Quick Impressions: Texas Twenty-First U.S. Congressional District Race

February 28th, 2018

The Twenty-First U.S. Congressional District, the seat held by retiring Republican Lamar Smith, runs from Austin to San Antonio, encompassing much of the western Hill Country. It’s heavily Republican and largely white, though with a significant Hispanic population.

There are no fewer than 13 Republicans candidates for this seat, including a former U.S. Representatives, Ted Cruz’s former chief-of-staff, a State Rep, two previous candidates, and not one but two candidates who are ex-CIA. Also worth noting: The candidate who has the raised the most money so far is a Democrat.

Republican

  • Ivan A. Andarza: Austin lawyer and a former or current member of several state boards. That suggests and ability to self-fund that might get him into the runoff…in another race. But I don’t see him making headway in this packed race.
  • Eric Burkhart: Has an interesting history as an ex-CIA agent. But I can’t tell his current job, and thus don’t see an ability to self-fund.
  • Former U.S. Congressman Francisco “Quico” Canseco: Unseated Ciro Rodriguez for the U.S. 23rd congressional district in the Republican wave year of 2010, and who was unseated in turn in 2012 by Pete Gallego in 2012. (Disclaimer: I donated money to Canseco in 2010, because I perceived (correctly) that he had a good chance to knock off a Democratic incumbent.) However, Canseco’s fundraising doesn’t even show up in the latest report, suggesting he’ll struggle mightily to make the runoff, name recognition or not.
  • Mauro Garza: Former Director of Grants and Contracts at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research. Nothing about his profile or website suggests he’ll be a serious contender.
  • Foster Hagen: Has a barely-used Facebook page, and his website is missing. So I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest he’s not going to be a factor…
  • Texas State Rep. Jason Isaac: Normally being a State Rep at least gives you a good shot to get into the runoff, but probably not here. He’s got some good endorsements (including Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian), but nothing the level of Chip Roy’s endorsements. Has raised $203,050, third among Republicans. A chance to make the runoffs, but it appears to be an uphill struggle right now.
  • Ryan Krause: Not seeing any indication he’ll be a competitive candidate.
  • Matt McCall: Already run twice for this seat and got clobbered by Lamar Smith both times. Has raised $168,606, which is not trivial, but I don’t think the third time is the charm for him.
  • Susan Narvaiz: Formerly lost to Lloyd Doggett in the U.S. District 35 race. Lagging in fundraising, I don’t see her making any headway in this race.
  • William Negley: Another former CIA member, a former member of Kay Baily Hurtchison’s staff, and backed by deep-pocketed businessman Red McCombs, which explains how Negley raked in $307,127, second only to Chip Roy. A serious contender to make the runoff with Chip Roy.
  • Al Poteet: A veteran and former CEO of Humana Veterans Healthcare Service. Nice hat, but he’s at the very bottom of fundraising for the race.
  • Autry Pruitt is a black media commentator. Maybe he’s flown below my radar, but seeing that his fundraising doesn’t even register, probably not.
  • Chip Roy: Ted Cruz’s former chief of staff, who has been endorsed by both Cruz and Rick Perry, has raised $372,574 (the most of any Republican candidate), and the odds-on favorite in the race. It’s possibly that he wins without a runoff, but with so many candidates in the race that seems unlikely.
  • Jenifer Sarver: Former Kay Bailey Hutchison staffer who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Enough said…
  • Robert Stovall: Chairman of the Republican Party for Bexar County. Not enough money raised to compete with the heavyweights here.
  • Samuel Temple. Pro-illegal alien Republican who promises to be “data driven.” Someone needs to tell him that Technocracy peaked in the 1930s…
  • Peggy Wardlaw: Want to do YouTube videos of your positions in addition to stating them on your website? Fine. Want to do YouTube videos of your positions instead of stating positions on your website? Not fine.
  • Anthony White: Former Marine Colonel. I couldn’t find a webpage, but his Twitter feed has 24 followers…
  • Democrats

