Your Obligatory “Day Before the Election” Horserace Post

November 5th, 2018

Election day is tomorrow! So here’s a brief roundup of the state of play:

  • Here’s the way Real Clear Politics breaks down Senate races:

    They show North Dakota Democrat incumbent Heidi Heitkamp as gone, which already brings Republicans up to 50 seats with victories in Tennessee (likely) and Texas (even more likely).

    The races they have as tossups are:

    • Arizona: The late John McCain’s seat. I expect former fighter pilot and Republican Martha McSally to beat Kyrsten “Meth Lab of Democracy” Sinema based on the latter’s baggage and blunders, and the importance of border control to Arizona residents.
    • Florida: Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is in a very tough fight with Republican Governor Rick Scott, but Republican turnout seems to be surging. Keep in mind that in 2014, Scott beat the odious Charlie Crist by only 64,000 votes. It being Florida, it may not be decided until the recount.
    • Indiana: Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly (D), the last of the Stupak Block Flipper still in office, has been in a virtual tie with Republican challenger Mike Braun. Trump walloped Hillary by 19 points in 2016, while Donnelly managed to eek out 50.04% of the vote in the very Democrat-friendly year of 2012. I think he’s toast and Braun wins.
    • Missouri: Republican challenger Josh Hawley has lead polls against incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ever since the Kavanaugh vote in a state Trump won by 18 points in 2016. Stick a fork in her.
    • Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester should be in deep trouble in a state Trump won by 21 points, but polls show him with a small but sustained lead over challenger Matt Rosendale. Chalk this up as the toss-up Senate race Republicans are most likely to see slip away.
    • Nevada: Polls show Republican incumbent Dean Heller slightly behind challenger Jacky Rosen. See the mention of big crowds at Trump rallies further down in a state Hillary won by just over two points. Heller eked out a two point win in face of Obama’s big 2012, and I think he survives by the skin of his teeth this year as well.
    • West Virginia: You would think that Democratic incumbent Joe Manchin would be in deep trouble in a state where Trump walloped Hillary by 42 points, but he’s maintained a small but persistent lead over challenger Patrick Morrisey. The Last Blue Dog may survive 2018, but I suspect this one will go down to the wire.

    Any “Likely Democrat” races Republicans can pull an upset off in? Maybe New Jersey where, despite substantial leads, Democrats have been pouring last minute funds in to save indicted sleazebag Robert Menendez. But that’s a pretty high mountain for Republican challenger Bob Hugin to climb.

  • Vegas oddsmaker Wayne Allyn Root, who correctly predicted Trump’s upset win two years ago, similarly sees another GOP win in the offing:

    Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I’ll go out on a limb and disagree again.

    I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.

    Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.

    I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.

    Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.

    Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.

  • National Review‘s Jim Geraghty sees Democrats pulling off an extremely narrow win to take the House.
  • One of the seats he see’s flipping is the Texas 32nd Congressional District, currently held by Republican Pete Sessions. The district went very narrowly (1.9%) for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but went for Romney by over 15 points in 2012. I tend to think Sessions barely wins reelection, based on a strong economy, the long-time Republican nature of the district, and incumbency.
  • My prediction: Republicans keep the Senate, and we won’t actually know if they keep the House until most of the recounts are done.

    Willie Horton, Willie Horton

    November 4th, 2018

    Ann Althouse links a Washington Post piece that declares “Trump revives ‘Willie Horton’ tactic with ad linking illegal immigrant killer to Democrats” based on this Trump tweet containing a (NSFW) ad:

    What can we learn from this?

    1. GOP ads talking about illegal alien crime must be working, or the Post wouldn’t be complaining about them. Remember, the Democratic Media Complex hates any advertising that’s effective for Republicans, so they seek ways to stigmatize them to deter Republicans from using them. That’s why they turned “Swift Boating” into a verb, because the Swift Vote Veterans for Truth ads were so effective at turning John Kerry’s self-mythologizing “Reporting for Duty” facade against him.
    2. They’re doubly effective with migrant caravans filled with criminals making their way to the U.S. border and Democratic campaign staffers illegally diverting campaign money to help them. All of which helps tie into the “Jobs Not Mobs” theme of the midterms.

