Greece and the EU Compromise to…Kick The Can Further Down the Road

July 10th, 2015

It looks like we have an actual, honest-to-God compromise, in that Greece, in exchange for not having their economy collapse and descend into anarchy and cannibalism, will pretend to implement real reforms, while the Troika, in exchange for those promises, and not being blamed for the impending global recession, will give Greece still more loans, write down some previous loans, and pretend this actually fixes the problem.

So expect to see another round of this dance in six months to a year.

Germany caved on debt relief. Greece?

A cursory look at the “new” Greek proposal to creditors suggests PM Alexis Tsipras may have sold out the referendum “no” vote in a final, desperate attempt to avert an economic catastrophe and the collapse of the country’s banks which will be cut off from ELA as of Monday morning in the event Brussels and Athens do not come to terms over the weekend.

And indeed, the austerity outlined in the latest proposal is more severe than the version voters rejected last Sunday. Among the proposals evidently agreed to: No retirement until age 67 or 40 years of paying into the system. Caveat: Pension reforms don’t actually kick in until October, so they’re still kicking the can down the road on that as well.

Also: “Greece will succeed in transferring bonds currently held by the ECB to the European Stability Mechanism.” If the ESM is truly the euro’s firewall, then they’re about to get an infusion of crappy Communist-era Soviet concrete…

Other Greek crisis tidbits:

  • Earlier Greece had floated their totally serious compromise proposal that didn’t cut any pensions.
  • Faced with impending national bankruptcy, Greece’s ruing left-wing Syriza Party concentrates on the essentials: investigating reporters who opposed them. (Hat tip: National Review.)
  • People in Latvia and Lithuania sneer at spendthrift Greece.
  • Greece demonstrates 150 years of socialist failure.
  • Greek event timelines.
  • Greece probably wouldn’t do as well after a Grexit as Argentina did after their default.
  • The sneaky return of Drachmas? Of course this was before the latest agreement. But wouldn’t it be hilarious if Greece got one final big bailout, then turned around and pulled off a Grexit anyway?
  • UKIP head Nigel Farge had some advice earlier in the week:

    Not in 100% agreement, but there’s a lot of bracing truth in there. But the problem, of course, is that Tsipras, as all Socialists do, does indeed want to have his cake and eat it too…

  • What It’s Like To Be an Honest Taxpayer in Greece

    July 10th, 2015

    I came across this comment from a Slashdot thread on programmers leaving Greece (usual online source caveats apply), and thought it was meaty enough to be worth excerpting and highlighting on its own:

    Let me tell you what happens when you’re 100% legal and declare everything up to the last penny you get as a software developer. In 2012 I had 100,000 Euros income paid 86,000 Euros spent on taxes (income tax with surprisingly different brackets than last year, “temporary” property tax, “temporary special contribution” 4% on the total turnover, mandatory social security, 55% of your current income tax as downpayment for next year). The year before I made 74,000 Euros and paid “only” 50,000 or thereabouts. In return I got: no schools, no roads, no pension, more taxes, more family members depending on me to live. The more you work the less you make (unless you have an ever-shrinking business). Crazy? That’s the Greek tax brackets for you.

    Meanwhile: I have to pay for my own hospital plan because in case I get sick I have to notify the public insurance carrier 15 days in advance of emergency surgery (no kidding!) or 3-4 months before booking an appointment with a doctor. I have to get an additional, expensive pension plan on top of the 350 Euros per month I am currently paying as mandatory social security because there will be no money when I’m 67 years old or have worked 40+ years to get the minimum pension of 700 Euros (nominal; actual payment after taxes and mandatory social security is around 480 Euros). I also need to set aside money to get the kids I’m planning on having to a private school because there are no teachers (not even substitutes) half of the time in the public schools.

    If you are wondering why people tax evade you have to first ask the questions: 1. how much does the state take in taxes and 2. what does the state offer for the money it takes from its citizens? If the answers are “most of your money” and “not that much at all” respectively it doesn’t take a genius to see why you get an endemic tax evasion for free.

