Karl Rove: Why Obama Will Lose in 2012

June 23rd, 2011

While hardly a disinterested observer, Karl Rove is far from an untutored one, and he offers up some compelling reasons why Obama will lose in 2012. Four, to be precise:

  • The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day.
  • Key voter groups have soured on him.
  • He’s defending unpopular policies.
  • And he’s made bad strategic decisions.
  • The second point is the one he offers the most meat in terms of polling analysis. And the fourth is Obama’s decision to abandon Presidential distance and starting campaiging for reelection early.

    Read the whole thing.

    LinkSwarm for June 22, 2011

    June 22nd, 2011

    The big news around Austin is that it actually rained last night, meaning our trees and lawns won’t die, fall over and blow away like so many tumbleweeds. At least not this week.

  • Another fascinating Michael Totten piece, this one interviewing Palestinians in Jerusalem.
  • Having solved all other problems, Sen. Judith Zaffirini (D-Larado) decides to tackle Texas’ most-pressing need: A week-long statewide celebration of just how awesome Sen. Judith Zaffirini is.
  • Want to call in an airstrike against the Taliban? There’s an app for that.
  • Over at NRO, Matt Mackowiak says this is Rick Perry’s moment.
  • Yelena Bonner, Andrei Sakharov’s widow and a human right campaigner in her own right, died over the weekend at 89.
  • Plus Rich Lowry weighs in on Perry’s “Uncompassionate Conservatism”.
  • Michael Williams puts up his official statement on why he switched to the a congressional race. He also says “In only a week, we have been able to secure over $250,000 in contributions and pledges,” which is a seriously good start for a House race. His website also sports his snazzy new bow-tie logo.
  • The Texas Tribune’s insiders list puts up a poll of 2012 and 2014 race favorites. Use grains of salt as instructed by your spin doctor.
  • Dallas ISD spent $86,000 on Chick-Fil-A, proving not only that administration is wasteful, but that they have bad taste to boot.
  • So far, Jon Huntsman’s campaign is making Newt Gingrich’s look better by comparison.
  • Ted Cruz Picks Up Two More Endorsements

    June 21st, 2011

    The Ted Cruz winning streak continues, with two more key endorsements, namely Peggy Venable, Texas State Director for Americans for Prosperity, and Ernie Angelo, former RNC Committeeman.

    Cruz has easily lapped his opponents in the endorsement race. Other than Roger Williams’ endorsement by former President George H. W. Bush, and the departed Michael Williams’ endorsement by Jim DeMint, I can’t think of a single high-profile endorsement for any other candidate. I don’t think Tom Leppert’s handful of pastors really counts (though getting a max donation from Roger Staubach certainly didn’t hurt).

    Key endorsements aren’t worth as much winning the fundraising race, but they’re not chopped liver either. The fact that the Cruz campaign has rolled these out at a regular rate of a couple every week suggests to me that he has a fair number in his pocket, and wants to pace them out.

    Rick Perry Speech Gets Rave Reviews at the Republican Leadership Conference (with video)

    June 20th, 2011

    Saturday Rick Perry gave his speech to the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, and he’s getting lots of rave reviews, further fueling speculation that he’ll make a Presidential run:

  • Here’s one from San Antonio.
  • Here’s one from the Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • Even the Statesman piece is mostly respectful.
  • He’s even attracting notice as far away as London, in the pages of England’s leading lefty newspaper, The Guardian.
  • Jay Root of the Texas Tribune puts in his two cents.
  • Carl M. Cannon on Real Clear Politics: “When he finished, the crowd rose to its feet and — in the loudest and most spontaneous demonstration of the three-day meeting — broke into a clapping chant, “‘Run, Rick, run! Run, Rick, run!'”
  • Roger Kimball praises his truth telling: “Conservatives do not win elections by pretending to be liberals.”
  • Reuters says he sounds like a candidate.
  • Perry aides say he’s still several weeks away from deciding.
  • You can judge the speech for yourself:

    You can see why liberals, in their frustration and inability to lay a glove on him, call him “Governor Goodhair”: He looks a lot younger than his actual age of 61.

