A Perfect Storm Of Transportation Disaster?

October 20th, 2022

Thanks to the SuperGenius policies of the Biden Administration (plus a touch of bad weather), all three of the primary methods by which goods are transported around the nation are under near-term threat:

  • Rail: Railroad ship a huge percentage of bulk commodities (wheat, coal, etc.), and provide the backbone of U.S. agricultural and industrial transport. But railroads are under threat of disruption due to union labor difficulties the Biden Administration has been unable to resolve.

    A union representing about 12,000 rail workers on Monday voted down a tentative contract that was brokered by the White House last month ahead of a possible rail strike.

    This vote will force the two sides back to the negotiating table and creates the possibility of a nationwide strike. The potential work stoppage could paralyze the nation’s supply chain and transportation rail service later this fall as the U.S. enters peak holiday season.

    Four unions have ratified contracts based on the agreement brokered by the White House, while seven have votes pending on the deal. The eleven unions represent about 115,000 rail workers.

    The two largest rail unions — the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers Trainmen, or BLET, and the SMART Transportation Division, or SMART-TD, which make up roughly half of all rail workers — are set to finish voting in the middle of next month.

    The Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division of the Teamsters, or BMWED, rejected the tentative contract due to frustration with compensation and working conditions, particularly a lack of paid sick days, BMWED President Tony Cardell said in a statement on Monday.

    The Biden proposal and was widely viewed as a cynical way to delay any rail strike until after midterm elections. That means that most of the wheat harvest will be in, but most corn will still need to be transported. And corn is the largest agricultural commodity shipped by rail.

  • Long-Haul Trucking. Well, if you can’t ship via rail, at least you can ship in an 18-wheeler, right? The problem is that the overwhelming majority of 18-wheelers use diesel, and diesel is in short supply.

    The crisis gripping the US diesel market is getting out of hand, as demand is surging while supplies remain at the lowest seasonal level for this time of year ever, according to government data released Wednesday.

    According to the EIA, the US now has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008; and while inventories are record low, the four-week rolling average of distillates supplied – a proxy for demand – rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007.

    In short, record low supply (courtesy of stifling regulations that have led to a historic shortage of refining capacity) meet record high demand. What comes next is, well, ugly (while weekly demand dipped slightly in the latest week, it’s still at highest point in two years amid higher trucking, farming and heating use).

    The shortage of the fuel used for heating and trucking and – generally speaking – to keep commerce and freight running, has become a key worry for the Biden administration heading into winter, perhaps even bigger than the price of gas heading into the midterms (well, not really). As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas writes, “such low levels are alarming because diesel is the workhorse of the global economy. It powers trucks and vans, excavators, freight trains and ships. A shortage would mean higher costs for everything from trucking to farming to construction.”

    National Economic Council Director Brian Deese told Bloomberg TV Wednesday that that diesel inventories are “unacceptably low” and “all options are on the table” to build supplies and reduce retail prices.

    But while the White House claims to be so very concerned about the coming diesel crisis, it is doing absolutely nothing besides draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production.

    The historic diesel crunch comes just weeks ahead of the midterm elections and will almost certainly drive up prices for consumers who already view inflation and the economy as a top voting issue. Retail prices have been steadily climbing for more than two weeks. At $5.324 a gallon, they’re 50% higher than this time last year, according to AAA data.

    For those who might naively suggest “Well, oil refineries should just produce more diesel and less gasoline,” it doesn’t work that way. Though they sit side-by-side in gas pumps, the two fuels come from different points in the fractional distillation column, with Naphtha and Kerosene between them. You can’t just turn a knob to make more of one and less of the other.

    The diesel shortage is a direct result of of Democrats refusing to let new refineries be built.

  • Barge Transport. Well, if you can’t ship by rail or truck, at least you ship by barge? Not necessarily. The Mississippi River is hitting some of its lowest water levels in recorded history, resulting in parts of the river being closed to barge traffic.

    Drought closed a portion of the Mississippi River earlier this week, as the major waterway has been an absolute nightmare for tugboat captains to navigate.

    A stretch of the Mississippi River just northeast of Memphis, near Hickman, Kentucky, was closed on Monday because water levels reached record low levels. This caused a logjam of vessels and barges. And it’s the third time a portion of the river has been shuttered in weeks.

    We’ve reported dangerously low water levels have left farmers with a barge shortage as freight rates hyperinflate. Some farmers have piled up beans and other crops as logistical pipelines to transport farm goods from the Heartland by barge to export terminals in the US Gulf Coast are paralyzed due to extraordinary conditions on the Mississippi.

