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TSMC Bids To Take Over Intel Fabs

Wednesday, March 12th, 2025

I know that any time I talk about semiconductors, a significant percentage of my readership’s eyes glaze over, but this is Big Freaking News.

Intel shares rose 6% in premarket trading after Reuters reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, had approached US chip designers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom about taking stakes in a joint venture that would operate the struggling chipmaker’s factories.

Four sources told Reuters that the Taiwanese chipmaking giant would run Intel’s foundry division under the new proposal, producing chips tailored to customer requirements but not owning more than 50%. The sources added that Qualcomm has also been approached about the venture.

For those unfamiliar with the semiconductor space, that’s a Murderers Row of heavyweights, including the top three semiconductor companies by market cap:

  • TSMC is far and away the largest chip foundry (a company that builds chips for other companies, but doesn’t design its own chips) in the world, and the one with a clear technological lead over everyone else. TSMC has the third largest market cap of any semiconductor company.
  • Broadcom is the second-largest semiconductor company in the world by market cap, and they have their fingers in a lot of different pies: networking, wireless, storage, you name it. They’re generally considered a fabless chip designer, but the company is such a weird amalgamation of other companies (what we call Broadcom used to be Avago until they acquired Broadcom in 2016) that they might still have a lower end fab or two lurking somewhere in the company. They also use TSMC as a foundry, though I’m not sure how extensively. They’ve also recently made a big move into software, acquiring CA Associates and VMWare, among others.
  • Nvidia is a fabless chip designer (the sort of company that contracts with foundries to fab their chips) that went heavily into high end GPUs (the chips that render video for your PC, in Nvidia’s case geared toward high end games and other highly demanding tasks), then crypto-mining chips, and more recently into chips geared for AI applications, all very lucrative market segments, which has made Nvidia not only first among semiconductor market cap, but among the largest companies by market cap in the world (along with Apple and Microsoft). Nvidia has their chips fabricated by TSMC, as well as some by Samsung and GlobalFoundries, which was spun off from…
  • Advanced Micro Devices, which used to be an Integrated Device Manufacturer (or IDM, a company designs their own chips and builds them in their own fabs) creating Intel-compatible CPUs, but eventually spun off their fabrication plants as GlobalFoundries because they couldn’t keep up with Intel’s capital spending. AMD also has some of their highest end chips fabricated by TSMC. If AMD were to help take over Intel, it would be an extremely ironic ending to a longtime rivalry.
  • Qualcomm is a lot like Broadcom: A mostly fabless design house with its fingers in lots of different pies, and they’re about the sixth largest semiconductor company by market cap. Broadcom tried to acquire Qualcomm in 2017-18 and was blocked by the Trump45 administration.
  • Intel is an IDM, and for decades was the undisputed “chipzilla” of the semiconductor world. Intel’s CPUs were the dominant processor for the vast majority of the last 40 years and a huge ingredient for helping create the PC revolution. Intel used to be the technology process leader as well, but somewhere along the way they screwed up their sub-10nm process nodes, allowing TSMC to take the process technology crown. Indeed, they screwed up so badly that they’ve been forced to have TSMC fab some of its highest end chips. Despite having a vast number of fabs, Intel’s market cap has slipped down to 16th among semiconductor companies.

    • Back to the piece:

    The sources noted that the Trump administration is exploring ways to revive Intel and strengthen US manufacturing under the ‘America First’ agenda. They added that TSMC’s joint venture pitch to chip designers took place before the company, alongside President Trump, announced plans last month to invest $100 billion in semiconductor manufacturing in the US, building on its existing $65 billion investment in its Phoenix, Arizona, factories.

    Any deal between TSMC and Intel would be subjected to approval from the Trump administration.

    If the Trump Administration’s goal is to increase available sub-10nm wafer starts (and it should be) and maintain American control of Intel’s fabs, then this proposal is a win-win. Intel’s fabs plus TSMC’s tech would create a foundry powerhouse. It wouldn’t happen overnight (nothing in semiconductors happens overnight), but probably in 12-24 months, depending on how quickly the new entity can acquire the necessary pieces of equipment to upgrade Intel’s fabs to thee new tech (I’m guessing that the availability of ASML steppers will, as usual, be the gating factor). And all this without the tens of billions in taxpayer subsidies for the CHIPS Act.

    If this goes through, it would have mostly winners, with a few losers:

    Winners

  • Every company that’s part of the deal. TSMC gets to radically expand production capacity without spending $20 billion+ to build a new fab. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Qualcomm gain a lot more capacity for expanding production of their high end chips. Ditto for Apple (who’s not part of the deal, but who is TSMC’s biggest customer and a big demand driver for cutting edge fab capacity) and every other consumer of sub-10nm chips.
  • AMD additionally gets the egoboo of partially taking over its longtime hated rival and confirming it’s crown as the x86/x64 chip manufacturer of choice. Plus their then-risky decision to spin off GlobalFoundries looks like a genius move in hindsight.
  • The Trump Administration, which gets to take credit for vastly increasing American Foundry capacity at zero additional taxpayer expense and keeps Intel under American control.
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML, Applied Materials, LAM Research, Tokyo Electron and KLA (short term). It’s likely most or all of those companies (along with smaller players like Axcelis and Teradyne) will receive a bump in extra sales from leveling up Intel’s fabs to run TSMC’s process.
  • American chip startups: With so much high end capacity becoming available, existing and potential chip startups are going to look like more attractive investment capital opportunities.
  • ARM Holdings: ARM doesn’t make chips, they’re an IP design house that licenses their functional chip blocks to other chip designers. Just about every foundry and IDM is a licensee (yes, including Intel and TSMC), so unleashing more chip designs will almost certainly result in more royalties for ARM. (Nvidia tried to buy ARM in 2020, and regulators quashed that idea good and hard.)
  • Intel investors, who will either get a big lump-sum payment or shares in the new, probably far more profitable company (depending on how the buyout is structured).
  • Even Intel wins long-term by unleashing existing fab capacity to take on new business not tied to its faltering CPU manufacturing model. And actually, with TSMC’s process, Intel has a chance to recover in the CPU space as well.

