Why Cruz Going for the Jugular in Ohio and Florida Is The Right Call

March 9th, 2016

If you haven’t heard, Cruz is going all-in to deny Marco Rubio a victory in Florida…even if it hands the winner-take-all state to Trump.

Ace of Spades HQ makes a compelling case that this is the right call:

However, let’s look at the flip side — what happens if Rubio and Kasich win? In that case, both men will declare victory — obviously — and then say this proves what they’ve been saying all along, that America is now ready to embrace them, that the map looks better from them starting with Guam, that they’re going to take it all the way to the convention.

And then we continue on with the field unwinnowed, and Trump continuing to win more delegates than Cruz by 43% to 36% margins. Not huge margins — but they’ll get you there, and if you’re not gaining on Trump, you’re losing to Trump.

Thus, the way I see it, the downside to Cruz of delivering Florida and Ohio to Trump is less down than the downside of letting Rubio and Kasich get their stupid fucking Participation Trophy and their excuse (and financial backing) to continue dicking around in a race that neither man can win. Neither of these guys can win more delegates than Trump now; both are hoping just to have a contested convention, and then hope that the Establishment reaches past the 1st and 2nd place finishers to deliver the win to the third or fourth place “winner” — Rubio Gold come literally true, in other words.

This makes no sense from Cruz’s perspective.

It’s time to take them both out, and then take his chances one-on-one with Trump.

Snip.

if Rubio and Kasich stay in, and continue kneecapping Cruz from winning (or winning these crucial Winner Take Alls by 50% – Cruz would be ahead of Trump if Rubio hadn’t played in Texas or Idaho), then there is no shot to get Cruz anywhere near Trump’s tally — and Trump wins the nomination.

So tell me the Truth, guys: Is #NeverTrump a real thing, or is it just a quick dash of new paint on the #Rubio4Ever thing you’ve had going for a year now?

If you want to stop Trump, you need to end these Rubio fantasies and let the only guy with an actual chance of stopping him start getting into two man races with him.

Otherwise, your #NeverTrump slogan is a lie — you’re perfectly fine with Trump. You just are using that as another pretext to lobby for Rubio.

So yeah, from Cruz’s point of view, and frankly from any sane Republican’s point of view (that is, apart from the Rubio and Kasich diehards) — it’s time to cash these two guys out. Out.

These guys are throwing the race to Trump.

And their supporters will not give up on their fantasies until those fantasies are violently torn from their hands, set on fire, and then buried under a swamp.

Clowntime is over. The time for Rubio Fantasy Love Scenarios is over. It’s time for real, tough decisions to be made, or to be made on behalf of those who just can’t get over it.

Cruz won Idaho and was second to Trump everywhere else last night.

It’s past time for Rubio and Kasich to exit the race, but for either ego or strategic leverage at the convention both refuse to do so. So Cruz doing whatever he needs to in order to boot them off the stage is the right call.

Trump Wins Early Louisiana Voting, Cruz Wins Election Day

March 8th, 2016

Heard about this election day, but Philip Bump in the Washington Post provides more details: Donald Trump won early voting, but Ted Cruz’s percentage of the vote soared on election day:

One of two things happened in Louisiana. We know that the margins between the top three candidates in the state shifted dramatically between votes cast by absentee ballot and those cast on Saturday, the day of the election. That means that either that: 1) A candidate had a very strong get-out-the-vote effort, or 2) There was a broad shift in attitudes about the candidates.

When we looked at this Saturday night, it wasn’t clear which was the case. Now, we have a better sense.

If we look at the votes in counties* for which we have data (culled from the AP’s initial and final vote tallies), you can see that Ted Cruz gained strength after the absentee vote.

Snip.

this looks like the state of Louisiana bailed on Marco Rubio in favor of Ted Cruz. Which could explain why Cruz is targeting Florida all of a sudden. On Saturday night, Donald Trump called for Rubio to drop out of the race. If he can repeat what he did in Louisiana in Florida in just over a week, Cruz will take Rubio out himself.

This pattern mirrors what Cruz did in the 2012 Texas Senate race. Dewhurst beat Cruz by 18% in early voting, but only 3% on primary day, a massive momentum shift that turned into a Cruz victory in the runoff.

Cruz is a smart, disciplined, relentless campaigner, and after Trump’s early successes in open primaries, we’re finally seeing Trump hit his ceiling and Cruz surge ahead as the superior candidate, especially in closed primary and caucus states.