    Other Perry news (several from Iconoclast’s weekend roundup:

  • Deroy Murdock is urging Perry to run.
  • Over at Real Clear Politics, Jonathan Gurwitz thinks he’s perfectly positioned to do so.
  • The Wall Street journal on Perry’s first 100 days.
  • Finally, just because this is a good place to stick it, here’s The Dallas Morning News on 50 things you need to know about Rick Perry.
  • Michael Williams Makes His Congressional Run Official

    June 18th, 2011

    “Former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams announced Friday night that he will run for the new U.S. House District 33 — which stretches from Arlington to Parker County — instead of the U.S. Senate.”

    This move has been in the works for a couple of weeks now, but it’s good to see it made official. (Though he still needs to update his web page.)

    The Washington Post Discovers Ted Cruz

    June 17th, 2011

    Washington Post writer Aaron Blake pays serious attention to Ted Cruz, and his role as Tea Party favorite. It’s a decent write-up for an out-of-state MSM outlet playing catch-up, but there are several statements about which I have at least some minor quibbles.

    For example, take this sentence

    That’s because he’s emerging as a potential top-tier candidate in the Lone Star state race, posing a real tea party threat to better-funded candidates in what should be one of the most expensive primary races in the country.

    There’s two things wrong with that sentence:

    1. Cruz isn’t “a potential top-tier candidate,” he’s arguably already the frontrunner.
    2. Saying that he’s “posing a real tea party threat to better-funded candidates” suggests that there are, in fact, better-funded candidates. Leppert only has more money on hand thanks to a $1.6 million loan (discounting loans, in Q1 Leppert pulled in slightly over $1 million, and Cruz pulled in slightly under $1 million), and even then the rest of Leppert’s fundraising relied heavily on max contributions from a limited number of Dallas-area donors. So Cruz is about as well-funded as anyone in the race right now. (Would Lt. Governor David Dewhurst change that if he jumped into the race? If he really wanted to commit a substantial portion of his personal fortune (consistently rumored, without verifiable attribution, to be around $200 million), yes it would.)

    Likewise his suggestion that Leppert is one of the “big boys” (outside of Dallas, his profile is no bigger than Cruz’s) seems misguided.

    Then there’s this:

    Dewhurst is the prohibitive favorite if he gets in, and Leppert has made a big splash early with his fundraising. But many conservatives aren’t waiting for Dewhurst—choosing instead to rally around Cruz.

    I think “prohibitive favorite” overstates the case a bit (I would use “formidable”), but the idea that conservatives have ever “waited” on Dewhurst is off-base.

    As so many other Republican politicians do, Dewhurst occupies that vast gray area between a RINO (think Arlen Specter before he went The Full Benedict) and a real movement conservative. The phrase “a self-described ‘George Bush Republican'” appears, unsourced, in his Wikipedia entry (and thus is automatically suspect), and sums up the feelings of many conservatives towards Dewhurst. He ran as a conservative, and mostly governed as a conservative, but every now and then he would go off on Big Government tangents that would infuriate proponents of limited government. Despite this, outside the state, Dewhurst is regarded as something of an “arch-conservative” for shepherding through the (constitutionally-required) 2003 redistricting.

