Free Speech and Its Discontents

March 7th, 2019

Two stories related to Internet free speech crossed popped up as worth of interest.

First, the blogger behind Star Slate Codex (to which I’ve linked the occasional piece) posted a story about the death of the Star Slate Codex Culture War thread on Reddit, of which I was unaware:

Several years ago, an SSC reader made an r/slatestarcodex subreddit for discussion of blog posts here and related topics. As per the usual process, the topics that generated the strongest emotions – Trump, gender, race, the communist menace, the fascist menace, etc – started taking over. The moderators (and I had been added as an honorary mod at the time) decreed that all discussion of these topics should be corralled into one thread so that nobody had to read them unless they really wanted to. This achieved its desired goal: most of the subreddit went back to being about cognitive science and medicine and other less-polarizing stuff.

Unexpectedly, the restriction to one thread kick-started the culture war discussions rather than toning them down. The thread started getting thousands of comments per week, some from people who had never even heard of this blog and had just wandered in from elsewhere on Reddit. It became its own community, with different norms and different members from the rest of the board.

I expected this to go badly. It kind of did; no politics discussion area ever goes really well. There were some of the usual flame wars, point-scoring, and fanatics. I will be honest and admit I rarely read the thread myself.

But in between all of that, there was some really impressive analysis, some good discussion, and even a few changed minds. Some testimonials from participants:

For all its awfulness there really is something special about the CW thread. There are conversations that have happened there that cannot be replicated elsewhere. Someone mentioned its accidental brilliance and I think that’s right—it catches a wonderful conversational quality I’ve never seen on the Internet, and I’ve been on the Internet since the 90s – werttrew

I feel that, while practically ever criticism of the CW thread I have ever read is true, it is still the best and most civil culture war-related forum for conversation I have seen. And I find the best-of roundup an absolute must-read every week – yrrosimyarin

The Culture War Roundup threads were blessedly neutral ground for people to test their premises and moral intuitions against a gauntlet of (sometimes-forced!) kindness and charity. There was no guarantee that your opinion would carry the day, but if you put in the effort, you could be assured a fair reading and cracking debate. Very little was solved, but I’m not sure that was really the point. The CWRs were a place to broaden your understanding of a given topic by an iterative process of “Yes, but…” and for a place that boasted more than 15,000 participants, shockingly little drama ensued. That was the /r/slatestarcodex CWRs at their best, and that’s the way we hope they will be remembered by the majority of people who participated in them. – rwkasten

What happened was the same thing that happens any time unfettered free speech shows up on the Internet: Social Justice Warriors showed up to ruin it:

This post is called “RIP Culture War Thread”, so you may have already guessed things went south. What happened? The short version is: a bunch of people harassed and threatened me for my role in hosting it, I had a nervous breakdown, and I asked the moderators to get rid of it.

Snip.

So let me tell you about my experience hosting the Culture War thread.

(“hosting” isn’t entirely accurate. The Culture War thread was hosted on the r/slatestarcodex subreddit, which I did not create and do not own. I am an honorary moderator of that subreddit, but aside from the very occasional quick action against spam nobody else caught, I do not actively play a part in its moderation. Still, people correctly determined that I was probably the weakest link, and chose me as the target.)

People settled on a narrative. The Culture War thread was made up entirely of homophobic transphobic alt-right neo-Nazis. I freely admit there were people who were against homosexuality in the thread (according to my survey, 13%), people who opposed using trans people’s preferred pronouns (according to my survey, 9%), people who identified as alt-right (7%), and a single person who identified as a neo-Nazi (who as far as I know never posted about it). Less outrageous ideas were proportionally more popular: people who were mostly feminists but thought there were differences between male and female brains, people who supported the fight against racial discrimination but thought could be genetic differences between races. All these people definitely existed, some of them in droves. All of them had the right to speak; sometimes I sympathized with some of their points. If this had been the complaint, I would have admitted to it right away. If the New York Times can’t avoid attracting these people to its comment section, no way r/ssc is going to manage it.