That momentum, and the widespread distaste for Trump, is why many in the Republican establishment are finally, reluctantly, turning to Cruz as the only way to stop Trump.

Black Helicopters and Gas Prices

March 7th, 2016

Two observations, linked only that I saw each on the same day when traveling back to Austin from Houston:

  1. The black helicopters are back. By “black helicopters” I mean military helicopters without visible markings (though I didn’t stop to see if I could spot them) hovering over a highway, in this case I-10 near Katy. It wasn’t the only military activity I saw, as there seemed to be a lot of military transports, either in desert tan or olive drab cammo patterns, on the roads (couldn’t have been anything secret, since they were moving in broad daylight; I don’t assume Uncle Sam is aiming for stealth when he parks a military gasoline tanker in the parking lot of the Bastrop Buc-ees on a Friday afternoon). I’ve seen them over Austin before (usually hovering right over Mopac), but it’s been quite a while. What I don’t mean is NWO paranoia, space aliens, or any of that crap. If I had to guess they’re testing some sort of ground radar equipment, possible a smaller, more portable version of JSTARs. But the first order of business is reportage; people aren’t making black helicopters up out of thin air.
  2. Speaking of Buc-ees, I stopped there for gas on the way back. Since pay-at-the-pump wasn’t reading my credit/debit card, I went in and paid them $20 to put on a pump. What I had forgotten was that gas has gotten so cheap that I couldn’t put $20 worth of unleaded, at $1.39 a gallon, into my nearly empty tank. I had to go back in and get a $2 refund. One reason I mention this is that, right now, in some places in California, gas is more than $5 a gallon

Nancy Reagan, RIP

March 6th, 2016

Former First Lady Nancy Reagan has died at age 94.

If you were not alive at the time, you would not believe how much the liberal media loathed her in the 1980s. Just look at how ruthlessly they criticized her for buying enough new White House china for 220 people at state dinners for a total cost (not to the taxpayers, mind you, but picked up by a private foundation) for the cost of about 1/40th the average Obama family vacation…

Newsflash: Cruz Wins Kansas Caucuses

March 5th, 2016

Ted Cruz has won the Kansas Caucuses with 50% of the vote. Donald Trump is a distant second with a 25.8%, and Marco Rubio an even more distant third with 13.6%.

Cruz is also winning the Maine caucuses with just under 50% of the vote.

I wonder if this news will boost Cruz’s chances in closed primary states that are still voting…

Where The Gun Owners Are In Texas

March 5th, 2016

This nifty little map shows you where CHL/LTC owners are in Texas by zip code.

Hint: Everywhere.

Liberals in big cities should just get over their hyperventilating that a lawfully armed citizen might be somewhere near them, since the map shows it’s pretty much a constant certainty. Even the University of Texas at Austin, about which so hand-wringing over campus carry has been conducted, already shows 191 CHL/LTC holders in the 78705 area code.

(Hat tip: Stuf from Hsoi.)

LinkSwarm for March 4, 2016

March 4th, 2016

Enjoy another Friday LinkSwarm!

  • Justice Department grants immunity to former state department staffer who ran Hillary’s email. Hmmm…
  • The four laws Hillary broke in her email scandal. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Being a Democrat means never having to apologize for statutory rape. (Hat tip: Robert Stacy McCain.)
  • Ace of Spades reviews the latest Republican debate: “John Kasich: Continued playing to his core supporters of artisinal bong craftsmen and elderly public masturbators.” Donald Trump: “Added some substance to his foreign policy platform by declaring that he would force American soldiers to break the law and murder children. On other issues, he was less reassuring.” You’ll just have to go over and read the extended “clowns and burning blind children” metaphor for yourself…
  • Rich Lowry: “Cruz had a terrific night. He was strong and in command in his exchanges with Trump, and drew blood on Trump’s Hillary donations, his participation in the political influence game and the New York Times transcript.”
  • Why the Republican establishment had Trump coming:

    Republicans promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, fix illegal immigration, balance the budget, rein in the IRS, cut waste and fraud, defund Obama’s illegal executive orders. But every time they’re handed the controls of government, they invent some new excuse for not delivering.

    The last budget that Republicans in the House and Senate passed did the opposite of everything the GOP leaders pledged when trying to get these people’s votes. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seemed to be sending out an email to every Republican voter: Sorry, we lied.

