidate Andrew Yang stands apart — with a bold proposal to provide a ‘Freedom Dividend’ of $1,000 a month to every adult in America.” I look forward to the forthcoming Yang Free Pony Proposal…
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Amy Klobuchar, Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Bill De Blasio, Cory Booker, Elections, Elizabeth Warren, Eric Garcetti, George Will, Hillary Clinton, Howard Schultz, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Joe Biden, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Richard Ojeda, Sherrod Brown, Starbucks, Terry McAuliffe
Posted in Democrats, Elections | 3 Comments »
Monday, January 21st, 2019
This week in the clown car update: Lots climbing in, one getting out. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and California Senator Kamala Harris are both In and Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey. JR. is Out. Plus a few more no-hope longshots considering a run.
Before we get to the individual candidates, here’s a table from that January 14 Marist poll on Democratic contenders:
Usual poll caveats apply, but Biden has a huge advantage over the rest of the field in both favorability and name recognition. And for all the Betomania among the chattering classes, the majority of possible Democratic voters have never even heard of him. Highest unfavorables are Bernie Sanders (bitter Hillary cadres at work there) and Michael Bloomberg. In fact, Bloomberg is alone in having a net favorability rating of zero.
538 offers up speculation on how longshot Democrats could potentially build a winning coalition, with pentagonal diagrams that look vaguely like cutaways of a Wankel rotary engine. They’re also doing a similar weeekly update of candidate and potential candidate doings that I only noticed when I was about 80% through this post.
Oh, and National Review says all the Democratic candidates suck.
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Probably Out, considering a senate run instead.
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Addition: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Considering a run. Bennet told Colorado Public Radio he was seriously considering a run, and just changed his Twitter handle from “BennetForCO” to “MichaelBennet.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. His completely-devoid-of-interest Twitter feed. There was talk of Biden announcing on Tuesday, but he also has an event in Grand Prairie, Texas on Thursday. Chris Smith at Vanity Fair says Biden is the sell high candidate. Since this comes from Vanity Fair, my working assumption is that it must be wrong…
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he’s not too old to run (the same age as Bernie Sanders). That National Review piece says “He doesn’t mesh with the Democratic party we see every day in the national media, but he’s intelligent, shrewd, and willing to spend more money than Croesus on securing the nomination and defeating Trump. Only a fool would dismiss him.”
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. He picked up the all-important Jimmy Carter endorsement. This is two Democratic Presidential Clown Car updates in a row I’ve mentioned Jimmy Carter. I’m not such which of the seven seals that opens.
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting a bunch of early primary states, including Iowa.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in. Has a Facebook page. This week he got a fawning Washington Post profile.
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out. “After two months of considering it, I have concluded that the best way for me to fight for the America that so many of us believe in is to stay in the U.S. Senate and not run for the presidency in 2020.”
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Campaigning in New Hampshire, he says he would not pardon Trump. Also promises not to punch out Mike Tyson.
Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue. Beautiful plumage…
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He’s sure acting like he’s running. “People who criticize de Blasio for being more interested in national politics than the local scene aren’t wrong.” Translation: As Mayor, he sucks!
Maryland Representative John K. Delaney: In. Has raised nearly $5 million. I misspelled his name “Delany” last week and nobody noticed. Want to know his views on Israel? I didn’t think so, but here they are anyway.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter feed. Howard Dean says she’s not qualified to be President. And if anyone knows about not being qualified to be President…
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but it’s sort of hard to run for president when you have to deal with a teacher’s strike.
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably Out.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Official website. Official Twitter feed. Ended 2018 with over $10 million in her campaign bank account.
California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter feed. She announced today, Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, as befitting the MSM favorite they hope can re-knit the Obama coalition. The New York Times piece says the date was also meant to evoke Shirley Chisholm, the black Democratic congressman who ran for President in 1972, which suggests that Harris will come in 7th against a nominee who eventually loses 49 states to Trump. Evidently she’s leaning toward Crack Charm City as her headquarters. National Review has “Twenty Things You Probably Didn’t Know about Kamala Harris,” including her being Willie Brown’s mistress, and her anti-civil liberties stance on things like linking collected DNA evidence to family members and charging the parents of truant kids.
Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. No real news, so enjoy the delusional fantasy of two USA Today writers calling for a Hickenlooper-Kaisch national unity ticket. I’m sure the notion was very well-received down at the coffee shop nearest the shuttered offices of The Weekly Standard.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter feed. Here he is yammering about climate change in the Washington Post.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably Out.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Leaning toward In, playing “the family wants me to run” card.
