Another Case Of That Democratic Party Voting Fraud That Doesn’t Exist

December 27th, 2023

From New York City…

Pace Salsa

…comes another example of that voting fraud that Democrats swear up and down doesn’t exist.

Last week in New York City, a city resident was indicted for submitting over 100 absentee ballot applications during the 2022 Democrat primaries, The Federalist reports.

In a press release dated Dec. 19, 2023, Queens District Attorney Melinda Katz announced the suspect, Abdul Rahman, was arraigned on an indictment charging him with falsifying business records, criminal possession of a forged instrument, and other crimes for submitting falsified absentee ballot applications for the August 2022 Democratic primary election.

Snip.

The investigation into Rahman began after a Queens voter, Jordan Sandke, went to vote in person in the primary; however, he was refused, with a poll worker telling him “an absentee ballot had already been requested in his name.” That began an investigation whereby authorities discovered an absentee ballot had been filled out, signed, and dated in Sandke’s name on Aug. 1, 2022, with Rahman listed as the person authorized to pick up and deliver the ballot.

According to Katz’s office, Sandke “had not filled out, signed or submitted the application, and said he had never met [Rahman] or authorized him to pick up an absentee ballot on his behalf.” Under New York law, only the person designated on a voter’s ballot to pick up and deliver it may do so.”

During the investigation, it was determined that Sandke’s application was one of 118 Rahman dropped off at the Queens County Board of Elections office on Aug. 8, 2022, all of which named him as “the individual authorized to pick up the ballots.” The office approved thirty-two of the ballots, which Rahman retrieved the following day. Authorities interviewed a number of those named on the ballots, and several said they had not permitted Rahman “to pick up a ballot for them.”

Snip.

Rahman, 32, who lives in Floral Park, Queens, was arraigned on a 140-count indictment, charging him with 20 counts of criminal possession of a forged instrument in the second degree; 20 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree; 20 counts of offering a false instrument for filing in the first degree; 20 counts of criminal possession of a forged instrument in the third degree; 20 counts of falsifying business records in the second degree; 20 counts of offering a false instrument for filing in the second degree; and 20 counts of illegal voting.

Supreme Court Justice Toni Cimino ordered Rahman to return to court on January 30, 2024. He faces up to seven years in prison if convicted.

Democrats swear up and down voting fraud doesn’t exist, even when Democrats are on video doing it or when they plead guilty to the fraud charges. How many close elections have been flipped due to all that non-existent fraud?

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Posted in Economics, Elections | 3 Comments »

What F-16s Would Mean for Ukraine

December 26th, 2023

With three Russian aircraft downed over the weekend, there’s been some speculation that Ukraine already has some of the F-16s promised to it by NATO members Netherlands, Norway and Denmark. While possible, last word was that the transfer was still in preparation, though evidently the first batch of pilots have already finished training in the UK. And there’s no shortage of weapon systems that might have shot down Russian aircraft.

It appears the model Denmark, Norway and Netherlands all have is F-16AM/BM Block 15 MLU, which means they’re pretty old F-16s (bad), but were all upgraded (good), but the upgrades arrived in 1996 (not exactly bad, but not great either).

I would expect them to beat the snot out of anything manufactured in the Soviet Union, hold their own against the Su-30 (and possibly the Su-34, of which the Russians have lost a considerable number), maybe get edged by the Su-35 (though maybe not; that platform has had a lot of teething problems), and should theoretically be outclassed by the Su-57, which on paper is a thoroughly modern fighter aircraft with stealth capability (assuming the Russians will even let it go up against a near peer aircraft; they’ve seemed to use it very sparingly after the early stages of the war). And given the NATO country origins, expect all to be better maintained than their Russian counterparts.

This quick and dirty comparison analysis, of course, assumes that said planes will be engaged in dogfighting, which we’ve seen precious little of since the opening days of the war. Indeed, the aerial environment has become so deadly in Ukraine that neither side ventures much in airspace controlled by the other, and the favored Russian ground support tactic seems to be to fly up just short of the front live, release dumb munitions in an arc calculated to have it come down someone in the general vicinity of the enemy forces, then hightail it home and call it a day.

Ukraine getting F-16s would make Russian air activity near the front line even less likely, with AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles and their 60 mile range offering a real threat to splash anything that gets near the contested territory.

