Semiconductors: China Is Fucked

October 17th, 2022

I already touched on this story in Friday’s LinkSwarm, but lots of other people are now twigging to just how huge a story this is. Let’s start with that: “US Firms Pull Staff From China’s Top Chip Maker As Economic War Worsens.”

The Biden administration’s new technology restrictions are already causing disruptions in China as US semiconductor equipment suppliers are telling staff based in the country’s top memory chip maker to leave, according to WSJ, citing sources familiar with the matter.

State-owned Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. has seen US chip semiconductor equipment companies, including KLA Corp. and Lam Research Corp., halt business activities at the facility. This includes installing new equipment to make advanced chips and overseeing highly technical chip production.

The US suppliers have paused support of already installed equipment at YMTC in recent days and temporarily halted installation of new tools, the people said. The suppliers are also temporarily pulling out their staff based at YMTC, the people said. –WSJ

It’s hard to overemphasize how badly fucked China’s chip industry is with this latest move. Semiconductor equipment not only needs regular maintenance, but extremely specialized expertise when something goes wrong and your yields crash, wizards who can look at a wafer defect chart and determine by experience what’s gone wrong with which tool. Without support and spare parts from the western semiconductor equipment giants, expect yields to start crashing in a matter of months, if not weeks, especially if Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron join the pullout.

I just put in a call to the Applied Materials press office to ask them about this. I’ll let you know if I hear back.

As Peter Zeihan notes, these sanctions screw not only China’s semiconductor industry, but every segment of the high tech assembly chain that depends on them.

Takeaways:

  • Not only is China now unable to import the equipment to make semiconductors, or the tools to maintain and operate the equipment, or the software that’s necessary to operate the equipment, or any mid or high level chips at all. Now any Americans who want to assist with the Chinese semiconductor industry have to make a choice: you can have your job with China or you can have your citizenship.

    I’ve read this elsewhere: “One of the provisions of President Joe Biden’s executive order is that any U.S. citizen or green card holder working in China cannot work in the Chinese semiconductor industry or risk of losing American citizenship.” The thing is, I don’t think such sanctions are constitutional, and I’m pretty sure stripping citizenship over trade regulations with a country we’re not at war with would fail the Ninth Amendment “necessary and proper” test.

    Back to Ziehan:

  • “Within about 48 Hours of the policy being adopted last Friday, every single American citizen who was working in China in the industry either quit, or their companies relocated their entire division so they wouldn’t have to lose their staff.”
  • “For all practical purposes the Chinese semiconductor industry of everything over Internet of Things level of quality is now dead, and that has a lot more implications than it sounds.”
  • “Chinese have proven incapable over the last 25 years of advancing sufficiently [to run the technology required] to operate this industry, beyond being able to simply operate the facilities that make the low end chips, and even that had to be managed by foreigners. So there is no indigenous capacity here to pick this up and move on.”
  • “In terms of industrial follow-on, this doesn’t just mean that the Chinese are never going to be able to make the chips that go into cars or computers, it also means that any industry that is dependent upon the hardware dies.”
  • China can’t do anything remotely high tech (hypersonic missiles, AI, Great firewall, etc.) without buying chips on the gray market.
  • “This is a deal killer not just for the industry, but for a modern technocratic system from a technological point of view. China is done.”
  • What’s China going to do about it? “I would expect this kind of ‘bag of dicks’ diplomacy that has evolved in China to get this hard, and loud, which will probably only encourage the Americans to act more harshly.”
  • One sign of that pullout is that Apple has shifted iPhone manufacturing from China to India, and has scrapped plans to use YMTC chips in iPhones.

    In many ways, the Biden Administration’s approach to China has been a continuation and escalation of the Trump approach: No More Mister Nice Guy, with sanctions and reshoring of American industry.

    Short of actual military action, it’s hard to see how China can effectively retaliate against America over these moves. American companies are already leaving, and China has built up so much ill will in various international trade organizations that it’s difficult to see how they could lodge a complaint with one of those and prevail.

    Previously:

  • China’s Chip Industry Is Doomed
  • Top Chinese Chip Executives Arrested
  • China’s Semiconductor Industry: Shell Games All The Way Down
  • China’s Semiconductor Play
  • Drop Drones And A Blinding Flash Of The Obvious

    October 16th, 2022

    Sometimes you have both pieces of the puzzle right in front of your face and never twig to it.