New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: Maybe.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Because we just haven’t had enough of the Clintons…
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Maybe. Right now he’s making “Fundraising is hard!” sounds. Most recently seen banging the impeachment drum over that Buzzfeed fake Russian collusion “bombshell.”
Addition: Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Considering a run. Because there just weren’t enough longshot congressmen on this list to update before.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Says he’s hitting the road because he’s “in a funk,” and I’m presuming it’s not the James Brown kind. Between this and the Instagram dentist visit, I’m wondering if O’Rouke is going to be the presidential candidate equivalent of The Woman Who Overshares Her Depression On Facebook Fishing For Sympathy, because that would be both really sad and weirdly hilarious. An Oprah interview looms next month.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Doubtful. I’m not seeing any signs of a run.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. He’s in South Carolina for MLK weekend. I think Bernie likes the attention of running for President too much to stop.
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Still considering.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter feed. She’s also visiting South Carolina.
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.
Last week I linked to a prediction market website that had Democratic presidential odds. Last week O’Rourke was on top. This week he’s been eclipsed by Harris. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:
- Kamala Harris
- Beto O’Rourke
- Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Bill De Blasio, Bob Casey, Cory Booker, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Eric Garcetti, Global Warming, Howard Dean, Israel, Jay Inslee, Jeff Merkley, Jimmy Carter, Joe Biden, John Delaney, John Hickenlooper, John Kasich, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Bennet, Michael Bloomberg, New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg, Seth Moulton, Sherrod Brown, Shirley Chisholm, South Carolina, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard
Posted in Democrats, Elections | 3 Comments »
Monday, January 14th, 2019
More Presidential race news popping up left and right, mainly that Tulsi Gabbard and Julian Castro are both officially In, Tom Steyer is Out, and that some of the people I had down as probably out are already grubbing for money and hiring staffers. I’ve also started adding campaign websites where known.
No more categories, just a long, long, long list of candidates. Climb in the clown car, aspiring candidates! It will be a year or so before voters start tossing you out…
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Doubtful.
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning toward running. “Joe Biden has told some top Democrats that he’s running for president, Axios reported Saturday. The former vice president even set Tuesday as a likely announcement date.” Presumably the Trans-Am is suitably waxed…
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Making noises like he’s getting in. Says he can self-fund and will decide in the next couple of months.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. Making noises about protecting his left flank.
Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Not seeing any signs yet.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Probably running. He’s visiting Iowa, which suggests he’s in…
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Maybe, leaning toward out. Hearing a lot of boilerplate waffling right now.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward in, and reportedly reaching out to potential staffers in Iowa.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Probably in, but who cares. Has a Facebook page.
Former President Jimmy Carter: Not Running. Look, he actually commented on it. I’m just putting this in here to see if you’re awake…
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Here’s coverage of his announcement and his official website.
Former First Lady, New York Senator and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not, despite the fact that she just will not shut up. Other candidates are reportedly seeking her blessing, presumably with the soundtrack to The Godfather playing in the background.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Maybe. He announced he hadn’t ruled out a run. I can see his campaign being boosted by New Yorkers who feel his absence from the city can only improve municipal governance. An upgrade from “All But Out.”
Maryland Representative John K. Delany: In. Has raised nearly $5 million.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Official website. This piece on why parts of the hard left hate Gabbard, which seems to boil down to “she doesn’t hate Trump enough and was prematurely pro-Syrian pullout, as well as being pro-Bernie,” though I would take the geopolitical analysis with several grains of salt. I like her chances better than Elizabeth Warren, and she’s much prettier than Kamala Harris. And she just received her first hit piece from the left. Someone obviously considers her a threat…
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run, but I’m not hearing much buzz.
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not.
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: Probably In. She’s staffing up for a run. An upgrade over Probably Out.
Former Vice President Al Gore: No signs of a run.
California Senator Kamala Harris: All but in.
Outgoing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Has been meeting with donors, along with…
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably not.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. It would cut into his wind-surfing.
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Still considering a run.
New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Conflicting reports as to whether he’ll run, and one commenter on the last roundup mentioned him. Arguing for no: Ask anyone “What do you love about New Orleans?” and not one person will reply “The honest, efficient governance!”
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run. Another guy looking around for money.