    • Losers

  • Samsung: Along with TSMC and Intel, Samsung (which has both IDM and foundry components) has some of the best sub-10nm process tech in the world. They gain a whole lot of unleashed competition and stand on the outside looking in.
  • Intel‘s dreams of reclaiming their spot at the top of the heap, and suffering the indignity of being partially owned by AMD. How the mighty have fallen.
  • Every Chinese fab, which goes from “very far behind” to “even further behind.”
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers (long term): They better enjoy the out-of-band upgrade money from retrofitting Intel’s fabs, as it will likely mean a significant delay in anyone building a new cutting edge wafer fab for quite a while. And having two of their biggest customers team up is probably going to put them under a lot of downward pricing pressure.
  • GlobalFoundries (and other trailing edge foundries) might lose some business, but there’s very little overlap between Intel/TSMC cutting edge processes and GlobalFoundries trailing-edge fabs. Ditto UMC.

    • Are there anti-trust concerns with such a heavy accumulation of cutting edge process technology? Oh yeah. Big time. But almost all of those concerns were already there in some form or another thanks to the interconnected “cooperation” nature of the industry. All those companies going in with TSMC were already getting chips fabbed by TSMC. Samsung could try to claim that the deal would result in TSMC having a de-facto monopoly on sub-10nm foundry business, but it wouldn’t start with one, and that business isn’t the whole of foundry business (though it is the most profitable part), much less semiconductors as a whole.

    Given that this would go a long way toward achieving Trump’s goal of increasing cutting edge fab capacity in America, I would imagine that the Trump47 administration could very well be persuaded to let this deal go through.

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    Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments »

    Konstantin Kisin On Zelensky’s Cock-Up

    Tuesday, March 4th, 2025

    Triggernometry’s Konstantin Kisin, who goes to great pains to underline his own support for Ukraine resisting Russia’s illegal war of territorial aggression, points out that it was Zelensky who screwed up big time in his White House meeting with Trump.

  • “When I watched the full 50-minute press conference, it became clear that President Trump had actually done his best to do a deal and that it was President Zelensky who scuppered it through an ill-advised spat with J.D. Vance.”
  • “As if this wasn’t enough, Zelensky then proceeded to mutter an insult under his breath, and interrupt and argue with President Trump himself, which led to the deal offer being withdrawn and Zelensky being sent to his room without his supper.”
  • Zelensky “led his country in heroic defense against a brutal and barbaric invasion. He saw innocent Ukrainian civilians being slaughtered, tortured and raped. He watched missiles and drones rain down on his towns and cities. He welcomed Ukrainian prisoners of war in their return from Russian prisons and torture camps, only to discover they were emaciated, bruised and broken.”
  • Zelensky has received so many accolades across the world that “his negotiating position appears somewhat disconnected from reality.”
  • “He argued that Russia must pay for the war on the basis that, in history, whoever starts the war pays. What he appears to be missing is that this isn’t remotely true. In history, whoever wins makes the losing side pay. While neither side has defeated the other, Ukraine can hardly claim victory.”
  • “For all these reasons, the reality vortex he entered in the Oval Office would have been a shock to Zelensky.”
  • “To the current occupants of the White House, their advisors and their base, president Zelensky, and forgive me for putting it this bluntly, is an untrustworthy leader of a corrupt country on the other side of the world who keeps asking for money America doesn’t have to fight a war they neither care about nor feel he can win.” I think the majority of Trump’s supporters want to see Ukraine win, but don’t want to provide a blank check to accomplish it and/or don’t think it’s possible.
  • “To them this is just another forever war like Iraq or Afghanistan.”
  • “President Zelensky walked into a room in which people who don’t particularly like him, don’t particularly trust him and don’t particularly care about his just and righteous cause were nevertheless prepared to continue giving him money, weapons, and political support in order to make this problem go away. All he had to do was look grateful. When you’re attempting to convert other people’s goodwill into hard currency, that’s the bare minimum, and for 40 minutes Zelensky just about managed.”
  • “The way he challenged Vance directly in front of the cameras was catastrophically stupid.”
  • “Sure, if you hate Trump and Vance and think they’re taking part in the YouTube debate, then Zelensky made a valid point. But this wasn’t a debate. They’re all supposed to be on the same side and the person who has the most to lose from them not feeling like they’re on the same side is Zelensky, or more importantly, his nation.”
  • “In Europe, Zelensky is used to winning people over to his cause by claiming that Ukraine is all that stands between them and Vladimir Putin. We can argue about whether such claims are true, but the important thing is that, in Europe, we are much more receptive to this message for both cultural and pragmatic reasons. We are on the same continent as Russia, and NATO’s eastern border is now in contact with Russia. This point of contact would have been significantly extended had Ukraine been overrun.”
  • “These arguments don’t wash in America, and what’s worse, Americans hate people painting a negative picture of their society’s future. This is why I believe President Trump interrupted Zelensky when he claimed that America won’t be protected from Putin by an ocean and shut him down.”
  • “None of this is to suggest that Vance or Trump behaved perfectly, but they aren’t the ones asking for more money, weapons and diplomatic support.”
  • “Zelensky’s job is to realize that he stopped being a human being when he became president of a country relying on foreign aid to survive. He doesn’t have the luxury of righteousness, and his country cannot afford to have him lose control of his senses as he did so.”
  • “Is this salvageable? I believe it is for the following reasons: First, Trump said as much. He sends Zelensky home to get him to realize that he needs to stop messing around, and made it clear that discussions can resume when Zelensky is ready for peace.”
  • “Secondly, the facts on the ground make some sort of settlement brokered by the US inevitable. Without foreign support, Ukraine’s brave defense would fold within weeks, and Europe, despite the cheerleading of its politicians, does not have the military, industrial capacity, or popular will to support Ukraine in this way by itself.”
  • “Zelensky needs Trump. Trump, on the other hand wants this war to end, and despite the glee of his base, would not want to go down in history as the president who abandoned Ukraine.” The majority of Trump’s base is not anti-Ukraine, they’re anti-paying for it. And those who confidently predict what Trump will or won’t think or do in a given situation frequently turn out to be wrong…
  • “All Zelensky has to do is apologize for his tactless behavior, and recognize that, like it or not, if you’re fighting a war with someone else’s weapons, they are going to have a say in how that war ends.”

