A Ridiculously Brief Williamson County Election Update

March 3rd, 2014

Since I live in Williamson and have received a ton of flyers on local judicial races, I should probably get together some semi-coherent thoughts about the race and post them here.

Fortunately, Holly Hansen has already done the heavy lifting.

County Court at Law Judge Doug Arnold has been challenged by GOP newcomer Tallion Taylor (Taylor used to vote Democrat, but recently switched to the Republican party).

Three candidates have filed to replace retiring Williamson County Treasurer Vivian Wood: Leander City Councilwoman Michell Cantwell, Jerri Jones, and Ralph Pruyn. As I’ve previously written, Jones is an alleged Republican who publicly supported a Democrat for District Attorney in 2012.

Indeed, I emailed Taylor to see if he wanted to deny reports of formerly being a Democrat. He never replied.

And now the tl;dr recommendation from Holly:

Let me also state my skepticism of those who still view the Michael Morton case as a universal “get into office free” card. Yes, it was a miscarriage of justice. No, that doesn’t mean I’m going to ignore your past record of supporting Democrats or lack of conservative credentials to vote for you. In fact, from now on I’m going to vote against those using the case in their attack mailers just on general principle. That means you, Ryan Larson.

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A Random Assortment of Texas Statewide Race News

March 3rd, 2014

With primary voting upon us tomorrow, it looks like I’ve run out of campaign to cover. Here then is a quick, scatter-shot batch of snippets on various races:

  • Wendy Davis is super popular…just not in Texas. “27 percent of the money Davis raised in the last filing quarter came from donors outside Texas, compared to just 2 percent of Abbott’s total.”
  • In the Comptroller race, Glenn Hegar seems to have have racked up the lion’s share of conservative endorsements, and is also winning the money race over Harvey Hilderbran (who has mostly racked up the endorsements of business groups, newspapers, and “shill” groups like Steve Holtz’s “Conservative Republicans of Texas“). 2010 Gubernatorial hopeful Debra Medina is also polling strongly despite having raised relatively little money, I didn’t think she was ready for primetime in 2010, but Comptroller is probably a great spot for a Libertarian. I’d vote Hegar over Medina, but I’d vote both over Hilderbran.
  • The Agricultural Commissioner’s race is easier to narrow down with who not to vote for, namely J. Allen Carnes, who voted Democratic until 2012, and “donated to Texas Democrats Pete Gallego, Henry Cuellar, and Ciro Rodriguez.” Also who to vote against: Eric Opiela, AKA Joe Straus’ lawyer. By contrast, Sid Miller seems to have racked up an impressive list of endorsements.
  • In the Land Commissioner race, George P. Bush does have a primary opponent in David Watts, who has actually racked up a fair number of endorsements. Plus Paul Burka isn’t impressed with George P. Bush’s campaign (and Burka may even be right for a change).
  • Lt. Governor race roundup. if the Chronicle paywall won’t let you in, search for the first sentence on Google news. Here’s some damning-with-faint-praise for Todd Staples: “‘Staples becomes a plausible alternative if you don’t have Dewhurst in the race,’ Henson said. ‘My impression is that he is well-liked in the Capitol special-interest community.'” Ouch!
  • Here’s your biannual reminder that Texas mainstream media outlets almost always endorse the most liberal candidate.

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    Pete Sessions vs. Katrina Pierson: Super-Brief Race Update

    March 3rd, 2014

    I haven’t been covering the primary race between incumbent Pete Sessions and Tea Party favorite Katrina Pierson for a couple of reasons. First, it’s not my district. Second, when it comes to incumbent Republicans drifting too far left, Sessions (with an ACU rating of 97%) doesn’t even rank among the top 100. Even though I was on the other side of the battle over defunding ObamaCare. I didn’t regard inter-party tactical disagreement as a reason for excommunication.

