Micky Kaus, the Thinking Conservative’s Liberal, has been suggesting that the traditional thinking that the economy must be good at least six months before an election for the President to have a chance is wrong. His contention is that the Feiler Faster Thesis, the idea that the Internet has made it possible for much rapider media cycles to change people’s minds about things more quickly, will save Obama’s bacon even if we only see notable economy recovery, say, three or four months out.
I think the Feiler Faster Thesis is correct in general, but is mistaken in this particular instance. (And let’s temporarily ignore that I don’t think any economic recovery is in the offing at all this year.)
The problem is that this recession has been too long and deep for the Feiler Faster Thesis to save Obama even if the economy does pick up a few months before the election. People’s feelings about the economy are deeply tied to their personal experience. The people they know who are unemployed, the prices they pay at the grocery store, the foreclosures and lingering FOR SALE signs on their own street, the business and plants closings in their own city all trump the news cycle. While the Feiler Faster Thesis may explain rapid opinion changes about Iraq or Lady Gaga, it can’t override people’s own insecurity. Nobody cares about brightening economic indicators when they can’t pay their own bills
Which is not to say some people won’t pick up on economic news more rapidly. I’m sure that stock traders and hedge fund managers are working on faster cycles than ever before. But voters, especially independent and undecided voters, are still far more attuned to their own economic anxiety than to media narratives about a “recovery summer” they can’t see with their own eyes. Consumer confidence is considered a lagging economic indicator, which makes it precisely the sort of thing immune to the Feiler Faster Thesis.
The only people who think the Feiler Faster Theory might save Obama’s bacon are liberals who want it to.
I’m well aware that politics is a blood sport. The “working for Communist China” smear was pretty weak sauce, but at least there was a tiny grain of truth there. But the amnesty smear was just made up out of whole cloth. Neither Cruz, nor the groups mentioned, ever supported illegal alien amnesty. David Dewhurst and Team Dewhurst were simply liars to push it. Now the MSM confirms what anyone paying attention already knew.
But to drive the point home even further, never mind Polifact, here’s the Sex Pistols (NSFW. Duh.):
How about a nice slice of EuroDoom to ease you into the weekend?
With all the post-primary news, the European Debt Crises news has been chugging along for a while now. let’s look at some, shall we?
Heh. “The Euro cannot be destroyed by any craft that we here possess. It was made in the fires of Frankfurt. Only there can it be unmade. It must be taken deep into the heart of the European Central Bank, and cast back into the fiery chasm from whence it came!”
If the Leftists win the next round of voting in Greece, they promise to cancel the EU-sponsored bail-out and re-nationalize banks and companies. Way to calm the markets, dude! Not to mention reenacting Clevon Little’s famous scene from Blazing Saddles. “Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn from no other.”
It’s a winner-take-all world. Countries that do well have to do a few things extremely well. Germany makes the world’s best machine tools, some of the best heavy engineering equipment, not to mention autos. German manufacturing dominates innumerable key niches. The Spanish don’t do anything well. They haven’t done anything well since the Spanish Empire outsourced its manufacturing to Flanders in the 16th century.
As a journalist told me yesterday, he worries whether the money in his pocket will be worth anything a year from now. Others worry about Germany’s increasingly negative image among recession-hit southern and eastern Europeans. Americans will understand this feeling well: you pay and pay to help others, only to have them turn on you in hatred and wrath, accusing you of horrible hidden motives and denouncing your selfishness.
Numerous nuggets of non-Senate race information and observation on Tuesday’s election:
Two years ago, Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones were both on the Railroad Commission. Sixteen months ago they were serious U.S. Senate candidates. Now each has missed the runoff for their respective down-ballot races, U.S. CD 25 and Texas SD 25, respectively. (Donna Campbell made the runoff with Jeff Wentworth for SD25.) Evidently the Railroad Commission is a poor stepping stone to higher or lower office. Or at least for the 25th District of anything…
Even Paul Burka has has wised-up to fake Dewhurst internal polls. “Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twenty times, shame on me. The Dewhurst campaign has made too many claims about why a Dewhurst victory was inevitable without backing them up. The only poll that matters is the one that will be taken on July 31.”