    • Since that disasterous meeting, of course, Zelensky has been singing a different tune, and may end up following Kisin’s advice and giving Trump everything he asked for. Stay tuned…

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military, Uncategorized, video | 15 Comments »

    The Case Of The Missing 15,000,000

    Saturday, December 14th, 2024

    From Russiagate to the uselessness of masks to Hunter Biden’s laptop, the pattern we’ve all come to recognize is Democrat-controlled institutions lying to our face about something, then accusing people of being “conspiracy theorists” when people question the false narrative. Time after time, the “conspiracy theorists” were proven right.

    So let’s hear Townhall’s Larry O’Connor talk about those missing 15,000,000 Biden votes from the 2020 Presidential election.

  • “It appears that upwards to 15 million or more Americans have been abducted.”
  • Then he shows The Chart.

  • “Starting all the way to the left, with Barack Obama versus Mitt Romney, and you can see there that Barack Obama just got over about 66 million votes. Then four years later, Hillary Clinton [got] about the same about 66 million votes as Barack Obama did. And then we get to 2020, in the middle of the pandemic, Joe Biden got, of course, famously, 82 million votes which is you know the difference of about 15-16 million votes.”
  • “That would be about 15 million votes that we believe disappeared. Because when you come back to this presidential election, you can see that Kamala Harris once again returns to form and gets that same sort of 66 million that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama did.”
  • “We saw this drastic drop all of a sudden this year, where the same number of voters in 2012, 2016 and 2024 all voted for a Democrat. But there’s that that outlier Joe Biden.”
  • “They were either abducted by aliens, or they got taken up to heaven by Jesus in The Rapture, or the people suddenly became apathetic about politics, where they rallied to vote in 2020 but now they don’t care.”
  • “They loved Joe Biden so much that they came out of the woodwork by the level of 15 million, but then they don’t like Kamala Harris, so they’re just going to sit it out?”
  • “Or our last option is that they never actually existed in the first place. The people didn’t exist. The ballots certainly existed, but not the people.”

  • “Total votes cast: 2004, 121 million. 2008, big year, Barack Obama caught fire, built a huge momentum behind him, and people got excited about making history. That increased by about 8 million [129 million]. 2012 it went down a bit about two million, two and a half million [126 million]. 2016, we’re back up around the same level. Total votes cast 128 million, which is about the same as it was in 2008.”
  • “You pop down to 2024, again, slight increase about 129 million again, which puts us back to the Barack Obama levels.”
  • “But then it was four years ago. Four years ago you’re looking at total votes cast 155 million. Have we ever seen anything like this before?”
  • “Is there any possible explanation to that? Are we to believe that that many people wanted to vote in 2020, and only 2020, and then this year they just shrugged and said, ‘Ah, forget about it?'”
  • “Are you telling me that with a billion dollars in the bank, Kamala Harris only focusing on seven states, the same seven states, by the way, that Joe Biden focused on four years ago, that they were that inept?”
  • “This is criminal malpractice in the world of politics, that they were that incompetent that with a billion dollars, they couldn’t get out that vote?”
  • “Somebody posted going back to 1984…Bellweather counties in America are seen as counties that [the] way these counties vote generally speaking reflect the way the presidential election will go.” Rather than O’Connor describing the chart, here’s the chart itself:

    That seems…statistically unlikely.

  • “Donald Trump won every single one of those counties except for one. And yet that year (2020), the only year since 1984 the winner of these bellweather counties, which was Donald Trump, did not become the eventual winner of the Electoral College, the only one. And then we go to this last election, and you can see [in] 2024 Donald Trump won 88% of the counties, Kamala Harris won only two of them, and he was eventually the president.”
  • “So 2020 is the outlier. It’s the only year that Joe Biden ends up being the president, the winner of the Electoral College, by only winning 6% of these bellweather counties, just one of them, just one county, and it happened to be in his home state of Delaware.”
  • Roseanne Barr: “They still think Biden got 81 million votes at 4 a.m. Trump’s the most popular candidate of all time. He won three elections, two handily in a row.”
  • “It’s a fair observation. In fact, it’s hard not to reach this conclusion.”
  • “I’m curious as to how anyone is looking at these numbers and not asking this question.”