  • Derrick Crowe: Former Nancy Pelosi staffer. Has a bunch of endorsements. Has raised $119,392, or less than one-sixth what Joseph Kopser has. A solid chance to make the runoff, but it may be hard for him to overcome Kopser’s fundraising muscle.
  • Joseph Kopser: At $772,335, he’s raised twice as much as anyone in the race, Republican or Democrat. (Notable donors include game designer Richard Garriott, plus lots of lawyers and CEOs in New York, San Antonio, New York City and Washington, D.C. “Kopser is a U.S. Army veteran and has worked in private industry. Leading up to the 2018 primary election, he was serving as president of the advisory and analytics firm Grayline as well as a member of the Defense Council of the Truman National Security Project. His other professional experience includes serving as the director of Texas Lyceum, a member of the board of directors of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, and the chairman and co-founder of Bunker Labs Austin. Kopser’s military experience includes serving as the department chair and professor of leadership and strategy at Texas Army ROTC and as the special assistant to the Army chief of staff. Kopser spent several years deployed in Iraq. He graduated from Harvard University with his M.P.A. and from the United States Military Academy at West Point with his bachelor’s in aerospace engineering.”
  • Elliott McFadden: He may have only raised 1/7th what Kopser has, but he’s been endorsed by The Daily Texan and The Austin Chronicle! Yeah, he’s toast.
  • Mary Wilson: Her about page talks about her love of math. Thanks for playing!
  • Kopser probably has better chance than Roy of avoiding a runoff, just based on the sheer size of the Republican field. Otherwise, expect a Roy/Negley runoff among Republicans, and Kopser/Crowe runoff for Democrats.

    Twitter Decides You Shouldn’t Be Able To Type www.FireScottIsrael.com

    February 27th, 2018

    In the latest in unreasonable censorship, Twitter has decided that it won’t allow you to type www.FireScottIsrael.com in a tweet.

    Try to, and you get a message like this:

    If you find a link in one of the messages from before they started censoring this, you get this message:

    The only thing “unsafe” about this link is that it presents non-liberal-approved thought.

    So why is Twitter so desperate to protect the reputation of one incompetent Florida sheriff whose feckless ways helped cause the deaths of 17 people?

    Oh, yeah. That’s why.

    Not only does Sheriff Israel pal around with high profile Democrats, he’s the tip of the spear on their pushing their latest attempt at gun control (read: total civilian disarmament), and trivia like incompetence and cowardice can’t be allowed to stand in the way of what Democrats have delusionally decided is their signature issue of 2018 (just like they decided that #BlackLivesMatter was the most sacred of all causes in 2016). As I mentioned before, this is likely to backfire on them rather badly…

    Islamic State Launches Several Attacks Around Kirkuk

    February 26th, 2018

    Like Wesley in The Princess Bride, the Islamic State is just mostly dead, not dead dead. This was driven home by several recent attacks near Kirkuk, which was officially liberated from the Islamic State by Kurdish forces since 2014, and has been held by the regular Iraqi Army and Shia militias since 2017.

  • A suicide attacker blew up himself near the local headquarters of al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces), a pro-government, mostly-Shia militia coalition, in central Kirkuk.
  • The Islamic State also attacked a convoy of pro-government militia, reportedly killing 27 of them.
  • Islamic State fighters also attacked a nearby oil field:

    Islamic State (IS) extremists on Saturday launched an attack on an oil field in Kirkuk Province, killing at least two police officers.

    A security source from Kirkuk said a group of IS militants attacked the Khabaza oil field in the disputed province, killing at least two police officers and wounding another one.

    The security source added that police reinforcements were sent to the site of the attack but did not reveal whether any of the oil wells were also targeted by the militant group.

    According to Iraq-based al-Ghad Press, the extremists attacked a post guarded by police at the Khabaza oil field’s number 43 well

  • The Islamic State is too fanatical to merely melt away quietly, and counterinsurgency operations are by their very nature grinding, long-running affairs, and I have no confidence that the Iraqi government and their pet Shia militias are up to the job absent additional U.S. assistance and guidance.

    Pat Condell’s YouTube Video About YouTube Censoring His YouTube Video About YouTube Censoring Videos

    February 25th, 2018

    Here’s a mirror of a Pat Condell video that so hit home at Google they yanked it after a couple of hours:

    This video is for all you feminists who work in social media, especially the ones at YouTube. But first I’d like to talk briefly, if I may, about censorship. Because it’s amazing to me how quickly YouTube went from “broadcast yourself” to “stifle yourself or be terminated.” It seems there’s no longer any pretense that the tolerance and diversity crowd have any tolerance for diversity of opinion, and now they’re openly censoring political views they disapprove of. It’s happening so often and to so many people that the words “YouTube” and “censorship” now go together like “Islamic” and “terrorism,” or “migrant” and “rape,” or “Marxist” and “dictatorship.”