    However, a lot of news has been popping up on the race:

  • First, Sarah Palin endorsed Pierson, which is a huge, huge boost for her. Unfortunately, it came fairly late in the primary season, making it difficult for Pierson to capitalize on it for fundraising. The fact that Pierson has also been endorsed by Freedomworks, Rafael Cruz and Instapundit Glenn Reynolds won’t hurt either.
  • Pierson rasied over $68,000 this year, which is not chicken feed, but is pretty low to take out an incumbent with over $1 million cash on hand.
  • Then it came to light that Sessions doesn’t actually live in the district:

  • But in the weirdest twist, Sheriff Joe Arpaio endorsed Pierson, then unendorsed her later the same day and endorsed Sessions, saying Pierson has misled him about Sessions being a supporter of illegal alien amnesty. (You would think Sheriff Joe would do a bit of research before offering an endorsement.)

    • Will the Arpaio kerfuffle blunt her momentum? Maybe, but Sessions more than 10-1 fundraising advantage will be a much steeper obstacle to overcome against an entrenched incumbent…

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    Steve Stockman is Not Getting The Job Done Against John Cornyn

    March 3rd, 2014

    Given Senator John Cornyn’s deviations from conservative orthodoxy, many Tea Party supporters were relieved when Rep. Steve Stockman finally stepped up to primary him at the last minute. Stockman was a solid conservative, and people hoped he could at least give Cornyn a run for his money.

    That hope proved short-lived.

    Stockman has run a very poor campaign. He has missed numerous campaign events. I would say his fundraising has been poor, except the most recent FEC report I have been able to find doesn’t show him having raised any funds at all. (This is not the first time Stockman has had problems with filling out FEC forms.) His missing-in-action campaign is a sharp contrast with Ted Cruz’s smart, disciplined underdog campaign in 2012.

    Other revelations about his past haven’t helped either. Records show that Stockman hasn’t voted in a primary in 10 years.

    Given the dysfunctional nature of the Stockman campaign, it’s not a surprise that Tea Party supporters have largely given up on him as well.

    I thought that Stockman got into the race too late to have real chance to beat Cornyn, but I didn’t expect him to do such a miserable job.

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Texas Attorney General’s Race: State of Play and Updates

    March 3rd, 2014

    In comparison to the Lt. Governor’s race, the Attorney General’s race is relatively straightforward: There’s a conservative favorite (State Senator Ken Paxton), the well-funded big business republican (State Senator Dan Branch), and a longshot (Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman). A recent poll shows Branch at 42%, Paxton at 38%, and Smitherman a distant third at 20%. But the further down the ballot you get, the less accurate polls tend to be, so take that with a grain of salt.

    Ken Paxton is a solid conservative that the majority of movement conservatives in the state have gotten behind (I’d guess that support is running about 85% among state conservatives compared to 15% for Smitherman). He’s also racked up an impressive list of conservative endorsements, including Texans for Fiscal Responsibility,

    And while Paxton hasn’t been formally endorsed by Ted Cruz, he is getting a lot of mileage out of the Cruz quote that he’s “a tireless conservative warrior.”

    By contrast, I haven’t heard a single conservative say they’re supporting state Representative Dan Branch, who is perceived as a RINO in the David Dewhurst mold (without the record of achievement) and an ally of Texas House Speaker Joe Straus. The representative of tony Highland Park, “his main support base appears to be establishment Republicans.” He’s a business favorite and has tapped extensive fundraising resources in the Metroplex. His attempt to rebrand himself as a Tea Party conservative is pretty laughable: Says the Houston Chronicle editorial board:

    a respected GOP state representative from Dallas whose moderate positions and pragmatic approaches to governance frequently align with those of Speaker Joe Straus. Running for attorney general, Branch is portraying himself as the most conservative candidate in the race (a laughable claim), a raging anti-Obaman, a tea-party firebrand and an anti-abortion crusader. We haven’t seen such an extreme re-branding effort since the late Phyllis Diller’s plastic surgeries.