    I wouldn’t go so far as to compare him to Charlie Crist (as some have), but there’s been real dissatisfaction with Dewhurst among movement conservatives, and it came to the fore with this year’s legislative sessions, where, despite having controlling majorities in both House and Senate, conservative Republicans found their agenda being thwarted in many ways great and small by Dewhurst in the Senate and Speaker Joe Straus in the House. Hence state senator (and possible U.S. Senate candidate) Dan Patrick’s lashing out at Dewhurst for thwarting his anti-TSA goping bill. Dewhurst managed to get the big things done (i.e., getting a budget passed without a tax hike), but there’s a sense among conservatives that he could have gotten a lot more conservative bills passed if he really wanted to, and that he “left money on the table” in the game of legislative poker by compromising when he didn’t have to

    So it’s not at all surprising that Dewhurst is viewed as a stanch conservative when viewed from inside the Beltway; by Washington, D.C. standards he is. But there’s a widespread sense among Texas conservatives that they should be able to elect a full-bore movement conservative to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, and that David Dewhurst isn’t that guy. There was a good deal of debate over whether Ted Cruz or Michael Williams was the preferred choice; with Williams getting out of the race to run for a House seat, the issue has been resolved in Cruz’s favor, as indicated by his impressive array of endorsements.

    Still, those quibbles aside, the WaPo piece is a pretty solid look at Cruz, and is well worth reading for those following the Texas Senate Race.

    (In the future, Brooks might want to run this sort of piece by Jennifer Rubin, who has a lot better grasp of the nuances of conservative politics than most MSM observers.)

    LinkSwarm for June 16, 2011

    June 16th, 2011

    Here in Austin it’s suppose to hit 103º for the rest of the week. Insert your own “hot news” related pun here.

    Some links:

  • Paul Burka’s list of best and worst state legislators is now out. Golly, what do you know? Every entry in the worst of list is a Republican? As the Church Lady is wont to say, “How Con-VEN-ient!”
  • The Texas Tribune insiders offer up their own best and worsts lists. Sen. Wendy “I’m going to force a special session, ensuring that we get our asses kicked by Republicans even harder than we would have otherwise” Davis (D-Ft. Worth) shows up on both lists…
  • Some analysts believe that our current debt crisis (including unfunded liabilities) is already worse than Greece’s crisis
  • Texas Senate passes anti-Sanctuary Cities legislation.
  • This Hendrik Hertzberg New Yorker piece on Rick Perry sounds exactly like you would expect a piece on Rick Perry by a former speechwriter for Jimmy Carter to sound. I would say he buys his smug by the pallet-load from Sam’s, but since the nearest Sam’s Club to Manhattan is in Secaucus, NJ, and we know no self-respecting liberal would think of crossing the Hudson for so crass a purpose as saving money, no doubt it’s hand-crafted artisan smug bought from a tiny, independent smug boutique down in the Village. Oh, and he’s wrong about Cameron Todd Willingham as well, since the real facts show that he was indeed guilty of burning his own two small children to death.
  • Bill Murchison says that Perry would make a good Presidential candidate, but maybe not the best. (Hey Bill, whatever happened to the Landrum Society? It’s been a long time since I received word of their get-togethers…)
  • Texas Senate Race Updates for June 15, 2011

    June 15th, 2011

    A few Senate race updates. Ted Cruz is turning a very good week into a very good month:

  • First off, Cruz gets some serious love from George Will.
  • Cruz also appeared on Fox Business News:

  • The Houston Chronicle rounds up news of Cruz’s recent successes.
  • Did you know that Tom Leppert compared himself to Obama, and his city-owned hotel plan to the stimulus, to a group of Young Democrats in 2009? He also answered a questionnaire for them during his Mayoral campaign.
  • A little bird passed me the flyer for a Michael Williams fundraising event for his Congressional campaign today at noon at The Coronado Club in Houston. Word is that he’s waiting until the District 33 lines are finalized by the legislature before officially dropping his Senatorial bid.
  • Roger Williams will address a Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans this weekend. As will Michael Williams (assuming he doesn’t drop out as part of refocusing on that Congressional campaign). As will Rick Perry. Hmmm, seems like quite the event. I may need to go next year, since it’s closer and cheaper than CPAC. Plus New Orleans beats the hell out of DC any day…
  • In Which I Come Perilously Close to Defending Lloyd Doggett

    June 14th, 2011

    Paul Burka has a post up in which he basically makes two arguments:

    1. Republicans are trying to Gerrymander white Democrats out of Congress; and
    2. “Almost no one has done as much damage to the Democratic cause” in Texas as Lloyd Doggett.