    Anyway. After three years of battling the system I gave up and moved away. My last tax filing in Greece was 2014 for my income in 2013. I am owed a 13,000 Euro tax return since August 10th, 2014. Of course it’s NOT credited. And we’re talking about money I have paid as a tax downpayment to the state since August 2013. They hold my money hostage for 2 years and they won’t give it to me. Also, don’t make the mistake of asking whether there’s an interest rate for those two years. Don’t be silly. There’s not! Adding insult to injury I’m still a Greek tax citizen which means I get to pay taxes for the dividends I’m paid from my company abroad. Don’t be ridiculous, of course they are NOT offset by the money the Greek state owes me! I have so far paid another 40+ thousand Euro taxes in these two years where the Greek state owes me the 13,000 Euro tax return.

    I understand all this sounds alien to you. Why so much taxation, why no services in return, why the state isn’t punctual in paying back. Beats me, brothers and sisters. I have concluded that one must be outright insane to try and do business if they’re born in Greece.

    And here you have the endpoint of the cradle-to-grave welfare state: benefits are theoretically generous for those on the dole (though good luck navigating the maze of inefficient, corrupt bureaucracy to collect them), while taxes are prohibitively high for those actually work for a living.

    This is why implementing fake austerity through higher taxes never works: It drives out the productive, the social compact is irreparably broken, and those living off the state’s largess feel no qualms about wringing every last possible penny from it.

    Texas vs. California Update for July 9, 2015

    July 9th, 2015

    Time for another Texas vs. California update!

  • “Greece, Puerto Rico show California’s potential future.” (Hat tip: Pension Tsunami.)
  • What’s remarkable (or not, depending on your worldview) about the huge disparity in poverty rates between California and Texas is that the states are diametrically opposed in their taxing, spending, and regulatory policies. California, featuring America’s highest marginal income-tax rate, ranks as the fourth-most taxed state in the nation, according to the Tax Foundation, while no-income-tax Texas came in at forty-seventh. In a broader survey of economic freedom that includes labor law and regulation, Canada’s Fraser Institute rated Texas and South Dakota as tied for first with California lagging far behind at forty-third, just ahead of New Jersey at forty-fourth.

  • Yet another fiscal ranking of the states once again puts Texas well ahead of California, though not as much as in some other rankings. Texas ranks 19th, while California ranks 44th. In most rankings, Texas is higher and California is lower…
  • California’s rural poor are among those hit hardest by the drought.
  • Richmond may be the next California city to go bankrupt. (Hat tip: The Ace of Spades Doom Roundup.
  • California sanctuary cities are in the spotlight due to an illegal alien committing a high-profile murder.
  • Strike averted for Santa Clara nurses making an average of $148,000. (Hat tip: Pension Tsunami.)
  • Ed Driscoll and wife Nina Yablok are moving to Texas. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Did Sacramento’s Democratic Mayor Kevin Johnson use his aides and volunteers to cement a coup in the National Conference of Black Mayors? And if so, why? What’s his angle?
  • China’s Stock Market Meltdown Continues, NYSE Offline

    July 8th, 2015

    Maybe those are connected, maybe not.

    As Zero Hedge has been reporting for weeks, China’s stock market continues to slid with no end in sight, despite such measures as making it illegal for some people to sell stocks.

    In a possibly unrelated story, trading on the New York Stock Exchange has been suspended, supposedly due to a computer glitch. Maybe that’s true, maybe not.

    How does it feel to live in interesting times?

    Greece Starts Reaping the Fruits of Its Choices

    July 8th, 2015

    The problem with holding a gun to your own head is, sooner or later, someone is going to call your bluff.

    EU leaders have given Greece until Sunday to “Reach a new bailout agreement with its creditors” or “face bankruptcy and expulsion from the euro currency system.”