    Ag blog Delta Farm Press’ senior staff writer Ginger Rowsey spoke with barge captain Eric Badeaux who said it usually takes him 1-2 days to move barges from Morris, Illinois, down the Illinois River to the Mississippi River and on to New Orleans. He’s got over four decades of navigating cargo on the waterways and said because of drought and obstacles, it now takes 8-10 days for the same distance.

    “We had been on the boat two weeks and had not even made it to Memphis yet,” Badeaux said. At one point, Badeaux and his crew only traveled 60 miles in four days. They typically average 200 miles per day when heading south.

    “In one day, we burned 2,367 gallons of diesel fuel, just sitting here fighting the current,” Badeaux said. “That comes out to about $10,000 in fuel for one day, and we barely moved. Multiply the fuel costs for all of the boats just sitting here, plus all the other costs involved in boat maintenance and you can see why transportation costs are through the roof. It’s disastrous.”

    On a recent trip, Rowsey said that Badeaux pulled 20 barges of corn, soybeans, and coiled steel down the river, along with ten empty barges. He said the rapidly dropping water levels make the waterway risky to haul more barges. An average tow usually consists of 30-40 full barges.

  • There’s no guarantee that all three segments of transportation will hit crisis status at all, much less at the same time. A good bout of rain across the Midwest could ease Mississippi drought conditions. A last minute labor agreement could be reached, avoiding any strikes. And low diesel supplies don’t mean no diesel supplies.

    But if all three do hit crisis proportions in late November or early December, it’s quite likely that the holidays will be far from happy…

    The War Against Wokeness In Round Rock ISD

    October 19th, 2022

    Round Rock used to be a refugee from the leftwing madness controlling Austin. But as Austin grew, Austin leftism expanded out into the suburbs, and Williamson County got a lot more purple.

    While parents weren’t looking, social justice and critical race theory snuck into Round Rock ISD.

    A discussion of so-called “antiracism” is causing a stir in one of Texas’ most hotly contested school board races.

    In 2020, incumbent Round Rock ISD school board vice president Tiffany Harrison moderated a taxpayer-financed book discussion. “How to Be an Antiracist” by Henry Rogers (who writes under the nom de plume Ibram Kendi) was the work under consideration.

    The discussion focused on “collective guilt” where “no one is exempt” from the work of “antiracism.” From the speaker’s perspective, this is the natural conclusion when “everything in our world is racialized.”

    The ultimate, destructive end to this ideology comes when you “push at all the nodes [of society] and pull them apart.”

    This is the school board that when two parents spoke out against mask mandates, the left-wing majority had them arrested. This is the school district where parents had to sue the board for violation of the Texas Open Meetings Act. This is the school district that had a Texas Education Agency monitor installed over complaints against the board. And this is the board that thinks it’s a swell idea to force girls to shower with biological males.

    Two current board members, Danielle Weston and Mary Bone, are conservative reformers. The other five (Tiffanie Harrison, Amber Feller, Amy Weir, Kevin R. Johnson, Sr., and Cory Vessa) are leftwing social justice advocates.

    A conservative slate of candidates has stood up to run against the social justice warrior board members of RRISD. Calling themselves One Family Round Rock, they are:

  • John Keagy for Place 1. He’s running against left incumbent Kevin Johnson Sr., hard lefty candidate Estevan Jesus “Chuy” Zarate (who has a lot of signs out next to The Usual Suspects that actually mentions “Equity,” the codeword for hard left Social Justice), and Apple software engineer Yuriy Semchyshyn, running as a critic of the board. (Note: Because this is a special election, it appears below the other races on the ballot.)
  • Orlando Salinas for Place 3. He’s running against lefty incumbent Amber Feller and far lefty Maryam Zafar.
  • Jill Farris for Place 4. She’s running against incumbent lefty Cory Vessa, hard lefty Alicia Markum (whose website mentions “equity”) and board critic Linda Avila.
  • Christie Slape for Place 5. She’s running against incumbent lefty Amy Weir, RRISD Assistant Principal Stefan Bryant (for whom I cannot find a campaign website) and Joshua Billingsley (who says he’s dropped out and is supporting Weir).
  • Don Zimmerman for Place 6. He’s running against incumbent social justice warrior queen bee Tiffanie Harrison.
  • Note that there’s no runoff for RRISD elections, so whoever manages to earn a plurality in a 3- or 4-candidate race wins.