    He is mistaken, to differing degrees, in both beliefs.

    As for the first, Republicans are trying to Gerrymander as many Democrats as possible out of their congressional seats, white, black, Hispanic or purple, just as Democrats ruthlessly Gerrymandered Republicans out of congressional seats when they had control of redistricting. (Remember, Texas never had as many as three Republicans serving in the U.S. House of Representatives at the same time until James M. Collins joined George H. W. Bush and Bob Price in 1969, despite Texas voters preferring Republican Presidential candidates in 1928, 1952, and 1956.) It’s just that the Voting Rights Act makes it so much easier to do it against white Democrats than minority Democrats.

    As for the second, anyone who has been reading this blog for any appreciable length of time should realize that I have no particular fondness for Rep. Doggett. However, laying the lion’s share of the Democratic Party’s precipitous decline in Texas at the feet of Doggett’s unsuccessful Senate campaign is both misguided and deeply ahistorical.

    First of all, it was a lot less obvious in 1984 that Doggett was too liberal to win (though he was) than the fact that nobody was going to beat Phil Gramm. After Democrats threw him off the House Budget Committee for supporting the Kemp-Roth tax cuts and co-sponsoring the Gramm-Latta budget reconciliation bill, Gramm resigned from his House seat and ran for it again as a Republican, winning overwhelmingly and turning himself into a folk hero for doing so. In the Republican primary he creamed Robert Mosbacher, Jr. and Ron Paul, and then thumped Doggett by 900,000 votes. Nobody was going to beat Gramm that year, even if Kent Hance had managed to defeat Doggett. And remember that after losing to Doggett in the Democratic Primary, Hance switched to the Republican Party the very next year. Even back then, it was apparent that conservatives had no future in the Democratic Party.

    Further, fingering Doggett as the cause of the Texas Democratic Party’s decline ignores the pronounced decline in the fortunes of the Democratic Party in every state south of the Mason-Dixon line over the last 32 years, as the so-called “Reagan Democrats” have fled the party in droves in both the South and Midwest thanks to its unwavering drive for bigger government and higher taxes. That can be laid at Doggett’s feet only insofar as he was one of several hundred Democratic elites pushing their party relentlessly left, no matter the electoral cost.

    And as for Burka’s starting that “How could [Doggett] have had so little self-awareness as to not know that he had was too liberal to win a statewide race?”, two points:

  • There’s a reason they have elections: you never know with 100% surety how they’ll turn out until they actually occur. Remember the infamous Newsweek poll that had Walter Mondale leading Reagan by 18 points right after the Democratic National Convention? Here’s another way to ask the question: “Shouldn’t Bill Clinton have known that Bush was invulnerable when he got into the Presidential race in 1991?” Nor did Doggett’s liberalism keep him from being elected to the Texas Supreme Court in 1988.
  • Second, not recognizing that Democrats have become too liberal for the general electorate is by no means limited to Doggett; indeed, it is arguably the defining characteristic of the modern Democratic Party. For years they’ve been listening to the likes of John P. Judis and Ruy Teixeira proclaiming them the country’s “natural majority party,” and there was no shortage of Democratic triumphalism confidently predicting how the Republican Party was “finished” after the 2008 election, and how well Democrats were going to do in 2010 once voters realized how awesome ObamaCare was. The comforting, anesthetizing Liberal Reality Bubble conspires to let them continually “get high on their own supply,” managing to convince themselves that America the Liberal is just around the corner. Even today, even in Texas: just look at all those members of the statewise MSM lamenting that Republicans are actually following the voting public’s wishes by shrinking state government rather than listening to them and their liberal friends and raising taxes.
  • There are numerous reasons why the Texas Democratic Party has gone from the overwhelming majority party in Texas to a rump minority party, the biggest one being that their misguided policies of big government liberalism are objectively wrong, financially ruinous and extremely unpopular. But Doggett is only an outstanding exemplar of the problem, not the cause of it.

