Two primary runoff tidbits, courtesy of Michael Quinn Sullivan of Empower Texans:
Liberal Texas Republican Follies
May 19th, 2018In A Surprise Development, Germany Now Sucks At War
May 16th, 2018One reason both Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolf Hitler were able to plunge the globe into successive world wars was that the German military was just that good. The combination of Germany’s industrial might and the Prussian military tradition proved a deadly and potent combination, which (along with innovations in tactics and technology) explain how the Wehrmacht rolled over so much of Europe between 1939 and 1941.
Even after the war, those factors still made West Germany’s reformed Bundeswehr one of the more formidable fighting forces in NATO.
But those days of military prowess appear to be gone, a victim of budget cuts.
If Europe is to take its destiny into its own hands any time soon, Germany has a lot of work to do—the Bundeswehr, Germany’s defense ministry, is suffering from multiple readiness crises in a culmination of years of cost-shaving and poor management decisions. And the latest symptom to emerge of that crisis is the dwindling number of actually functional fighter jets that the Luftwaffe, Germany’s air force, can actually call combat ready. For the Eurofighter Typhoon, Germany’s main fighter aircraft, that number is four—out of a total of 128.
But that’s not all:
The German Navy has had to refuse delivery of the first of its new class of frigates after the ship failed sea trials, and only five of the Navy’s existing 13 frigates were capable of being deployed. The last available German submarine was pulled out of service for repairs, as all the other submarines in the fleet sit in drydock or sit idle due to lack of replacement parts. (One of those submarines may now be back in service.) The German Army was found to lack enough tanks and armored personnel carriers, or even enough basic equipment for soldiers, to fulfill its commitment to NATO’s Very High Readiness Task Force at the beginning of 2019. While 105 out of 244 Leopard 2 tanks were called “ready for use,” only nine could be fully armed for the VHRF. Only 12 of 62 Tiger attack helicopters and 16 of Germany’s 72 CH-53 cargo helicopters were available for exercises and operations last year; the rest were grounded for maintenance. At any time over the last year, only three of the Bundeswehr Airbus A400M transport aircraft were ready to fly.
Stars and Stripes has more on the same theme:
Germany’s military is virtually undeployable and security experts say it is too weak to meet its obligations to its allies, as it prepares to assume command of NATO’s crisis response force next year.
Pressure on Berlin is mounting after a series of revelations has exposed the German military as one of the least combat ready in NATO, despite its economic heft.
“The readiness of the German military is abysmal,” said Jorge Benitez, a NATO expert with the Atlantic Council in Washington. “For years, German leaders have known that major elements of their armed forces, such as tanks, submarines and fighter jets, are not fully operational and can’t be used for actual military missions.”
The military dysfunction is likely to re-emerge as a flashpoint between Berlin and Washington when President Donald Trump attends a NATO summit in July.
Berlin’s persistent shortcomings and resistance to meeting NATO spending targets is likely to further strain relations with Washington and risks a standoff that could eventually test the unity of the alliance and the American commitment to it.
Trump, long ambivalent about the value of NATO, remains fixated on Germany as a security free-rider: The alliance “helps them a hell of a lot more than it helps us,” Trump said in December.
If you’re going to have one major industrial power suck at war, Germany is a pretty good candidate, given all the Historical Unpleasantness that resulted when they didn’t. But that development does make it unlikely that NATO can maintain anything like the agreed-upon level of deterrence.
(Hat tip: Borepatch.)
Blue Wave? Not So Much
May 15th, 2018Remember when dislike of President Donald Trump was going to propel Democrats into control of both houses of congress in an unstoppable “blue wave”?
Well, that thinking is so 2017:
After months of confidence that public discontent with President Trump would lift Democrats back to power in Congress, some party leaders are fretting that their advantages in this year’s midterms are eroding amid a shifting political landscape.
Driving their concerns are Trump’s approval rating, which has ticked upward in recent weeks, and high Republican turnout in some recent primaries, suggesting the GOP base remains energized. What’s more, Republicans stand to benefit politically from a thriving economy and are choosing formidable candidates to take on vulnerable Democratic senators.