But instead it was always that the the thread was “dominated by” or “only had” or “was an echo chamber for” homophobic transphobic alt-right neo-Nazis, which always grew into the claim that the subreddit was dominated by homophobic etc neo-Nazis, which always grew into the claim that the SSC community was dominated by homophobic etc neo-Nazis, which always grew into the claim that I personally was a homophobic etc neo-Nazi of them all. I am a pro-gay Jew who has dated trans people and votes pretty much straight Democrat. I lost distant family in the Holocaust. You can imagine how much fun this was for me.

People would message me on Twitter to shame me for my Nazism. People who linked my blog on social media would get replies from people “educating” them that they were supporting Nazism, or asking them to justify why they thought it was appropriate to share Nazi sites. I wrote a silly blog post about mathematics and corn-eating. It reached the front page of a math subreddit and got a lot of upvotes. Somebody found it, asked if people knew that the blog post about corn was from a pro-alt-right neo-Nazi site that tolerated racists and sexists. There was a big argument in the comments about whether it should ever be acceptable to link to or read my website. Any further conversation about math and corn was abandoned. This kept happening, to the point where I wouldn’t even read Reddit discussions of my work anymore. The New York Times already has a reputation, but for some people this was all they’d heard about me.

Some people started an article about me on a left-wing wiki that listed the most offensive things I have ever said, and the most offensive things that have ever been said by anyone on the SSC subreddit and CW thread over its three years of activity, all presented in the most damning context possible; it started steadily rising in the Google search results for my name. A subreddit devoted to insulting and mocking me personally and Culture War thread participants in general got started; it now has over 2,000 readers. People started threatening to use my bad reputation to discredit the communities I was in and the causes I cared about most.

Some people found my real name and started posting it on Twitter. Some people made entire accounts devoted to doxxing me in Twitter discussions whenever an opportunity came up. A few people just messaged me letting me know they knew my real name and reminding me that they could do this if they wanted to.

Some people started messaging my real-life friends, telling them to stop being friends with me because I supported racists and sexists and Nazis. Somebody posted a monetary reward for information that could be used to discredit me.

One person called the clinic where I worked, pretended to be a patient, and tried to get me fired.

Read the whole thing.

Speaking of free speech, Gab has unveiled Dissenter, an online forum dedication to free debate. I’m not sure they’ve figure out the format yet, but you might want to take a look.

Clown Car Mini-Update: Four Out

March 6th, 2019

I still plan on doing a full clown car update Monday, but enough news has popped to update the four names who just announced they’re not running for President.

First up: Michael Bloomberg is not running for President:

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced he won’t run for president in 2020, removing a prominent name from an already crowded field of candidates looking to challenge Donald Trump.

Bloomberg, 77, said he would put his resources into many of the initiatives he’s already involved in, including helping the country transition to renewable energy.

Evidently Bloomberg figured out that being rich and only the second most unpopular New York City mayor in recent memory wasn’t enough to push him over the top.

Know who else isn’t running? Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: “Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley announced on Tuesday morning that he won’t run for president in 2020, saying he’ll have the biggest impact in the Senate.” Yes, an incumbent senator does usually command more respect than a guy who came in tenth in a Presidential primary.

Also not running: Former Attorney General Eric Holder:

Former Attorney General Eric Holder, a confidante of former President Barack Obama and a figure of scorn among congressional Republicans, will not run for president in 2020.

Holder said in a Washington Post op-ed Monday morning that he will instead continue his work, with Obama, on an anti-gerrymandering effort aimed at making districts for the House more competitive, ahead of fast-approaching post-2020 rounds of political line-drawing.

And finally Granny Death, the Hildabeast, the Queen of Mean, Felonia von Pantsuit, Shillary Killary Hillary, the Crooked Clinton herself, will not run for President in 2020.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says she’s not running for president again.