    All campaign on a variety of issues, including parental rights, opposing lockdowns, an emphasis on academic fundamentals, conducting a “forensic audit,” and opposition to the deeply suspicious hiring of superintendent Hafedh Azaiez despite several red flags. But all are also united in opposing wokeness, critical race theory, and transexual madness in Round Rock classrooms.

    I had a chance to talk with most of the slate at a campaign event a few weeks ago. All agreed that Tiffanie Harrison was the biggest source of woke militancy on the board. Zimmerman, her opponent and the highest profile politician of all those running, calls Harrison “the tip of the spear” for wokeness in RRISD.

    Zimmerman is the one most outspoken about campaigning against social justice, with signs proclaiming “ABCs and 1-2-3s, NOT CRTs and LGBTs.”

    He and several others indicated that woke principals were the ones sneaking CRT, Black Lives Matter, and gay agenda materials into the classroom. “No one seems to be responsible for it. It just shows up.”

    We know from San Francisco and elsewhere that woke social justice and transgenderism is deeply unpopular, and when parents speak up against it, they frequently win.

    Note that the Round Rock Board of Trustees is meeting tomorrow, Thursday, October 20, at 5:30 PM at the Round Rock High School 100 lecture hall (300 North Lake Creek Dr., Round Rock, TX 78681). (Open Board Meeting rules.)

    Early voting for the Texas general election starts Monday, October 24. Williamson County early voting locations can be found here, while Travis County early voting locations can be found here.

    Three Republican House Candidates to Consider Backing

    October 18th, 2022

    If you’re looking to make a late, last minute U.S. Congressional race donation to help Republicans flip the House, here are three south Texas campaigns for majority Hispanic districts you might consider donating to:

  • Myra Flores, TX-34 (Donation Page). Technically this isn’t a “flip” opportunity, since Flores eked out a Special Election win against Dan Sanchez to fill out the remaining term of Democrat Filmon Vila Jr., who left office to work at Aiken Gump. But that election was a big upset, since Vila had defeated his Republican opponent in 2020 by 14 points. In November she faces Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (an incumbent for TX-15 who changed races because his own district was becoming too competitive), who says that Flores and Republicans stole the seat by out-raising Sanchez. This seat is a bellwether for Republican chances to flip Hispanic voters to the party. I donated to Flores.
  • Cassy Garcia, TX-28 (Donation Page) Speaking of heavy lifts, Garcia is running against longtime incumbent Henry Cueller, who garnered three times the votes Garcia did in the primary and blew out his Republican opponent in 2020 by 19 points. But Biden only won the district by four points that year, and if this year is the wave election for Republicans signs seem to point to, and if south Texas Hispanics have really soured on Democrats, this is exactly the sort of seat that Republicans could snatch, like Blake Farenthold coming out of nowhere to defeat Democratic TX-27 incumbent Solomon Ortiz in 2010.
  • Monica De La Cruz, TX-15 (Donation Page.) The 15th is now an open seat, thanks redistricting making it more Republican and to Gonzalez’s decision to run in TX-34. De La Cruz is running against Democrat Michelle Vallejo, and here the Republican is the favorite in the race.
  • Three Hispanic republican women, all of whom support securing the border. If you haven’t donated to a Republican House race this cycle and want to, consider donating to one of them.

    Semiconductors: China Is Fucked

    October 17th, 2022

    I already touched on this story in Friday’s LinkSwarm, but lots of other people are now twigging to just how huge a story this is. Let’s start with that: “US Firms Pull Staff From China’s Top Chip Maker As Economic War Worsens.”

    The Biden administration’s new technology restrictions are already causing disruptions in China as US semiconductor equipment suppliers are telling staff based in the country’s top memory chip maker to leave, according to WSJ, citing sources familiar with the matter.

    State-owned Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. has seen US chip semiconductor equipment companies, including KLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp., halt business activities at the facility. This includes installing new equipment to make advanced chips and overseeing highly technical chip production.

    The US suppliers have paused support of already installed equipment at YMTC in recent days and temporarily halted installation of new tools, the people said. The suppliers are also temporarily pulling out their staff based at YMTC, the people said. –WSJ

    It’s hard to overemphasize how badly fucked China’s chip industry is with this latest move. Semiconductor equipment not only needs regular maintenance, but extremely specialized expertise when something goes wrong and your yields crash, wizards who can look at a wafer defect chart and determine by experience what’s gone wrong with which tool. Without support and spare parts from the western semiconductor equipment giants, expect yields to start crashing in a matter of months, if not weeks, especially if Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron join the pullout.

    I just put in a call to the Applied Materials press office to ask them about this. I’ll let you know if I hear back.