One of their biggest sources of anxiety is the Senate race in Florida, where some Democrats fear that three-term Sen. Bill Nelson has not adequately prepared to defend his seat against Gov. Rick Scott, a well-financed former businessman handpicked for the race by Trump. Scott and Nelson are close in early polls.
“I’m concerned about the race. I think everybody is,” said Ione Townsend, the Democratic Party chair in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa. Townsend said it will “be hard to compete” with Scott’s money.
The growing alarm about Nelson, one of 10 Democratic senators running this year in a state won by Trump in 2016, prompted the Senate’s top Democrat, Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), to sound the alarm a few months ago in a private meeting in which he pleaded with Nelson to step up his efforts and hire a campaign manager, which he did not do until March, according to people familiar with the conversation.
In West Virginia, where Trump won by about 42 points and Republicans gave the president credit last week for urging voters to reject the primary candidacy of a former coal executive who had served jail time, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III acknowledged that Trump’s popularity in the state is a major boon for the Republicans.
“The more he can stay out of West Virginia and direct his energies elsewhere would be helpful,” Manchin said.
Does Manchin actually think President Trump’s going to take that advice?
In another sign that Democrats’ “All Trump Derangement Syndrome, All The Time” platform isn’t winning over voters, former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown says they need to cut it out:
It’s time for the Democrats to stop bashing President Trump.
It’s not going to be easy, given his policies and personality. It might even mean checking into a 12-step program. But setting a winning agenda is like maneuvering an aircraft carrier. It takes time to change course. And if they want to be on target for the November midterm elections, the Democrats need to start changing course now.
Like it or not, a significant number of Americans are actually happy these days. They are making money. They feel safe, and they agree with with the president’s protectionist trade policies, his call for more American jobs, even his immigration stance.
The jobs growth reports, the North Korea summit and the steady economy are beating out the Stormy Daniels scandal and the Robert Mueller investigation in Middle America, hands down.
So you are not going to win back the House by making it all about him.
Rather than stoking the base by attacking Trump, Democrats need to come up with a platform that addresses the average voters’ hopes and concerns. Not just the needs of underdogs or whatever cause happens to be the media flavor of the week.
Will Democrats heed his advice? I sincerely doubt they’re intellectually and emotionally capable of doing so. Democratic elites hate President Trump on an even more visceral level than they hated Bush43, and I doubt many are capable of dialing back the Trump Derangement Syndrome even if they wanted to…
Texas Primary Runoff Voting Starts Today
May 14th, 2018Texas primary runoff voting starts today. The headlining race is on the Democratic gubernatorial runoff, with Lupe Valdez and Andrew White jockeying for a chance to be creamed by Greg Abbott in November, but there are a number of undecided U.S. congressional races/etc., including Chip Roy vs. Matt McCall for the U.S. 21st congressional district and Bunni Pounds vs. Lance Gooden for the 5th. And here in Williamson County we have a runoff for the Place 6 on the 3rd Court of Appeals between Donna Davidson and Mike Toth (favor Toth, who’s been endorsed by Empower Texans).
SDF Finally Clearing Euphrates Pocket
May 13th, 2018After Deir Ez-Zor fell in early November of 2017, it looked like the war against the Islamic State in its own, self-professed caliphate was all but over.
But then a funny thing happened. That theater of the war seemed to go into a sort of hibernation as other theaters in Syria (the Turkish incursion, the continued war in western Syria, and recently Israel bombing Iranian positions) heated up. That left several disjointed enclvaes of Islamic State control. Here’s what things looked like in at the end of 2017:
Notice that little Islamic State pocket along the Euphrates southeast of Deir ez-Zor running from Hajin to Abu Kamal on the Iraqi border. One of the great mysteries of the war is why that enclave wasn’t crushed following the fall of Deir Ez-Zor. Instead, it remained there, largely unchanged, for half a year.
That finally appears to be changing.
In operation called #JazeeraStorm (I’m also seeing #CizireStorm), the Syrian Democratic Forces have finally launched an offensive aimed at crushing that pocket.
