Peter Zeihan Thinks We Won The Great Balloon War

February 13th, 2023

After talking to his government sources, Peter Zeihan thinks that we won The Great Balloon War, having gained valuable insights by capturing Chinese tech, and that the entire episode is another symptom of high level CCP dysfunction.

Some takeaways:

  • “What the Chinese were technically trying to do: They were doing overflight of a lot of our military bases, specifically our ICBM launch facilities, because the Chinese are new to having a nuclear deterrent.”
  • “Remember that as early as the 1970s, the United States had over 30,000 nuclear weapons, about one-third of which would have been deployed by missile. Now, with arms control treaties and the post-cold war environment, we have slimmed that down to just a few hundred.” Here Zeihan is wrong. The declared number of nuclear warheads the United States possesses is 3,750, but those numbers don’t count tactical nuclear weapons. Including those yields an estimate in the 5,500 range, though some 1,800 of those are slated for dismantlement.
  • “But the United States has a deep bench of experience in building and maintaining these things and the Chinese simply don’t.”
  • “Balloons are big, they’re slow moving, you can’t maneuver them very well, they’re obvious.”
  • He reiterates his theory that Xi has purged any possible successor and surrounded himself with slavish yes-men.
  • “It just never occurred to me that they could be that dumb. Well, turns out the rampant stupidity that is taking over decision making in Chinese policy has now reached a bit of a break point.”
  • “The Chinese have lost the ability to coordinate within their own system.”
  • “The Americans were reaching out to the Chinese, and the Chinese refused to take the call because they didn’t know what to say, because they couldn’t get directions.”
  • “The bureaucracy is seized up…there’s really only two types of people left: Those who will do nothing unless they are explicitly instructed to do something, or those who are True Believers.”
  • He doesn’t think that the Chinese got anything from balloon observation of our missile silos they couldn’t have gotten from satellites.
  • “The whole time U.S. hardware was tracking that balloon, tracking its emissions, taking digital renderings of the entirety of the structure, and, oh yeah, yeah, just just so we’re, clear this one’s not a weather balloon, this thing was 300 feet wide. That’s a big ass balloon. That’s like an order of magnitude bigger than weather balloons.”
  • “The equipment that was hanging from the bottom of the balloon, the payload was bigger than an Embraer [jetliner], and there were long range antennas and listening devices and computing capacity and solar panels on this thing, along with some propellers.”
  • “The diplomatic system seized up because the truth was so obvious, but the Chinese diplomatic corps had no idea that this was going on.”
  • He asserts that it we shot it down over Montana, there’s a good chance people would die, which is simply not the case, since there are vast stretches of Montana with very minimal population. (See also: the Columbia explosion.)
  • “We’re getting a better look at spy equipment out of China, and their capabilities, and their emissions, and how they handle information, and what they’re looking for, as a result of this incident than normally you would have gotten after a one or two year probing effort using more traditional methods.”

    • Zeihan and his sources either missed or omitted a more likely explanation for China’s spy balloon, mainly that they were more interested in signals intelligence and threat response communication than photographing ICBM silos (though they might well have done some of that too). Because radio waves bounce off the ionosphere, that’s the sort of information you can’t get from satellites. Maybe the point of the exercise was intended to see what sort of signals they could capture when we scrambled assets to take a look at them.

    Still an incredibly stupid thing to do, but more purposely stupid than Zeihan gives them credit for.

    Tags: , , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Economics, Media Watch, Military, unions, video | 11 Comments »

    Haley? No. Pence? No. Pompeo? No. Sununu? No.

    February 12th, 2023

    Now that it’s less than two years before the 2024 Presidential election, a small crop of Republicans whose last names are not “DeSantis” or “Trump” seem to have convinced themselves that they’re viable Republican presidential candidates. These people are either wrong or running for Vice President. The lack of enthusiasm for all four of the would-be candidates is palpable.