    Also:

    “The people who work at YouTube don’t have any problem with violence against women as long as it’s Islamic.”

    He goes on to talk about YouTube’s persistent censoring of videos about the widespread epidemic of rapes carried out by Islamic men across Europe, including a video from Poland’s government.

    He also calls men who work at Google “dickless wonders.” That might have done it.

    And here’s Condell’s YouTube video about YouTube censoring his YouTube video about YouTube censoring videos.

    Inter-Blue Fratricide for Texas 7th U.S. Congressional District

    February 24th, 2018

    I haven’t done a roundup on the Texas 7th U.S. Congressional District race because Republican incumbent John Culberson is not retiring, and he won his two most recent races by 56.2% to 43.8% in 2016, and 63.3% to 34.5% in 2014. That’s not exactly swing district territory, but Clinton carried the district in 2016.

    Because of that, Democrats seem to be taking a real run at the seat with four different Democrats pulling in between half a million and a million in fundraising for the race. That’s some pretty serious cheese.

    Even more surprising: One of the Democratic candidates is Laura Moser, a pro-abortion woman and part of #TheResistance, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s list have both come out hard in the race.

    Against Moser:

    EMILY’s List is dumping big money into an upcoming Democratic primary in Texas’s 7th Congressional District, pitting the women’s group against a pro-choice woman who was, in the months after the election of Donald Trump, a face of the resistance.

    Laura Moser, as creator of the popular text-messaging program Daily Action, gave hundreds of thousands of despondent progressives a single political action to take each day. Her project was emblematic of the new energy forming around the movement against Trump, led primarily by women and often by moms. (Moser is both.)

    It was those types of activists EMILY’s List spent 2017 encouraging to make first-time bids for office. But that doesn’t mean EMILY’s List will get behind them. Also running is Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, a corporate lawyer who is backed by Houston mega-donor Sherry Merfish. EMILY’s List endorsed her in November.

    The 7th District includes parts of Houston and its wealthy western suburbs, and Merfish and her husband, Gerald Merfish, are among the city’s leading philanthropists. Gerald Merfish owns and runs a steel pipe company in the oil-rich region and Sherry Merfish, who worked for decades for EMILY’s List, is a major donor to the Democratic Party and to EMILY’s List.

    Actor Alyssa Milano, another face of the Trump resistance, is backing Moser, and plans to drive voters to the polls as a campaign volunteer. “I like EMILY’s List a lot but I feel like they missed the boat on this one,” Milano told The Intercept. “Laura is a proud progressive Democrat and her values are the values of the majority of the country, which is evident by the success of her grassroots campaign and her broad base of support.”

    The Houston district is one of scores where crosscurrents of the Democratic Party are colliding. Democrats, who in the past have had difficulty fielding a single credible candidate even in winnable districts, have at least four serious contenders in the race to replace Republican John Culberson. Moser, who has more than 10,000 donors — more than 90 percent of whom are small givers — and cancer researcher Jason Westin make up the progressive flank, while Fletcher and Alex Triantaphyllis are running more moderate campaigns. Triantaphyllis, a former Goldman Sachs analyst who doesn’t live in the district, has the backing of some establishment elements of the party.

    “Alex T has been open about being the chosen candidate of the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee],” said Daniel Cohen, president of Indivisible Houston, who is not endorsing any particular candidate.

    For “more moderate” and “establishment” read “Clinton-approved.”

    Indeed, until 2017, Moser was living in Washington, where she worked as a writer, and only recently relocated back home to Houston. Her husband, Arun Chaudhary, a partner at Revolution Messaging, which did media and email work for the presidential campaign of Bernie Sanders, hasn’t gotten around to updating his bio, which still suggests that he “lives in Washington, D.C., with his wife, son and daughter.”

    And that seems to be the real reason the Democratic establishment has come down on her in the primary like a ton of bricks:

    Indeed, the Democratic Party seems more than willing to block and purge candidates that don’t toe the line.

    It seems it doesn’t matter how pure your progressive credentials or positions are, if you’re the wrong kind of people. Those not already approved by mega-donors and the Clinton machine need not apply…

    LinkSwarm for February 23, 2018

    February 23rd, 2018

    Another week in which I had zero free time! Enjoy a LinkSwarm, and hopefully I’ll have something a little more substantial next week.