Speaking of polls, both PPP and UT/TT polls were in the ballpark for the Republican race, but horribly off for the Democratic side. Any ideas why?
Finally, the Obama Choom Gang story finally breaks through in the one medium the MSM can’t possibly ignore: wacky Taiwanese animation.
Again, the issue isn’t that our 44th President used to regularly get baked out of his gourd, the issue is why the MSM was unwilling to investigate and report such stories in 2008, and the hypocrisy of Obama carrying out a futile War on Drugs and imprisoning people for the same laws he used to habitually break.
Now put your hands down, because you’re all damn liars.
Yarbrough has no website, no Facebook page, no Twitter feed. (I looked. Repeatedly. Hell, I even looked on Bing, just to be sure, such is my dedication.) He might as well be Keyser Soze. And yet he’s in the runoff? Did they think they were voting for the guy from Sanford & Son?
Can anyone explain this to me? Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?
(One possibility: He’s the only Democratic candidate who bothered to fill out the Texas League of Women Voter’s Questionnaire.)
And Sean Hubbard, the guy who’s been running the longest, who stayed in the race when Ricardo Sanchez was The Anointed One, the one who was participating in debates and finally getting press as Sadler’s biggest challenger, came in a distant 4th with 16% of the vote. Ouch!
The most invisible man in the Texas senate race campaign, Democrat Grady Yarbrough, has no website, no Facebook page, and no Twitter feed. But that didn’t stop him from being endorsed by The Austin Villager (warning: 3MB PDF), a local Austin black newspaper. I would love to learn the editorial process by which they chose him over the other three Democratic candidates. Or even just how they chose him over Addie D. Allen…
After spending the bulk of my time on the Texas senate race, I’ve spent the last day or so trying to get a handle on some down-ballot races. So here’s who I’m voting for in contested races, starting at the top and providing (very) brief explanations. Hopefully this will be of use to other conservative Republican voters looking for information at the last minute. (Hey, people are busy!)
United State Representative, District 31: Incumbent John Carter. Though not perfect (he was late getting on the anti-SOPA bandwagon), I like Rep. Carter personally, and he’s generally been a very good (and very conservative) Representative.
Railroad Commissioner: I’m leaning toward Roland Sledge, who’s solidly conservative, if a bit goofy. Former Rep. Warren Chisum is also a solid choice. I don’t trust Christi Craddick, who seems to be running on her father’s reputation.
Railroad Commissioner, Unexpired Term: Possibly the toughest race to pick, as both incumbent Barry Smitherman and Greg Parker strike me as very solid conservative choices, and each has picked up some Tea Party endorsements. I lean slightly toward Smitherman based on his impressive array of endorsements.
Texas Supreme Court Place 2: Incumbent Don Willett, a solid conservative with solid endorsements.
Texas Supreme Court Place 2: Incumbent David Medina, endorsed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform.
State Board of Education, District 10: Jeff Fleece, based on endorsements from Holly Hansen and YCT.
Williamson County District Attorney: John Bradley. The fact that Jana Duty has made so much hay from one trial makes me quite suspicious of her. Once again, Holly Hansen provides needed insight on the race here, here, and here.
Williamson County Tax Assessor Collector: Incumbent Deborah M. Hunt. When your opponent can’t be bothered to put up more than a Facebook page…
Williamson County Sherrif: Incumbent James R. Wilson, who has done a good job. His opponent sounds like Grandpa Simpson yelling at a cloud…
425th District Judge: Incumbent Mark Silverstone, based on Rick Perry’s endorsement.
Williamson County Commissioner Precinct 1: Incumbent Lisa Birkman, for reasons outlined here. Holly Hansen also provides compelling arguments why you should favor Birkman over Seitsinger here, and here.