    3. That’s why Democrats hated the various Willie Horton ads, because they were effective at painting Michael Dukakis as soft on crime. In the modern era, Democrats are congenitally soft on crime, due to victimhood identity politics. That’s why canny, centrist Democratic politicians went out of their way to inoculate themselves by way tough stances on crime. Hence Bill Clinton’s “superpredators” and him leaving the campaign trail to oversee the execution of convicted cop killer Ricky Ray Rector in 1992. That effectiveness is why the Democrat Media Complex tried so hard to label Willie Horton ads as racist in order to discourage future Republicans from using similar ads against soft-on-crime Democrats. It’s important to note that while third party ads showed Horton, George H. W. Bush campaign’s own “Revolving Door” ad never mentioned Horton by name:

    1. Hence the need for “racist dog-whistle,” which means “Republicans have come up with an effective tactic, so we need to call it racist.”
    2. All of which explains why Democrats have resurrected the ghost of the still-living convicted murderer Willie Horton, who committed rape while given one of Dukakis’ ill-advised “weekend furloughs” from prison. But the question remains why any of them think this tactic would be effective, as the race it was an issue in was 30 years ago. Anyone who was of voting age during the original Willie Horton controversy is at least 48 years old now. Do they think invoking Willie Horton is going to change the mind of anyone who was around at that time? Why not decry Douglas Stringfellow or Teapot Dome while you’re at it?

    Democrats know they’re losing the crime and border control debates badly, and are desperate to keep Republicans from using the issue against them. Judging from the volume of direct mail advertising I get mentioning the issue, they’re failing badly.

    Beto’s Boners & Bungles

    November 3rd, 2018

    Pretty soon we won’t have Robert “Bobby” Francis O’Rourke (AKA “Beto”) to kick around anymore, so let’s do a roundup of all his campaign’s most recent missteps, shall we?

    First up, front and center, are the Project Veritas sting videos that have O’Rourke staffers on camera admitting they’re diverting campaign funds to transport illegal alien caravan members to the United States:

    I believe the technical term for that is “campaign finance fraud.” Unless you prefer the term “embezzlement.”

    (Also, is it just me, or is there a distinct like of activity in those shots from O’Rourke field headquarters. No phone-calling, no envelope-stuffing, just…kicking back and hanging out. Evidently having more money than any senate candidate ever doesn’t buy you motivated staffers…)

    Then there’s that New York Times piece that, instead of the now-standard hagiography, actually reported on how O’Rourke got to where he is today: wealthy and powerful relatives, and a healthy dose of political self-dealing:

    At a special City Council meeting in 2006, a billionaire real estate investor unveiled his vision for redeveloping downtown El Paso. To replace tenements and boarded-up buildings, he proposed restaurants, shops and an arts walk rivaling San Antonio’s River Walk.

    Representative Beto O’Rourke, one of hundreds attending, wasn’t exactly a disinterested party.

    Not only had he married the investor’s daughter, but as a member of City Council, he represented the targeted area, including a historic Mexican-American neighborhood.

    Calling downtown “one piece of El Paso that was missing on the road back to greatness,” Mr. O’Rourke, now a congressman and the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, voted to take the first step forward with the plan.

    Over the next two years, Mr. O’Rourke would defend the plan before angry barrio residents and vote to advance it. At other times, he would abstain. Business owners who opposed the plan accused Mr. O’Rourke of a conflict, citing the involvement of his father-in-law, the billionaire developer William D. Sanders.

    Snip.

    Mr. O’Rourke was perceived by many as siding with the moneyed elite against angry barrio residents, small business owners and even the Jesuit priests who ministered to the immigrant community at Sacred Heart Church.

    “Mr. O’Rourke was basically the pretty face of this very ugly plan against our most vulnerable neighborhoods,” said David Dorado Romo, a local historian who added that the episode had resurrected longstanding race and class divisions in the city.