  • Former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. For some reason (photogenic?), NRSC has been using her as one of their email begathon pitch-critters for a while, which probably explains why I’ve been receiving countdown emails (“I’m making a special announcement in 6 days.”) for her-not-even-remotely anticipated run. One struggles in vain to find the significant party faction Haley appeals to. Soft feminist Republican businesswomen? Indian-Americans? Plus: She appointed Tim Scott to the senate. Minuses: Backed Rubio in 2016, and was soft on culture war/social justice issues until about late 2020, and refused to fight transgender bathrooms, very low-hanging fruit for actual conservatives, back when she had a chance as SC Governor. No thank you. Effectively running for Vice President.
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence. Former Vice Presidents (Nixon, Bush41) used to have the inside tract to a White House nod in the Republican Party, but those days are gone. A solid, unexciting Vice President in the Walter Mondale mode for the first 46 months of his term who royally pissed off Trump supporters with his words and deeds in the last two months. Rational or not, Trump supporters now seem actively hostile to a Pence run, and since they were his only potential base of significant support (and only if Trump didn’t run), that’s a real obstacle, despite him checking almost all of the right policy boxes. If he runs (I have my doubts, as he doesn’t seem to have even his own website), he’s effectively running in the John Kasich lane (right down to the “unexciting Midwestern governor” background), which is a one-way ticket to Palookaville. No thank you. The only candidate here that we know isn’t running for Vice President.
  • Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. There was a time when being Secretary of State was a solid stepping stone to The White House. And that time was “the early 1800s,” as Martin van Buren was the last to do it, and only after a stint as Vice President. Which is bad news for Pompeo, arguably the most successful Secretary of State since James Baker. Between the Abraham Accords and keeping the War on Terror coalition together long enough to destroy the nascent caliphate of the Islamic State, Pompeo was a vast improvement over the largely ineffective Rex Tillerson, and worked well with foreign nations and international organizations that were, to put it mildly, not wild about his boss. And he has some other impressive credentials as well. “He graduated first in his class from West Point, and from Harvard Law and was on Harvard Law Review. After six years in the House of Representatives, he became CIA director for Trump, and then secretary of state – the only person ever to hold both jobs.” His short congressional tenure earned him a 97% score from the ACU. For me one of the biggest problems with Pompeo is that, like Haley, I primarily know his post-office career as a guy constantly in my inbox begging for money, and also talking like a career politician that’s already cranking up the baloney factory before properly introducing himself for a run. As Beto O’Rourke found out, three terms in the house is exceptionally thin electoral experience for a Presidential run. Plus his attempt to use “pipehitter” as a catchphrase for some sort of imaginary blue collar credibility was just laughable, as the term conjures drug addicts rather than plumbers. There’s just a bit too much standard issue political phoniness here, and Pompeo strikes me as someone who’s time has already passed. No thank you, but the softest no thank you of these four.
  • New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. I was only vaguely aware of Sununu The Younger, but his attack on DeSantis for having the balls to fight the poison of social justice instantly rocketed him to the bottom of my list. You would think Romney’s failure would have soured the party on moderate business-oriented governors, but evidently Sununu didn’t get the memo. Likewise, I doubt modern voters are interested in voting for Bush Lite The Next Generation. No thank you. An unwillingness to actual fight for conservative values is automatically disqualifying, and I don’t him bringing anything to the table as a Veep pick.

    • So there you have it. Four people who are not going to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2024.

    Bring on the Trump-DeSantis match!

    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Elections, Foreign Policy, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors | 31 Comments »

    Cronk Conked

    February 11th, 2023

    Following the huge power outages from untrimmed trees in the most recent ice storm, Austin City Manager Spencer Cronk has evidently been fired.

    Austin City Council members unanimously agreed to part ways with City Manager Spencer Cronk, two city council members told KXAN under the condition they not be named.

    The decision was made behind closed doors in executive session Thursday but has not been announced publicly yet. The city manager had no comment, a spokesperson said.

    Mayor Kirk Watson ultimately placed an item on Thursday’s agenda to “evaluate” the city manager’s performance, with the backing of a handful of city council members, after overwhelming swaths of Austin Energy customers lost power during last week’s ice storm.

    “The members of the City Council had a productive executive session on Thursday night. I’m going to honor that process and won’t comment on the matters that were discussed,” Watson said Friday.

    Council members said they were also frustrated with Cronk’s Wednesday night announcement that the Austin Police Association and the city have reached an agreement in principal without looping in city council members.

    Clearly Austin Energy’s ice storm prevention and response was woefully inadequate, but Cronk is largely the scapegoat for the Austin City Council’s own “green” priorities over actual tree maintenance. Austin’s radical leftwing government is filled with people who love preserving trees almost as much as they love raking off graft for leftwing causes.

