Posts Tagged ‘2014 Election’

Can Anyone Successfully Primary John Cornyn?

Tuesday, October 1st, 2013

There’s been a lot of criticism of John Cornyn in Tea Party circles over his failure to back Ted Cruz in procedural votes on the ObamaCare defunding fight. Given that, the muttering over someone primarying Cornyn have grown much louder.

Can anyone take Cornyn? It’s something of a tall order. He had some $6 million on hand as of the July reporting period, and any potential candidate will have a much latter start than Ted Cruz had when he beat David Dewhurst.

I queried a few people more tied-in than I, and three names of possible Cornyn challengers came up:

  • U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert was the most popular choice. Gohmert is a solid conservative, and Mark Levin has even put up a Draft Congressman Gohmert for U.S. Senate page on Facebook. The drawback is that Gohmert isn’t wealthy enough to self-fund, and his East Texas district puts him far away from the Houston and Metroplex fundraising pools that would be necessary to fund a statewide campaign.
  • U.S. Congressman Michael McCaul was a very close second. McCaul is widely considered to be “conservative enough” (and has an ACU rating of 91%) and with a personal fortune estimated to be around $300 million (his wife is the daughter of the founder of Clear Channel), he could clearly self-fund. McCaul was considering a Senate run in 2012, but ultimately opted against it.
  • Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willet has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, and he’s well-respected among conservatives. But stepping from the Texas Supreme Court to the U.S. Senate is a tall order (Cornyn did it via a stint as Texas Attorney General), and Willet has joked about not being rich, so self-funding is probably out for him as well.
  • (Unmentioned by anyone, but someone who’s family connections would bring instant media coverage: George P. Bush. But name recognition and family connections only take you so far. Bush would go from an overwhelming favorite for Land Commissioner to a distinct underdog in a Senate race, plus there’s no guarantee he would be any more conservative than Cornyn. And Tea Party opinion of the Bush Dynasty is not exactly one of, shall we say, unrestrained affection.)

    It’s going to be a tall order to take out a sitting U.S. Senator, barring scandal or even more deviation from conservative principles. But of those mentioned, McCaul probably has the best shot to beat Cornyn.

    Canseco Running Against Gallego Again

    Monday, September 30th, 2013

    Francisco “Quico” Canseco is gearing up to take U.S. Congressional District 23 back from Democrat Pete Gallego. Canseco lost the by just over 9,000 votes in 2012, having beaten Ciro Rodriguez for the seat by just over 7,000 votes in 2010. CD23 is the biggest “swing” district in Texas, and Canseco probably has a good chance to take back the seat as Gallego will have to win in 2014 without a boost from the Obama campaign.

    More on Canseco’s Facebook page.

    Wayne Christian Joins the Railroad Commissioner Race

    Monday, September 9th, 2013

    Former Rep. Wayne Christian has joined the Railroad commissioner race.

    Christian lost his seat to the Joe Straus-backed Chris Paddie in the Republican primary after losing 80% of his district in redistricting. Christian is already generating some grassroots enthusiasm in a crowded Railroad Commissioner field that already includes Malachi Boyuls, who has drawn some heavyweight support himself, and state Rep. Stefani Carter.

    Wendy Davis for Governor Boomlet Continues Apace

    Wednesday, August 14th, 2013

    Wendy Davis slouches closer to running for Governor. In fact, with the Texas Democratic Party officially begging her to get in, I think it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.

    I think she will get in and get slaughtered by Greg Abbott in the general election in 2014. I think her partisans have severely overestimated how Abortion Barbie’s signature issue and liberal politics will play statewide. Also expect Democrats to field a collection of nobodies in down-ballot statewide races, assuming they bother to recruit anyone at all; remember, they failed to even field candidates in many 2012 races.

    In addition, I hope Democratic partisans nationwide pump enough money into her campaign to weaken them elsewhere; far better for Wendy Davis get that money than, say, Mary Landrieu.

    Despite that, I think it probably is the best decision for her politically. A losing race for Governor is going to give her a lot more national exposure and access to donors than another state senate campaign ever would.

    My prediction is that by 2015, she’s going to have her own show on MSNBC.

    Statewide Race Roundup for August 9, 2013

    Friday, August 9th, 2013

    Time for another quick roundup of statewide race news:

  • Even left-wing PolitiFact admits that Democrats are lying about Greg Abbott improperly moving funds.
  • They’re a lot tougher on Lt. Governor candidate Sen. Dan Patrick’s claims that funding for border security was cut in the latest budget.
  • The Texas Tribune looks at Abbott’s consultant spending.
  • Abbott, running for a statewide office, refuses to opine on national legislative tactics to defund ObamaCare. Stop the freaking presses!
  • The Washington Post offers up five facts about Abbott. For a change, they’re even accurate.
  • Abbot takes south Texas votes seriously.
  • Lt. Governor David Dewhurst shakes up his re-election team with new hires, including Ryan Hecker of FreedomWorks and Eliza Vielma (AKA Twitter’s @misslizaface) will be handling social media. Given how poorly Dewhurst performed in social media in the Senate race, that’s probably a good move.
  • Lt. Governor candidate and Agricultural Commissioner Todd Staples takes a swing at Dewhurst’s leadership in a fundraising letter.
  • But Staples, like all three of Dewhurst’s challengers in the Lt. Governor’s race, endorsed Dewhurst over Ted Cruz in last year’s Senate runoff.
  • Patrick has a new ad out. He looks sleepy. He may need to consider ptosis surgery.