    And that’s from the MSM. Most conservative activists I’ve talked too are considerably less kind…

    A Branch ad:

    A lot of conservatives supported Barry Smitherman‘s run for Railroad Commissioner, but support for his Attorney General run is pretty thin on the ground (David Bellow and some pro-life endorsements being notable exceptions). Red State’s Erick Erickson goes so far as to call Smitherman “an establishment tool.” I think that rather overstates things, but there’s a lot of sentiment that Smitherman has overstated his resume as a Harris County prosecutor, and has tried to move up the statewide ladder too far, too fast, with too thin a resume.

    A Smitherman ad:

    Whoever wins the Republican nomination will face (I kid you not) Sam Houston (a trial lawyer unrelated to the hero of San Jacinto, who lost a 2008 Supreme Court race) in the general election.

    Some race tidbits:

  • Wrangling over an unsuccessful Ken Paxton investment.
  • Here’s Smitherman’s attack site against Paxton. While it’s not quite as weak tea as the Chinese lawsuit bit Dewhurst tried to use against Cruz, the bag has still been seeped two or three times…
  • The man Smitherman wants to succeed as Attorney General is less than thrilled at his criticism of the way the state child support division is run. “As attorney general, I’ve elevated the Texas Child Support Division to number one in the entire nation. Under my leadership we’ve collected more than $28 billion in child support, but we also have achieved one the highest rankings in the nation for efficiency.”
  • Back in 2010, Smitherman was a big fan of smart meters.
  • Smitherman pays a blogger covering the race for consulting services. (Just for the record, I ain’t been paid nothin’ by nobody for political blogging, unless you count free soda and pizza at Ted Cruz headquarters after I endorsed him…)
  • Evidently Smitherman’s position on the death penalty isn’t quite as unwavering as he would lead you to believe.
  • Branch gets endorsed by the Houston Chronicle.

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    The Return of Johnny Nuance

    March 2nd, 2014

    So Russia is conducting a piecemeal invasion of Ukraine.

    And the American state department’s response?

    Ah, yes, “working with Russia.” I’m sure that has Putin quaking in his boots. How are we supposed to “work with” them? By helping them carry the loot back to Russia? Can you imagine George H. W. Bush threatening to “work with Iraq on Kuwait” after Saddam invaded?

    If Russia invades another country, will we work with them some more?

    I’m sure at this point, Putin must be quaking in his boots in fear at the thought of Kerry deploying more diplomacy to his tanks. Likewise, I’m sure the people of Ukraine are deeply grateful for those C-130s filled to the brim with diplomacy we’re sending…

    Given Kerry’s repeated threats of deploying yet more diplomacy to stop Putin, it’s time to break out Iowahawk’s classic Johnny Nuance, the story of a man fighting outlaws in the old west using only diplomacy:

    Johnny Nuance! Johnny Nuance!
    From the shores of Martha’s Vineyard he rode his horse out West,
    With a treaty in his holster and a medal on his chest,
    Bringing law and justice to a wild and violent land,
    Talking was his creed and sanctions were his brand!

    It goes about as well as you would expect…

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    Posted in Democrats, Foreign Policy | 1 Comment »

    Interview With Texas Lt. Governor Candidate Jerry Patterson

    March 1st, 2014

    Friday night, I was finally able to get an interview with Texas Land Commissioner and Lt. Governor candidate Jerry Patterson, which I’d been meaning to do for quite a while. Below is a pretty close transcription of the interview (or as close as I could make it with my 45 words-a-minute fingers).

    Lawrence Person: What do you see as current Lt. Governor David Dewhurst’s biggest mistakes in office?

    Jerry Patterson: His biggest mistake is not a mistake but a shortcoming, that being having no ability to lead and motivate both voters and members of the senate. We all make mistakes, but shortcomings are more serious than mistakes.

    Lawrence Person: Likewise, what qualities or policies do you think separate you from Dan Patrick and Todd Staples?

    Jerry Patterson: Policy-wise, there’s very little difference. Between me and Dan, my story is not going to change from day to day and venue to venue. I feel no compulsion to tell you what I think you want to hear to like me.

    As for Todd, I’m a little more of a risk-taker, I’m bolder, and I’m less consultant-driven.