  • Moe Lane takes a look at this Saturday’s closed primaries.
  • Da Tech Guy further notes that Cruz was behind Trump in polling for the closed primaries in Iowa, Oklahoma and Alaska, but won all three. “Of the next 9 contests Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine (March 5th) Puerto Rico (March 6th), Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi (March 8th), all but Puerto Rico & Mississippi are closed primaries.” (Hat tip: Conservatives 4 Ted Cruz.)
  • “How the P.C. Police Propelled Donald Trump: By assailing sensible conservatives as sexists, racists, and imbeciles, they paved the way for a jackass who embodies their worst fears.” Oh, now you get it? Now, when it’s no longer convenient to ignore the truth for political gain? (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.
  • “Racial justice is cool mainly when there’s something in it for the white liberal activist.”
  • If you didn’t notice on Tuesday, former senate candidate and International Man of Mystery Grady Yarbrough made the Railroad Commissioner runoff on the Democratic side along with Cody Garrett (who seems to tout how many unions he’s joined as a major achievement), and Wayne Christian and Gary Gates on the Republican side.
  • I see that Spotlight won the Oscar. Consider the source and take this piece with several grains of salt, but it suggests that the movie got the story all wrong and that some innocent priests were swept up in the same moral panic and “repressed memories” junk science that defined the McMartin Preschool case, with an added dollop of greedy trial lawyers on top.
  • My review of Hail, Caesar!
  • Newly discovered Mozart-Salieri Score.
  • “Psychiatric hospitals filling up with time travellers sent back to kill Donald Trump”

    March 3rd, 2016

    Nice one, lads:

    Psychiatric facilities across the United States are at breaking point after the number of people claiming to be sent from the future to stop Donald Trump reached epidemic proportions.

    New research has shown that every ten minutes someone claiming to the from the future sent back to save humanity is admitted to a hospital somewhere in the US.

    Complete with pic of Bruce Willis in 12 Monkeys.

    More Post-Super Tuesday Election Updates

    March 3rd, 2016

    More post-Super Tuesday results and election tidbits.

  • Cruz is the only one who can beat Trump and everyone else should unite behind him.”
  • Looking at delegates, Super Tuesday’s race between Cruz and Trump was closer than it appeared. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • The GOP must stop Trump to stop Hillary. There is no other option. And, Cruz, objectively looking at the delegate counts, is the best vehicle to do that.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • “It is time for Rubio to accept he will not be the nominee.”
  • Conservatives need to rally around Cruz. (Hat tip: Conservatves For Ted Cruz.)
  • Ted Cruz raised $12 million in February.
  • James Lileks is on the #NeverTrump bandwagon, even though he doesn’t think it will work. “His supporters are impervious to this argument.”
  • Heh: “His were the eyes of a man who has gazed into the abyss, and the abyss gazed back, and then he endorsed the abyss.” (Hat tip: Virginia Postrel on Instapundit.)
  • Tuesday was very kind to Texas incumbents. “No congressional incumbent who wanted another term was defeated…Three incumbents seeking re-election to the Texas Supreme Court held their ground against serious challengers. Two judges on the state’s highest criminal court emerged from their primaries unscathed. No state senator who sought another term was defeated.”
  • Voters to Ferdinand Frank Fischer III (AKA Trey Martinez Fischer): No you can’t have a state senate seat. Not yours.
  • In Dallas, indicted Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price wins nomination for his eighth term. “Price’s federal indictment actually helped him because it fed the perception that Price was angering the right people – Dallas’ white establishment.”
  • Voting oddity one: As a commenter on yesterday’s thread noted, here in Williamson County, GOP Presidential choices spanned two pages, with longshot Elizabeth Gray on the second page all by herself. Result: she won 3.57% of the county vote.
  • Voting oddity two: Long-gone longshot Gilmore was reported to have have won the most votes in Chelsea, Massachusetts. That was a computer counting glitch that has since been corrected. He actually got 2 votes.
  • Ben Carson to Bow Out After CPAC?

    March 2nd, 2016

    So read the tea leaves:

    Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who briefly led the Republican presidential race before his campaign began an extended public implosion, will tell his supporters in a statement Wednesday afternoon that he does not see a “path forward” and will not attend Thursday’s debate in Detroit, according to two Republicans familiar with his plans.

    Carson, however, will not formally suspend his campaign. Instead, the Republicans said, he has decided to make a speech about his political future on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland, just outside of Washington.

    Carson is a fine man who had no business running for President.