    Scapegoat or not, crazy leftwing causes are why I won’t be mourning Cronk’s departure, as he picked the radical leftwing activist participating in the “Reimaging Austin Police” lunacy. There’s no guarantee, but with Watson as mayor and Mackenzie Kelly on the council, maybe there’s a small chance Austin can hire a city manager more interested in actually managing city government in a competent manner that earning social justice warrior brownie points.

    Tags: , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Austin, Democrats, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas | 4 Comments »

    LinkSwarm for February 10, 2023

    February 10th, 2023

    Here’s a longer-than-usual LinkSwarm, since last week’s edition was wiped out by the ice storm power outage.

  • The leftwing corruption of all government institutions continues apace. “US lost 287,000 jobs while government was reporting +1 million in gains.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • More cheery Biden Economy news: “Warning Signs Indicate a Great Depression May Be Coming.”

    “That’s because economic growth is slowing down,” explains research fellow EJ Antoni. “Even the areas which contributed positively to gross domestic product (GDP) are not necessarily signs of prosperity. For example, business investment grew at only 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter, but that was almost entirely inventory growth. Nonresidential investment, a key driver of future economic growth, was up just 0.7 percent.”

    “Meanwhile, residential investment fell off a cliff,” Antoni continued, “dropping 26.7 percent as consumers were unable to afford the combination of high home prices, high interest rates and falling real incomes. No wonder homeownership affordability has fallen to the lowest level in that metric’s history.”

    There was a gain in net exports, but that was largely a mirage created by a major slowdown in international trade. “Imports are simply falling faster than exports, which shows up as an increase in GDP.”

    But probably most concerning to Antoni is the sharp decline in real disposable income in 2022, which exceeded $1 trillion.

    “This is the second-largest percentage drop in real disposable income ever, behind only 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression,” he observed. “To keep up with inflation, consumers are depleting their savings and burning through the ‘stimulus’ checks they received during 2020 and 2021. Credit card debt continues growing, while savings plummeted $1.6 trillion last year, falling below 2009 levels.”

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • Boom. “Texas has punted Citigroup from the syndicate that’s set to manage the Lone Star state’s largest-ever municipal bond offering, saying the bank’s policies for gun retailers discriminate against the firearms industry.”
  • “DeSantis Admin Revokes Liquor License of Orlando Venue That Hosted Sexual Drag Show for Children.” Good.
  • “DeSantis Takes Wrecking Ball To ‘Diversity, Equity, And Inclusion’ Bureaucracy In Florida Public Universities. Even better!
  • Also, the College Board caved and removed Critical Race Theory material from its Advanced Placement African American Studies.
  • DNC to Iowa: Drop Dead.
  • “368 Arrested, 131 Rescued In California Sex Trafficking Operation.”
  • Just what our health care system needs: “25 People Charged In Fake Nursing Diploma Operation,” in Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Texas, and Florida.
  • Hunter Biden admits that that the laptop is his. This is 100 times more important a story than the Chinese spy balloons.
  • “U.S. Deploys 100 New Tank Transporters to Move M1 Tanks Quickly in Europe.”
  • Suicide bomber blows up mosque in Pakistan.
  • Journalists drop the mask. “Objectivity Has Got To Go.”
  • Related: CNN Ratings hit nine year low.
  • Gawker shuts down. Let’s have a moment of silenceOK that’s enough. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Grand Theft Pollo. The food service director of an impoverished Illinois school district was charged with stealing $1.5 million of food — most of which was chicken wings. Vera Liddell, 66, allegedly began stealing from the Harvey School District during the height of COVID-19.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • That old Communist Magic: “Food in Cuba is both scarce and unaffordable as prices double while incomes remain stagnant.” (Hat tip: The Other McCain.)
  • Important safety tip: Try not to poke downed kamikaze loitering munition drones with a stick.
  • It now costs more to fuel an electric car than a gas-powered one.
  • Bill Maher continues to take regular red pills. “The problem with communism and some very recent ideologies here at home, is that they think you can change reality by screaming at it.”
  • We could be heroes, just for one day. Or once a month, as the case may be…
  • Over 400 sandwiches and pre-packaged meals recalled due to listeria.
  • This week in rapper murders: “Tampa rapper arrested for young mother’s murder days after being acquitted of recording studio double-murder.”