    For months I’ve been watching videos of Ukrainian forces dropping RPGs and grenades from hovering drones onto Russian vehicles. Like these:

    I’ve written about the Russian tank cope cages before, and how they were probably ineffective against top-attack antitank weapons like Javelin. But only today, after several months of watching Ukrainian drones drop grenades on tanks and armored vehicles, did the blinding flash of the obvious occur to me that maybe this is the attack the cope cages were designed to thwart. Maybe Russia ran into this tactic and Syria and it was enough of a concern to have the cope cages installed before rolling into Ukraine. Focused on anti-tank weapons and tank-on-tank engagements, maybe we missed the possible effectiveness of the new drone-drop tactic.

    Arguing against the effectiveness of this tactic, we saw a lot more cope cages at the beginning of the conflict than we’re seeing now. Maybe it’s an ineffective countermeasure. Or maybe Russia just doesn’t have the time or resources to put it on older replacement tanks being sent to the front.

    Why Hasn’t Isopropyl Alcohol Gone Back Down In Price?

    October 15th, 2022

    This is a question I don’t know the answer to, so I thought I’d throw it out to my general readership.

    Why hasn’t isopropyl alcohol dropped back down to its 2019 prices?

    Back then, I remember isopropyl alcohol being priced about on par with hydrogen peroxide, somewhere under $1 for 16 oz bottles of 50% isopropyl alcohol.

    But during The Great Flu Manchu Panic of 2020, the price of isopropyl alcohol spiked and it became scarce as untold millions of households tried to disinfect every possible surface in hopes of eradicating the then-novel virus.

    But now that the pandemic is over, and store shelves are back to being stocked, why is the price of isopropyl alcohol stuck as twice as high as what is used to be? While hydrogen peroxide seems to be back around 86¢, HEB no longer seems to have 50% isopropyl alcohol at all, only the 70% at $1.94 a bottle. But 50% seems just as pricey online at Amazon.

    Earlier this year, HEB was blowing out those off-brand hand sanitizers (which are mostly alcohol anyway) companies started producing during the pandemic for 10¢ each. So why has the price on the real one remained stuck so stubbornly high?

    I have no idea why, so I’m throwing the question out to my readers. If you know, share it in the comments below.

    Are You Prepping For Food Insecurity?

    October 13th, 2022

    Between inflation, the Russo-Ukrainian War, drought, etc., there’s a lot of worry about food insecurity around the world. While I think America will do the best of just about anyone, I’ve long been a cheap prepper, spending around $20 a year on various prep items, but recently I’ve stepped up my food buying, trying to pick up just one extra shelf-stable item a week, just in case. And I’ve been thinking about growing more food beyond the pepper plant I already have.

    Here’s a couple of videos on what to grow for food crops given limited areas.

    Both mention beans, but dried pinto beans are still pretty darn cheap, and if you like those (I don’t), you’ll want to lay in a lot of dried beans. If the emergency lasts long enough, you can grow them when you start to run low.

    I’m not wild about cabbage or kale, but I like potatoes well enough, and I think I could grow those pretty well in a tub or two, as well as sweet potatoes. And I might as well get a pumpkin for Halloween and try spreading the seeds out next spring.

    What are you doing to lay in an extra supply of food?

    [ays_poll id=4]

    If you have any other food tips for the apocalypse (or even just temporary economic disruption, like a possible rail strike), feel free to share them down below.

    Huge Ukrainian Offensive in Luhansk?

    October 12th, 2022

    Weeb Union (not my favorite Ukraine war mapper channel) is reporting a huge Ukrainian offensive just got underway in Luhansk:

    Takeaways:

  • “The reported numbers in this offensive is between 35,000 and 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers over a length of about 50 kilometers.”
  • Goal seems to be full control of the P-66 highway running from Troitske to Kreminna.
  • “They are trying to attack and capture Svatova.”
  • “Svatova is the supply hub of the Russian army here in the Luhansk border.”
  • He postulates this is the last Ukrainian offensive before Russian mobilization reinforcements reach the area. I think he greatly overestimates the effect Russia’s hastily mobilized, ill-equipped and ill-trained new recruits might have on the battlefield.
  • Not seeing any confirmation elsewhere yet. Developing…

    Update: Reporting From Ukraine (which I generally trust more than Weeb Union) also reports a lot of activity in Luhansk, but with a different overall thrust and timeline.

