So say the tea leaves from early results. If it holds up, that would be pretty big (and good) news, especially since it would slow Erdogan’s attempts to fully Islamize Turkey, as well as thwart his attempt to change the constitution to give himself more power. The pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party is also on track to surpass the 10% voting threshold for representation, which is also good news.
Erdogan’s Islamist A.K.P. to Lose Majority?
June 7th, 2015LinkSwarm for June 5, 2015
June 5th, 2015Another Friday, another LinkSwarm!
Rick Perry is in the Presidential Race
June 4th, 2015Former Texas Governor Rick Perry has joined the 2016 Presidential race and has a website up.
As longtime governor of the most economically successful state in the union, Perry should be a serious Presidential contender, especially since he has a more impressive (and recent) story to tell than Jeb Bush.
The problem, of course, is his poor showing in the 2012 Presidential race, which included a nationally televised “brain freeze” due to him being hopped up on goofballs following back surgery. I thought Perry was the most viable conservative candidate in the race in 2012, for all the good that did either of us. That does not appear to be the case this time around, and my choice for President right now would probably be Ted Cruz first and Scott Walker second.
Cruz, Walker and Marco Rubio all make the case for Perry more difficult. All outflank Perry on the right in ways that Huckabee and Santorum don’t, and Cruz in particular cuts into Perry’s fundraising base.
So while Perry should be a serious candidate, he has a much tougher row to hoe than he did in 2012…and he lost in 2012. Maybe he’s counting on the GOP’s well-known “next time around is the charm” bias (see Reagan, Bush41, Dole, McCain, and Romney), but I don’t think he did well enough in 2012 to have that sort of cachet.
Perry is a tough and tenacious campaigner (though probably not as indefatigable as Cruz), so it’s probably unwise to count him out entirely. Still, he looks to be an even longer shot in 2016 than he was in 2012.
Hillary So Old…
June 4th, 2015Another Twitter hashtag I had some fun with:
#HillarySoOld she remembers not letting Benjamin Franklin ask any questions at her press conference.
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she still remembers when a big financial score was just 30 pieces of silver
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
See, you missed an opportunity here to use "the Black Speech of Mordor" @TheMorningSpew
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she shoved Kate Winslet aside for a place in the lifeboat.
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she's still gripping about Benedict Arnold gypping her out of her commission for the West Point plans.
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she demanded 10% of Teapot Dome
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she put down her knitting just long enough to soak a handkerchief with Danton's blood.
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
#HillarySoOld she demanded the actors get back on stage and finish My American Cousin.
— BattleSwarm (@BattleSwarmBlog) June 4, 2015
Greece to Receive It’s Final Final Final Final Final Final Final Offer
June 3rd, 2015Looks like all of Greece’s creditors have finally decided it’s put up or shut up time for reform. “Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is expected to face demands for tough reforms of Greece’s pension system, labor laws and other areas, as well as creditors’ insistence on painful budget measures to ensure that Greece runs a fiscal surplus before interest.”
At this point Greece seems completely and utterly broke, unless there’s more upfront money in that still unsigned Russian pipeline deal than reports indicate (doubtful, given Russia’s own financial straits), or Tsipras finds yet another hidden money reserve to tap (“We can can pay pensions from the children’s bone marrow fund!”). So despite Tsipras’ insistence that they be allowed to keep spending other people’s money on their bankrupt welfare state, this time the jig may finally, finally, really, we mean it this time, for sure, be up.
Here’s a piece that explains in terms of game theory why Tsipras overplayed his weak hand:
Now, as long as the EU keeps Greece in the Eurozone then the Tsipras administration will find itself forced to either exit the Eurozone or apply the austerity it promised to end. Not only would such an outcome send a clear signal to other Eurozone nations that exiting was foolhardy, it would also indicate that radical, nationalist, anti-establishment and anti-austerity parties cannot deliver on their promises.
The EU won’t force Greece to exit the Eurozone but it won’t offer anything to keep Syriza in power, either. The EU simply needs to keep negotiating without offering anything but strict compliance with what was already agreed upon, which is continued austerity in return for loans. In effect, to use a sports analogy, the EU just needs to “run out the clock.” In the end, it appears that Tsipras will either be forced out of office or forced to break up his coalition and form a new government with the mainstream parties, the outcome that EU and Germany have been angling for all along.
(Though make no mistake: that “primary surplus” was always illusory.)
A few more Greek debt crisis links:
Texas Legalizes Medical Cannabis Oil
June 2nd, 2015This was one small story in the tidal wave of session-ending bills, but Texas has now legalized medical cannabis oil.
“Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation Monday legalizing low-THC cannabis oils as treatment for certain medical conditions.
The Texas Compassionate Use Act from state Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, will legalize oils containing CBD, a non-euphoric component of marijuana known to treat epilepsy and other chronic medical conditions. The state will regulate and distribute the oils to patients whose symptoms have not responded to federally approved medication.
I’m a “legalize it, regulate it, tax it” sort of guy, but this is a good first step in reducing legitimate suffering without engaging in the farce that is California’s “medical” marijuana industry. “Yeah, I have a medical condition I’m suffering from! I’m not high right now!”
Old News About Old News
June 2nd, 2015Don’t know how I missed this, but Wendy Davis was fined $5,000 for campaign violations. Mind you, these were campaign violations from her 2012 state senate race.
Davis’ personal financial documents for 2010 and 2011 did not properly indicate that her law partner, Brian Newby, was a registered lobbyist. The firm’s unpaid executive director, Marcy Weldin Foster, was also a registered lobbyist in 2011, and that was not disclosed. The commission found Davis received fees for services from her own firm and another that she worked for “of counsel,” Cantey Hanger, in 2010 and 2011. Both firms paid Newby as a lobbyist, and Cantey Hanger paid Foster as a lobbyist.
The actual ethics judgment can be read here.
Maybe she’s auditioning to be on Hillary’s campaign team…
Campus Carry Headed to Abbott’s Desk
June 1st, 2015Senate Bill 11, the campus carry bill sponsored by Sen. Brian Birdwell, has passed the Texas House. It had already passed the Senate earlier, so now it’s headed to the desk of Governor Greg Abbott, who has promised to sign it. The only downside is that it doesn’t take effect until August 1, 2016.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Abbott signs both the campus carry and open carry bills today.
Open Carry Headed to Governor Abbott’s Desk
May 29th, 2015Open Carry has passed both the House and Senate. It’s now headed to the desk of Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who has said he’ll sign it.
“House Bill 910 [warning: 46 page PDF] from state Rep. Larry Phillips, R-Sherman, would allow license-holders to carry handguns openly in a hip or shoulder holster, changing current law requiring that such weapons be concealed.” The “cop stop” amendment has evidently been stripped from the final bill.