    The European Central Bank also hiked Greek ELA Haircuts. Translation: Hope you enjoy the scent of burning bridges, Greece, because now your banking system is even more screwed than before the referendum. (Note: Zero Hedge is down as of this posting. Maybe China got tired of him exposing their financial house of cards…)

    And Greece’s leftist PM Alexis Tsipras is still playing his old tricks. “Screw all of you! You suck! Oh, and here’s a new proposal for a bailout that doesn’t meet any of your conditions! Please give us money! Pretty please! Screw all of you!”

    “The Greek people spent part of the weekend in the streets celebrating their status as international deadbeat. They spent the rest of the weekend hoarding food, fuel, and medicine in preparation for the manmade disaster they have inflicted upon themselves.”

    Also: “The Greeks may have burned their bridge to Europe, but the Germans are roasting marshmallows over the flames.”

    Further:

    The presence of Greece in the Eurozone is the result of a lie: The Greeks pretended to get their deficits and debt under control, and the Europeans pretended to believe them. That was the first act. In the second act, after the advent of the current crisis, the Greeks pretended to enact fiscal reforms, and the Europeans pretended to believe them. Political logic is, not coincidentally, lawyer logic — which is to say, it substitutes consensus for reality. If enough people (jurors, voters) are convinced that your position is the correct one, then you “win.” Maybe the election turns out your way, as with Tsipras and the referendum. Maybe political consensus prevents your opponents from enacting their favored policies, just as conservatives have for decades been frustrated in their efforts to enact entitlement reform by cheap and dishonest images of grandmothers being pushed over cliffs. Maybe O. J. Simpson walks.

    Mark Steyn reiterates the fundamental problem:

    Since Obama took office, it’s been fashionable to quote Mrs. Thatcher’s great line: “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.” But we’re way beyond that. That’s a droll quip when you’re on mid-20th-century European fertility rates, but we’ve advanced to the next stage: We’ve run out of other people, period. Hyper-rationalist technocrats introduced at remarkable speed a range of transformative innovations — welfare, feminism, mass college education, abortion — whose cumulative effect a few decades on is that the developed world has developed to breaking point: Not enough people do not enough work for not enough of their lives. In the course of so doing, they have fewer children later. And the few they do have leave childhood ever later — Obamacare’s much heralded “right” for a 26-year old to remain on his parents’ health insurance being merely a belated attempt to catch up with the Europeans, and one sure to be bid up further.

    A society of 25-year-old “children” whiling away the years till early middle age in desultory pseudo-education has no desire to fund its prolonged adolescence by any kind of physical labor, so huge numbers of unskilled Third World immigrants from the swollen favelas of Latin America or (in Europe) the shanty megalopolises of the Muslim world are imported to cook, clean, wash, build, do. On the Continent, the shifting rationale for mass immigration may not illuminate much about the immigrants but it certainly tells you something about the natives: Originally, European leaders said, we needed immigrants to work in the mills and factories. But the mills and factories closed. So the new rationale was that we needed young immigrants to keep the welfare state solvent. But in Germany the Turks retire even younger than the Krauts do, and in France 65 percent of imams are on the dole. So the surviving rationale is that a dependence on mass immigration is not a structural flaw but a sign of moral virtue. The evolving justification for post-war immigration policy — from manufacturing to welfare to moral narcissism — is itself a perfect shorthand for Western decay.

    So welfare entitlement states create a sense of entitlement. Who knew?

    “The European Union is dying before our eyes.” So there is an upside to the Greek crisis…

    LinkSwarm for July 7, 2015

    July 7th, 2015

    It looks like the the riots in Athens aren’t quite ready to start yet, so let’s do a little LinkSwarm:

  • Nixon drunk is better than Obama sober.
  • Boko Haram/Islamic state burns 32 Christian churches in Nigeria. (Hat tip: Jihad Watch.)
  • Russians miss good cheese. Well, maybe they should avoid supporting dictators who invade other countries… (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
  • China bans pension funds from selling stocks? That can’t possibly end well…
  • Rick Perry talks about how rich liberal elites are screwing minorities. “The left has to race-bait not just for ideological reasons, but for sheer self-preservation.”
  • Ex-CNN anchor’s husband kills armed felon who opened fire on them. “If you don’t want to carry please don’t. Then, shut the fuck up about it. Make your own decisions.”
  • Wait, you mean a Clinton is a money-grubbing influence peddler? What are the odds?
  • Dear Burning Man attendees: Fork over $1 million for Uncle Sam to add air conditioning to your anarchy. (Hat tip: Moe Lane.)
  • Thanks to Bill De Blasio’s magic, crime is up in New York City again. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Today is the tenth anniversary of the 7/7 attack in London. So how many articles you can find that bend over backwards to avoid mentioning the words “Muslim,” “Islam” or “Jihad.”
  • Even Donald Trump deserves defense from the “outragists.”
  • Paedophiles of Wikipedia.
  • Greek Voters to Europe: Screw Your Objective Reality!

    July 6th, 2015

    Greek voters have voted no on agreeing to austerity measures for additional bailouts. Since Greece is broke without additional bailouts, times in Greece are about to get very interesting indeed.

    Also, Greece’s finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has resigned.

    Germany says they’re done talking, and the European Commission says that the previous bailout offer is now off the table.

    A member of the European Central Bank’s governing council says “Greek debt held by the European Central Bank can’t be restructured as doing so would contravene the eurozone’s founding treaties.”

    And if Greece won’t be forced to pay its debts, voters in Spain, Portugal and Italy will start to wonder why they should pay theirs.

    But without additional loans, things in Greece are going to get very bad indeed. How bad? Greek banks are drafting plans to confiscate 30% of bank deposits over €8,000. Greece’s middle class has spent they last decade enjoying spending other people’s money, only to wake up and find that they are now Other People.

    Ding Dong, the ExIm Bank is Dead!

    July 3rd, 2015

    One bit of good news this week: The charter for one of crony capitalism’s favorite boondoggles, the Export/Import Bank, expired at Midnight June 30.

    Hopefully it will stay dead after congress returns from recess, despite attempts to revive it.

    If you can’t kill corporate welfare giveaways to Fortune 100 companies, what can you cut?

    Leland Yee Pleads Guilty To One Count of Racketeering

    July 2nd, 2015

    As part of a plea agreement, former California Democratic state senator Leland Yee plead guilty to one count of racketeering, as did three other co-defendants. Yee, in case you don’t remember, was charged with being involved in a wide web of corruption, including gun running (a special irony for a politician known for supporting gun control), murder for hire schemes, drugs, extortion, and campaign finance law violations.

    If he’s only pleading guilty to one charge, my guess would be that Yee is going to flip and testify on Raymond “Shrimp Boy” Chow and other defendants in the sprawling case. However, the actual plea agreement ((via Dwight via Popehat) evidently doesn’t specify cooperation against Chow or other defendants.

    It’s great they’re getting Yee to plead, but since Yee (being a state senator) was the “big fish” and given the lengthy list of original charges, the fact they’re only getting him to cop to one count suggests the case may have had some shaky planks. (Maybe an unreliable witness?) Or that there was so much more they could nail Chow on that they didn’t want to keep spending so much time on Yee.

    Or that political cronies somehow managed to swing him a soft deal…

    Stop Me If You’ve Heard This One Before…

    July 1st, 2015

    Greece’s leftwing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras wants more negotiations. Because, you know, Europe just hasn’t had enough of those over Greek debt.

    Mr. Tsipras said Greece was “prepared to accept” a deal set out publicly over the weekend by the creditors, with small modifications to some of the central points of contention: pension cuts and tax increases.

    In other words: Groundhog Day on the Aegean. Yet again.

    More Greek crisis links:

  • “Socialism is a one-way ticket to misery and failure.” Also: “The Greeks are simply the vanguard in a long line of nations who have buried themselves under mountains of unpayable debt.”
  • Greece: “We’re suffering so hard!” Poorer countries in Europe: “Suck it up, you proliferate spendthrifts!”
  • Possible post-referendum timelines in Greece. I hope you like flow charts…