While the lethality of the airspace over Russian-held territory will also discourage too much direct sorties against Russian forces (at least at first), the AGM-88 HARM missile would considerably speed up the destruction of Russian anti-aircraft systems.

Russia’s S-400 system (their answer to Patriot) is probably good enough to shoot down the pre-stealth F-16, but Ukraine has had some success in destroying those systems. A squadron of F-16s launched from Odessa is easily within strike range of Sevastopol, and either JDAMs or Harpoons would be enough to sink whatever is left of the Black Sea Fleet that Russia has foolishly left there. And Harpoon-armed F1-6s on regular patrol would probably be enough to deny use of the northwest Black Sea to all of Russia’s surface fleet.

With enough degradation of Russia’s air defense systems, Ukraine might be able to achieve local air superiority in regions like Kherson, which could prove very valuable in future offensives.

A final advantage: With over 4,000 F-16s built, spare parts should be readily available to keep them flying.

Some 50-100 F-16s in Ukraine’s arsenal probably wouldn’t be the game changer that, say, HIMARS and ATACMS have proven, but they might be enough to shift the balance of power top further erode Russia’s hold over illegally seized Ukrainian territory.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 32 Comments »

Merry Christmas!

December 25th, 2023

As is the now annual tradition, enjoy Stellarscope’s version of “Silent Night”:

Merry Christmas!

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Posted in video | No Comments »

Library Additions: Seven Non-Fiction Books

December 24th, 2023

I usually note library additions in the other blog, but all of these but two are political or military books. Two are also signed copies replacing or supplementing unsigned copies.

  • Bush, Barbara. A Memoir. Scribner’s, 1994. First edition hardback, a Fine copy in a Fine- dust jacket with slight bumping at heel and trace of wear at points, inscribed by Bush: “To Chris Hyatt/With best wishes/Barbara Bush/December 1998. Autobiography by First Lady Barbara Bush, wife of 41 and mother of 43, who died in 2018. Not my usual thing, but I stumbled across it checking for signatures in books by 41 and 43. Bought for $14.48 at Half Price Books.

  • Hemple, Stuart. Dread & Superficiality: Woody Allen as Comic Strip. Abrams Comic Arts, 2009. First edition hardback, a Fine copy in a Near Fine dust jacket with slight waviness, slight grubbiness to uncoated stock, and a thin scratch across bottom of spine. Received as a Christmas gift only because, many moons ago, I noted to Dwight my incredulity that this comic strip ever existed at all. Yes, Woody Allen’s neurotic nebbish character was so well known in the 1970s that a comic strip based on it (but written and drawn by someone else) appeared in numerous newspapers from 1976-1964. I am equally incredulous that someone found the strip worth of a prestige retrospective collection. Supplements my copy of Non-Being and Somethingness, which contains selections from the strip.

  • Hill, Doug and Jeff Weingrad. Saturday Night: A Backstage History of Saturday Night Live. Beech Tree Books, 1986. First edition hardback, a Fine- copy with bumping at head and heel in a Near Fine dust jacket with with one 1/16″ chip at heel, crease to bottom of front flap, slight bumping at head and heel and a bit of pull to top jacket edge. History of Saturday Night Live. Part of a very small collection of books on early SNL. Most people today don’t realize how amazingly funny, daring and groundbreaking the original cast SNL was. Bought for $4.99.

  • King, Florence. Reflections in a Jaundiced Eye. St. Martin’s Press, 1989. First edition hardback, a Near Fine copy with slight bumping at head and heel and thrift store stamp to insider rear cover, in a Fine- dust jacket with slight bumping at head, in a Mylar dust jacket protector. Collection of essays. Replaces an Ex-Library copy. Bought for $7.99.

  • McBride, H. W. A Rifleman Went to War. Small-Arms Tactical Publishing Company, 1935. First edition, second printing (according to Dwight’s bibliography of this press), a Near Fine copy with a slight bit of spine wear and previous owner’s bookplate, in a Very Good- dust jacket with 1 1/2″ wide x 1/2″ deep chip at head, small chip at heel, creasing along front flap fold, and general wear, but no loss of lettering anywhere, in a Mylar dust jacket protector. Memoirs of the experiences of an American rifleman who joined the Canadian expeditionary forces during World War I (my second favorite World War). A Christmas gift from Dwight, who collects this press.

  • Murray, Charles. Losing Ground: American Social Policy 1950-1980. Basic Books, 1984. Third printing, a Fine- copy in a Fine- dust jacket, with slighting bumping at head and heel, a trace of wear at points, and a touch of surface wear, inscribed by Murray: “To Dr. Harry Schmitt,/with best wishes/Charles Murray/18 July 1986.” (I wonder if this was inscribed to former astronaut and Republican senator Harrison Schmitt.) This is probably the most important book ever written about the American welfare state, in which Murray showed in meticulously researched detail why the welfare state expansions instituted by Lyndon Baines Johnson’s Great Society inflicted lasting economic and social harm to black families in America. Without Losing Ground, the welfare reform act of 1996 never would have happened. It came out back when some Democrats will still willing to look at research and data rather that automatically calling critics of the welfare state racist. Highly recommended. Supplements an unsigned first printing. (I had a second printing inscribed to me that I foolish lent out and never had returned.) Bought for $5.99.

  • Thorburn, Wayne. Red State: An Insiders Story of How the GOP Came to Dominate Texas Politics. University of Texas Press, 2014. First edition hardback, a Fine copy in a Fine-dust jacket with just a touch of wear, signed by Thorburn. This is an interesting book that describes (among other things) how leftists deliberately drove conservatives and moderates out of their own party so they could control the Democratic Party. Of course, they expected voters would simply keep voting for Democrats, but that didn’t happen. Recommended. Bought for $7. Replaces an unsigned copy.

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    Posted in Media Watch, Military, Waste and Fraud, Welfare State | 1 Comment »

    Hamas: We Make Our Own Sniper Rifles! Ian McCollum: Busted!

    December 23rd, 2023

    While Israel pounds the snot out of it, Hamas continues its long-running video deception operations. “Pallywood” usually uses its video editing to gin up more Palestinian civilian casualties from Israeli, but this time they’re trying to convince the world they make their own “al-Ghoul” sniper rifles. Ian McCollum looks at the resulting video, and concludes that, once again, they’re full of it.

    Pretty much nothing they’re doing in the video involves actual manufacturing of sniper rifles.

  • “Yesterday Hamas posted a video on Twitter/X that is purporting to show them manufacturing what they call the al-Ghoul sniper rifles in some secret bunker, presumably in Gaza. This is nonsense. I thought we should take a minute and let’s go through this video and see what’s actually being shown in it.”
  • “Because I’ve manufactured rifles, I’ve been in a lot of rifle factories, I’ve done hand loading, I’ve seen a lot of hand loading, I’ve seen ammunition factories, and this video includes none of that.”
  • “They’ve got the two guys working on lathes. And they clearly want you to think that these are barrels on the lathes. However, what they are doing here is turning the outside profile of the barrel. The difficult element in manufacturing a barrel, if you want to convince me that you are actually manufacturing barrels, what I want to see is the rifling process, because otherwise you got nothing.”
  • “If you are making a barrel, the first thing you’re going to do is center bore it (what they actually call ‘gun drill’ it), then you are going to ream it, then you are going to rifle it and then lastly you are going to turn the outside diameter.”
  • “Immediately on the next shot we see them turning the outside profile of this piece of steel and there is smoke coming off of it. You don’t want smoke coming off. They are not running lubricant on this. That’s a problem, that’s not how you manufacture precision anything, much less precision sniper rifles.”
  • “What they are doing looks like machining, but it’s wrong in all sorts of ways.” I’m going to omit some of the technical details, but What He Said.
  • “The al-Ghoul is not a domestic Gazan or Palestinian designed firearm, the al-Ghoul is actually an Iranian AM-50, which is like the Steyr HS .50 that we have at home. Iran purchased like 800 HS .50s a bunch of years ago. They then reverse engineered it and made a really crude copy of it that they call the AM-50, that they have provided to all sorts of basically terror and terror-associated groups.”
  • “What we’re looking at here is an Iranian manufactured AM-50.”
  • “I think they are making dummy parts for the sake of video here.”
  • He thinks they may actually be manufacturing the optics mount.
  • “He guy’s pulled one [part] off of the mill and he’s measuring it, like let’s measure a random part to look good on camera.”
  • He said it looks a whole lot like how reality TV depicts gun manufacturing.
  • “There is absolutely nothing in that shot that couldn’t be take a complete Iranian rifle, detail strip it, take all the pieces apart, and then turn on the camera and put the pieces back together.”
  • “One of the most interesting shots in the video, which is the marking on the side of this gun. Because this says something like Al Qassam Brigade Sniper Rifle, 12.7x99mm. 12.7×99 by the way is .50 Browning.” AKA .50 BMG.
  • “The guy pulls out a round of 12.7 ammo and now they want to show you their manufacturing process of precision ammo. And there’s some stuff in here that is definitely wrong.” Like the steel case, which may be fine for Soviet designed crap, but isn’t right for .50 BMG, and is much harder to reload properly than brass.
  • There are a lot more details why the ammo loading process is wrong. I’m just going to note that Hamas has a lower-rate, cruder ammo-reloading setup than random Texas gun owners I’ve known. You can get a fully progressive reloading press for under a grand these days, none of this hand-loading assembly line crap that takes Hamas members away from their main job of killing Israeli women and children.
  • “I don’t think we saw any actual loading of ammunition here.”
  • “I’m pretty sure that the al-Ghoul is, in fact, essentially is a re-badged Steyr AM-50.”
  • “The AM-50 is not a particularly great rifle.”
  • “The only thing we can see 100% in this video is that they have complete AM-50s that they have disassembled and put back together. And they want you to think that they are manufacturing stuff.”