    A Tampa jury acquitted Billy Adams of killing two men in a makeshift recording studio in Lutz. He walked free from a Tampa courtroom on January 27.

    Three days later, a young mother who was pregnant with her second child was found shot to death in a residential area of New Tampa. Her toddler was still in her vehicle nearby.

    A week after her death, Tampa police said Billy Adams “did admit to being the one to pull the trigger.”

    (Hat tip: Dwight.)

  • How Louis C.K. uncancelled himself.
  • Related: Louis C.K. discusses how he develops a set on Joe Rogan.
  • The ice storm took out KXAN’s transmitter tower. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • The last 747 rolls out. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Ozzy Osbourne retires from touring at age 74. Honestly, the odds Ozzy would even make it to 74 must have seemed pretty daunting throughout much of his life.
  • Professional eater vs. giant calzone.
  • World’s oldest dog is a Good Boy.

    • Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Austin, Budget, Communism, Crime, Democrats, Economics, Elections, Foreign Policy, Guns, Jihad, Media Watch, Military, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, Texas | 7 Comments »

    American Business And Chinese Money

    February 9th, 2023

    Despite increasing sanctions and scrutiny on hostile Chinese business practices and intellectual property theft, private equity firms have previously managed to mostly evade scrutiny for taking Chinese money. That may finally be changing.

    Takeaways:

  • “The US is starting to wise up on Chinese investments. It’s been cracking down by closing loopholes But not all the loopholes have been closed, Which means China could be getting US trade secrets.”
  • “Better late than never. This feels like your grandparents finally learning how to unplug and plug back in the WiFi router. Shouldn’t have taken this long to figure out something so obvious, but glad they eventually got there.”
  • “After years of letting China buy up sensitive US technology, property, and companies, the US government is finally putting its foot down. In 2018, Trump signed the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act, or FIRRMA. This changed how the Committee on Foreign Investment, or CFIUS, screened investments in the US for national security issues.”
  • “Before, CFIUS could only review foreign investments if they resulted in a controlling stake. Now CIFIUS can review any investment.”
  • “When Biden got into office, he ordered CFIUS to look at all investments that affect critical aspects of the US supply chain, or Americans’ personal data, and several other things.”
  • “As you might imagine, this has not gone over well with Wall Street, which loves Chinese money more than Snoop Dogg loves marijuana.”
  • “‘Wall Street now stands as an increasingly lonely voice arguing for more engagement with China.’ This was going on even as China was taking a wrecking ball to its economy with its zero covid policy, committing genocide against an ethnic minority, and selling the organs of political prisoners for profit. Find someone that loves you the way Wall Street loves Chinese money. They’re ride or die…and the people that die are political prisoners.”
  • “Private equity and venture capital firms were able to get an exception granted in FIRRMA for limited partners. That means that if a foreign entity becomes a limited partner in, say, a private equity fund, CFIUS doesn’t have any jurisdiction over it. Should have seen something like this coming. Finding loopholes is what Wall Street does best.”
  • “The type of investments that private equity firms are involved in means that Chinese companies could get access to critical technology. Stuff that could affect national security. Portfolio details could hold national economic or intelligence value.”
  • “The China Investment Corporation or CIC. At $1.3 trillion US dollars, it’s the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. ‘CIC has said repeatedly that it separates commercial activities from governmental functions and makes its investment decisions independently.'”

  • “CIC’s board of directors includes representatives from the Chinese government.”
  • “CIC’s Deputy General Manager Qi Bin has explained that cooperation with developed economies is to be leveraged to obtain advanced technology.”
  • “CIC is also partnering with large investment companies, like Goldman Sachs, Japan’s Nomura Holdings, and France’s BNP Paribas. CIC’s Deputy General Manager Qi Bin has talked about leveraging these partnerships for the ‘win-win’ ‘mutual benefit’…of Chinese companies. Somehow I’m getting the sense that “win win” has a different meaning in China. I think in English we would call this ‘short-term win for long-term loss.’ I’ll give you my money and you give me your trade secrets.”
  • There’s finally some efforts for CFIUS to close private equity loopholes.