    • Democrats have been confronted by a whole lot of difficult truths following this election: A majority of Americans dislike their party, people hate wokeness, and Joe Biden was just as senile and corrupt as Republicans have argued all along.

    Now they should face up to the fact that President Lol81million’s 2020 “victory” was due to massive voter fraud.

    Just like all of us said four years ago.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Obama Scandals, Uncategorized, video | 5 Comments »

    Prepper/Black Friday Shopping Guide

    Friday, November 29th, 2024

    Since I know many of you will be shopping on Black Friday, here’s A.) Listing some basic prepping and cold weather gear, and B.) Providing possible gifts or purchases for items I approve of.

    I’ve included Amazon links, but for some items (like batteries), Sam’s or Lowes tends to offer better prices. But a lot of these do seem to have Black Friday savings prices.

    The Basics

    Here are some all-purpose tools everyone should already have, listed here for completeness sake.

  • First aid kit: There are a lot of different makes and models of these, and I think Sam’s offers a kit that’s a bit cheaper than this one. Has a little bit of everything. A good thing to keep in your car for emergencies.
  • Smoke alarm: Everyone should already have these, but if you don’t, or want more, this has a silence button so you can put it in your kitchen. These seem to be made in Mexico, but First Alert also makes stuff in China, so caveat emptor.
  • Carbon Monoxide detector. Doesn’t say, but I suspect it’s another item made in China. There are some combination carbon monoxide/smoke detectors, but I think you want to avoid the possibility of a single point of failure. You also need to replace these about every ten years anyway.
  • Fire Extinguisher: Every home should have at least one, and make sure it’s not expired. This is what I have (I think it’s made in Mexico), but fortunately I’ve never had to use it.
  • Water leak detector: A lot of people don’t have these, but I consider them essential basic gear, as they can save you hundreds or thousands of dollars in water damage. I had one of mine go off a week before the ice storm hit because a shutoff valve I had closed to plunge an overflowing toilet had started leaking. Usual made in China caveats apply, but it’s very simple tech (two parallel wires on the exterior that water closes the circuit and sets off when wet). That link goes to a 5-pack of the brand I have, because I recommend putting one behind every toilet, under every sink you use, under your water heater, and next to your washing machine (I’ve had mine start rocking for an unbalanced load that pulled the drain hose loose). However, that 5-pack has gotten pretty pricey, so here’s an even cheaper five pack from another manufacturer (also made in China) that I have no experience with.
  • Speaking of plunging toilets, I imagine everyone already has a plunger, but if you don’t, here’s one, and you might consider one for each bathroom, or at least each floor. Also, the black bell shaped ones are a lot more effective than the small old red ones.
  • Speaking of things everyone should already have more of, everyone needs flashlights. This Goreit flashlight seems bright, cheap, and gets pretty good reviews. The highest rated flashlight on Amazon is the Streamlight 75458 Stinger DS, which is fairly pricey. I assume it’s brighter and with a longer life, and maybe you have a use case that justifies the cost. And speaking of ridiculous lights I have no use case for…
  • The IMALENT MS18 is evidently so insanely bright that it has its own cooling fan. Here’s a video of how insane it is. And if you have flashlights, chances are you’ll also need…
  • Batteries. D-Cells are still used in a lot of things, and you’re going to want, at a minimum, enough to reload every flashlight twice, which should be enough to get you through a couple of evenings of power outages. Check your flashlights every six months when you check your smoke and CO detectors. Speaking of which, those and the water leak detectors take 9 volt batteries, and you want enough around to be able to change out every battery in your detectors as needed. Those links go to Duracells, which I’ve been pretty happy with.
  • Car jump starter: Much better than jumper cables, and can save you money when you have a dead battery, or because it’s just not cranking in the cold.
  • Gas And Water Emergency Shut Off Tool. The Orbit 26097 provides a water shutoff valve, a gas shutoff valve, manhole cover lift tool, and a rubberized grip. You need one of these for the same reason you need a water leak detector, i.e. it will greatly limit damage before the plumber gets there.
  • Sawyer Products Water Filtration System: If you’ve ever been under a water boil notice, the Sawyer system is Good Enough to get you through, even if it is a slight pain to fill and squeeze the bag enough times for my dogs and I to drink (but still less of a pain that boiling water and waiting for it to cool).
  • Duct tape is useful to have year-round, but especially during an emergency, to patch a small leak or keep something together until the emergency is over and you can replace it. Link goes to 3M all-weather duct tape, which is better than the generic stuff for outside tasks, like sealing around the edge of a faucet cover.
  • 12 pack LED Tea Lights. This is a strange one. These mimic flickering candlelight, and I bought them for Halloween decorations, for which they worked well enough. I think they’re just bright enough and cheap enough for a few use cases around the house in an extended power outage. You can probably (just barely) read with them by holding them right next to the page, but I think they would be most useful for providing acceptable light in places like bathrooms, at the top and bottom of dark stairways, on dining tables, etc.