    As Peter Zeihan notes, these sanctions screw not only China’s semiconductor industry, but every segment of the high tech assembly chain that depends on them.

    Takeaways:

  • Not only is China now unable to import the equipment to make semiconductors, or the tools to maintain and operate the equipment, or the software that’s necessary to operate the equipment, or any mid or high level chips at all. Now any Americans who want to assist with the Chinese semiconductor industry have to make a choice: you can have your job with China or you can have your citizenship.

    I’ve read this elsewhere: “One of the provisions of President Joe Biden’s executive order is that any U.S. citizen or green card holder working in China cannot work in the Chinese semiconductor industry or risk of losing American citizenship.” The thing is, I don’t think such sanctions are constitutional, and I’m pretty sure stripping citizenship over trade regulations with a country we’re not at war with would fail the Ninth Amendment “necessary and proper” test.

    Back to Ziehan:

  • “Within about 48 Hours of the policy being adopted last Friday, every single American citizen who was working in China in the industry either quit, or their companies relocated their entire division so they wouldn’t have to lose their staff.”
  • “For all practical purposes the Chinese semiconductor industry of everything over Internet of Things level of quality is now dead, and that has a lot more implications than it sounds.”
  • “Chinese have proven incapable over the last 25 years of advancing sufficiently [to run the technology required] to operate this industry, beyond being able to simply operate the facilities that make the low end chips, and even that had to be managed by foreigners. So there is no indigenous capacity here to pick this up and move on.”
  • “In terms of industrial follow-on, this doesn’t just mean that the Chinese are never going to be able to make the chips that go into cars or computers, it also means that any industry that is dependent upon the hardware dies.”
  • China can’t do anything remotely high tech (hypersonic missiles, AI, Great firewall, etc.) without buying chips on the gray market.
  • “This is a deal killer not just for the industry, but for a modern technocratic system from a technological point of view. China is done.”
  • What’s China going to do about it? “I would expect this kind of ‘bag of dicks’ diplomacy that has evolved in China to get this hard, and loud, which will probably only encourage the Americans to act more harshly.”
  • One sign of that pullout is that Apple has shifted iPhone manufacturing from China to India, and has scrapped plans to use YMTC chips in iPhones.

    In many ways, the Biden Administration’s approach to China has been a continuation and escalation of the Trump approach: No More Mister Nice Guy, with sanctions and reshoring of American industry.

    Short of actual military action, it’s hard to see how China can effectively retaliate against America over these moves. American companies are already leaving, and China has built up so much ill will in various international trade organizations that it’s difficult to see how they could lodge a complaint with one of those and prevail.

    Previously:

  • China’s Chip Industry Is Doomed
  • Top Chinese Chip Executives Arrested
  • China’s Semiconductor Industry: Shell Games All The Way Down
  • China’s Semiconductor Play
  • Drop Drones And A Blinding Flash Of The Obvious

    October 16th, 2022

    Sometimes you have both pieces of the puzzle right in front of your face and never twig to it.

    For months I’ve been watching videos of Ukrainian forces dropping RPGs and grenades from hovering drones onto Russian vehicles. Like these:

    I’ve written about the Russian tank cope cages before, and how they were probably ineffective against top-attack antitank weapons like Javelin. But only today, after several months of watching Ukrainian drones drop grenades on tanks and armored vehicles, did the blinding flash of the obvious occur to me that maybe this is the attack the cope cages were designed to thwart. Maybe Russia ran into this tactic and Syria and it was enough of a concern to have the cope cages installed before rolling into Ukraine. Focused on anti-tank weapons and tank-on-tank engagements, maybe we missed the possible effectiveness of the new drone-drop tactic.

    Arguing against the effectiveness of this tactic, we saw a lot more cope cages at the beginning of the conflict than we’re seeing now. Maybe it’s an ineffective countermeasure. Or maybe Russia just doesn’t have the time or resources to put it on older replacement tanks being sent to the front.

    Why Hasn’t Isopropyl Alcohol Gone Back Down In Price?

    October 15th, 2022

    This is a question I don’t know the answer to, so I thought I’d throw it out to my general readership.

    Why hasn’t isopropyl alcohol dropped back down to its 2019 prices?

    Back then, I remember isopropyl alcohol being priced about on par with hydrogen peroxide, somewhere under $1 for 16 oz bottles of 50% isopropyl alcohol.

    But during The Great Flu Manchu Panic of 2020, the price of isopropyl alcohol spiked and it became scarce as untold millions of households tried to disinfect every possible surface in hopes of eradicating the then-novel virus.