    • Pardon me if I express deep skepticism that the Biden White House will actually constrict the inflow of Chinese money…

    Tags: , , , , ,
    Posted in Communism, Economics, Foreign Policy | 1 Comment »

    India’s Semiconductor Push: More Smoke Than Fire

    February 8th, 2023

    India has been trying to get into semiconductor fabrication for a while now, and after announcing a $10 billion investment fund, and with China locked out of so much semiconductor technology, there have been a lot of news bubbling up, but I want to focus on the Foxconn/Vedanta fab project.

    The Economic Times is reporting that Foxconn and Vedanta are seeking to bring in European chipmaker STMicroelectronics as their technology partner in their proposed India manufacturing unit. The two companies announced their joint venture February 2021, with Foxconn as lead partner. Vedanta are reportedly seeking to onboard a CXO to head their semiconductor business.

    Snip.

    Vedanta-Foxconn are set to finalize a location for their facility in the next few weeks. The consortium are reportedly seeking a 800-1000 acre land parcel that is also well connected with Ahmedabad. The Gujarat government, as of media reports on September 16, showing sites at Sanand and Mandal-Becharaji in Ahmedabad district, two locations near Vadodara in central Gujarat, Dholera, Himmatnagar, Jamnagar, and Kutch. The plant has to be located at a distance from national and state highways so to cut off any vibration from heavy traffic movement. Further, no other major industry should be located in its vicinity.

    Vedanta and Foxconn, in a 60-40 joint venture, will be setting up India’s first semiconductor production plant, a display fab unit, and a semiconductor assembling and testing unit over 1000 acres in Ahmedabad, state of Gujarat. The plant will begin production in two years as Foxconn plays the role of technical partner while Vedanta provides financial backing. The investment is worth over INR 1.54 trillion (approx. US$20 billion) and semiconductor manufacturing will be carried out by the holding company, Volcan Investments Limited.

    Foxconn is a serious tech player that has serious mastery over the value-added chain. $20 billion, assuming it actually materializes, is real money, even in semiconductors. It’s right around the threshold to build a state of the art sub-10nm fab, even though it’s apparent that that’s not what they’re aiming for.

    Vedanta, on the other hand, is another matter. They’re “a globally diversified natural resources company. We extract and process minerals, oil and gas.” Yeah, a natural resources company generally isn’t who you want running your fabs. Another strike is their talking about “Net Zero Carbon by 2050,” which suggests they may have their fingers in political scam pies.

    STMicroelectronics is a real chipmaker that runs real fabs, but not the first company I would turn toward to purchase cutting edge process technology from, nor even the tenth. The fact that STM has already announced plans to team up with Global Foundries to build a new 300mm fab next to their existing fab line in Crolles, France in June 2022 makes me even more suspicious. Information on that existing 300mm Crolles fab is sketchy, and I know that for a long time it was a pilot rather than a production line, and I can see no evidence that it was ever expanded to volume production.

    The fact that they plan to set set up a fab, a display fab, and a slice-and-dice packaging facility suggest a certain lack of focus. Flat Panel Display (FPD) fabs use familiar semiconductor steps, but the machines are very different because the substrates are different, and Samsung has huge dedicated display fabs. It’s setting up a modern chip fabrication plant that’s the difficult part, and while this combination could probably put together a solid trailing edge fab, like Bosch’s new 65nm fab. But that only cost $1.2B. Maybe they plan to build something in the 20-10nm range.

    “The plant will begin production in two years.” Yeah, that’s not happening. Even giant players like TSMC and Intel generally take 2.5-3 years to stand up a new fab from breaking ground to starting up the line.

    This could still happen, but the details are very sketchy. The slice and dice operation could be set up without too much difficulty, but it’s a low volume, low tech spinoff operation. A display fab would be more difficult, but it’s doable, though again, probably not in two years. But a real 300mm wafer, sub-65mn node microchip fabrication plant in India? I don’t see this set of players carrying that off well in three years. Five sounds more realistic, and that’s assuming the deal doesn’t fall apart.

    Other India semiconductor plays sound even more nebulous.

    Taiwan’s TSMC is also looking to set up a chip-fabricating factory in India, and is currently speaking to various government agencies to check the viability of setting up factory in India. TSMC already has one of its largest offices outside of Taiwan in India in Bengaluru, Karnataka, from where it provides support to its’ existing customers in Asia, Europe and North America and supports and encourages fabless companies in India in design and growth.