    • Par for the Pallywood course…

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    Posted in Guns, Jihad, Military, video | 1 Comment »

    LinkSwarm For December 22, 2023

    December 22nd, 2023

    The Colorado Supreme Court goes full TDS, IDF blows more Hamas tunnels, more unconstitutional gun laws are struck down, and news about two different Francises. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • The big news this week is that the Colorado Supreme Court got way, way, way out over their skis by kicking Donald Trump off the 2024 ballot despite him not being convicted of any crimes.

    The Colorado supreme court on Tuesday ruled that former president Donald Trump is ineligible to appear on the state’s ballot in the 2024 presidential election.

    In a 4–3 ruling, the court held that Trump’s presence on the ballot “would be a wrongful act under the Election Code,” arguing that the former president is disqualified from holding the presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

  • Even the Washington Post said the decision was wrong. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • “The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) destroyed a vast network on underground tunnels inside Gaza City this week that belonged to top Hamas terrorist officials. Yahalom Unit Combat Engineering Forces discovered Hamas’ “Elite Quarter” on Wednesday, including “a large network of strategic underground tunnels which connect hideouts, and bureaus belonging to Hamas’ senior military and political leadership,” the IDF said in a statement.”

    It blew up real good:

  • “Oklahoma bans DEI requirements at public colleges and universities, requires cuts to ‘non-critical personnel.’ Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt announced the mandate Wednesday, citing a need to spend more money on preparing young Oklahomans for the workforce, and less on ‘six-figure salaries to DEI staff.'” Faster, please. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • “Federal judge blocks California gun control law against firearms in public places.”

    On Wednesday, a federal judge blocked a California law that would have banned the carrying of firearms in many public places, calling the legislation “sweeping, repugnant to the Second Amendment, and openly defiant of the Supreme Court.”

    According to Fox News, US District Judge Cormac Carney granted a preliminary injunction blocking the law, adding that it removes people’s ability to defend themselves and their families.

    The law was signed into law in September by Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom and was scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1. The legislation banned people from carrying concealed firearms in places such as public parks, playgrounds, and religious institutions, regardless if they have a concealed weapon carry permit or not.

    Chuck Michel, president of the California Rifle and Pistol Association, which sued to block the law, said in a statement, “California progressive politicians refuse to accept the Supreme Court’s mandate from the Bruen case and are trying every creative ploy they can imagine to get around it. The Court saw through the State’s gambit.”

    He added that if that law had gone into effect, permit holders “wouldn’t be able to drive across town without passing through a prohibited area and breaking the law.”

  • Speaking of lawsuits: “Virginia Supreme Court Backs Teacher Fired For Not Using Student’s Preferred Pronouns.” Let the lawsuits fly. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • “Dem Staffer Busted for Having Gay Sex in Senate Hearing Room.” There’s more of that decorum and restoration of norms we keep hearing about… (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)
  • Harvard President Claudine Gay’s plagiarism scandal is even worse than previously thought.

    Gay has been credibly accused of more than 40 acts of plagiarism during her tenure at Harvard – which the university secretly investigated, threatened journalists over, and ultimately concluded was no big deal – clearing her of breaching Harvard’s “standards for research misconduct.”