“I’m not running,” the 2016 Democratic nominee told News 12 Westchester. But Clinton added that she would continue “working and speaking and standing up for what I believe.”

“I want to be sure that people understand I’m going to keep speaking out,” Clinton told the local news network. “I’m not going anywhere.”

Except to the ash-heap of history. And possibly prison.

Purple Monkey, Open Thread

March 5th, 2019

I was going to embed another YouTube video, but I get 500 errors on existing YouTube videos, and this icon came up:

Is this because YouTube is deliberately screwing with Project Veritas, or just an unrelated technical glitch? You make the call!

In the meantime: Open thread! Try to avoid blood libels, calls to violence, racism or sexism (the real kind, not the fake SJW kind).

Now a random assortment of Gifs:

Hyperchicken

Democratic Party Presidential Clown Car Update for March 4, 2019

March 4th, 2019

Hickenlooper is In, Inslee is more officially In, and the B team (Biden, Bloomberg and Beto) are still Hamleting. It’s your Democratic Presidential Clown Car Update!

The Washington Post plays the answer top Google questions about the candidates game. Got a chuckle out of this on Pete Buttigieg: “Not only would he be the youngest person ever elected president, he would also be both the first gay president and the first president who liked University of Notre Dame athletics.”

538 polls which candidate early primary state Democratic activists are considering backing. Finally, a poll Kamala Harris comes out on top of! She’s followed by Booker, Brown, Warren, Klobuchar, Biden and Sanders. Biggest drop between November and February? O’Rourke, whose support halved.

538 Presidential roundup.

538 polls.

Democratic Party presidential primary schedule.

Now on to the clown car itself:

  • Losing Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Out.
  • Creepy Porn Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Out.
  • Colorado Senator Michael Bennet: Leaning Toward In. He says people are tired of “rage Olympics,” applauded President Donald Trump’s “America will never be a socialist country” line and says Medicare for all is a pipe-dream. It will be interesting to see if that message gets any traction in a crowed field…
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: Leaning Towards Running. Says his family has signed off on him running. Have some Washington Post consensus opinion on why Biden should run. Oh, and Biden said something nice about his successor, Vice President Mike Pence, which is right up there with the Rape of Nanking or using the wrong pronoun among Democratic Media Complex activists…
  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg: Leaning Towards Running. He’s evidently interviewing potential staffers in Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s also supposedly looking at Manhattan office space for his campaign. Because running a campaign from New York City worked out so well for Hillary Clinton…
  • New Jersey Senator Cory Booker: In. Twitter. Facebook. He campaigned in South Carolina. He’s also leading the endorsement race.
  • Former California Governor Jerry Brown: Doesn’t sound like it.
  • Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown: Likely In. “U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is starting the final leg of his tour of the early presidential primary and caucus states. As he visits South Carolina, Brown says he’s learned a lot as he gets closer to making a decision on a possible presidential run.” Decision? If you’re touring Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, you’ve already decided to get in…
  • Montana Governor Steve Bullock: Leaning toward In, but is reportedly going to wait until Montana’s legislative session finishes, which would be May 1.
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg: In. Twitter. Facebook. With all the attention on Iowa, New hampshire and Couth Carolina, Buttigieg is campaigning at…Scripps College in Claremont, California. I actually had to look that up. It’s part of the Los Angeles sprawl, just west of Rancho Cucamonga…
  • Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, Jr.: Out.
  • Former San Antonio Mayor and Obama HUD Secretary Julian Castro: In. Twitter. Facebook. Said he’s going to run on education, including pre-K funding. (Tiny problem: It doesn’t work. But don’t expect any of Castro’s rivals to voice that heretical thought…)
  • Former First Lady, New York Senator, Secretary of State and losing 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton: Probably not. But check out this ABC news headline: “Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and other 2020 hopefuls honor march on Selma”
  • New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: Out.
  • New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio: Leaning toward In. Not even his wife thinks he should run. Of course, that’s the same wife that can’t account for $850 million in mental health funding
  • Maryland Representative John Delaney: In. Twitter. Facebook. Here’s how Delaney has been campaigning:

    You go to Dewitt, Tipton, Glenwood, Denison, Alba, Knoxville, Perry, Grimes and nine other places this year alone—emphasizing the small Iowa towns that seldom see a presidential candidate. You take out an ad during the Super Bowl two years before the Iowa caucuses — an unheard-of extravagance that no one dared try before. You open six campaign offices in Iowa — before your better-known rivals have opened even one. You win the endorsement of four county central Democratic committees in Iowa — long before the top-tier candidates have lassoed any.

    And you make 24 campaign trips to Iowa and another 14 to New Hampshire, the sites of the first two political tests of the 2020 campaign, states that pride themselves on being the political equivalent of the Cheers bar — places where, the civic folklore says, everyone knows your name.

    Everyone in the political world knows your name, unless, of course, your name is John Delaney.

  • Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard: In. Twitter. Facebook. Paste offers up the far-left peacenik case for Gabbard.
  • Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti: Out.
  • New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand: In. Twitter. Facebook. “Big tobacco, big soda, big booze, big burger, casinos, and Viagra might sound like the ingredients for an extremely lively and health-hazardous night out on the town. They also represent some of New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s major financial backers.”
  • Former Tallahassee Mayor and failed Florida Senate candidate Andrew Gillum: Out.
  • California Senator Kamala Harris: In. Twitter. Facebook. Harris wants all the California Benjamins. Politico says she’s she’s just too awesome at connecting emotionally with voters to offer actual details or plans. “She’s been noncommittal or vague on a range of issues.” One plan floated: legalizing prostitution. My libertarian half both agrees and points out that it’s a state level issue, and thus nothing the President can or should affect. That WaPo Google answer bit above offers this tidbit: “Her sister is Maya Harris, a former adviser to the 2016 campaign of Hillary Clinton who now acts as a political analyst for MSNBC.” It’s incest all the way down…
  • Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper: In. Website. Twitter. Announced this morning. His kickoff rally is in Denver March 7. Upgrade over leaning toward in.
  • Washington Governor Jay Inslee: In. Twitter. Facebook. Already had him as in, but now he’s made it even more official, running as the Climate Change Scold. “2020 Hopeful Jay Inslee Goes National With A Climate Agenda He Failed To Implement In His Own State.”
  • Virginia Senator and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Vice Presidential running mate Tim Kaine: Out.
  • Former Obama Secretary of State and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry: Not seeing any sign. Hey, Vox says they’re monitoring him.
  • Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar: In. Facebook. Twitter. Here’s the roundup list of all the allegations of her abusing staff. I hear she once shot a staffer in Reno, just to watch her die…
  • New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu: Probably Out.
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe: Leaning toward a run? It’s been radio silence from Clintonus Toadius Maximus.
  • Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley: Sounding doubtful. Not hearing much on him. But he got more support in that 538 activists poll than Castro or O’Rourke.
  • Massachusetts Representative Seth Moulton: Seems doubtful, but he says he’s still considering a run. Maybe he just enjoys the Morning Joe attention…
  • Former First Lady Michelle Obama: Out.
  • Former West Virginia State Senator Richard Ojeda: Out.
  • Former Texas Representative and failed Senatorial candidate Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke: Maybe. He’s made up his mind! But he’s not telling us. Yet. More from The Dallas Morning News, if you can get past the beg blocker.
  • New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: Constitutionally ineligible to run in 2020.
  • Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: Out.
  • Ohio Democratic Representative Tim Ryan: Maybe Shading Toward In? Says he’s strong considering it. It’s like a friggng Hamlet convention here…
  • Vermont Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders: In. Twitter. Facebook. Held his first campaign rally in Brooklyn. This just in: The Democratic Party is still trying to screw Bernie:

  • Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer: Out.
  • California Representative Eric Swalwell: Leaning Toward In. He’s in New Hampshire. Evidently what Swalwell learned from the 2016 Presidential election is that the path to the White House is tweeting crazy shit.
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren: In. Twitter. Facebook.
  • Author and spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson: In. Twitter. Facebook. She’s evidently having an Iowa Black Caucus Event, and she has other events scheduled in Iowa and New Hampshire.
  • Talk show host Oprah Winfrey: Out.
  • Venture capitalist Andrew Yang: Running but no one cares. Twitter. Facebook. He was on Tucker Carlson, and an amazingly similar interview, also on Fox, with Not Quite Tucker Carlson. (Is that Pete Hegseth? I’m asking here, I honestly don’t know.)
  • Project Veritas Video on Facebook Deboosting

    March 3rd, 2019

    How Facebook deliberately limits the reach of conservative users using “deboosting.”

    “Now you’re being targeted for which sort of joke you’re allowed to tell.”

    “Meme culture, in their opinion, is what won Donald Trump the Presidency.”

    Oppose Social Justice Warriors, or even use the abbreviation “SJW”? Prepare to get deboosted…

    Caliphate Caput: Take Two

    March 2nd, 2019

    Remember two weeks ago, when I said that the Islamic State has lost its last remaining territory in the Hajin pocket?

    Turns out that pronouncement was premature:

    U.S.-backed forces in Syria are closing in on the last patch of Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate in Syria.

    Syrian Democratic Force spokesman Mustafa Bali said Saturday three SDF soldiers have been wounded. Militants have been killed, he said, but he could not confirm a number.

    “Fighting continues and heavy weapons are being used,” Bali said. “SDF forces have advanced significantly and have moved into Baghuz. Militants are still planting and using IEDs and bombs are exploding as the SDF forces are advancing. There is also heavy street fighting.”

    The advance on the terror group’s remaining fighters began late Friday.

    The final assault, announced on Twitter by Syrian Democratic Force spokesman Mustafa Bali, began just a day after the lead commander said the northeast Syrian village of Baghuz would be liberated within a week.

    Remember that Livemap image that showed no more Islamic State-held territory left in Baghuz?

    Well, this is what it looks like now:

    Some of the confusion stems from the American media’s apparent complete disinterest in covering the end of the Islamic State, meaning that reporting on the conflict tends to vary between spotty and distant to non-existent. Part of the pause in the final assault was apparently to evacuate remaining civilians.

    Hopefully the final final assault is no underway, and the utter destruction of the last of the Hajin/Baghuz pocket is underway.

    Some related tweets:

    LinkSwarm for March 1, 2019

    March 1st, 2019

    India and Pakistan seem to be cooling off slightly, and President Donald Trump prefers no deal to a bad deal with North Korea. So enjoy a Friday LinkSwarm:

  • “Previously Deported Illegal Alien Convicted of Child Rape After Release by Sanctuary City.”
  • Van Jones: “The conservative movement in this country…is now the leader on this issue of [criminal justice] reform…You are stealing my issue!”
  • “Maryland Democratic delegate Mary Ann Lisanti is apologizing for referring to a predominantly black area of the state as a ‘n***er district.'” I’m required by law to use this image:

  • Did you know that U.S. planes were bombing al Qaeda forces in Somilia?
  • Speaking of planes, Pakistan is swearing up and down that India shoot down an F-16…because the terms of the U.S. sale bar them from being used for offense.
  • The scandal that could bring down Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “Mr Trudeau has been accused of pressuring his former attorney general to cut a deal with a company facing corruption charges – and retaliating when she refused to play ball.” (Hat tip: Ezra Levant on Twitter.)
  • 92% of left-wing activists live with their parents and one in three is unemployed, study of Berlin protesters finds.” Someone needs to do a study like that in Portland. Or Austin. (Hat tip: Kathleen McKinley.)
  • What it’s like when every person at a company is autistic. (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
  • How do you stop drinking when you own a restaurant famous for drinking? (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • “Senate Democrats Accuse Republicans Of Trying To Pin Them Down On Complex Issue Of Infanticide.”

    “This is a nuanced discussion,” said Senator Kamala Harris, who voted against the act. “I mean, should we or shouldn’t we murder babies? It’s not really cut and dry for many Americans. What if the baby is inconvenient? What if the mother has already decided it’s a nuisance and might interfere with her school or work? What then?”

  • California’s government has a list of cops convicted of serious crimes. Too bad you’re not allowed to see it. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • True Confessions of Texas Vote Harvesters.” (Previously.)
  • President Trump’s 2020 digital campaign effort is already off and running. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Robert Stacy McCain is at CPAC.
  • Say goodbye to women’s sports. (Hat tip: James Woods on Twitter.)
  • Borepatch co-blogger ASM826 calls a tool company to get a screwdriver tip replaced, ends up talking two hours with the owner who was a marine in the battle of Iwo Jima.
  • You’ve got to be freaking kidding me. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • OK, that is glorious. (Hat tip: Say Uncle.)
  • Nightmare fuel for you and your pet. Thanks, Japan.
  • America’s most beloved mayor dies. (Hat tip: NSFW Henry Pongratz on Gab.)
  • Indo-Pakistani Conflict: Day Three

    February 28th, 2019

    Quick roundup on the Indo-Pakistani conflict:

  • Facing a quick, widespread Indian military mobilization in Kashmir, Pakistan is saying they’re just going to hand the captured Indian pilot over as a gesture of goodwill. (Pakistan’s earlier airing footage of the captured pilot on TV was, in fact, a violation of the Geneva Convention.)
  • Another reason war may be averted in Kashmir is due to bad weather.
  • India supposedly shot down an Pakistani F-16, the pilot of which is MIA.
  • Reports of Pakistan shelling Indian positions. Indian news source, so take it with a grain or two of salt.
  • Evidently the Indian Air Force staged several mock runs to stress Pakistan’s air force before the actual strike.
  • Not buying all the points here, but the analysis of differing Pakistani and Indian nuclear strategy is interesting:

    The Pakistani military’s fear is that the Indian army has an overwhelming advantage, in terms of men and tanks, so may mount a “Cold Start” conventional attack that quickly could seize the major Pakistani city of Lahore and effectively win a war without employing nuclear weapons. As a consequence, whereas India, initially at least, developed strategic nuclear weapons designed to reach all of Pakistan, the latter’s military switched to tactical nuclear weapons to stop dead any Cold Start Doctrine adventure.

    But how easy would it be to halt Indian tank divisions pouring across the desert in the flat border region south of the mountainous terrain of Kashmir, where the current action is taking place? It may sound that I have strange friends, but I know people who have “run the numbers” on this. The answer is that it would take more than 20 Pakistani nuclear weapons to blunt an Indian attack.

    The conventional wisdom is, or certainly was, that nuclear weapons create a balance of terror between rivals. That logic may have applied in the days of the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union, but it no longer is valid — at least between India and Pakistan.

  • “Britain, US and France ask UN to blacklist Jaish-e-Mohammad leader Masood Azhar.”
  • “Jaish-e-Mohammad head Masood Azhar, the real architect of the deadly Pulwama attack, receives the same military protection in Pakistan’s Punjab province as Osama bin Laden did in the military town of Abbottabad, India Today’s open-source investigation shows…India Today’s open-source intelligence team has pin-pointed the Jaish den in Bahawalpur, the 12th largest city of Pakistan’s Punjab.”
  • In both India and Pakistan, people are asking the important questions: Will the war interfere with the Cricket World Cup? In fact, Pakistan’s president Imran Khan is a former cricketer.
  • Pakistan Shoots Down Indian Aircraft

    February 27th, 2019

    In a follow-up to yesterday’s story, Pakistan claims it shot down two Indian aircraft, though India says Pakistan only shot down one, and that India shot down a Pakistani aircraft. The Indian plane lost is reportedly a MiG 21, a plane so old it was used in the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, AKA the Bangladeshi Liberation War. Pakistan has closed off its airspace to all commercial flights and India has instituted a more limited ban on its northern airspace.