Here’s a tweet with a very useful map:
The #JazeeraStorm operation aims at clearing the ISIS pocket in the northeast of Syria near Deir Ezzor. Syrian Democratic Forces are leading the charge under the cover of Coalition and Iraqi jets. The fight will be hard, but all struggles against tyranny are. Map via @Gargaristan pic.twitter.com/ZehICEla70
— Anthony Avice Du Buisson ♔ (@StoicViper) May 9, 2018
Today the village of Baqhous, directly on the Iraqi border, was captured, meaning the SDF have successfully pushed to the Euphrates there and are cooperating with Iraqi army troops to secure the border.
#Syria #CizireStorm#YPG and #Iraq|i soldiers together along Iraq-Syria border in order to accelerate the deafeat of #Isis. pic.twitter.com/IYFyVvxkFb
— Mr. Revinsky (@MrKyruer) May 12, 2018
Here’s a map of what the pocket looks like now:
It’s possible that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi may be hiding in the Euphrates pocket. Given how elusive al-Baghdadi has been in previous phases of the war, I’ll believe it when we announce his capture.
Real Charges Finally Filed in Waco Biker Shootout
May 12th, 2018Finally, just shy of three years after the Twin Peaks shootout between rival biker gangs that left nine people dead, suspects have finally been indicted on charges of murder in their deaths:
A McLennan County grand jury Wednesday re-indicted 24 of the remaining 37 defendants in the Twin Peaks biker shootout on a variety of charges, as the district attorney’s office continues to veer sharply from the prosecutorial path it took three years ago.
The bikers had previously been indicted in 2015 or 2016 on identical charges of engaging in organized criminal activity as members of criminal street gangs.
The new charges handed down Wednesday include three murder counts, in addition to first-degree and second-degree riot charges and tampering with physical evidence charges.
Prosecutors are expected to dismiss the cases of remaining Twin defendants who were not re-indicted Wednesday, officials close to the cases said. The statute of limitations to charge bikers with riot runs out next week, though there is no statute of limitations on murder.
While the DA’s office did not dismiss the engaging in organized criminal activity charges, the new charges will supersede the older charges and are the ones prosecutors say they will pursue from now on.
The original organized crime charge carried a maximum sentence of life in prison. Some of the defendants now are facing a lighter possible maximum sentence, while those who were indicted on murder or first-degree riot charges could still be sentenced to life.
Judge Matt Johnson of Waco’s 54th State District Court said Wednesday he will not require the bikers re-indicted in his court to make post-indictment bonds or to be arrested again. Judge Ralph Strother of 19th State District Court said he also will not require the bikers to post new bonds, saying he deems the original bonds to be sufficient.
Nine bikers were killed and 20 injured on May 17, 2015 in the shootout between Bandidos and Cossacks at the former Twin Peaks restaurant. The DA’s office has dismissed 118 of the original 155 Twin Peaks indictments in the past few months, and none of those dismissed defendants were re-indicted Wednesday.
Among those still facing charges with a possible life sentence is Jeffrey Battey, a 53-year-old Bandido from Ponder, who was re-indicted on a murder count and a first-degree felony riot count in the shooting death of Matthew Smith.
Seth Sutton, Battey’s Waco-based attorney, said if “Reyna’s regime” had wanted the grand jury to get a complete picture of the evidence, prosecutors should have allowed Sutton to address the panel.
“As with the original indictment from 2015, Mr. Reyna clearly did not want the grand jury to hear the truth,” Sutton said. “We look forward to the day when we will finally get to present exactly what happened on May 17, 2015, to a jury of 12 McLennan County citizens.
“It is this kind of misguided prosecution that has wasted millions of taxpayer dollars, has undermined the public confidence in our system of justice and has produced hundreds of dismissals with no convictions. As we have maintained from the beginning, we believe that justice will prevail for Mr. Battey and that he will be acquitted of all wrongdoing,” he said.
Reyna has kept a low profile at the courthouse since his defeat in the March Republican primary, and he did not return phone messages Wednesday.
I’ll bet he didn’t. If Reyna had just done his freaking job rather than pursue an unconstitutional policy of collective guilt, these indictments could have been handed down more than two years ago.
Also indicted in the murder of Matthew Smith was Ray Arnold Allen, 48, of Krum, a Bandido who also was indicted on riot charges.