    The Times, looking at just five examples of Gay’s plagiarism, wrote: “her papers sometimes lift passages verbatim from other scholars and at other times make minor adjustments, like changing the word “adage” to “popular saying” or “Black male children” to “young black athletes.””

    One rule for the elite, another for you…

  • “Investigators Beginning To Suspect Claudine Gay’s Novel ‘Larry Potter And The Sorcerer’s Rock’ May Have Been Plagiarized.”
  • Fat Leonard is back in custody.

    Returning convicted defense contractor Leonard “Fat Leonard” Francis to U.S. custody as part of the Venezuelan prisoner swap on Wednesday is the latest twist in a decade-long salacious saga and bribery scheme that swept up dozens of American Navy officers.

    One of the biggest bribery investigations in U.S. military history led to the conviction and sentencing of nearly two dozen Navy officials, defense contractors and others on various fraud and corruption charges. And it was punctuated by Francis’ daring escape last year, when he fled from house arrest at his San Diego home to South America.

    An enigmatic figure who was 6-foot-3 and weighed 350 pounds at one time, Francis owned and operated his family’s ship servicing business, Singapore-based Glenn Defense Marine Asia Ltd. or GDMA, which supplied food, water and fuel to vessels. The Malaysian defense contractor was a key contact for U.S. Navy ships at ports across Asia for more than two decades. During that time he wooed naval officers with Kobe beef, expensive cigars, concert tickets and wild sex parties at luxury hotels from Thailand to the Philippines.

    In exchange, the officers, including the first active-duty admiral to be convicted of a federal crime, concealed the scheme in which Francis would overcharge for supplying ships or charge for fake services at ports he controlled in Southeast Asia. The officers passed him classified information and even went so far as redirecting military vessels to ports that were lucrative for his Singapore-based ship servicing company.

    In a federal sting, Francis was lured to San Diego on false pretenses and arrested at a hotel in September 2013. He pleaded guilty in 2015, admitting that he had offered more than $500,000 in cash bribes to Navy officials, defense contractors and others. Prosecutors say he bilked the Navy out of at least $35 million. As part of his plea deal, he cooperated with the investigation leading to the Navy convictions. He faced up to 25 years in prison.

    While awaiting sentencing, Francis was hospitalized and treated for renal cancer and other medical issues. After leaving the hospital, he was allowed to stay out of jail at a rental home, on house arrest with a GPS ankle monitor and security guards.

  • Far left Austin Democrat (and now U.S. Representative) Greg Casar
    is now singing a different tune on police patrols.

    An Austin, Texas Democrat politician is demanding police step up their patrols in his neighborhood despite previously voting to defund them.

    Yes, in the latest example of ‘Do as I say not as I do,’ Representative Greg Casar now says that he wants more police for at least the next week. It’s unclear why the Congressman wanted the extra police.

    The Austin Police Retired Officers Association however did not hold back and called out the Congressman’s sudden change of tone.

    “We want everyone in Austin to feel safe, but this seems to us as the height of hypocrisy from the congressman. Maybe he should hire private security like his fellow squad members do. Sure seems like he wants the police in his neighborhood just not yours,” the ROA tweeted out.

    Snip. “In 2020, Casar couldn’t hold back how happy he was when he helped the Austin City Council reduce the Austin Police Department’s budget by over $100 million.” (Previously.)

  • “Delta, American Airlines fly illegal immigrants from Biden’s Arizona processing centers into domestic US on late night flights.”
  • Elizabeth Warren wants to enact an unconstitutional wealth tax.
  • “Taco stand owner spends $4k per WEEK in private security to protect his business (it’s more than his rent).” This is in D.C. And the cost for that gets passed on to everyone buying a taco…
  • Good: A fat Christmas duck roasting in your oven. Bad: A fat duck roasting in your engine right after takeoff. “Do you need an emergency vehicle?” “We need everything you have.” This was two days ago.
  • Military history YouTuber Mark Felton goes to visit Vatican City, and accidentally ends up getting an audience with the Pope.
  • Toshiba was delisted from the Tokyo Stock Exchange after 74 years and is being taken private.
  • Been a little lite on dog content for the last few LinkSwarms. so he’s a Ryan George skit about dogs and Christmas:

    • Hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





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    Posted in Austin, Border Control, Crime, Democrats, Elections, Foreign Policy, Guns, Jihad, Military, Obama Scandals, ObamaCare, Regulation, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas, video | 1 Comment »

    Biden’s Illegal Alien Flood Results in 7 Year Court Date Wait

    December 21st, 2023

    The Biden Administration’s attempt to flood the country with illegal aliens continues apace. The situation has gotten so bad that aliens seeking asylum are now receiving court dates in 2031.