    Lawrence Person: What, if any, procedural changes would you make in running the Texas state senate?

    Jerry Patterson: The first thing I’m going to do is roll the tape of the evening Wendy Davis carried out her filibuster, and make sure all the Democrats who helped encourage that riot are not in charge of committees.

    I will also make it easier for the Lt. Governor to recommit bills from one committee to another.

    Lawrence Person: The Lt. Governor has tremendous influence over the composition of the Legislative Budget Board. What specific background and qualities would you seek in those you would appoint to the board?

    Jerry Patterson: They need to be fiscal conservatives, and they need to be resistant to those who blow smoke into places you don’t usually see it, and they need to have those qualities on a consistent basis.

    Lawrence Person: How did the Concealed Handgun bill come about, and how hard was getting that passed?

    Jerry Patterson: It had been attempted several times before. I sponsored it in 1993, passed it, and Gov. [Ann] Richards vetoed it. But it wasn’t a real CHL bill, it was just a referendum on whether to pass a CHL bill. In 1995, we have a new Governor, George W. Bush, who won in part because he promised to sign a CHL bill if it came to his desk. In 1995, I was sole author of SB 60, the CHL bill. It was a difficult task. We had a lot of Democratic support, and a lot of Republican opposition. It was made more difficult when Selena [the Tejano signer] was shot and killed by a deranged woman in Corpus Christi. But I told wavering legislators I would campaign against them if they did not live up to their commitment. Then I had to deal with hostile points-of-order to kill the bill. I was the chair of the conference committee, and I hired parliamentarians with a meticulous knowledge of the rules to make sure I didn’t make any mistake that would allow opponents to overturn the bill with a point-of-order. I think the final vote in the senate was about 22-8. And that included five yeas who wanted to vote no, but knew their district wouldn’t be happy.

    Lawrence Person: What do you think are the most essential actions Texas needs to take to secure the border?

    Jerry Patterson: There are several. We have to first realize that this is a three-legged stool: border security, assimilation, and immigration reform. You cannot have border security without immigration reform, and you cannot have immigration reform without border security. We have to stop birthright citizenship, we have to stop this bilingual ballot nonsense. You know what my name is on the Spanish-language ballot?

    Lawrence Person: No, what?

    Jerry Patterson: It’s Jerry Patterson. We need to do what the GOP platform calls for: biometric ID card for non-residents, no amnesty, a guest worker program with no path to citizenship. We need to focus on coyotes, narcotraffickers, terrorists, felons. That’s where our resources should be used, not chasing kitchen help.

    Lawrence Person: Any final thought or message for BattleSwarm Blog readers?

    Jerry Patterson: I’ll always be honest with you, and I won’t change what I say to get your vote.

    Thanks to Jerry Patterson and his staff for taking the time to do the interview.

    I have another interview with Lt. Governor candidate Dan Patrick which, do to technical difficulties on my part, I’m still trying to complete. Once that’s done I’ll put that up as well.

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    Posted in Border Control, Elections, Guns, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »

    Texas Lt. Governor’s Race: State of Play and Update

    February 27th, 2014

    The Lt. Governor’s race presents plenty of irony, namely in that it features incumbent Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, whose lost the 2012 Senate race to Ted Cruz, and three statewide office holders, all running as staunch conservatives, who endorsed Dewhurst over Cruz in that race.

    Dewhurst’s strengths and weaknesses are the same he displayed in that race. On the plus side, he’s run and won high-profile statewide races, he’s Independently wealthy and thus can self-fund to an extent others can’t, and he helped govern Texas during a time our prosperity, job creation and fiscal discipline have been the envy of most states. On the negative side, conservatives have long had numerous gripes about Dewhurst, complaining that he gives too much senate power to minority Democrats and gives them too many committee chairs, and that he thwarts conservatives in many ways great and small. As I wrote at the time, “Dewhurst occupies that vast gray area between a RINO (think Arlen Specter before he went The Full Benedict) and a real movement conservative.” The 2012 Senate race also showed that Dewhurst is a remarkably poor debater and off-the-cuff speaker who does not seem to think well on his feet, and losing to Cruz damaged his political reputation. His social media outreach was poor during the Senate run, but seems to have improved for this race. As in the Senate race, Dewhurst has garnered the lion’s share of business group endorsements (with Staples second), and the clear majority of newspaper endorsements (hardly a plus for most conservatives).