  • “Officials Identify More Rotherham Victims, Number Up to 1,510.”
  • Nancy Pelosi wants you to know that keeping more of your own paycheck is “unpatriotic.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Speaking of Pelosi, just how did she triple her net worth during the financial crisis?
  • “President Donald Trump’s immigration hard-liners proved [last] Thursday it is possible to win even when the outcome of a battle is, on paper, a draw.”
  • On a per-capita basis, the United States doesn’t even rank in the top 10 of mass shooting fatalities.
  • “Florida Shooting Survivor Claims CNN Denied His Questions on School Safety, Provided Scripted Questions.” CNN: Potemkin Village media.
  • The experience of Israel proves that the NRA is right on school shootings.
  • “Republicans now sympathize with Israel (as opposed to the Palestinians) by a whopping 52-point margin over Democrats—79 percent to 27 percent—the greatest spread between the two parties in the last 40 years. Republicans have never been more favorably disposed toward Israel, while for Democrats, the opposite holds true.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Remember: When a powerful female liberal Democratic politician sleeps with a married subordinate, it’s different. Because feminism. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Also:

    Within months of taking office, Mayor Megan Barry recommended the adult daughter of the head of her security detail — the man with whom she later admitted to having an affair — be hired for a job in the city’s legal department.

    The daughter got the job.

    The position as an entry-level city attorney was the first newly created job in Nashville’s legal department in two years. It was not part of the existing budget. Barry approved the new job opening. No other candidate was considered.

  • “Former Secretary of State Colin Powell said too many young people do not qualify for military service due in part to obesity and criminal records,” and being too stupid to pass the ASVAB. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Another way in which President Donald Trump is like other recent Republican Presidents: ignoring deficits.
  • Austin experiences a significant uptick in violent crime since 2013.
  • Vox lays off 50 people. I didn’t know they even had 50 people to lay off…
  • Payoffs to college basketball players are widespread.
  • School enrollment at Evergreen State College drops 18.5%. How’s that “All Social Justice Warrior, all the time” format working out for you?
  • Billy Graham, RIP.
  • Boston Dynamics teaches robot to fight back against humans. Joke that follows should be: A.)”, find Sarah Conner,” B.) “What could possibly go wrong?”, or C.) “I for one welcome our new robot overlords!”
  • UK Kentucky Fried Chickens running out of chicken. Verily the endtimes are upon us…
  • Democrat State Sen. Carlos Uresti Found Guilty

    February 22nd, 2018

    In brief:

    Texas state Sen. Carlos Uresti and co-defendant Gary Cain were found guilty on all charges in San Antonio federal court today in a criminal fraud trial that has stunned the city and state capitol.

    It took the 12 jurors roughly 11 hours over three days to reach a verdict. Both Uresti and Cain are allowed to remain free on bond until sentencing, which was set for June 25.

    Gun-Grabbing Democrats Get High On Their Own Supply Again

    February 22nd, 2018

    Having learned nothing from the failure of polling in 2016, Democrats are once again mistaking their inordinate domination of major news outlets with a groundswell of support for gun control.

    With various polls and liberal-packed CNN town halls theoretically showing gun control to display an overwhelming popularity that it’s never evidenced at the ballot box, Democrats are poised to make the same mistake they have every previous time this topic came up: They’re getting high on their own supply.

    Let’s remember what senate seats are up for reelection in 2018:

    Which of those Republican seats do you think are going to be enthused for gun bans? Tennessee? Mississippi? Texas?

    Conversely, which Democrat-held senate seats in states Trump won are more likely to remain blue thanks to gun control? Montana? North Dakota? Missouri? Michigan?

    I’m sure Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the state that gave all of 26% of it’s vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is just dying to run on gun control.

    Months after the click-bait articles and breathless “blood on your hands” accusations have faded, gun owners will be going to the polls, and they’ll remember the politicians who promised to disarm them if ever given the chance…

    Feminists: Enjoy Your Cats

    February 21st, 2018

    Evidently it’s National Drink Wine With Your Cats Week. (Warning: Autoplay video.)

    Or, as feminists call it: Wednesday.

    We have pictures! Here’s the typical feminist just starting National Drink Wine With Your Cats Week:

    And here’s the typical feminist at the end of that week:

    Enjoy the company of your cats, feminists! You’ve earned it!

    Greg Gutfeld Reviews the Winter Olympics

    February 20th, 2018

    Since I didn’t comment on the “Let’s tongue North Korea’s brutal dictator’s brutal sister” incident, here’s Greg Gutfeld doing it for me: