Jason Altmire (PA-4) Headed for Defeat?

April 24th, 2012

Remember Jason Altmire? The Blue Dog Democratic representing Pennsylvania’s 4th District who didn’t roll over when Nancy Pelosi snapped her fingers, and voted against ObamaCare? Thanks to that, while scores of his fellow Democrats were booted out of office in the Great Red Wave of 2010, Altmire hung on to his seat.

It appears his luck has run out. During redistricting, Pennsylvania lost a seat, so Altmire’s district was merged with the 12th District, and early returns show him losing to 12th incumbent Mark Critz (who won the seat in a special election after the death of pork king Rep. John Murtha).

Either way, he 12th should be a pickup opportunity for Republican candidate Keith Rothfus, who had no primary challenge and finished Q1 with $385,000 on hand.

LinkSwarm for April 23, 2012

April 23rd, 2012

I have a few major posts in various stages of gestation, so here’s a LinkSwarm to tide you over in the meantime:

  • Mark Steyn on our heroic Secret Service agents: “It’s not just the entitlements. Everywhere you look in the bloated federal Leviathan, all is waste, all is excess. But the absurd imperial presidency is a good place to start. The next citizen-executive of this republic would be sending a right message were he to halve the motorcade, halve the security detail, halve the hookers.”
  • Does Obama have an $8 billion slush fund to soften the impact of cuts to the Medicare Advantage program until after the election? (Hat tip: Alphecca.)
  • Saudi Arabia’s Grand Mufti OKs marriage for ten year old girls. Insert your own Aisha joke here.
  • The story of the FBI’s long-running PATCON operation in the 1990s, and how it never managed to result in any serious charges (and missed Timothy McVigh to boot). (Hat tip: Supsy Street.)
  • The former President of the Maldives claims that Obama approved of the Islamist coup that deposed him. I’m not sure that’s the case, since it’s obvious that Obama doesn’t know where the Maldives are located.
  • George Washington kicks Rommel’s ass. (Hat tip: An American Housewife, Formerly in London.)
  • Pew Survey: GOP-sympathizers are better informed, more intellectually consistent, more open-minded, more empathetic and more receptive to criticism than their fellow Americans who support the Democratic Party.” (Hat tip: Alphecca.)
  • Voter fraud in Virginia. (Hat tip: Ace.)
  • An oldie, but still relevant why America hates the media.
  • Cyberattack on Iran’s oil industry?
  • Why did the South lose the Civil War?
  • Borepatch reports on the Dallas Blogshoot. I was too busy and it was a bit too long of a drive for me to make. Which is a shame, since I would have liked to try some of the machine guns, and the .50 cal. Bonus: Ponies!
  • PETA With Suits and Deodorant

    April 23rd, 2012

    Here’s a superb example of a viral attack ad that accomplishes everything it sets out to do: attract attention, create an impression, make viewers question their previous view on a subject, and provide a few laughs:

    Until I saw this, I had no idea how much the Humane Society had come to resemble PETA. But you start digging down into the information, and not only do you find out that they’re a lousy charity, but that they have indeed signed on to the whole anti-meat/anti-farming PETA agenda.

    (Hat tip: Shall Not be Questioned, who used the same line from the video as the headline.)

    Texas Senate Race Update for April 20, 2012

    April 20th, 2012

    Q1 reports trickle out and Team Dewhurst attack websites start popping up like mushrooms:

  • Ted Cruz has accused David Dewhurst of helping use gimmicks to balance the state budget because, well, gimmicks have been used to balance the state budget.
  • Here’s James Bernsen of the Cruz campaign making the case that Dewhurst employed accounting gimmicks and increased state budgets an aggregate of $25 billion for the 2004–2011 period. Hopefully I’ll have a chance to bring you some expert opinion on how how balanced the Texas budget has been, what Dewhurst’s role in the budget has been, etc.
  • I’ve already reported the gross numbers, but here’s Cruz’s Q1 fundraising report. Cash on hand was $3.25 million.
  • Cruz has new ad up touting the Mojave desert cross case:

  • MSM members still seem to be baffled that Cruz is a Hispanic who’s not a liberal.
  • Rick Perry formally endorses Dewhurst:

    Before he had sort-of endorsed Dewhurst in an offhand way on the Presidential campaign trail; this is the real deal. It certainly helps Dewhurst, but the language is a bit tepid, “I’m a loyal supporter” rather than “David Dewhurst is awesome and is far and away the best man in the race.” (Hat tip: The Weekly Standard.)

  • Dewhurst’s Q1 FEC report is up. Just shy of $3.2 million cash on hand, or slightly less than Cruz. Presumably Dewhurst could start pouring millions in self-funding into his campaign at any moment. So why hasn’t he? Is he already assuming he’s going to be in a runoff and will carpet-bomb the race with dough then? (I’ll try to look through Dewhurst’s report more thoroughly when I have time.)
  • Robert T. Garrett of The Dallas Morning News sums up the fund race.
  • Team Dewhurst strikes back at Dewbious with their own attack website, The Real Ted Cruz, which seems to be all about the Chinese business case. I still think it’s pretty weak sauce, but I must admit that the Photoshoping of Cruz’s face onto Chinese currency is a nice touch…
  • The Cruz response to the Chinese client issue.
  • Dewhurst has also put up a parody Cruz Pintrest site. Remember the Saturday Night Live 2.0 cast, the one after the entire original cast quit but before they promoted Eddie Murphy? Yeah, it’s not quite that funny.
  • KYFO has a poll asking which Senate candidate you support. So far Cruz is creaming the rest of the field.
  • Dewhurst pushes for repeal of the death tax.
  • Tom Leppert says he’s made several million dollars worth of ad buys.
  • Garrett is also reporting that Craig James had “$525,000 in cash as of March 31, and most of it’s probably money he can use before the May 29 primary, because he himself accounted for three-quarters of his campaign’s $1 million haul.” James’ FEC report isn’t up yet, and I don’t see it linked from James website.
  • James appeared before the Clear Lake Tea Party:

    If you watch all 24 minutes of that, congratulations! You have even more dedication to covering this race than I do…

  • Glenn Addison talks about the environment in Corpus Christi.
  • Addison also raised $19,111 in Q1.
  • Longshot Curt Cleaver raised all of $390 in Q1.
  • Democrat Paul Sadler finally starts to look like the Democratic frontrunner, having raised $72,800 this quarter, including $17,500 in union money. That won’t keep Cruz or Dewhurst up at night, but it may be enough to finish off Sean Hubbard. Lots of contributions from his home base in Henderson, a few from Austin, not much from the rest of the state. (One $500 contribution is from Austin political consultant G. K. Sprinkle, who I knew slightly back in the 1990s when she got a few science fiction stories published.)
  • And you know you’re doomed when even the Dallas Morning News calls your race “Quixotic”.
  • Sean Hubbard picked up the endorsement of the Stonewall Democrats of Dallas Hubbard has been pursuing the endorsements of the gay rights community hard, so this isn’t a surprise, but compared to a lot of other Democratic special interest groups (blacks, Hispanics, unions, government employees (but I repeat myself), etc.) there just aren’t that many votes there.
  • There are supposedly two candidates (David B. Collins and Victoria Ann Zabaras) running for the Green Party nomination for the Senate race. Neither seems to have bothered to put up a website.
  • Heritage Auctions Offers NRA Firearms

    April 19th, 2012

    Although I’ve frequently talked about various Heritage books auctions on my other blog, I think some of my readers here will be interested in hearing about their firearms auction coming up on April 30 as part of the NRA Firearms for Freedom program. I’m not enough of a gun collector to tell you what’s notable, but the gyrojet pistol looks interesting, and they have several vintage Winchester rifles and a couple of flintlocks.

    Wisconsin Democrats Go for the Walter Mondale Strategy

    April 18th, 2012

    The one where you tell potential voters “I’m going to raise your taxes.” We all know how well that worked out for him:

    Sadly, the Saturday Night Live “What Were You Thinking?” skit with Mondale does not appear to be anywhere online…

    Roundup of Senate Debate Coverage

    April 17th, 2012

    Here’s a roundup of coverage of the Texas Senate candidate debate I liveblogged on Friday:

  • Tom Benning at the Dallas Morning News also live-blogged the debate. His write-up is more coherent but less comprehensive or colorful than my own.
  • KERA has some more extended quotes from the debate.
  • The Texas Tribune/Houston Chronicle piece. I think Tom Leppert was admonishing the media more than the candidates.
  • “Dewhurst plays Pinata.”
  • The Ft. Worth Star Telegram story.
  • Big Jolly ranked the debate Leppert, Dewhurst, Cruz, James. He notices the pauses before Dewhurst’s answers, but doesn’t seem to notice the ones in the middle of them, the rambling nature of his answers, or the times he looked absolutely lost in mid-argument. I’m sure Tea Party activists across the state will also take exception to his defense of Dewhurst for not attending “every podunk forum.”
  • Eric Erickson over at RedState (someone far more critical of Dewhurst than myself) had no problem with Cruz’s attacks.
  • Fellow RedStater Susan Cloud liked Leppert the best, and thought Cruz’s “hyper-aggressive attacks” harmed him.
  • Pondering Penguin liked Cruz, who she’s endorsed.
  • WFAA grades the debate:

  • I’ve been looking to see if someone uploaded the debate to YouTube, but so far all I’ve been able to find is Craig James’ closing statement:

  • Twitter feed for the #belodebate. Keep scrolling if you want to read them all…
  • There’s some chatter on Twitter that Cruz’s comment that the Dallas Morning News had “retracted” the story about Cruz hiding the date his father fled from Cuba was wrong. Well, here’s what Robnert T. Garrett said in the DMN: “CLARIFICATION: On some occasions since 2005, Ted Cruz has publicly mentioned the date of his father’s departure from Cuba and even the fact he fought on the same side as Fidel Castro. However, in the past two months, the newspaper found no instances in which he offered audiences any clues that his father was a pre-Castro exile.” That sounds pretty darn close to a retraction to me, even if they didn’t use the word “retraction.”
  • If You Haven’t Finished Your Taxes…

    April 16th, 2012

    …or filed an extension, now would be a Real Good Time to do so.

    Remember: Tax fraud is best left to the professionals.

    Liveblog of the April 13, 2012 Texas Senate Debate

    April 13th, 2012

    Well, I’ve already been distracted by shiny objects, so I guess I’ll close this out. David Dewhurst was a very poor candidate tonight, and he better hope that not too many Republican voters were watching…


    Leppert doesn’t excite the base (with some reason), but he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes either. You can see why he’s hanging around, but a Republican primary doesn’t play to his strengths.


    To win, Cruz has to take the fight to Dewhurst, but in tonight’s debate he did it in a way that seemed too programmed and strident. Leppert’s “I’m not a lawyer” line may be a transparent dig at Cruz, but it still comes across as more subtle than some of Cruz’s attacks on Dewhurst. Cruz needs to pull back a little, be a bit less programmed, and a bit more spontaneous.


    This debate left a lot to be desired from an organizational standpoint. I appreciate a full hour without commercial interruptions, but the “Here are some polling numbers, how can you possibly oppose them” questions were dumb even by the very slack standards of liberal MSM journalism.


    Cruz didn’t win the debate, but Dewhurst certainly lost it. He got worse as the night went on. No wonder he avoids debates. He doesn’t think well on his feet, and he wasn’t prepared for some very obvious questions.

    All three of the other candidates had both good and bad moments. Cruz is a good debater, but, as I’ve said before, his decision to always go back to his stock answers was a mistake. He did well on the Cuba question, but I think he would have done better answering the questions straight without always trying to use them to attack Dewhurst

    James probably raised his stock more than the others by simply being no worse than Leppert or Cruz. His final speech tried to cram too much in too hard.

    Leppert was polished, and came across as reasonable, but his answers tended to allude to positions that were too detailed to cover in the debate format.


    James: Apartment boy eviction notice mayonnaise sandwich life story. (Impassioned speech, a little strong.)


    Cruz: Attacks Dewhurst. “We need strong conservatives.” Record of conservative.


    Leppert: Attacks Dewhurst, attacks Cruz.


    Dewhurst: Most conservative Lt. Gov. (Big pause.) Life story. (He’s gotten worse as the debate has gone on.)


    Slater brings up the budget-cutting question on Dewhurst. Shouldn’t you cut it in good times.
    Dewhurst: Cut state spending. I cut state spending 2003, 11, 12, 13.
    (Man, even I’m wincing in sympathy for Dewhurst on this.)
    Dewhurst: General revenue decline 10.7%


    Asking Cruz the Cuba dictator question.
    Cruz: Knocks the question out of the park. DMN retracted.


    Hmmm. Washington Mutual question for Leppert.
    Leppert: (Very slightly rattled, but recovers quickly.) WAMU’s problems were already in place, and mandated. (Then dances away for his businessman shtick.)


    SA reporter on gay civil unions. (Clip of James opposing gay marriage.)
    James: All of us will be accountable to God. I do support marriage between a man and woman.
    SA Reporter: You’re letting your faith get in the way of (following some liberal poll)
    James (doesn’t back down)


    Leppert to Dewhurst: You raised more lobbyist money than Nancy Pelosi and (didn’t catch), (And…was there an actual question.)
    Dewhurst: Rambling answer “I’ve always done what is right”???????


    Cruz To Leppert: Dewhurst wage tax? Did Dewhurst cut or increase the budget?
    Leppert: I might as well let you ask the question to Dewhurst. (knives Cruz about his career as a lawyer) To you business is academic, to me it’s a living.
    Dewhurst: I have always opposed a state income tax. The facts are wrong. Fed vs. Texas dollars.


    James to Cruz: Why didn’t you support Santorum.
    Cruz: Santorum is a great conservative. But I wanted to let the voters decide. We need strong conservatives to take the Senate.


    Dewhurst just had a senior moment asking whether Craig James would support Cornyn.
    James: I’ll support anyone who supports the constitution and the 10 Commandments. (But he would support Cornyn.)
    Cruz: I said it would be premature of me, but DeMint, Rand Paul, Pat Toomey all support me.


    Candidates ask other candidates questions.


    Reporter: 85% love this cherry-picked issue!
    Leppert: Don’t invite the government in. (Then talks about how the government manages various sub-issues.)
    Cruz: I don’t support then as mandates from the government. TAANSTAFL. Every mandate drives up the cost of health care to buy votes. (Cruz was about to hit a home run, and then went back to the European Dewhurst hit, and turned it into a triple.)
    Dewhurst: I’m running for the senate, my opponents are running against David Dewhurst. We got the best stuff, but we can do better. (An ideologically incoherent answer.)


    Austin reporter: Here are all the ways that ObamCare is awesome via this narrowly tailored polls.
    James: 26 year olds love those provisions because Obama has destroyed the economy. (straddle)
    Dewhurst: Democrats talk about more services. Improve health care outcomes and save money. (Revenge of the Vagues.) Ummm, uhhhh. Look at the cost.


    James: Opposes the wall, supports sending troops to the border. Wall is not practical, (Oppose his answer, but I give him points for floating an answer that swims against conservative consensus.)
    Dewhurst: Supports wall in some spots, but not all. Triple border patrol, a job program for returning vets. (?)
    Leppert: (Ducks wall issue) Secure borders, put accountability in the system. Ask border guys what they need. Washington should supply the tools they want. (Don’t think that’s workable answer.)


    Border wall question: Do you support?
    Cruz: Yes. Triple border patrol. Opposed to amnesty. (Then the attack on Dewhurst.)
    Dewhurst: I’ve always opposed amnesty. Cutting in line is wrong. (This concise format does not favor Dewhurst.)
    Cruz: Dewhurst assigned bills to liberal democratic committee chairman. Washington plays this game all the time.


    James: If an employer doesn’t want tor provide it, they shouldn’t be forced to. (The I’m a businessman schtick)
    Reporter: (Liberal talking points on how mandated contraceptives are awesome)
    James: It’s about freedom. And Democrats want us to talk about contraceptives rather than jobs.
    Dewhurst: Opposes, talks about all the doctors he’s talked to, relatives, etc. Comes across even more scripted than Cruz.


    Dewhurst: I’ve always supported, uh, permissive, free market alternatives


    Cruz: No on contraception, violates religious freedom, is unconstitutional. (Cruz does have a tendency to go to his standard answers, which he does at the end here.)