    U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement have set a court date for an illegal alien seeking asylum on January 23, 2031, more than seven years away.

    Fox News Correspondent Bill Melugin reports that the Colombian woman seeking asylum crossed illegally into El Paso, and her immigration attorney, Matthew Kolken, is shocked by the six-year wait time to process her claim.

    “Kolken tells me his client is a legitimate asylum seeker with what he feels is an air tight case, but because the system is so backlogged with illegitimate asylum claims, he’s not sure they’ll ever get a chance to argue it in court with her next check in 8 years into the future,” posted Melugin on X.

    “It made me realize the Biden administration is basically providing backdoor amnesty for anyone who wants to show up at the border,” Kolken told Melugin.

    Citizens responded with outrage in the comments.

    “Will be voting in 2 national election cycles before her court date,” posted Dr. Joe Borelli.

    Indeed, even if a Republican—presumably Trump based on polling—retakes the White House in 2024, he would be out of office by 2029, two years before the woman’s court date.

    According to Transactional Record Access Clearinghouse immigration data, the court backlog has reached a record 3 million pending cases.

    Meanwhile, illegal border crossers are released into the U.S. and flown to cities across the country.

    Democrats, of course, want as many illegal aliens as possible as new welfare state clientele and Democratic Party voters, either to vote illegally or to legalize via amnesty. And they seem intent on keeping high levels of illegals coming across the border no matter how much their existing welfare state clientele in blue cities complain about it.

    In other border control news, a 5th Circuit Court of Appeals judge “gutted a lower court’s decision that allowed the Biden administration to continue destroying concertina wire and other border barriers set by the State of Texas.”

    Attorney General Ken Paxton sued the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in October alleging that border guards were destroying the state’s barriers.

    The 5th Circuit decided that an earlier decision by a district judge in Del Rio denying a preliminary injunction is faulty. The decision only provides an exception for medical emergencies.

    “Concluding that the district court legally erred with respect to sovereign immunity and that Texas has otherwise satisfied the factors under Nken v. Holder, 556 U.S. 418, 434 (2009), we GRANT Texas’s request for an injunction pending appeal,” the judges wrote.

    “Accordingly, Defendants are ENJOINED during the pendency of this appeal from damaging, destroying, or otherwise interfering with Texas’s c-wire fence in the vicinity of Eagle Pass, Texas, as indicated in Texas’s complaint. As the parties have agreed, Defendants are permitted to cut or move the c-wire if necessary to address any medical emergency as specified in the TRO.”

    For all that the MSM constantly told us that Trump’s border wall is ineffective, they sure seem to spend a lot of effort trying to take it down…

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    Posted in Border Control, Crime, Texas | 5 Comments »

    Biggest Losers From Houthi Attacks? Not Israel And America

    December 20th, 2023

    It’s hard to report on Houthi rebels telling U.S. armed forces to “bring it on” and keep a straight face. It’s like Steve Urkel declaring he’s going to kick Mike Tyson’s ass, or Bambi vs. Godzilla.

    I mean, their video features a Northrup F-5, a plane introduced to service in 1964 and last manufactured in 1987. It would be very, very unlikely to defeat an F-15, much less an F-35, which would probably splash it from 50 miles away with an AIM-120 and be back in time for breakfast.

    I’m a bottomless well of Skiffy pop culture references.

    And the rest of their air force (or what little of it survives after Saudi air strikes) is old (and probably ill-maintained) Soviet crap of the type that got smoked by F-15s during Desert Storm more than 30 years ago.

    Beyond that, the Houthis probably only have the shitty drones Iran sells to Russia, and the even shittier rockets they give to Hamas, and neither of those will get the job done, either.

    So: Yeah.

    So instead of the laughable idea of direct Houthi-U.S. military confrontation, let’s turn to Peter Zeihan (yeah, him again) to talk about who the biggest losers are in the Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. (Hint: It’s not the U.S., or Israel.)

  • “Militants in Yemen are launching a combination of low-grade ballistic missiles and drones at commercial shipping in the Red Sea. And that’s led the 10 major shipping companies of the world to basically suspend operations in that area, and either tell their ships to wait [until] the threat passes, or simply sail around the Red Sea completely, which means going all the way around Africa for the Asia-Europe run.”
  • “Here we have basically a bunch of drug-adled militants, some of the world’s least competent ones, operating from some of the world’s least valuable land in Yemen, probably at the instigation of the Iranians who are their primary supporter, because this is a little conflict that is a needle in the side of Saudi Arabia cost them very little.”
  • “This is is not a formal shutting down of trade, this is more of a heavy annoyance.”
  • It’s not the danger of being sunk deterring traffic, it’s the dangerous of losing insurance for going into a zone of conflict.
  • Who’s hurt worst by all this? First, China. “Roughly 30% of all global containerized traffic [goes through Suez], and the biggest single chunk of that is Chinese exports to the European Union…it increases the sailing distance by 1/3rd to 2/3rds, and that means you need 1/3rd to 2/3rd more container ships to maintain the same flows. So we’re going to see a lot of pinches in the supply chains for finished goods.”
  • “In an environment where consumption is basically seized up in China and all they have left are exports, it’s also going to make it a little bit easier for the Europeans to put trade sanctions on the Chinese for product dumping.”
  • The Saudis might find it a bit more difficult to ship crude to Europe, but there are some ways around that.
  • Then there’s Russia: “Because of a lack of infrastructure, Russian crude had to be exported through the same port points on the Black and Baltic Sea, but it had to be then shipped through the Mediterranean through Suez through the Red Sea across the Arabian Sea to India, southeast Asia and China.”
  • “Well, that is barely an economically viable route now, which is one of the reasons why the Russians are typically selling their crude at a $20 to a $30 a barrel discount. But if Suez is closed, then they can no longer send these small tankers through it, and these small tankers don’t have the reach to go all the way around Africa.” I find the last assertion dubious, as they are surely ports in Africa they can resupply and refuel at, especially since I don’t think any countries in Africa have signed up for sanctions against Russia.
  • “So you’re looking at something like 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day of Russian crude that might finally actually be stranded if this isn’t solved pretty quickly now.”
  • Russian insurance update: “You have some Russian players, some Indian players, and some Chinese players who have started started to offer indemnification insurance. So we might get this really colorful situation where the real shipping companies stop using Suez and the Red Sea, but these shadow companies that have never had to pay out start using it and then we get to find out what happens if an Iranian-backed militant Force hits a Chinese Indian or Russian ship.” Good times, good time…

    • I also have to wonder if there are mercenaries Ukraine could hire to carry out letters of marquis and reprisal on Russian ships…

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    Posted in Jihad, Military, video | 9 Comments »

    Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw Files Bill To Ban DEI Statements At Universities

    December 19th, 2023

    Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw sometimes strikes me as a bit squishy, but his bill to ban requiring DEI statements at American universities is a step in the right direction.

    A Texas congressman has introduced legislation to quell diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) statements at American universities by prohibiting “ideological oaths and similar statements” on college campuses.

    The bill from Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX-2) would amend the Higher Education Act of 1965 by adding that a university cannot require an employee to “endorse an ideology that promotes the differential treatment of an individual or group of individuals based on race, color, or ethnicity[.]”

    The legislation would also prohibit universities from compelling employees to provide DEI statements.

    Crenshaw told National Review that “we can see the utter moral bankruptcy in higher education with the spread of antisemitism on college campuses.”

    “Make no mistake: The DEI bureaucracy is directly responsible for a toxic campus culture that separates everyone into oppressor versus oppressed.”

    “That’s why I am dropping legislation to protect free thought and prevent federal funding for universities that force students to write diversity, equity, and inclusion statements.”

    During its 88th regular session, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill (SB) 17 banning DEI offices at public institutions of higher education. Included in SB 17 are limitations placed on admissions, scholarships, and grants programs.

    This June, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down race-based affirmative action admission policies, an opinion based on the legal challenges raised against admission policies at Harvard University and the University of North Carolina that were accused of disadvantaging Asian applicants.

    Although legal challenges to such ideas appear to be winning, the radicalization of students and young people remains an issue to be confronted.

    This is a start, but falls far short of the sort of hard reboot our social justice-infected universities really need. And it’s deeply unlikely to pass the Democrat-controlled senate…

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    Posted in Supreme Court | 6 Comments »

    China, The Philippines, Marcos, And Blind Spots

    December 18th, 2023

    This post was going to be on how China is still screwing around in the South China Sea (and we’ll get to that), but I want to talk about the difficulty of keeping up with current events, especially of events in foreign nations, especially those nations that don’t usually receive too many headlines. It’s easy to develop blind spots and areas of ignorance.