    • Cold Weather

    Here are some specific prep items for cold weather:

  • Faucet Covers. If you’re a homeowner, you probably already have those, but if not, here they are, and they seem to work better than a rag or dripping the faucet, and neither of my faucets busted in the ice storm. That link goes to the cheap Styrofoam version, but these plastic ones look a bit bigger and stronger.
  • O’Keeffe’s Working Hands cream: I walk my dogs 2-3 times a day pretty much every single day of the year, and I found my hands getting cracked and raw in the cold, even through gloves. O’Keeffe’s Working Hands fixed the problem. I frequently give this stuff out as Christmas gifts.
  • Carmex lip balm. A small, cheap jar that solves the chapped lips problem in winter. I know some people prefer Chapstick, but to me the main result of using Chapstick is that 30 minutes later you fell a need to use more Chapstick.
  • Kerasal Intensive Foot Repair for cracked and painful feet. Podiatrist recommended! Full review here.
  • De-icing spray. You can stand there for 15 minutes ineffectually scraping your frozen windows like William H. Macy in Fargo, or you can keep a bottle of this in your trunk.

    • Non-Prep “Stuff You Might Need”

    Here are things I’ve bought I’m happy with.

  • Have trouble getting to sleep at night? Have you tried Melatonin? All I can say is that it works for me (sometimes boosted with generic Acetaminophen PM, which you can buy cheap at Sam’s).
  • I’d been having trouble finding plain white T-shirts soft enough to sleep in, but these work really well.
  • Silicone oven mitts: My cousin used these last Thanksgiving and I was impressed with them. They work great and don’t seem to wear out as quickly as cloth mitts do.
  • If you haven’t seen The Death of Stalin yet, I highly recommend it.
  • Speaking of 1970s TV detectives, we’ve been working our way through the complete Rockford Files, and the set is a pretty good value for the money, if you don’t mind the paper sleeves.
  • If you like offbeat science fiction and fantasy, you might try this two volume Avram Davidson set, set up as print-on-demand books from the Avram Davidson society. At 100 stories, it’s a lot of bang for your buck.
  • Do you collect Arkham House books? probably a long shot for this blog, but if so, Don Herron and John D. Haefele’s Arkham House Ephemera: The Classic Years 1937 —1973: A Pictorial History & Guide For Collectors might be for you. A POD book, this is just what the title says, a pictorial history of Arkham House ephemera (catalogs, review slips, etc.) issued from the press’s founding up through 1973. The book is actually useful even if you don’t collect ephemera, as the full catalogs show when books went out of print and how much they were going for, etc.

    • I know I should be better at offering up Amazon offerings to rake in the filthy lucre, but I don’t tend to buy books and DVDs/Blu-rays from them. Mostly the things I buy from Amazon are vitamins and dog treats, which aren’t exactly exciting link fodder…

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    Posted in Uncategorized | 6 Comments »

    The Pain Of Upgrades

    Monday, October 28th, 2024

    I had to upgrade my Mac to Sequoia (15.0.1) because I need to run Slack on it for my new job. Naturally, this broke a lot of my existing apps and made Firefox look like it forgot everything, because why start up with the profile the user was already using when you can make him panic by presenting a fresh slate to suggest you’ve lost all history, bookmarks and passwords?

    Anyway, I’ve got that back, and I can blog, but fixing all the changes (including finally having to buy a new version of MS Office), and the new job are going to eat up a fair amount of my time, so expect some terse blogging this week. Which, I know, is less than ideal the week before the election. It is what it is.

    Oh, and I still can’t run Slack, because it needs to validate on a browser to activate, and it says my already-updated Firefox is still too old.

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    Posted in Uncategorized | 14 Comments »

    Getting Out The Ten Foot Pole To Talk About UFOs

    Thursday, October 10th, 2024

    If the Jeopardy category is “Topics Seldom Covered At BattleSwarm,” “What are UFOs?” is a pretty good answer. While I’ve occasionally done a post, for the most part those waters are too polluted by cranks, grifters and true believers (to the extent those categories are distinguishable) to give much credence to the idea that alien spacecraft regularly visit earth.

    But since Michael Shellenberger just dropped a piece on a whistleblower saying the federal government has a secret UFO program, and since Shellenberger did such important work on the Twitter files, I am reluctantly getting out my ten foot pole* and covering the piece.

    But first some background.

    Back in the 1970s, a whole lot of otherwise rational people believed not only in the existence of UFOs, but in alien abductions, ancient astronauts, and a whole host of crackpot pseudoscience beliefs. Belief in UFOs as extraterrestrials visiting earth probably peaked then, reflected in popular media from Close Encounters of the Third Kind to Project Bluebook. There was also a steady stream of UFO true believers on TV, making fairly outrageous claims on actual news programs or “true story” TV shows, be it Barney Hill getting butt-probed in a saucer or Bob Lazar’s stories of alien technology at Area 51 and how Grays will use humans as “containers for souls.”

    In terms of government UFO projects, the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program was a real (though unpublicized) Defense Department program that evidently ran from 2007 to 2012.

    Now back to Shellenberger:

    There is no evidence that any non-human or extra-terrestrial intelligence has visited Earth, according to a May 2024 report by the office the Pentagon created in 2022 to study unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), formerly called UFOs.

    The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) “assesses that the inaccurate claim that the USG is reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology and is hiding it from Congress is, in large part,” the report concluded, “the result of circular reporting from a group of individuals who believe this to be the case, despite the lack of any evidence.”