    Ever since news N Chandrasekaran – chairman of the Tata group, announced that Tata Electronics (TEPL) will set up an Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) facility in India, there has a been a lot of speculation, according to which, TSMC and Tata may enter into a partnership.

    Besides TSMC, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, a Taiwanese chipmaker, is also in exploratory negotiations with several Indian companies to help establish new chip operations in the country, as per a report by Taipei Times. According to the newspaper, the memory chip maker’s announcement put an end to six months of speculation that it was planning to invest in India to diversify its operations despite Taiwan’s rising geopolitical tensions.

    “Speaking to,” “exploring plans,” etc. These are very wishy-washy terms. Powerchip is a memory manufacturer that’s hardly flush with cash. I’m sure TSMC is talking to a lot of countries about fabs, but their newest one is under construction in Arizona.

    International Semiconductor Consortium (ISMC), a joint venture between UAE’s Next Orbit Ventures and Israel’s Tower Semiconductor, was supposed to spend $3 billion to get started on a 40-65nm analog fab right about now, but I don’t see signs that’s actually happened. Tower is a real foundry, and the $3 billion pricetag and 4-5 year timeline seems realistic, but I’m not 100% sure they’re still interested in the project after Intel announced plans to buy them about a year ago. And having to bring in Arab petrostate funding for your venture is seldom a sign of strong financial viability.

    There’s no reason you can’t build one or more modern fabs in India, but so far no major chip manufacturer has chosen to do so, despite the supposed availability of $10 billion in government subsidies.

    Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Economics, Elections, Foreign Policy | 1 Comment »

    24,000 Austin Area Residents Still Without Power

    February 7th, 2023

    My own power has stayed on continuously since Saturday morning, but a lot of Austin-area residents are not so fortunate.

    There are still 24,000 Austinites still without power as of Monday morning, with a projected point of resolution still six days away.

    Gov. Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for Travis County and six others across the state on Saturday. That opened the door to deploy “all available” state resources necessary to help alleviate the issues. Austin and Travis County officials issued their own disaster declarations last week.

    Across the whole state, 32,600 people are without power, down from the near-half a million in the middle of last week. Marked progress has been made, but Austin Energy continues to struggle to restore power for the remnant after an ice storm downed power lines across its service area.

    Falling tree branches are the foremost culprit of the circuit disruption, and certain areas experienced repeated outages after successive breaks occurred.

    Indeed. In the 2021 ice storm, power outages were due to ERCOT’s over-reliance on renewable energy sources, failure to match supply to demand, and foolishly power-cycling areas (like the Permian Basin) that made things worse by constraining energy supplies, but the 2023 ice storm outages were almost entirely due to power-line being taken out by ice-encrusted branches. (In my neighborhood, pretty much every house had multiple large branches snap off from the ice accumulation, and several people lost entire trees.)

    “Based on current information, we expect to restore power to nearly all remaining customers by Sunday, February 12, with the exception of those in need of electrical repairs to customer-owned or maintained equipment,” the City of Austin said in a Monday morning release. In addition to home outages, there were 36 traffic signals out as of Sunday afternoon.

    But looking ahead to this week’s forecast, the city cautioned, “The expected weather conditions this week may damage power lines and already weakened trees, causing additional outages, increasing the risk for our lineworkers, and slowing progress.”

    Austin Energy, the city-owned utility provider, contracted linemen from surrounding utilities to assist with the repair endeavor.

    Officials stated that the ice accumulation was heavier and more pervasive than during the 2021 blackouts, which were caused mainly by a statewide power grid failure and not local downed power lines.

    One big contributing factor seems to be that tree removal near power lines hasn’t always been a priority for Austin Energy.

    Ice on power lines and nearby branches is to blame for most of Austin Energy’s power outages this week.

    Austin Energy’s website shows tree clearance is based on the type of tree.

    Fast-growing trees, like pecan, have a 15-foot clearance. The slow-growing species, like cedar, have a 10-foot clearance. Any trees near high-voltage transmission cables must be trimmed 25 feet back.

    Austin Energy’s website shows three contracting companies were hired to help clear a backlog of work around the city.

    “Vegetation management is something that we’re very focused on. Over the past several years we have increased our budget and our focus to trim trees. We could really use help in that area with getting our residents to understand the importance of vegetation management, to allow our crews in, to get the vegetation management done. We can always be better,” Jackie Sargent, general manager for Austin Energy, said in a press conference Thursday.