    All of that is prelude to saying that until today, I had no idea that Ferdinand Marcos was President of the The Philippines.

    The Marcos in question is not dictator kleptocrat Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who died in 1989, but his son, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Romualdez Marcos Jr.. (Note how obvious it is that his Wikipedia entry was written by his political enemies.) He was elected in May 2022 and assumed office June 20, 2022. How did I miss that?

    In fact, I’ve actually heard more about the failed David Byrne/Fatboy Slim disco musical about his mother Imelda Marcos than I did about Bongbong.

    One reason is that I don’t subscribe to a newspaper, because I don’t want a dime going to the Democrat Media Complex. (“If you don’t read a newspaper, you’re ill informed. If you do read a newspaper, you’re misinformed.” – Probably Not Mark Twain) Ditto watching any network newscasts, and I don’t have cable.

    I checked my email, and evidently not one of the zillions of newsletters I get ever mentioned the Philippines election while they were going on. Which is odd, since it had a pretty compelling storyline: Marcos’ Vice Presidential running mate was Sara Duterte, the daughter of then President Rodrigo Duterte, in a sort of national unity ticket.

    Maybe I’m just out of touch and everyone else already knew about Ferdinand II: The Marcosing, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

    Anyway: China is screwing around with The Philippines again.

    On Dec. 9, China Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at Philippine supply ships in the Scarborough Shoal, where the Philippine ships had arrived to resupply fishermen. That’s just the latest skirmish in the disputed atoll, which is located near the Philippines but was seized by China in 2012. In fact, in recent months, China has markedly increased its maritime bullying in the waters off the Philippines. That trend is already beginning to spread nervousness among Western businesses interested in friendshoring some of their operations to the Philippines—which may be precisely what China is after.

    The water-cannon attack on the Philippine supply ships, which resulted in one of the vessels suffering engine damage and having to be towed back to port, came only a few weeks after two other heavy-handed actions by Chinese vessels near the Philippine coast.

    In late October, a Philippine supply vessel and a vessel from the Philippine Coast Guard were bumped, respectively, by a China Coast Guard vessel and a vessel belonging to China’s maritime militia. The incidents took place near the Second Thomas Shoal, in waters that both the Philippines and China consider their own. In 2016, the tribunal in charge of enforcing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) sided with Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal, but that hasn’t stopped Beijing from claiming it is the rightful owner and underlining this point through various maritime provocations.

    Indeed, for the past decade, there have been regular encounters between China and the Philippines in the desolate waters.

    In recent months, China has been particularly keen to demonstrate its presence around the Scarborough and Second Thomas shoals. It has rammed Philippine Coast Guard vessels and boats resupplying fishermen. It has used water cannons against Philippine vessels and tried to chase them away. On just one day in November, 38 Chinese vessels were circling the Second Thomas Shoal’s waters, according to The Associated Press.

    Snip.

    [Ray Powell, the director of Stanford University’s SeaLight group,said Beijing’s objective] is to discourage any attempts by nearby countries to follow the Philippines’ example in asserting their rights to waters that China has unilaterally declared to belong to Beijing. “China wants to communicate that it has jurisdiction in the South China Sea and gets to decide over activities there,” he explained.

    The aggression may be of the gray-zone kind—that is, not involving military violence—but it’s decidedly harmful, and not just to the Philippine and other vessels being targeted. “China’s harassment of civilian Philippine vessels carrying out humanitarian missions has a negative impact on shipping in the surrounding waters,” Amparo Pamela Fabe, a professor at the Philippines’ National Police College and a fellow of the U.S. Marine Corps’ Brute Krulak Center, told me. “It also heightens the geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.”

    Indeed, the harassment has so alarmed the U.S. Defense Department that the U.S. military is now making a point of showing its presence off the Philippine coast, including by sending aircraft to circle above altercations between Chinese and Philippine vessels. But in reality, there isn’t much the Pentagon can do to deter the vessels from the China Coast Guard or the maritime militia off the coast of the Philippines: The United States wouldn’t risk an armed conflict with China over the harassment of Philippine vessels.

    I’m pretty sure that China wouldn’t be nearly so confident of that if Donald Trump were still President…

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    Posted in Foreign Policy | 2 Comments »

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