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sure looks like he’s running. And it sure looks like nobody cares.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Oprah is interviewing him in Times Square next month. Golly, sounds like the perfect time to announce a run, doesn’t it?
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe? All the buzz seems to be from the middle of last year; nothing recent.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running.
Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out. Added to the list just to subtract him…
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Probably running. Visiting South Carolina, an early primary state.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. It’s a tough call whether she or Kamala Harris are more pissed about Tulsi Gabbard entering the race.
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Probably not running.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares.
You can see odds on the usual suspects as well as all sorts of unlikely people running. Their current ranked odds on the Dem nominee are:
- Beto O’Rourke
- Kamala Harris
- Joe Biden
- Bernie Sanders
- Elizabeth Warren
I think those are more realistic than that Daily Kos poll.
Any serious potential candidates I’m missing?
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Bill De Blasio, Bob Casey, Democrats, Elections, Eric Swalwell, Hillary Clinton, Jay Inslee, Jimmy Carter, Joe Biden, John Hickenlooper, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Mitch Landrieu, Oprah Winfrey, Pete Buttigieg, Sherrod Brown, Steve Bullock, Terry McAuliffe, Tom Steyer, Tulsi Gabbard
Posted in Democrats, Elections | 4 Comments »
Sunday, January 13th, 2019
Here’s another case of Google putting its thumb on the scale, making you go out of your way to find what it thinks you shouldn’t be allowed to find: Google won’t autocomplete the phrase “peter strzok lisa page.”
Or “lisa page peter strzok“:
You know, the adulterous FBI lovers whose anti-Trump texts were in the news for months? Google evidently doesn’t think the same autocomplete that extends to just about any other news story that doesn’t cover the FISA scandal should apply to them. I first saw this pointed out by commenter whitney at Ann Althouse’s blog.
Here some other notable phrases Google won’t autocomplete: “fbi conspiracy”
“fisa warrant trump“:
It’s not just the FBI FISA scandal. Google also doesn’t want you to know other facts about various Democratic operatives. For example, it won’t autocomplete the phrases “Willie Brown mistress” or “Kamala Harris mistress“:
Strangely, Google won’t autocomplete just “Beto DUI” itself, but will autocomplete “Beto DUI reddit“:
Looks like someone was asleep at the censorship switch, there.
Google evidently exists to let you find any information you want…except when it’s embarrassing to Democrats.
Tags:Beto O'Rourke, Democrats, FBI, Google, Kamala Harris, Lisa Page, Media Watch, Peter Strzok, Willie Brown
Posted in Democrats, Media Watch | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, January 9th, 2019
Lefty site DailyKos has released their first Presidential straw poll of 2019. Results?
ELIZABETH WARREN 22%
BETO O’ROURKE 15
KAMALA HARRIS 14
JOE BIDEN 14
BERNIE SANDERS 11
UNSURE 9
OTHER 9
CORY BOOKER 3
JULIAN CASTRO 1
KRISTEN GILLIBRAND 1
So: Of their top five choices, all are straight, four are white millionaires, three are men, three will be over the age of 71 on January 20, 2021, two will be 78 or older, and none are Hispanic.
The outliers are Kamala Harris, 55, with a net worth of $3,310,537 (a neat trick for someone who has been continuously in government positions since 1990), and Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, 46, with an estimated worth of only $9 million. (Forbes wants us to know that his father-in-law, William Sanders, is probably only worth a mere $500 million. Also, as far as I can tell, William Sanders is not related to Bernie Sanders.)
The low ranking of Bernie Sanders may be a surprise to those who don’t follow every twist and turn of leftwing politics, but Kos deliberately drove out the Bernie Brigades in 2016 for the high crime of complaining about Hillary rigging the primary.
So too is the high standing of Warren, whose “Hey, I’m just a common person drinking beer” Instagram video drew such ridicule, surprising.
For all that Democrats swear up and down they’re the party of “people of color,” and the heavy influence of SJW “intersectionality” on the party’s rhetoric, four out of their top five Presidential candidates sure don’t show it.
Maybe the real driver of the Democratic Party isn’t intersectionality, but middle-aged feminists looking for the next Hillary. (And maybe the young feminists find O’Rourke “dreamy.”)
Or maybe I just don’t know enough about Daily Kos biases relative to the rest of the left in 2019. 2016 showed that lots of accepted wisdom about who shows up to vote for who in presidential election primaries was wrong.