    Barrio residents feared that they would lose their homes through eminent domain, and a city-funded branding study suggested that the residents of El Paso were perceived as “dirty” and “lazy.’’ Among some constituents, the hurt feelings have lingered.

    Naturally there was great shock among O’Rourke fans that NYT would dare do actual reporting on a Democrat a week before the election. As Brandon Morse notes: “This deal O’Rourke was a part of has all the hallmarks leftists hate. Here’s a rich white guy screwing over poor minorities in order to further enrich himself and his family. Yet, for the longest time, you couldn’t get a peep out of mainstream press outlets.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

    Finally, there’s a new Emereson College poll that purportedly shows Sen. Ted Cruz up by only three points. By now you should know the reply every poll result brings up: show me the crosstabs. They oversampled Democrats and women. As usual.

    Thanks to his fundraising, I expect O’Rourke to lose by less than the 16% Cruz beat Democrat Paul Sadler by in 2012, much less the 20 points Greg Abbott walloped Wendy Davis by in 2014.

    But lose he will.

    LinkSwarm for November 2, 2018

    November 2nd, 2018

    I already voted and the election is next week, so there is light at the end of the tunnel! And if political bloggers are already sick of this election season, just think how sick of it ordinary voters are. None of which will keep me from live-blogging/live-tweeting it election night…

  • October economic statistics: “250,000 Jobs Added, Wages Increased 3.1%.”
  • How Democrats’ Kavanaugh ambush destroyed their own momentum:

    Six weeks ago, Democrats were expecting a blue wave to rival the Republican victory of 2010, when the GOP picked up 63 House seats. Everything was in their favor. History—the party in power almost always loses seats. Money—Democrats continue to outraise Republicans by staggering amounts. The opposition—some 41 GOP House members retired, most from vulnerable districts where Donald Trump’s favorability is low. Democrats were even positioned to take over the Senate, despite defending 10 Trump-state seats.

    Democrats obliterated their own breaker in the space of two weeks with the ambush of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. The left, its protesters and its media allies demonstrated some of the vilest political tactics ever seen in Washington, with no regard for who or what they damaged or destroyed along the way—Christine Blasey Ford, committee rules, civility, Justice Kavanaugh himself, the Constitution. An uncharacteristically disgusted Sen. Lindsey Graham railed: “Boy, y’all want power. God, I hope you never get it!”

    A lot of voters suddenly agreed with that sentiment. The enormous enthusiasm gap closed almost overnight as conservative voters rallied to #JobsNotMobs. Even liberal prognosticators today forecast that Republicans will keep the Senate and Democrats will manage only a narrow majority in the House, if that. It’s always possible the polls are off, or that there is a last-minute bombshell. But it remains the case that the ascendant progressive movement blew an easy victory for Democrats.

  • Antisemetic hate crimes in New York are on the rise, yet “during the past 22 months, not one person caught or identified as the aggressor in an anti-Semitic hate crime has been associated with a far right-wing group.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • More facts about that “refugee caravan“:

    Over 270 individuals along the caravan route have criminal histories, including known gang membership. Those include a number of violent criminals – examples include aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, armed robbery, sexual assault on a child, and assault on a female. Mexican officials have also publicly stated that criminal groups have infiltrated the caravan. We also continue to see individuals from over 20 countries in this flow from countries such as Somalia, India, Haiti, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh.

    (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)

  • Georgia’s Democratic Candidate For Governor Calls For Banning AR-15s.” (Hat tip: Say Uncle.)
  • Are you ready for the Peak 2018 story? “Bomb Suspect Cesar Sayoc And Stormy Daniels Worked at the Same Strip Club.” I can only assume this is a viral marketing campaign for Florida Man: The TV Show.
  • Daniels, of course, not only had her lawsuit dismissed, but was ordered to pay President Trump’s legal fees. That may detour the Michael Avenatti for President juggernaut…
  • Giant Russian floating dry dock isn’t. It may or may not have damaged Amiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s only aircraft carrier (antiquated though it is) when it went down. Now the Russian Navy is in a world of hurt in the north because no other dry dock north of the Black Sea is capable of hosting either the Kuznetsov or many of Russia’s largest submarines. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • More reminders of just what sort of Administration Lightbringer McLegTingle ran:

  • President Trump slaps sanctions on Venezuela’s gold sector, denouncing the country as part of a “troika of tyranny” along with Cuba and Nicaragua. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Aww, no one wants to campaign with Bill Clinton anymore. “‘Inability to reckon with his sexual indiscretions’? Does the NYT use the phrase ‘sexual indiscretions’ when writing about other celebrities who’ve been accused of rape and sexual harassment?”
  • Workers walk out of Google in protest of their protecting sexual harassment among executives:

    Perhaps no company deserves to be destroyed by feminists, but if any company does, none deserves it more than Google. Having built the world’s most powerful search engine, the company then developed or purchased a series of other innovations — Gmail, YouTube, etc. After obtaining a hegemonic position in the online world, however, Google then inexplicably sold its corporate soul to “social justice” ideologues.

    The extent to which Google has been captured by left-wing totalitarians, and become an active agent of intellectual repression, became apparent last year after the company fired James Damore for writing an internal memo that criticized their “diversity” policies. Damore sued his former emoployer (“Google Lawsuit Exposes Stalinist Climate Protecting Anti-White, Anti-Male Bias,” Jan. 10) and Google was also subsequently sued by a former member of its “technology staffing management team” who said the company implemented illegal hiring quotas. Only female, black or Latino candidates were eligible for hiring at Google, the lawsuit by Arne Wilberg alleges, and recruiters were ordered to “purge entirely any applications by non-diverse employees.”

  • Texts from the Nevada Democratic Party: “F—K Trump. Stupid Republican retard. Trump is the anti-christ. Trump loves misery and hates Mexicans. Trump wants you to die. Trump wants to murder Mexicans.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • What the hell? “North Dakota Democrats Promote Message Telling Hunters They May Lose Their Licenses if They Vote.” (Hat tip: Greg Pollowitz in Twitter.)
  • “Trump declares his first national monument, honoring African-American troops.” (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • How The Guardian works: “Here are some slanted statistics and biased questions. Now let me know a good interview time so I can ask if you’ve stopped beating your wife yet.”
  • Whitey Bulger whacked.
  • In case it wasn’t clear from Black Mass, he was not a nice man.
  • In the UK, Huddersfield child gang rapists sentenced:

  • Roseanne without Roseanne=Roseanne without ratings.
  • Only one thing can save America: lots of yelling.
  • Game on.
  • How Dallas Democrats Commit Voter Fraud

    November 1st, 2018

    Step into the wayback machine for this one, as some of the stops go back decades.

    First read this piece from Jim Schutze from way back in 2002 about how then-Democratic State Rep. Terri Hodge would bring in mysterious courier bundles of absentee ballots on primary day while her assistant was awaiting trial for absentee ballot fraud.

    Now move forward to 2010 and this release from the U.S. Attorney General’s office from the FBI archives:

    DALLAS—Gladys E. Hodge, also known as “Terri Hodge,” who was to go on trial early next month on charges outlined in a 31-count indictment charging 14 public officials and their associates with various offenses related to a bribery and extortion scheme involving affordable housing developments in the Dallas area, has pleaded guilty, announced U.S. Attorney James T. Jacks of the Northern District of Texas. As a condition of her plea with the government, Hodge, who was elected to the Texas House of Representatives, District 100, in 1996, and re-elected to the same position in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2008, has agreed to resign her office and never seek or hold future public office.

    Hodge entered her guilty plea this morning, before U.S. District Judge Barbara M.G. Lynn, to fraud and false statements on an income tax return. She faces a maximum statutory sentence of three years in prison, a $100,000 fine, and restitution to the IRS.

    Result: A year behind bars in federal prison.

    Now fast forward to 2017. Who do you think Dallas Democrats have running a session called “Building Better Vote-by-Mail Results?” That’s right: Convicted felon Terri Hodge.