    The former Director of AARO has since resigned his position and has repeatedly dismissed and ridiculed the topic, claiming that talk of the phenomenon is due mainly to a small group of individuals in the grip of a rumor-based religion.

    But critics say that AARO’s 63-page history of the US government’s investigation into UAPs since the end of World War II was riddled with factual errors and poor referencing, including to Wikipedia. And the document was missing historical information that appeared in the 117-page “UAP Timeline” document created by a former or existing US government intelligence officer that Public published last year.

    Christopher Mellon, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, wrote a lengthy rebuttal, concluding, “this is the most error-ridden and unsatisfactory government report I can recall reading during or after decades of government service.”

    And major political figures, including Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump, Senator Marco Rubio, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, and both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, have vouched for the credibility of UAP witnesses and whistleblowers.

    “I’ve interviewed solid people,” said former president Donald Trump in September, “great pilots for the US Air Force, et cetera, they’ve seen things that they cannot explain.”

    Trump has said repeatedly that the government has information about UAPs that it has not released. In 2020, during a podcast with his son, Donald Trump, Jr., Trump said, “I won’t talk to you about what I know about it, but it’s very interesting.”

    In June of this year, Trump said that the government has information about UAPs that it has not released. “I have access,” he said, “and I speak to people about it. I’ve had actually meetings on it. And they will tell you there’s something going on.”

    In 2021, former CIA Director John Brennan said, “I think some of the phenomena we may be seeing continue to be unexplained and might be some type of phenomenon that results from something that we don’t yet understand and could involve some type of activity that some might say constitutes a different form of life.”

    The same year, the current Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, said UAPs could constitute non-human intelligence (NHI).

    In 2023, a high-ranking former intelligence officer named David Grusch testified to Congress that the US government had retrieved spacecraft of nonhuman origin and bodies, which US government insiders told Public was accurate.

    In July 2022, the Intelligence Community Inspector General concluded that Grusch’s complaint that “elements” of the IC had withheld or hidden UAP-related information from Congress “to purposely and intentionally thwart legitimate Congressional oversight of the UAP Program” was both “credible” and “urgent.”

    At the time, Charles McCullough III, the first Inspector General of the Intelligence Community, who the US Senate had confirmed for his job in 2011, represented Grusch.

    That does not mean that extraterrestrial beings occupy or are operating the UAPs, nor that the US government and military contractors are hiding crashed alien spacecraft or bodies, as some former astronauts, former IC officers, and former military leaders claim.

    There are other explanations for UAPs. Current dominant alternative theories, including those put forward by AARO, are that UAPs are some kind of natural phenomenon we don’t yet understand, like ball lighting or plasma. They could also be part of some new US or foreign government weapons program, such as drones, aircraft, balloons, CGI hoaxes, or birds.

    Elon Musk thinks UFO sightings are probably experimental U.S. miltech. Let’s hope so.

    Other UAP skeptics say that some combination of government disinformation and social contagion, like the Satanic panic of the 1980s or the Salem witch trials, among UAP believers in the US military are driving the phenomenon.

    Is it possible that the Pentagon and CIA are still playing disinformation games with the American people to cover up unacknowledged programs? Or that intelligence and security agencies, as well as politicians, are creating a UAP hoax to frighten the public? And is it possible that whistleblowers are fabricating parts or all of their testimony?

    The US Air Force allegedly used disinformation against a UFO buff in the past to cover up a weapons program. Something similar could be happening today.

    However, no available evidence supports that theory. And so, while this possibility should not be ignored, for it to be true, it would require a complicated conspiracy with unclear motivations.

    As Senator Rubio noted last year, “Most of [the UAP whistleblowers] have held very high clearances and high positions within our government. So, you do ask yourself: What incentive would so many people with that kind of qualification – these are serious people – have to come forward and make something up?”

    Rubio also said that individuals in “high clearances and high positions within our government” with “firsthand knowledge” of UAPs were “fearful of harm coming to them.”

    Grusch and other UAP whistleblowers say the government retaliated against them and tried to stop them from going public.

    Snip.

    Existing and former US government officials have told members of Congress that AARO and the Pentagon have broken the law by not revealing a significant body of information about UAPs, including military intelligence databases that have evidence of their existence as physical craft.

    One of these individuals is a current or former US government official acting as a UAP whistleblower. The person has written a report that says “the Executive Branch has been managing UAP/NHI issues without Congressional knowledge, oversight, or authorization for some time, quite possibly decades.”

    Furthermore, these individuals have revealed the name of an active and highly secretive DOD “Unacknowledged Special Access Program,” or USAP. The source of the document told Public that the USAP is a “strategic intelligence program” that is part of the US military’s family of long-standing, highly-sensitive programs dealing with various aspects of the UAP ‘problem.’”

    (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

    Supposedly the name of this secret UFO program is Immaculate Constellation.

    All this adds up to something that congress should probably look into…but far short of actual proof that extraterrestrial vehicles are visiting earth. Just because a “whistleblower” says something doesn’t make it true.

    Extraordinary claims still require extraordinary evidence…

    *Do I actually have a 10 foot pole? Actually I have a 16′ extending pole (similar to this one, though with a different brand name), which I’ve found useful for things like knocking dead branches out of a tree, or getting a Frisbee off a neighbor’s roof. Back when Dwight worked in an office, he used to borrow it to use as a Festavus pole…

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    Posted in Military, Uncategorized | 19 Comments »

    Latest Microsoft Patch Fixes TEN Zero Day Exploits

    Wednesday, August 21st, 2024

    “Patch Tuesday” is when Microsoft (and other software companies) regularly release patches for their software on the second Tuesday of a month. A “zero day exploit” is a serious, previously undisclosed security flaw in a shipping piece of software. Not every Patch Tuesday includes a zero day fix, and sometimes the release only fixes one or two.