Or maybe straw polls this far out are simply meaningless. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Ben Carson were mopping up straw poll victories back in 2015…
Tags:2020 Election, 2020 Presidential Race, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Daily Kos, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, feminists, Joe Biden, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Social Justice Warriors
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Social Justice Warriors | No Comments »
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019
I hope you appreciate my extreme laziness restraint in not putting a 2020 Presidential Race Roundup up until now.
Here’s the list of Democrats widely contemplated as be willing to climb into the clown car. I’ve divided them into two categories: Shiny Things and Old Warhorses.
Shiny Things
Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Doubtful. Says she’s open to the idea but hasn’t made any moves to run. Hard to see national donors backing her over Kamala Harris’ more obviously viable campaign.
Creepy Porn lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out, much to the disappointment of conservative pundits nationwide.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Maybe. He formed an exploratory PAC in 2017 and nobody noticed.
South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: Acting like he’s running, despite no one knowing who he is. As a 36-year old gay white man, he only checks off one box in the Social Justice Warrior sweepstakes. He has twice Andrew Yang’s chance at being elected (2 x 0 = ___).
Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: Probably running. Evidently he didn’t want to let Beto O’Rourke take the “can’t win statewide in Texas so might as well run nationally” sweepstakes by default. Has the advantage (unlike O’Rourke) of being an actual Hispanic, but hasn’t made much of a national impression (or even a statewide impression).
Maryland Representative John K. Delany: Definitely in. AKA “Who?” Announced in 2017. He’s competing for the same “rich old white guy with the blue collar Catholic background” niche as Joe Biden, assuming that niche even exists for Democrats in 2020. You may think the guy has zero traction, but he’s already raised nearly $5 million.
Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: Running. As hard-left as Kamala Harris, except younger and prettier (not that any Democratic activist would admit that, even with a gun to their head). Doesn’t have Harris’ fundraising base or national media following. Sanders supporter in 2016, and she could be poised to pick up some Bernie Brigades if Sanders opts out.
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Leaning toward a run. Hard to see where he finds running room, with Kamala Harris sucking up all the California money. Thomas Bradley is the standard for Los Angeles mayors running for higher office: A series of stinging defeats. But Democrats could do worse, and almost certainly will.
Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Probably not. Beto O’Rourke raised a zillion dollars to overperform and still lose in 2018, while Gillum raised far more modest sums to underperform to lose a winnable race.
California Senator Kamala Harris: Almost certainly in: Hasn’t announced yet, but is acting like a candidate and raising money. The Social Justice Warrior and New York Times (but I repeat myself) favorite.
Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Probably In. Hasn’t announced, but Ann Althouse thinks he’s running based on this video, and I don’t see any reason for him not to run, with high favorables, strong polling and having just received a zillion fawning national media profiles. The rules used to be that you couldn’t run for President if you lost your last race. But Hillary Clinton ignored that and won the nomination, and Richard Nixon won the presidency despite two high profile losses (the 1960 Presidential race and the 1962 California Governor’s race). And all sorts rules got thrown out with Trump’s election.
Incoming New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run, as she won’t turn 35 until October 13, 2024. Duh. Listed only for the sake of completeness.
Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Probably running. Seen most recently getting pantsed by Nancy Pelosi. Basically Beto without the fake Hispanic name, the senate run, the huge fundraising, or the fawning media coverage. So not like Beto at all…
California Representative Eric Swalwell: Probably running. Why is anybody’s guess. Joking about nuking gun owners may attract media attention, but voting for an unknown white guy with 1980s hair doesn’t seem to be on the Democratic Party activist agenda these days.
Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. He’s only a multimillionaire, which won’t get it done as an unknown outsider.
Wildcard Random Celebrity: You know some Democratic consultants must be looking high and low for “the Democratic Donald Trump,” the celebrity outsider that comes in and takes a crowded field by storm. Who has the gravitas to pull it off? George Clooney or Brad Pitt, maybe. Other A-listers I can think of have too much baggage (Robert Downey Jr.’s drug convictions, Tom Cruise’s Scientology, Ben Affleck/Matt Damon backing #MeToo targets, etc.) to be serious contenders. Dwayne Johnson says he’s not running (and might be a Republican).
Wildcard Random Billionaire: No idea who that would be, except it’s not going be to Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates. (Have you seen those guys speak?) Tom Steyer, maybe. Given the effectiveness his financial backing has had thus far, he could top the John Connelly in 1980 campaign for most money spent for fewest delegates garnered record.