  • Attorney General candidate Dan Branch defends defense of marriage. Unlike Tom Leppert, Branch doesn’t seem to have played footsie with Dallas’ gay rights community, and indeed was an (unsuccessful) target for them to defeat in 2008.
  • Speaking of Branch, Facebook briefly yanked, then restored, one of his campaign videos. This one I think:

    Which strikes me as well-produced, but pretty generic. Can’t see why any reasonable person would find it even remotely objectionable.

  • Sources tell me that Rep. Brandon Creighton gets into the Agricultural Commissioner’s race today.
  • And speaking of the Agricultural Commissioner’s race, Eric Opiela is evidently not only Joe Straus’ lawyer, but also managed (through some ill-advised emails) to hurt Republican redistricting efforts by making them easier to challenge in 2012.
  • On the Democratic side, Abortion Barbie inches closer to declaring her intention to lose to Abbott.
  • Ken Paxton Makes It Official

    Monday, August 5th, 2013

    In the better-late-than-never-reporting department, last week State Senator Ken Paxton made his run for attorney general official. Paxton is probably most famous for running against Rep. Joe Straus for Speaker of the House back when he was a state Rep.

    Paxton also touted numerous endorsements of Kelly Shackelford of the Liberty Institute, Cathie Adams of the Texas Eagle Forum, Peggy Venable of Americans for Prosperity, state Reps. Tony Dale, Bryan Hughes, Jodie Laubenberg, Scott Turner, Giovanni Capriglione, Jeff Leach of Plano, Scott Sanford, Van Taylor (who’s already announced a bid to replace Paxton in the Senate) and Bill Zedler.

    One tiny snag: Paxton initially touted the endorsement of Empower Texans’ Michael Quinn Sullivan. Only problem: Sullivan hadn’t endorsed him. Oops.

    Rep. Dan Branch and Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman are already in the race.

    Texas Statewide Races Update for July 30, 2013

    Tuesday, July 30th, 2013

    Still getting up to speed, so expect these updates to be a bit random for, oh, the next five weeks or so.

  • Abbott: The Obama Administration’s Voting Rights Act lawsuit is purely political.

    The administration’s approach reveals the Democrats‘ fear that Republican candidates were making inroads with Hispanic voters. Democrats could never “turn Texas blue” if that trend continued, so they got the courts to draw district lines that guarantee Democratic victory in predominantly Hispanic areas.

    Instead of allowing the Voting Rights Act to work in a way the Constitution allows, the Obama administration is sowing racial divide to score cheap political points. The president is using the legal system as a sword to wage partisan battles rather than a shield to protect voting rights. This overreaching action undermines the Voting Rights Act and the rule of law. Texas will not tolerate it. So far, neither will the Supreme Court.

  • Abbot also appeared on Lou Dobbs to discuss voter ID:

  • He also appeared on the Mike Huckabee show:

  • And the Mike Gallagher Show:

  • And Trey Ware’s show on KTSA:

  • Huckabee, who last endorsed David Dewhurst in the Senate race, endorses Dan Patrick in the Lt. Governor’s race. I’m sure the endorsement had nothing to do with Huckabee’s son doing work for a consulting firm hired by Patrick…
  • Former state Rep. Ray Keller is running for the Railroad Commission.
  • Interview with Barry Smitherman
  • The Houston Chronicle tackles the Lt. Governor’s race by…comparing Twitter statistics for Jerry Patterson and Dan Patrick. I feel dumber merely by having linked to that.
  • Texas Sparkle endorses Todd Staples for Lt. Governor.
  • Eric Opiela is running for Agricultural Commissioner. I sort of like his ad featuring a Prius-driving EPA official:

  • Malachi Boyuls is running for the railroad commission. You don’t see many Malachis in public office these days…

  • Democrat Mike Mjetland is considering running for Governor.
  • Smidgen of Texas Attorney General Race News

    Friday, July 26th, 2013

    A little bird has been telling me a few tidbits about the Attorney General’s race, namely:

  • Ken Paxton is indeed going to run for AG, and will announce his run next week. You might think this is deep insider knowledge, but given this Facebook posting by Paxton…eh, not so much.
  • By contrast, the manifest lack of enthusiasm for Dan Branch’s Attorney General run among Texas conservatives is palpable. And when the Dallas Morning News labels you “a close confidant of House Speaker Joe Straus,” you’re already starting off on the wrong foot to win over conservative activists.
  • Dan Branch Makes His AG Run Official

    Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013

    State Rep Dan Branch has made his Attorney General bid official. With $4 million on hand he already has a formidable warchest. His primary opponent right now is Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman, who has just over $1 million on hand. I keep hearing murmurs of Ken Paxton possibly getting in, but so far he hasn’t made any definitive moves in that direction.

    Both Branch and Smitherman are running as conservatives (duh; they’re running as Republicans in Texas).

    Ask Greg Abbot

    Wednesday, July 17th, 2013

    Texas Attorney General and 2014 Gubernatorial frontrunner Greg Abbott will be taking questions tonight on Twitter starting at 8 PM. Just use the #askabbott hashtag to ask the AG anything you want.

    And as long as we’re on the subject of Abbott, here’s a video interview (though the sound quality is a little wonky):