    Before Austin Energy trims any tree, the company considers the seasons that oak wilt peaks at and if any tree contains bird habitats.

    “We make every effort to avoid trimming red oak and live oak trees between February through June when oak wilt is more likely to spread. When possible, we avoid trimming from March to September to protect Golden-cheeked Warbler and Black-capped Vireo habitat areas (applies to undeveloped areas west of MoPac). However, we conduct limited trimming on oak trees during the oak wilt window in areas that are experiencing frequent vegetation-related outages or emergency situations,” Austin Energy’s website shows.

    What are mere tax- and energy bill-paying citizens compared to the safety of the Golden-cheeked Warbler and Black-capped Vireo?

    Looking at the 2022 Austin Energy Annual Report, the words “trees” and “pruning” do not appear anywhere at all, but “Green” shows up 11 hits. Appearing green seems a much higher priority for Austin Energy and the Austin City Council than trimming the actual greenery necessary to ensure the lights stay on.

    Some adjustment seems in order.

    Tags: , , , ,
    Posted in Austin, Texas | 3 Comments »

    Follow-Up on Ukraine’s Kamikaze Drones

    February 6th, 2023

    Given that the original video generated doubts as to its veracity, I thought I would post this followup that goes into more detail about Ukraine’s low-cost suicide drone/loitering munition.

  • These look considerably less jury-rigged than the previous drones.
  • “These are publicly funded…Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense made a public appeal for donations to buy 1,000 of these.”

  • There seem to be different types with different warhead sizes. “The technical details are a bit vague. I’ve seen mentioned ranges of just two kilometers to over 10 kilometers.”
  • We see the successful attacks, but not the failures.
  • “These cost around 200 to manufacture, so they’re also extremely cost effective.” Indeed, even more cost-effective than my original estimates.

    • Tags: , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Foreign Policy, Military, video | 4 Comments »

    Two Videos About Velma

    February 5th, 2023

    Velma, if you haven’t heard, is HBO Max’s “re-imagining” of the animated Scooby-Doo TV show. And by “reimagined” I mean “mangled and mutilated to fit the angry, narrow confines of social justice warrior ideology.”

    Since I don’t have cable, I can’t go out of my way to watch it for the sake of reviewing it, so let’s let The Critical Drinker take a whack at it:

    If that weren’t enough, let’s let Ryan George of Pitch Meeting also take his turn at bat:

    The original Scooby-Doo is hardly going to go down in the annals of television as a classic on the order of Hill Street Blues or I Love Lucy, but it was a solid, wholesome kid-vid TV show that made good use of its limited animation budgets to produce solid, fondly remembered shows that the franchise was strong enough to survive decades of tweaks (“with special guest Don Knotts”), soft reboots, a series of unlikely direct to video movies…

    …two “meh at best” live action movies, and even inflicting The Vile Abomination on American viewers.

    Even apart from the social justice idiocy, throwing away that legacy for derisive belittlement is just wrong. Moreover, these projects never seem to be profitable or even well-received (remember the disasterous Land of the Lost remake with Will Ferrell?). If you don’t treat the source material with a due amount of respect, all you’re doing pissing off generations of people that grew up watching the originals.

    This sort of thing is natural meat for The Critical Drinker, who delights in tearing into Social Justice crap. But the pointed Pitch Meeting takedown seems far more significant, as George has never been one to wade in culture war commentary.

    Velma seems to be the show that everyone hates.

    Tags: , , , , , , , ,
    Posted in Guns, Media Watch, Republicans, Social Justice Warriors, unions, video | 8 Comments »

    Power Back On After 60 Hours

    February 4th, 2023

    The power came on back here about 6:30 AM. Now I need to take a long hot shower after giving the water time to warm up, then go through the fridge and freezer to determine what gets thrown out.

    Expect slow and/or lazy blogging this weekend, followed by maybe a LinkSwarm on Monday on Monday, and then maybe a lessons learned post later in the week.

    Edited to add: And now it’s off again…

    And on again.

    And then off for a few minutes.

    And now (1:08 PM) it’s on again.

    It would be nice if Austin Energy could get this sorted out…

    Tags: , , , ,
    Posted in Austin, Texas | 9 Comments »

    « Older Entries
    Newer Entries »