    (PS: Also remember that in 1992, Burka was blaming the Texas Democratic Party’s decline on Bill Clinton’s unwillingness to seriously contest the state against Bush41.)

    Texas Senate Race Updates for June 12, 2011

    June 12th, 2011

    Another roundup of Texas Senate race news:

  • Here is the video for the Republican Senatorial candidate forum I attended Wednesday:

  • And here’s the follow-up Q&A session they’re not showing on KRLU:

  • Here’s the Statesmen‘s report on the forum.
  • And here’s a report on the Forum from Miss Lizaface, a blogger I am unfamiliar with (linked from Texas Iconoclast).
  • The Fort Worth Star-Telegram‘s J. R. Labbe is shocked, shocked that all the contenders for the Republican Senate nomination at the forum sounded like Republicans rather than those “courageous” tax-hikers the liberal media is always carrying water for.
  • You have to admire the pithy concision of this line: “State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, would be hard to beat in a bid for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released today by state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston.” Iconoclast is unimpressed. “Pretty much everyone I talk to scoffed at the numbers regardless of who they work for or whether they like Patrick.”
  • Ted Cruz’s campaign recruits Liberty Institute President Kelly Shackelford and former Attorney General Ed Meese as Chairmen of Cruz’s statewide and nationwide Leadership teams, respectively.
  • Hotline on Call suggests that if Perry entered the Presidential race, it would benefit Tom Leppert most by tying down David Dewhurst and uniting moderate Republicans behind his campaign. I find their logic unpersuasive. In Texas, moderate Republicans have shown a strong ability to write checks, but not much luck in defeating high-profile, well-funded conservatives. If they were able to do that, Kay Bailey Hutchison would be governor right now…
  • Democratic longshot Sean Hubbard makes his pitch to the Daily Kossacks on why they should support him over Ricardo Sanchez. Honestly, it’s pretty weak sauce, full of generic “I’ll be a good Senator and listen to my constituents” stuff. He also put up this missive to the Kossacks, which has more liberal talking points of the sort that will please that crowd. But it’s woefully short of what he has to do to even get on the radar. As an underfunded longshot, he pretty much has to be attacking Sanchez every single day from the left if he wants to gain even the tiniest bit of traction in the race. No one beyond hardcore political junkies have even heard of him or realize he’s running at this point. If he can’t change that he’s going to continue being Mr. Irrelevant, despite the fact that Sanchez could very well be vulnerable to a serious challenger on his left flank.
  • Here’s a piece on Senate candidates attending Tea Party events.
  • I’m linking to this piece mainly to mock it, as it looks like the text in the link above has been automatically translated into another language, and then back into English, and then posted without any editing. “Hе accepted thе credentials οf thе forums wіƖƖ contrariety depending οn thе hosting organization, bυt generally any claimant wіƖƖ margin qυеѕtіοnѕ frοm a regressive row acted bу attendees аnԁ thе panelists themselves. Each forum іѕ approaching tο final аbουt dual hours.” Even by the standards of content-scrapping linkbait zombie sites this is peculiar…
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones interviewed in The Jarrell Star Ledger. I’m just happy Jarrell has a newspaper, given the tragic affinity tornadoes have for the place…
  • Finally, one bit of non-news: We’ve been hearing for over a week that Michael Williams was getting out of the Senate race to run for the newly created Texas 33rd Congressional District, an idea buoyed by his absence from the candidate forum on Wednesday. However, Williams has not publicly confirmed or denied the information on either his website, his Facebook account, or his Twitter feed. I can understand weighing your options, but this complete silence on the issue after you’ve already sent out a fundraising solicitation for the congressional race seems a bit odd…