    State Senator Dan Patrick has a solid conservative record, but also a bit of a reputation as both a hothead and (as a former sportscaster) a something of an intellectual lightweight who has been dinged by some for poor debate performances. (I did a phone interview with Patrick that may or may not see the light of day due to a technical malfunction; in my brief interview he seemed bright, articulate, and knowledgeable about the Lt. Governor’s role in managing the senate and staffing the Legislative Budget Board.) Patrick was widely seen as a foe of Dewhurst during the 2012 Senate race, but ended up endorsing him at the last minute. Patrick is widely perceived as the primary choice of many social conservatives, and was prominent in the fight for the anti-TSA groping bill (which he sponsored) and the anti-sanctuary cities bill. The fact that both Jerry Patterson and Todd Staples have been attacking him in ads suggests he is indeed in second place behind Dewhurst. He has has been endorsed by Texans for Fiscal Responsibility, Young Conservatives of Texas, several evangelical ministers, and the late Bum Philips (Patrick was a sportscaster during the Luv Ya Blue heyday of the Houston Oilers in the late 1970s and early 1980s).

    Jerry Patterson, the incumbent Land Commissioner, came into the race with the most buzz among and support among Texas conservative insiders, but that doesn’t seem to have translated into sufficient polling popularity with voters, with Patterson sitting in fourth place in the latest poll. Patterson gets a lot of credit for having written the bill that became the Concealed Handgun License law, and received an A+ rating from the NRA (Dewhurst, Patrick and Staples all received As). Several Texas conservatives I respect are firmly in the Patterson camp. Patterson has been endorsed by Dick Armey and Ron Paul.

    Todd Staples, the incumbent Agricultural Commissioner, comes in at third place in the most recent poll, well behind Dewhurst and Patrick, despite having raised the second most money in the race behind Dewhurst. Staples also has a reputation as a solid conservative, and as a state senator penned the state defense of marriage clause. At 50 he’s the youngest of the four candidates by a decade. He’s been stressing border security, on which he did some work from the Agriculture Department. Staples has been endorsed by Nolan Ryan. and some property rights groups.

    Are the polls accurate? Hard to say. At this point in the 2012 Senate race, people were predicting a runoff between Paul Sadler and Sean Hubbard on the Democratic side, and Hubbard ended up coming in fourth behind Addie Allen and the Grady Yarbrough juggernaut.

    Whoever wins the Republican runoff (which looks very likely at this point) will face Democratic State Senator Leticia Van de Putte in the general.

    Here is a debate between all four candidates:

    Now some video ads from all four candidates. Dewhurst:

    Patrick:

    Patterson:

    Staples:

    Now some race tidbits:

  • “Between Jan. 24 and Saturday, Dewhurst raised from others nearly $1.5 million — more than twice the amount drummed up in that period by the most successful of his competitors, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples. Staples raised $650,000.”
  • Some of Dewhurst’s trail lawyer fund are also kicking money into his anti-Dan Patrick PAC: “The anti-Patrick PAC, Texans for Accountability, received $45,000 from Beaumont’s Provost Umphrey law firm, and a combined $25,000 from two women who identified themselves as paralegals for the Houston-based Gallagher law firm, headed by Mike Gallagher, former president of the Texas Trial Lawyer’s Association.”
  • Chart of advertising buys per candidate in statewide races.
  • The North Texas Tea Party issues no endorsement in the race.
  • All four candidates appear at a forum in Sugar Land.
  • KUHF panel thinks it’s a runoff between David Dewhurst and Dan Patrick.
  • David Bellow endorses Patrick.
  • Jerry Patterson’s attacks on Patrick are amounting to very little. I think the possibility that a sports bar Patrick owned in Houston in the early 1980s might have included illegal aliens among the staff is hardly going to come as a shock to just about any Texan.
  • Speaking of Patrick, an anti-Patrick PAC can’t even get its facts straight.
  • The New York Times weighs in on the race. It’s pretty much what you would expect
  • Patrick evidently had an amusing gay marriage typo on his Twitter account.
  • A look at Patterson’s support among Second Amendment supporters.
  • Waco Tribune interviews Patterson.
  • Staples campaigns in Plano.
  • The Austin American Statesman endorses Dewhurst.