    Pakistani PM Imran Khan is calling for talks. Meanwhile, significant portions of India’s population seem positively giddy over India’s airstrikes against the Jaish-e-Mohammad camp. Indian PM Narendra Modi’s tough stance towards Pakistan seems to be boosting his chances in the forthcoming April-May general elections.

    Here’s the BBC News live feed. Local news sources in both India and Pakistan seem too biased to trust.

    As I’m writing this, there are unconfirmed reports of heavy exchanges of fire along the line of control in Kashmir.

    Pakistan has been playing its double game of backing Islamic terrorists while denying it’s doing so for a long, long time. They’ve been doing the same with the Taliban in Afghanistan for three decades. It would be nice if they could be dissuaded from continuing this course of action short of full-scale war.

    Developing…

    Indian Planes Hits Pakistan

    February 26th, 2019

    India and Pakistan’s on-again/off-again conflict over Kashmir is on again:

    Pakistan says India launched an airstrike on its territory early Tuesday that caused no casualties, while India said it targeted a terrorist training camp in a pre-emptive strike that killed a “very large number” of militants.

    The overnight raid was the latest escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals since a deadly militant attack in the disputed Kashmir region earlier this month killed more than 40 Indian soldiers. Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack but has vowed to respond to any Indian military operation against it.

    The Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad claimed responsibility. The bomber, who made a video before the attack, was a resident of Indian Kashmir.

    Pakistan’s military spokesman, Maj. Gen Asif Ghafoor, said the Indian “aircrafts” crossed into the Muzafarabad sector of Kashmir, which is split between the two countries but claimed by each in its entirety. He said Pakistan scrambled fighters and the Indian jets “released payload in haste” near Balakot, on the edge of Pakistani-ruled Kashmir.

    India’s foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale, told reporters in New Delhi that Indian fighter aircraft targeted Jaish-e-Mohammad camps in a pre-emptive strike after intelligence indicated another attack was being planned.

    “Acting on intelligence, India early today stuck the biggest training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammed in Balakot,” he said. “In this operation a very large number of Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and Jehadis being trained were eliminated.”

    The best working assumption here is that everyone involved is lying, which is to assume that Pakistan is backing and funding Jaish-e-Mohammad (probably, like the Taliban, through the ISI), and that Indian planes did hit their targets, but have no way of knowing how much damage they actually inflicted.

    The Indian Air Force used Sukhoi-30MKIs and Mirage 2000s with laser-guided bombs in the strike. Neither of those is state-of-the-art. Sukhoi-30MKI is a local build of a Russian F-15 clone introduced in the 1990s. The French Mirage 2000 was first introduced in the 1970s, though the Indian version has been considerably upgraded. None of those are remotely close to state-of-the-art. Fortunately for Indian, Pakistan’s air force is not much more modern, with American F-16s and the Pakistani/Chinese co-built F-17 Thunder being their top of the line.

    Three of India and Pakistan’s four wars have been fought over Kashmir, mostly recently in the Kargil War of 1999, when Pakistani troops infiltrated into Kashmir over the “line of control” and got their asses kicked. The biggest difference between 1999 and now, of course, is that both India and Pakistan have considerably expanded their nuclear arsenals, both thought to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 140 nukes each.

    Now there are reports of both countries mobilizing, of sporadic gunfire across the border, and Pakistan stating it will strike back “at a time of its choosing.

    Making things even more unpredictable is that both Pakistan and India are ruled by weird religious-ethnoationalist populist parties, Imran Khan’s Islamist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Narendra Modi’s Hindu Bharatiya Janata. It’s hard to know just how far either will take things if push comes to shove. Probably well short of letting the nukes fly, but who knows?

    It would be nice if our media would focus on things like “possible nuclear war” rather than, say, the beliefs of Trump’s pastry chef, but that’s not the media we have…