    San Antonio reporter: Contraception mandate.
    Leppert: “The government was trumping individual freedom.”
    Reporter: Required to mandate?
    Leppert: No. Let patients and doctors make decisions.


    James: Leave it to the military. (James is very good in this shorter format.)
    James: Need major entitlement reform. MSAs, “This is working for middle class.” (sic)


    Cruz: Fundamental entitlement reform, defense reform. (Then back to his points on Dewhurst increasing the Texas budget.)
    Dewhurst: I’ve cut it 7-8 times, billions and billions of dollars, inflation + population growth.


    Leppert: Rely on our armed forces, get congress out of it. Not questions here, detailed proposals.


    Dewhurst: Opposed to the cuts Obama has proposed. Reform procurement.
    So far the candidates are clashing more with the panelists than each other.
    Dewhurst isn’t great, but so far he’s not awful.


    Screw you, panelist, or the yes or no question. You suck
    Panelist: Deficit. Cut defense? (no hands)
    Cruz: Pork yes, defense no.
    Poor job running the panel.


    Mod: 1 minute answer, 30 second rebuttal.


    Leppert: Why not debate? But the issue is a distraction.


    Mod: Why haven’t you shown up?
    David: I’ve shown up at a half dozen (Actually bout 3-LP) I have my campaign to run.


    James: “Put me in an awkward position. It was unethical. I agree conceptual with Ted, because David hasn’t been showing up.”


    Back to the Cruz text message before the debate.
    Cruz: “I’m glad Craig got my text. Lt. Gov has chosen to skip 32 candidate forums. Leppert, James, and I attended. Not rigging.”


    #belodebate on Twitter.


    Just starting. Starting the debate with mention of the Cruz-James text issue.


    Just waiting for the debate to start.


    Tonight I’ll be liveblogging the debate between Ted Cruz, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, and Craig James at 7 PM.

    Texas Senate Race Update for April 12, 2012

    April 12th, 2012

    Reminder: I will be liveblogging the Texas Senate debate here tomorrow at 7 PM. Feel free to drop by for insightful commentary, snarky asides, and no doubt a veritable cavalcade of deeply embarrassing typos.

    Now this week’s Senate race news:

  • Ted Cruz decries Obama’s understanding of the constitution over at NRO.
  • The Hill picks up on the Ted Cruz-Marco Rubio comparison.
  • Ted Cruz picks up the endorsement of…Pat Boone? Actually it’s in his role as spokesman of the 60 Plus Association. Like Dewhurst’s many business association endorsements, it won’t hurt, but I don’t actually see it swaying anyone’s vote. Unless hipsters suddenly made Pat Boone cool while I wasn’t looking…

  • The Cruz campaign also rolled out a new website to attack Dewhurst with, http://www.dewbious.com/. No new revelations there if you’ve been following the campaign closely.
  • The Houston Chronicle profiles David Dewhurst. Honestly, it’s less interesting for the Dewhurst coverage than the usual liberal MSM talking points scattered throughout, including the classic “or like Perry, whose budget called for cuts to public education that some have labeled extreme.” And by cuts he means “increase” and by “some” he means “all my fellow liberal reporters.”
  • The Dewhurst camp dings, quite properly, Cruz-supporter Dick Armey’s reference to Dewhurst being backed by “Daddy’s money.” Dewhurst’s father died when he was three, and Dewhurst spent time in the Air Force and the CIA before making his own fortune in the oil industry. Armey owes Dewhurst an apology, but Cruz does not; receiving someone’s endorsement does not make you responsible for their every dumb statement.
  • Dewhurst agrees to one more candidate forum on May 3, featuring Cruz, Tom Leppert, Craig James and Democrats Paul Sadler and Sean Hubbard.
  • State of play piece in the Houston Chronicle.
  • Dewhurst unveils a new radio ad featuring Mike Huckabee:

  • Tom Leppert unveils a new TV ad:

  • The Texas Tribune notes that Leppert attacked Cruz and Dewhurst, but not Craig James. Well, duh. Why should the guy in third place attack the guy in fourth place?
  • Craig James blasts Cruz for suggesting to him (via text message) he bring up Dewhurst’s constant debate ducking at tomorrow’s debate. A rare misstep for Cruz.
  • Glenn Addison complains about not being included in the debate.