    The latest Microsoft Patch Tuesday fix, released last Tuesday, fixes ten zero day vulnerabilities, six of which were already being exploited in the wild.

    Attackers are actively exploiting as many as six of the 90 vulnerabilities that Microsoft disclosed in its security update for August, making them a top priority for administrators this Patch Tuesday.

    Another four CVEs in Microsoft’s update were publicly known before the Aug. 13 disclosure, which also make them zero-days of a sort, even though attackers have not yet begun exploiting them. Among them, an elevation of privilege (EoP) bug in Windows Update Stack, tracked as CVE-2024-38202, is particularly troubling because Microsoft does not yet have a patch for it.

    The unpatched flaw allows an attacker with “basic user privileges to reintroduce previously mitigated vulnerabilities or circumvent some features of Virtualization Based Security (VBS),” according to Microsoft. The company has assessed the bug as being only of moderate severity because an attacker would need to trick an administrator or user with delegated permissions into performing a system restore.

    However, Scott Caveza, staff research engineer at Tenable, says that if an attacker were to chain CVE-2024-38202 with CVE-2024-21302 (an EoP flaw in the current update that affects Windows Secure Kernel), they would be able to roll back software updates without the need for any interaction with a privileged user. “CVE-2024-38202 does require ‘additional interaction by a privileged user,’ according to Microsoft,” he says. “However, the chaining of CVE-2024-21302 allows an attacker to downgrade or roll back software versions without the need for interaction from a victim with elevated privileges.”

    Caveza says each vulnerability can be exploited separately, but when combined, they could potentially have a more significant impact.

    In all, seven of the bugs that Microsoft disclosed this week are rated as critical. The company rated 79 CVEs — including the zero-days that attackers are actively exploiting — as “Important,” or of medium severity, because they involve some level of user interaction or other requirement for an attacker to exploit. “While this isn’t the biggest release, it is unusual to see so many bugs listed as public or under active attack in a single release,” said Dustin Childs, head of threat awareness at Trend Micro’s Zero Day Initiative (ZDI), in a blog post.

    This is, to use a technical term, “bad.”

    I’m not an expert in Windows security, but ten zero day exploits sounds like a new record.

    And just who is exploiting this vulnerability in the wild? Well, in one case, North Korea.

    A Windows zero-day vulnerability recently patched by Microsoft was exploited by hackers working on behalf of the North Korean government so they could install custom malware that’s exceptionally stealthy and advanced, researchers reported Monday.

    Getting pwned by North Korea is like getting arrested for knocking over a liquor store because you posted a picture of yourself in front of the store holding up the stolen cash on Facebook.

    The vulnerability, tracked as CVE-2024-38193, was one of six zero-days—meaning vulnerabilities known or actively exploited before the vendor has a patch—fixed in Microsoft’s monthly update release last Tuesday. Microsoft said the vulnerability—in a class known as a “use after free”—was located in AFD.sys, the binary file for what’s known as the ancillary function driver and the kernel entry point for the Winsock API. Microsoft warned that the zero-day could be exploited to give attackers system privileges, the maximum system rights available in Windows and a required status for executing untrusted code.

    Microsoft warned at the time that the vulnerability was being actively exploited but provided no details about who was behind the attacks or what their ultimate objective was. On Monday, researchers with Gen—the security firm that discovered the attacks and reported them privately to Microsoft—said the threat actors were part of Lazarus, the name researchers use to track a hacking outfit backed by the North Korean government.

    “The vulnerability allowed attackers to bypass normal security restrictions and access sensitive system areas that most users and administrators can’t reach,” Gen researchers reported. “This type of attack is both sophisticated and resourceful, potentially costing several hundred thousand dollars on the black market. This is concerning because it targets individuals in sensitive fields, such as those working in cryptocurrency engineering or aerospace to get access to their employer’s networks and steal cryptocurrencies to fund attackers’ operations.”

    Monday’s blog post said that Lazarus was using the exploit to install FudModule, a sophisticated piece of malware discovered and analyzed in 2022 by researchers from two separate security firms: AhnLab and ESET. Named after the FudModule.dll file that once was present in its export table, FudModule is a type of malware known as a rootkit. It stood out for its ability to operate robustly in the deep in the innermost recess of Windows, a realm that wasn’t widely understood then or now. That capability allowed FudModule to disable monitoring by both internal and external security defenses.

    Rootkits are pieces of malware that have the ability to hide their files, processes, and other inner workings from the operating system itself and, at the same time, control the deepest levels of the operating system. To work, rootkits must first gain system privileges and go on to directly interact with the kernel, the area of an operating system reserved for the most sensitive functions. The FudModule variants discovered by AhnLabs and ESET were installed using a technique called “bring your own vulnerable driver,” which involves installing a legitimate driver with known vulnerabilities to gain access to the kernel.

    Earlier this year, researchers from security firm Avast spotted a newer FudModule variant that bypassed key Windows defenses such as Endpoint Detection and Response, and Protected Process Light. Microsoft took six months after Avast privately reported the vulnerability to fix it, a delay that allowed Lazarus to continue exploiting it.