    Which brings us up to the present:

    Dallas Republicans are once again battling local Democrats to stop voter fraud. They were in court today seeking a temporary restraining order against Dallas County’s Democrat elections administrator Toni Pippins-Poole to delay opening of suspicious mail ballots, which was scheduled to begin at 7:00 a.m.

    Lawyers for the Dallas County Republican Party asked a judge to sequester about 2,400 mail ballots submitted for the November election that GOP ballot board members identified as questionable. They also flagged 20 mail ballots signed by disgraced ex-state representative Terri Hodge as an “assistant.”

    Hodge, a Democrat, pleaded guilty in 2010 to felony tax evasion in a Dallas bribery scandal and spent a year in prison. Hodge is prohibited from running for public office but continues to assist mail-ballot voters.

    A Democratic judge is hearing the case.

    For Dallas Democrats, not only is a felony conviction not enough to dissuade them from hiring someone to commit the same type of voting fraud they’ve been carrying out for over two decades, they actually hired the convicted felon to teach other activists her methods.

    That’s why it’s so important to get out and vote. You not only have to win, you have to win beyond the margin of Democrat fraud…

    Ted Cruz Wins Halloween

    October 31st, 2018

    Happy Halloween, everyone!

    Bombshell!

    October 31st, 2018

    If your liberal friends are wondering why no one trusts the mainstream media anymore, show them this video:

    If the boy cries wolf a thousand times, he can’t blame the villagers if they just tune him out entirely…

    I Use Facts and Logic on Popehat. Result: Blocked.

    October 30th, 2018

    I’m on quite a winning streak with Twitter this week.

    Ken White, AKA Popehat, is a lawyer with some experience in First Amendment cases, and to which I’ve linked from time to time. Unfortunately, he seems to have come down with a bad case of Trump Derangement Syndrome, attacking not only Trump, but other modern liberal hate objects like Scott Adams (who dares to explain that Trump isn’t a crazy buffoon, but someone using well-honed persuasion techniques to achieve desired goals) and Jordan Petersen.

    Front and center in the discussion: the idea that President Donald Trump is, despite considerably countervailing evidence, a raging anti-Semite.

    Result:

    Strange, and interesting, that both Simon and White blocked me for politely challenging prevailing, fact-free liberal beliefs about President Trump, Israel, and Jews, as though I were attacking not falsifiable assertions to be debated with reason and logic, but deeply held religious dogma.

    Interestingly, here’s another quote from that same Scott Adams piece I linked at the beginning of the exchange:

    When people have actual reasons for disagreeing with you, they offer those reasons without hesitation. Strangers on social media will cheerfully check your facts, your logic, and your assumptions. But when you start seeing ad hominem attacks that offer no reasons at all, that might be a sign that people in the mass hysteria bubble don’t understand what is wrong with your point of view except that it sounds more sensible than their own.”

    Numerous prominent liberals have gone to desperate, ridiculous and distasteful lengths to tie President Trump to the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting, despite the fact that the antisemitic nutjob was extremely vocal about his own hatred for Trump. Part of it may simply be the MSM’s painfully obvious need to spin every news story as chance to slam Trump. Part of it may be liberal’s increasing electoral desperation that despite two years of throwing everything they had at Trump and the Republican Party, their expected “blue wave” wave has been reduced to, at best, a tiny splash and Republicans will still control most or all of the federal government for the next two years. And part of it may be that, with Kanye West, #WalkAway and #Blexit, their repeated attempts to smear Trump as a racist appear to have backfired big time, so they’re now desperate to cling to their remaining outdated smears against Trump.

    But even with all that, the oversized reactions I got from two very different Twitter personalities on the same issue (Trump, Jews, and Israel) suggests some sort of deeper issue at work.