According to court records, Smith, 27, of Keller, was shot twice — once in the upper back and once in the abdomen. The bullet in his back was described as a “medium-caliber jacketed projectile.” The bullet through his abdomen hit his right kidney and aorta before exiting.
A Waco police officer reported that as he approached the Twin Peaks shootout scene he saw Battey and Allen standing behind the restaurant “in a triangulated position” in relation to Smith, who was lying on the ground about five yards away and “gasping for air,” according to court documents.
An officer noticed Allen had a silver handgun in his hand and said Battey had been shot in his upper right shoulder, according to the documents.
Also Wednesday, the grand jury indicted Glenn Allen Walker, 46, on murder and riot counts. He is charged in the death of Richard Kirschner, 47, of Wylie.
Kirschner, 47, suffered a gunshot wound to his right thigh, one to the left knee and one in the left buttock. He also suffered a superficial cut to the right side of his neck, a scalp laceration and abrasions to his face, trunk and extremities, reports show.
The grand jury also re-indicted Jacob Carrizal, 36, president of the Dallas Bandidos chapter and the only one of the original 155 indicted bikers to stand trial so far. Carrizal’s trial ended in mistrial when the jury could not reach a unanimous verdict.
Carrizal was re-indicted on a first-degree riot charge, which has a maximum possible sentence of life in prison.
This is a vast step forward toward bringing justice to all involved, innocent and guilty alike. The issue of law enforcement overreaction, which appears to be a significant cause in some of the deaths, remains unresolved.
(Hat tip: Dwight.)
LinkSwarm for May 11, 2018
May 11th, 2018You know what doesn’t seem to be happening today? An all-out war between Israel, Syria and Iran.
I’m thinking that the Democrats who are making such a big deal out of these ads really don’t themselves believe in democracy. They have been going on and on for a year and a half about how Donald Trump shouldn’t be President. Personally, I want to believe in democracy, and what I saw back in November 2016 is that the American people voted Donald Trump into office. I accept that he is rightfully President because he won the election. It bothers me tremendously that so many people won’t do that. I think they do not believe in democracy. And I know they are leaning very hard into the argument that what happened wasn’t real democracy. Look at those stupid ads they’ve made such a big deal about!
AND: Please don’t tell me about Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote. What if Donald Trump had held rallies in upstate New York and various places in California, etc. etc.? He won the election that was held. She won an imaginary election that he wasn’t competing in.
Now some links from the “Old News Is So Exciting!” file:
Israel, Iran and Syria Throw Down
May 10th, 2018Following several weeks of Israel hitting (primarily Iranian) targets inside Syria, Syria (and Iran) struck back, firing missiles (reportedly from Iranian Quds forces) at Israeli positions on the Golan Heights, while Israel responded by stepping up missile and aircraft strikes, and launched an artillery barrage against Hezbollah forces just inside Syria.
What all did Israel hit?
An IDF statement said fighter jets had struck “dozens of military targets” belonging to Iran inside Syria. They included:
Intelligence sites associated with Iran and the “Radical Axis” – a term Israeli officials use to refer to an alliance between Iran, Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement and Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas A logistics headquarters belonging to the Quds Force A military logistics compound in Kiswah, a town south of Damascus An Iranian military compound north of Damascus Quds Force munition storage warehouses at Damascus International Airport Intelligence systems and posts associated with the Quds Force Observation and military posts and munition in the Golan demilitarised zone The Iranian launcher from which the rockets were fired overnight .
The IDF said it had also targeted several Syrian military air defence systems after they fired at the Israeli fighter jets despite an Israeli “warning”.
Meanwhile, Iran’s missile attack was reportedly a massive failure. “Four of its missiles were intercepted by the Iron Dome defense system and the rest fell in Syrian territory.”
Let’s get the obligatory meme out of the way:
How real remains to be seen. It’s not remotely 1947, 1967, or 1973 real, or even Lebanon 2006 real. It’s probably more real right now than Bekaa Valley 1982 real, which was plenty real enough.
So, I dunno. A three, maybe?
Livemap shows the activity in the theater:
So what happens now? Does the situation escalate or deescalate? I suspect deescalate, mainly because Israel may have run out of Iranian targets in Syria to bomb…