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    Texas Governor’s Race: State of Play and Update

    February 26th, 2014

    It’s a mere six days before the March 4 primary, and I haven’t covered the various statewide races nearly as well as I would have liked. (Maybe Ukraine will refrain from blowing up this week.) So I’ll try to catch up with some statewide race update, including a summary of the current state of play for those just tuning in, as well as some race tidbits (some of which are, alas, fairly musty). First up: The Governor’s Race.

    Gregg Abbott is a better, more focused candidate with a better organization in a deep red state. Abbott has both experience running successful, high-profile statewide races, has a solid record of achievement as Attorney General, and unquestioned conservative credentials. I’ve seen Abbott work a room in person, and he’s very good at it. He has all Rick Perry’s strengths and none of his weaknesses. He came into the campaign with a hfty warchest and continues to raise money at a record pace.

    Wendy Davis, by contrast, is a photogenic white woman whose main claim to fame is her filibuster in support of unlimited late-term abortions. Davis had a fairly indifferent record as a State Senator, and called herself a Republican back in the 1990s. She has been fundraising at a more-than-respectable clip, and pulling in impressive amounts of out-of-state liberal special interest money. She probably has more enthusiasm at the liberal grassroots level than any statewide top-of-the-ticket candidate since Ann Richards. Her campaign has frequently seemed very poorly organized, and indifferent or hostile to potentially friendly reporters. Her fibs about her life story and unconvincing flip-flops on guns and late-term abortions may have hurt here with swing voters, but don’t appear to have dampened the enthusiasm of her liberal base. She’s aided in her campaign by Battleground Texas, a well-funded attempt to “turn Texas blue” by registering more Democrats.

    Obviously, Abbott is going to win the Republican nomination, and, despite her many stumbles, Davis is going to win the Democratic nomination. Abbott is going to cream her in November.

    Now some race tidbits:

  • Abbott holds an 11 point leader over Davis in the latest polls.
  • Gregg Abbott raised $2.5 million in the latest filing period, and has $30 million cash on hand.
  • In case you missed it before: Abbott outraised Davis 3-1 in January. Davis’ claimed advantage comes from counting Battleground Texas totals as her own.
  • Speaking of BattleGround Texas, did they break the law?

  • Abbott and the Texas Republican Party aren’t taking Battleground Texas efforts lying down. “Abbott…has 50 paid staff members doing grass-roots outreach.”
  • Davis’ actual campaign finance report
  • Greg Abbott on ObamaCare.
  • Ted Nugent apologizes.
  • For all her walkback on late-term abortions, it’s still the pro-abortion crowd who is giving Wendy Davis the big bucks.
  • “Wendy Davis is no Ann Richards.” To be fair, Ann Richards wasn’t really Ann Richards either, but she was a whole lot better at faking it…
  • Davis gets a New York Times Magazine profile…
  • …which the hard left complains is insufficiently sensitive to radical feminist language demands.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas, video | No Comments »

    Pay-for-Play Endorsements Come to Williamson County

    February 25th, 2014

    Yesterday I received a copy of The Link Letter in the mail, touting certain Republican Primary candidates and carrying ads for them. You should take these “endorsements” with several grains of salt, since they are strictly pay for play; candidates pay for ads and get endorsed. Houston has had these paid “list” newsletter endorsements for a while, but this is the first time I’ve seen them in Williamson.

    The Link Letter is an advertising flyer, nothing more. Its endorsements should not sway you any more than any other advertisement might (which is to say, little to none).

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