    Here’s another explanation from Bruce Hayden, one of Ann Althouse’s commenters:

    It all revolves around the reality that Jews primarily fund the antisemitic party, the Democrats, and their candidates. They very likely, anymore, provide more funding than any other source. Jews also provide a significant amount of the top leadership of the Democratic Party (averaging maybe 10% of the Senate for some time, including such notables as Schumer, Feinstein, and Sanders), as well as being its intellectual leaders. [Some historical political comparison between Jews and Mormons not relevant to the current point snipped.]

    Jews, for the most part, in this country, face significant cognitive dissonance with this Faustian bargain that they have made with the Democratic Party. Cognitive dissonance just like we are seeing right now in the desperate attempts to pin the shootings at the PA Synagogue yesterday on Trump and the Republicans, trying to rewrite the reality that this shooter, as well as the perpetrators of almost all antisemitic hate crimes in this country, are leftists, and tied to the Democrats. The Dems can’t afford to lose them financially, but need the votes of the most antisemitic elements of society. You hear this in the ever more outrageous conspiracy theories Jewish Democrats seem to use among themselves to justify continuing to belong to and support the antisemitic party. For example, bring up conservative and Christian support for Israel, and you immediately hear about the Rapture, some Christian Evangelical thing that I only hear about from Jewish Democrats. The reality is much simpler – Jesus, his family, Disciples, etc, were all relatively devout Jews living in and around modern day Israel, which the Bible tells us is the Jewish Promised Land.

    Add to that the fact that the core of the Democratic Party’s young activist base seem to be reflexively pro-Palestinian and thus virulently anti-Israel, and the parameters of American Jewery’s political problems begin to emerge. In places like New York and Los Angeles, to be a good Jew is to be a liberal Democrat, but to be a good liberal Democrat it is required that you hate Israel. This is a circle not easily squared.

    It will be interesting to see if, after next week’s election, defeat will temper Democrats’ Trump Derangement Syndrome, or only make it all the more acute.

    David Simon Makes False Statement. I Correct Him. Result: Blocked.

    October 29th, 2018

    While I’ve long admired the work of David Simon (Homicide: A Year on the Killing Streets, The Corner, The Wire, etc.), he posted something on Twitter that was not only wrong, but an exact inversion of the truth, contending that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu “intervened” in U.S. politics, when in fact it was the Obama Administration that blatantly intervened in Israeli politics in an attempt to defeat Netanyahu.

    So the following Twitter thread ensued:

    Result:

    No wonder our liberal media elites are constantly blind-sided by unexpected events, if they keep constructing reality bubbles around themselves to keep from having to deal with unpleasant facts about the world that run counter to their ideology.

    Austin Boil Notice Lifted

    October 28th, 2018

    Good news, everyone!

    Austin Water lifted the boil water notice on Oct. 28, 2018. Customers no longer need to boil water used for drinking, cooking and making ice. Water quality testing submitted to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has confirmed that tap water meets all regulatory standards and is safe for human consumption.

    How do I know the water is safe?

    Austin Water has worked closely with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and has followed federal and state laws for rescinding a Boil Water Notice. Microbiological testing has been negative and water disinfection levels are within state-required standards. This also includes meeting adequate water pressure requirements in the distribution system.

    Do I need to flush the pipes in my home?

    No, it is not necessary or required to flush the pipes in your home. Water has continued to circulate in the distribution system during the Boil Water Notice. Water used for laundry, showering, or boiling for consumption has created enough flushing effect for most homes. There should be no need to flush water from hot water heaters, irrigation systems, showers, clothes washing machines or outdoor faucets.

    If you choose to flush water from your pipes, please limit the amount of water you use. We recommend following Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guidelines that suggest flushing for two minutes.

    What steps do I need to take for my refrigerator water dispenser and ice maker?

    We recommend drawing and discarding at least one quart of water from your refrigerator water dispenser before drinking. Automatic ice makers should be emptied of any ice created during the boil water order; allow the machine to make new ice and discard any ice produced during the next 24 hours.

    What are the procedures for medical, dental, and food service establishments?

    Medical, dental and food service establishments should contact Austin Public Health at 512-972-5000 or visit http://www.austintexas.gov/department/health for specific guidance.

    Our short regional inconvenience is finally over…