    But now that the pandemic is over, and store shelves are back to being stocked, why is the price of isopropyl alcohol stuck as twice as high as what is used to be? While hydrogen peroxide seems to be back around 86¢, HEB no longer seems to have 50% isopropyl alcohol at all, only the 70% at $1.94 a bottle. But 50% seems just as pricey online at Amazon.

    Earlier this year, HEB was blowing out those off-brand hand sanitizers (which are mostly alcohol anyway) companies started producing during the pandemic for 10¢ each. So why has the price on the real one remained stuck so stubbornly high?

    I have no idea why, so I’m throwing the question out to my readers. If you know, share it in the comments below.

    Are You Prepping For Food Insecurity?

    October 13th, 2022

    Between inflation, the Russo-Ukrainian War, drought, etc., there’s a lot of worry about food insecurity around the world. While I think America will do the best of just about anyone, I’ve long been a cheap prepper, spending around $20 a year on various prep items, but recently I’ve stepped up my food buying, trying to pick up just one extra shelf-stable item a week, just in case. And I’ve been thinking about growing more food beyond the pepper plant I already have.

    Here’s a couple of videos on what to grow for food crops given limited areas.

    Both mention beans, but dried pinto beans are still pretty darn cheap, and if you like those (I don’t), you’ll want to lay in a lot of dried beans. If the emergency lasts long enough, you can grow them when you start to run low.

    I’m not wild about cabbage or kale, but I like potatoes well enough, and I think I could grow those pretty well in a tub or two, as well as sweet potatoes. And I might as well get a pumpkin for Halloween and try spreading the seeds out next spring.

    What are you doing to lay in an extra supply of food?

    [ays_poll id=4]

    If you have any other food tips for the apocalypse (or even just temporary economic disruption, like a possible rail strike), feel free to share them down below.

    Huge Ukrainian Offensive in Luhansk?

    October 12th, 2022

    Weeb Union (not my favorite Ukraine war mapper channel) is reporting a huge Ukrainian offensive just got underway in Luhansk:

    Takeaways:

  • “The reported numbers in this offensive is between 35,000 and 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers over a length of about 50 kilometers.”
  • Goal seems to be full control of the P-66 highway running from Troitske to Kreminna.
  • “They are trying to attack and capture Svatova.”
  • “Svatova is the supply hub of the Russian army here in the Luhansk border.”
  • He postulates this is the last Ukrainian offensive before Russian mobilization reinforcements reach the area. I think he greatly overestimates the effect Russia’s hastily mobilized, ill-equipped and ill-trained new recruits might have on the battlefield.
  • Not seeing any confirmation elsewhere yet. Developing…

    Update: Reporting From Ukraine (which I generally trust more than Weeb Union) also reports a lot of activity in Luhansk, but with a different overall thrust and timeline.

    Takeaways:

  • Russia launched a spoiling attack to prevent Ukraine from advancing on their defensive lines before they were fully repaired, and has some success.
  • Ukraine launched a counterattack south and north of the main Russian spoiling attack, also with some success.
  • They also launched a counter-attack in the center of the line, but with more limited success.
  • He also reports that new Russian conscripts are being put to work building the defensive position, which I can well imagine; any able-bodied adult human should be able to dig a trench. (Unless it’s Texas clay, then all bets are off…)
  • How to reconcile these reports? Both could be right, just looking at different slices of time.

    Why Does Fort Worth ISD Want To Teach “Gender Identity” To Pre-K Children?

    October 11th, 2022

    Evidently no child is too young to push the transexual agenda on, at least to some administrator at Fort Worth ISD, where they give “gender identity” training for Pre-K teachers.

    At Fort Worth ISD (FWISD), a school district of almost 75,000 students, teachers take training sessions that may endorse concepts related to critical race theory (CRT).

    A screenshot obtained from an anonymous FWISD teacher shows that pre-K teachers are required to participate in almost nine hours of “anti-bias” training in order to satisfy continuing education requirements.

    All classroom teachers in Texas must complete 150 hours of continuing education training every five years.

    The description for the anti-bias training reads, “This course offers information on culture and language, racial identity, family structures, gender identity, economic class, different abilities, holidays, and more.”

    And if teachers don’t finish the training, their pay is docked.

    Why does someone at Fort Worth ISD think that pre-K children, who don’t even know what sex is, need to be exposed to “gender identity?” Simply because the victimhood identity politics hard left simply can’t wait to corrupt your children to their worldview. Everything must be subordinated to their warped will-to-power. No child or institution is safe from their clutches.

    Vote accordingly.