Old Warhorses
Some are old, and some are very old.
Former Vice President Joe Biden: Waffling. Biden has to think he could have taken Trump if he hadn’t left the field to Hillary. He seems to be laying the groundwork for a run. If elected, Biden would be 78 at his swearing-in ceremony.
Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Maybe. Says he’ll decide in the next couple of months. Can self-fund, but it’s hard to see how a guy less popular than Rudy Guilianni could do what he didn’t, and he’s sure to get dinged by Democrats for having been elected mayor as a Republican, no matter how nominal.
New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: Probably in. Spartacus said he’s considering it. He’s probably in because New Jersey law lets him run for both the Presidency and for reelection to the senate simultaneously. Second only to Elizabeth Warren in diminishing his chances in 2018.
Outgoing California Governor Jerry Brown: Maybe. His aura smiles and never frowns. But that speculation is from 2017, and Brown would be 82 come inauguration day. Brown first ran for president in 1976 and ran an effective, underfunded insurgent campaign in 1992.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Considering a run. A moderate from a swing state, Brown has the sort of resume Democrats used to consider for President, but these days he’s looking a lot more like the safe Old White Guy VP choice.
Pennsylvania Governor Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Maybe. Hasn’t said yes or no. I could cut-and-paste most of the Sherrod Brown verbiage here. His primary appeal is geographic (Trump won Pennsylvania), which doesn’t seem to matter much to Democratic primary voters. [Corrected. – LP.]
Former First Lady, New York Senator and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. She wasn’t even healthy enough to run effectively in 2016, how is she going to take the grind in 2020? So I don’t give much credence to reports she’ll run. Her absence has not made Democratic voting hearts grow fonder. If I had to guess, she’s secretly hoping that Democrats end up with a brokered convention and she emerges as the consensus compromise nominee without having to campaign.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Probably not. Says he’s not running. We know Cuomo lies, but his declaration, and the fact that so many Democratic-friendly media outlets that have previously given him a pass for his sleaze would attack him to boost other (likely non-male and non-white) contenders will probably keep him out.
New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: All but out. Hasn’t announced he’s not running, but he barely even bothers to show up for his current job. Widely loathed with no national base and no notable fundraising prowess. Other than that he’s in good shape…
New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: Probably not. Young by warhorse standards, but she’s been a senator since 2009. Says she’s not running, and I don’t see voters crying out to vote for another female senator from New York…
Former Vice President Al Gore: No signs of a run, despite certain Democratic insiders openly pining for him.
Outgoing Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: Probably in. Might be able to run as the “Pro Pot Candidate.” Unless that will be…
Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. He’s running as the “all in on global warming” president, which I suspect has all the activist cachet of a Presbyterian sermon in a Democratic Party dominated by illegal alien activism and victimhood identity politics.
Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Probably not. Veep picks used to be considered contenders, but Kaine didn’t exactly set the world on fire. Said he wasn’t running right after Trump’s surprise victory, and hasn’t said anything to change minds since.
Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Considering running. I don’t see him getting much traction, but he’s rich enough (from marrying well) to self-fund. He and Biden would be the only candidates with notable foreign policy experience (disasterous though it was), but when has that mattered in a recent Democratic Presidential primary?
Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: Considering a run. A strong contender to snag some Clinton feminist cadres, having not made the many missteps Elizabeth Warren has, but it’s hard to see her gain much fundraising traction.
Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: leaning toward it. Personally I expect the public appetite for a figure so closely linked to the Clintons to be extremely limited in 2020, and I don’t see any running room for him if any of the higher profile Old White Guys run.
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Considering a run. In the Senate since 2009. Can you be an old warhorse if no one knows who you are?
Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out. Both she and her husband say she’s not running. For once we should probably take them at their word…
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out. Says he’s not running, and there’s already enough real and potential Massachusetts candidates in the race.
Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: Probably running. Getting screwed by Hillary and talk of a “socialist wave” in 2018 (deluded though it was) must be steeling his resolve, even though he’s a year older than Joe Biden.
Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Probably not running. She says she’s not: “In that political structure — all the non-truths, the bullsh*t, the crap, the nastiness, the backhanded backroom stuff that goes on — I feel like I could not exist. I would not be able to do it. It’s not a clean business. It would kill me.” Translation: I’m just too pure for your rough and tumble politics.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. She’s announced she’s running. After years of self-inflicted wounds, I expect her to lose badly.
Am I missing anyone here?
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