    Whereas Lazarus used “bring your own vulnerable driver” to install earlier versions of FudModule, group members installed the variant discovered by Avast by exploiting a bug in appid.sys, a driver enabling the Windows AppLocker service, which comes preinstalled in Windows. Avast researchers said at the time the Windows vulnerability exploited in those attacks represented a holy grail for hackers because it was baked directly into the OS rather than having to be installed from third-party sources.

    As I’ve noted before, Internet security is hard. Neither Mac nor Linux are entirely free of such exploits, but they seem to be a lot less frequent. Log4J wasn’t a Linux kernel exploit, but everyone (rightly) freaked out over it because Log4j was used everywhere and it let attackers install malicious code on your server.

    Microsoft patching ten zero day exploits suggests that there’s a big problem up in Redmond. You would think the zero day vulnerability numbers would be going down, not up. I wonder if we might be seeing that start of widespread AI use to find vulnerabilities in software.

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    Posted in Crime, Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

    Another Texas Sales Tax Holiday Starts Tomorrow

    Thursday, August 8th, 2024

    Another sales tax holiday, this one for back-to-school, starts tomorrow, August 9th.

    The Comptroller encourages all taxpayers to support Texas businesses while saving money on tax-free purchases of most clothing, footwear, school supplies and backpacks (sold for less than $100) during the annual Tax-Free weekend. Qualifying items can be purchased tax free from a Texas store or from an online or catalog seller doing business in Texas. In most cases, you do not need to give the seller an exemption certificate to buy qualifying items tax free.

    This year’s sales tax holiday begins Friday, Aug. 9, and goes through midnight Sunday, Aug. 11.

    The sales tax exemption applies only to qualifying items you buy during the sales tax holiday. Items you buy before or after the sales tax holiday do not qualify for exemption, and there is no tax refund available.

    Qualifying Items

  • Clothing and Footwear
  • Face Masks
  • Backpacks
  • School Supplies

    • So if you need clothes, paper, etc., you can save some money this weekend.

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    Posted in Texas, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

    The Joe Biden Experience

    Saturday, July 13th, 2024

    This video is almost genius in its simplicity: Joe Biden as Joe Rogan, interviewing Joe Biden, all populated exclusively with actual Biden audio.

    I’m not going to do a blow-by-blow recap, since the video is short and you’ll probably recognize most or all of the snippets. And who doesn’t love the loopy Corn-Pop/rusty razors in rain barrels story?

    The creators missed an opportunity to spoof the theme music, though. “The Joe Biden Experience! 10-4 all day! None at night!”

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    Posted in Democrats, Uncategorized, video | 5 Comments »

    Supreme Court Shuts Down Another Democrat Election Fraud Vector

    Wednesday, April 24th, 2024

    In many states, Democrats can’t win unless they cheat, and that’s why they want easily-abused universal mail-in voting to become to the norm. To that end, Democrats sued Texas (yet again) over mail-in voting limitations, and once again their lawsuit against election security laws was denied by the Supreme Court.

    An attempt to revive the Texas Democratic Party’s 2020 challenge to the state’s mail-in ballot restrictions was denied this week by the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The court denied a petition for a writ of certiorari from Joseph Cascino, Marie Sansing, and Brenda Li Garcia — residents of Texas who do not qualify for mail-in voting under current law. They filed their petition back in December.

    In Texas anyone may vote early in person, but only those aged 65 or older, disabled, or out of their county of residence during the election may vote by mail.

    The trio of petitioners argued that their right to vote is impinged by those limitations and that the 26th Amendment bars any such division of classification between voters.

    The case was originally made in 2020 by the Texas Democratic Party, which secured a temporary victory in the trial court. The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals reversed that decision and the Supreme Court denied an appeal of that reversal.

    Represented by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG), Secretary of State Jane Nelson countered, “Some States endorse no-excuse absentee voting; others require in-person voting with narrow exceptions.”

    “This diversity of approaches reflects a healthy federalism and accords with the uncontroversial notion that ‘government must play an active role in structuring elections.’”

    The court did not issue any opinion or reasoning with the dismissal.

    “Many states irresponsibly and unconstitutionally changed their voting policies prior to the 2020 election,” Attorney General Ken Paxton said of the dismissal. “Fortunately, we did things differently in Texas: we fought hard to uphold Texas law and defend the integrity of elections in this State.”

    Texas did change its voting policy during the 2020 election — Gov. Greg Abbott used disaster powers to unilaterally extend early voting by a week — and while no ruling declared it unconstitutional, the extension was done without input from the Legislature, which was the very contention of Paxton’s 2020 election suit against other states who similarly changed voting laws through executive order.

    Two state senators, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, then-Texas GOP Chair Allen West, and a bevy of then-current or former state representatives sued over the action. The Texas Supreme Court denied their motion for an emergency stay as Paxton was named as one of the attorneys for Texas Secretary of State Ruth Hughs.

    Another argument that was denied back in 2020 was that the threat of contracting COVID-19 constituted a disability under the state Election Code; it was also ultimately rejected.

    The practical onus for the original lawsuit was Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins’ unsolicited mailing of absentee ballot applications to all voters. That action was halted by the Texas Supreme Court in October 2020.

    In Harris County, I’m sure that Lina Hidalgo is very disappointed that vote tabulation sites won’t be able to pull out boxes of miraculously overlooked mail-in ballots to alter tallies at 3 AM on November 5th…

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Social Justice Warriors, Supreme Court, Texas, Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

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