    Takeaways:

  • Russia launched a spoiling attack to prevent Ukraine from advancing on their defensive lines before they were fully repaired, and has some success.
  • Ukraine launched a counterattack south and north of the main Russian spoiling attack, also with some success.
  • They also launched a counter-attack in the center of the line, but with more limited success.
  • He also reports that new Russian conscripts are being put to work building the defensive position, which I can well imagine; any able-bodied adult human should be able to dig a trench. (Unless it’s Texas clay, then all bets are off…)
  • How to reconcile these reports? Both could be right, just looking at different slices of time.

    Why Does Fort Worth ISD Want To Teach “Gender Identity” To Pre-K Children?

    October 11th, 2022

    Evidently no child is too young to push the transexual agenda on, at least to some administrator at Fort Worth ISD, where they give “gender identity” training for Pre-K teachers.

    At Fort Worth ISD (FWISD), a school district of almost 75,000 students, teachers take training sessions that may endorse concepts related to critical race theory (CRT).

    A screenshot obtained from an anonymous FWISD teacher shows that pre-K teachers are required to participate in almost nine hours of “anti-bias” training in order to satisfy continuing education requirements.

    All classroom teachers in Texas must complete 150 hours of continuing education training every five years.

    The description for the anti-bias training reads, “This course offers information on culture and language, racial identity, family structures, gender identity, economic class, different abilities, holidays, and more.”

    And if teachers don’t finish the training, their pay is docked.

    Why does someone at Fort Worth ISD think that pre-K children, who don’t even know what sex is, need to be exposed to “gender identity?” Simply because the victimhood identity politics hard left simply can’t wait to corrupt your children to their worldview. Everything must be subordinated to their warped will-to-power. No child or institution is safe from their clutches.

    Vote accordingly.

    Russia Hits Ukraine With Terror Missiles

    October 10th, 2022

    Following the successful strike on the strategically important Kerch Straight Bridge, Russia responded by launching a volley of missiles into random neighborhoods in Kiev and elsewhere.

    A series of deadly blasts rocked central Kyiv Monday morning, shattering months of relative calm in the Ukrainian capital a day after Russia’s leader blamed Ukraine for an explosion on a key Crimea bridge.

    At least eight people were killed and 24 were injured in just one of the Kyiv strikes, according to preliminary information, said Rostyslav Smirnov, an adviser to the Ukrainian ministry of internal affairs.

    The Kyiv explosions marked the start of an intensive wave of attacks on targets across Ukraine, with conflicting reports suggesting the blasts were caused by missiles or suicide drones.

    Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said in a statement on Telegram that there were “several explosions in the Shevchenkiv district — in the center of the capital.”

    He later said there were “several hits on objects of the city’s critical infrastructure,” adding that there were casualties.

    Lesia Vasylenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, posted a photo on Twitter showing that at least one explosion occurred near the main building of the Kyiv National University in central Kyiv.

    Ukraine managed to hit a strategically important bridge. Russia managed to hit a pedestrian bridge.

    Take that, power walkers!

    Indiscriminate attacks on civilians are not only wrong and a potential war crime, but worse for Russia, they’re also counterproductive and ineffective. We’ve know since The Blitz in World War II that wanton destruction of civilian buildings and infrastructure only hardens the resolve of the targeted populace. Using up missile in pointless displays of impotent fury only makes Putin’s Russia look like even bigger losers.

    Kerch Strait Bridge Update: Russia’s Still Using It

    October 9th, 2022

    As bad as the damage looked from the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion, Russia is still using the bridge:

  • The rail bridge has two tracks going each way, and they ran a test 15-car train on the other span. I have a civil engineer/bridge inspector friend who thinks it’s probably unwise to use the rail bridge at all, as the fire has almost certainly weakened the structure through spalling. But Russia doesn’t have a lot of options.
  • The destroyed train hasn’t been cleared yet.
  • They’ve opened up the surviving lane for traffic. “It’s been said that the road span can handle 20 cars an hour and has a weight capacity of 3.5 tons.” That’s rural mail route capacity, not “support a major front in a war” capacity.
  • Russia is trying to repair the bridge.
  • They’re using passenger-only ferries to cross, but the run rate is so low they may only have one ferry in service.
  • Peter Zeihan says it’s potentially a turning point in the war:

  • “By far the most significant development of the war to date.” I would say that the failure to take Hostomel Airport in the opening phases of the war was bigger, as that meant Russia’s high risk/high reward decapitation strike had failed.
  • “The Kerch bridge is the only large-scale rail connection between mainland Russia and the Crimean peninsula, which is home to about two and a half million people.”
  • All other rail lines are under threat of Ukrainian artillery.
  • He reiterates that everything in Russia runs on rail, as they never built a modern road network in most of the country.
  • “With Kerch being the only real connection, it is the primary primary way that the Russians Supply Crimea in the southwestern front with not just troops and equipment, but with food and fuel.”
  • He estimates the bridge spans couldn’t be repaired without several months of work.
  • “Now that the Ukrainians know it can be done, you can bet they’re going to try to hit other parts of it to make sure the thing stays offline.”
  • “For the first time we have a path forward for the Ukrainians here to win that is not long and windy.”
  • Russia finally has a problem it can’t just shove bodies at. “You don’t throw a half a million people at logistics. This is something where either you have the connections or you don’t.”
  • Russian troops in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea are “suddenly on their own.”
  • They can now only supply those regions in two ways. “One is by truck, and we know that because of all the Javelins that have been put into Ukraine, and all the RPGs, that the Russians are almost out of their entire military tactical truck fleet, and they’ve started using city buses and Scooby-Doo vans, and those just can’t take the volume of stuff that an active frontline needs.”

  • The second way is by ship, and if they can’t supply anti-ship missiles, then Ukrainians can Muscova “every single cargo ship that the Russians try to bring in.”
  • “Losing cargo ships in that volume, losing trucks and buses in that volume, is hollowing out the entirety of the Russian internal transport system. This is the sort of thing that if you bleed this fast, it takes a decade to recover from, and in a war zone that is not going to happen.”
  • And sanctions make everything harder.
  • There still seems to be some confusion over just what blew up the bridge. While truck bomb is still the most widely accepted theory, supposedly Russia scans all trucks before the enter the bridge. And Suchomimus has a video up showing something in the water just before the blast (what isn’t clear).

    Finally, there are persistent reports of arrests of military personnel in Moscow. But the primary source for these reports seems to be Ukrainian, so several grains of salt are probably in order.

    Ukraine Hits Train On Crimean Bridge

    October 8th, 2022

    Ukraine manages to nail a Russian train laden with war materials as it was transiting the Kerch Strait Bridge.

    A massive fire is burning on the Kirch Strait Bridge that connects Russia to Crimea Saturday morning, with images showing multiple train cars fully engulfed and two spans of the road bridge in the water.

    Traffic on the bridge, a critical strategic artery for Russian forces in Crimea amid its war in Ukraine, has reportedly been halted as heavy flames and black smoke spew from a train carrying unknown cargo. Photos also show spans of both east and westbound lanes have collapsed into the water near the burning train.

    Yeah, it looks bad:

    Those collapsed spans are potentially a huge blow to Russia’s entire war effort, as they were already having difficulties keeping all of their field units adequately supplied. With the Kerch Strait Bridge out of commission, the job of resupplying the southern front goes from being difficult to being an absolute nightmare, and makes Melitopol even more vital to keeping troops on the southern flank supplied.

    The bridge cost billions to build after Russia seized Crimea in 2014 and has been one of Ukraine’s top targets, although it lacked traditional weaponry capable of striking it from far away. Even the Pentagon has openly stated that it sees the bridge as a viable target for Ukrainian forces. Russia has deployed air defenses and decoy barges in an attempt to protect it from some kind of attack in recent months.

    It’s hard for even a competent military to have effective air defense all along possible logistics routes, and Russia has been far from a competent military in this war.

    Suchomimus is on it:

    He maps it as too far for HIMARS, and thinks it was likely a drone attack.

    Russia has a 30,000 man strong rail organization. If it hasn’t suffered the same rot as the rest of the Russian armed forces (a big if), and if they can scrounge up the proper equipment (such as a crane barge; another big if), it could conceivably have the bridge repaired and usable again, possibly in as little as two to four weeks. It’s not easy, but it’s doable, and I imagine this is going to automatically jump to the top priority on the Russian logistics list. And, unlike the Antonovsky Bridge, it’s not currently in HIMARS range.

    But given the gross incompetence Russia’s military has shown in so many areas, it’s no sure bet that it can be repaired that quickly (or even at all) with assets in or near the theater.

    The clock is ticking…

    Update: Now reading that it was a truck bomb that took it out, timed to hit a passing fuel train, and that certainly seems plausible from fiercely the train was burning.