You Can’t Beat Something With Nothing

March 14th, 2012

Now that all the post-redistricting filings have been finalized, I thought I would take a look at Texas U.S. congressional races to see where either the Republican or the Democratic party has failed to field a candidate. While districts are usually drawn to protect incumbents and minimize the chances of the out-of-power party, it’s usually best to contest all possible races, for a variety of reasons:

  • You can’t beat something with nothing.
  • It helps tie down time, money and effort that could otherwise be shifted to other races.
  • It helps down-ballot races by drawing voters to the polls.
  • It offers a chance for Republicans to get their message of limited government, lower taxes and greater freedom out to people who might not otherwise hear it, and possibly make some converts in the process (the parable of the sower).
  • Stuff happens. Sudden, unexpected twists of fate can play out at any moment. Incumbents get caught stuffing bribe money into their freezer or consorting with prostitutes. Planes crash. And there’s always the possibility of someone being caught in bed with a dead woman or a live goat.
  • Unexpected opportunities arise, but you can’t take advantage of them if you don’t have a candidate in place.

    With that in mind, let’s see how well Republicans and Democrats have done in finding candidates for all 36 Texas congressional races:

    U.S. Congressional Races Where Democrats Failed to Field a Candidate

  • U.S. Representative District 2: Republican Incumbent Ted Poe
  • U.S. Representative District 3: Republican Incumbent Sam Johnson
  • U.S. Representative District 4: Republican Incumbent Ralph Hall
  • U.S. Representative District 13: Republican Incumbent Mac Thornberry
  • U.S. Representative District 17: Republican Incumbent Bill Flores (in a seat that was held by Democrat Chet Edwards until 2010!)
  • U.S. Representative District 19: Republican Incumbent Randy Neugebauer
  • U.S. Representative District 25: Open seat, formerly Lloyd Dogget’s until he moved to the newly created 35th District following redistricting. No less than 12 Republicans have filed for this seat (including former Senate candidates Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and Charles Holcomb). 56% of the newly reformulated 25th District’s residents voted for McCain in 2008; that’s solidly, but not overwhelmingly, Republican. But not one Democrat bothered to run…
  • So that’s seven U.S. Congressional races where Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Chair for Recruiting and Candidate Services Allyson Schwartz, and, well, whoever the hell it is at The Texas Democratic Party in charge of recruiting candidates, were unable to find a single person out of approximately 688,488 citizens in each of those districts to run for the United States House of Representatives. Say what you want about Alvin Greene running for Senator in South Carolina, but at least he showed up, which Texas Democrats couldn’t even manage to do in almost one-fifth of U.S. Congressional races this year.

    By contrast, Republicans only fell down on the job in one congressional district:

    U.S. Congressional Race Where Republicans Failed to Field a Candidate

    U.S. Representative District 29: Democratic incumbent Gene Green gets a pass. In a district that went 62% for Obama, any Republican was going to have an uphill race. But given that there are five districts even more heavily Democratic (the 9th, 16th, 18th, 33rd, and 35th) where Republicans fielded a candidate, this seems like a lost opportunity, especially for a Republican Hispanic candidate in a Hispanic district headed by an old white guy. (Granted, this didn’t work for Roy Morales in 2010, but I would have preferred that Morales file again and run a token campaign over no one running at all.)

    All in all this is good news for Republicans. If I were a Democrat, I’d be mad at how thoroughly the state and national party fell down on the job of recruiting candidates.

    A suggestion: All six Republican incumbents who haven’t drawn an opponent should each hold a fundraiser for Republican Incumbent Francisco “Quico” Canseco, who figures to have the toughest race of any incumbent this time around.

    References

  • The Texas Congressional Delegation
  • List of 2012 Texas Republican Congressional Candidates
  • List of 2012 Texas Democratic Congressional Candidates
  • Daily Kos redistricting breakdown that includes numbers on how each District voted in the 2008 Presidential race.
  • LinkSwarm for March 13, 2012

    March 13th, 2012

    A bunch of news popping up, including some from the Middle East:

  • Here’s the actual Dewhurst denial of the Tony Podesta/Democratic fundraising story.
  • A left-wing Irish documentary maker sets out to make a documentary about the plight of the Palestinians, but gets waylayed by those annoying facts, and instead decides to tell both sides of the story. Guess what? His friends aren’t interested. “The problem began when I resolved to come back with a film that showed both sides of the coin. Actually there are many more than two. Which is why my film is called Forty Shades of Grey. But only one side was wanted back in Dublin. My peers expected me to come back with an attack on Israel. No grey areas were acceptable.”
  • Israel and Hamas declare a ceasefire after four days of fighting. Honestly, maybe because I was traveling, or because I no longer feel the need to consult MSM news sources on a daily basis, I was actually unaware that there was slightly more violence than usual in the Middle East. The fact that Hamas cried uncle after a mere four days, despite the fact that Israel set it off by giving Hamas leader Zuhair al-Qaissi an express ticket to paradise, tells you that they must really have been getting their asses kicked by the IDF. Maybe Zuhair al-Qaissi really was important, or possibly Iran and Syria have had their hands too full to dole out the Qassam rockets with their customary generosity.
  • Speaking of Syria, Michael Totten talks to Andrew Tabler about what it’s like under the Assad regime in Syria, as covered in Tabler’s new book In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle with Syria.
  • That whole “force Catholics to pay for contraception” deal? Turns out it’s not working out so well for Obama.
  • Eric Holder seems desperate to let illegal aliens vote.
  • Good evening, I’m Chevy Chase for Weekend Update. California is still screwed. So is New York. Good night, and have a pleasant tomorrow.
  • Forget TVs and car radios: The hot item for thieves these days is bottles of Tide.
  • So, After All That, Greece Might Still Default Anyway?

    March 12th, 2012

    Apparently so. Fitch has downgraded Greece’s credit ranking to selective default. And all this despite the deed being all but done.

    It turns out that Greece forcing haircuts on recalcitrant bond holders via the “Collective Action Clause” automatically triggers credit default swaps, the financial instruments that helped bestow such laughter and joy unto the world economy in 2008. There’s such a fine line between “bankrupt” and “solvent.”

    But thanks to the rest of the EuroZone ponying up money to keep Greece solvent, Greece’s national debt will decline…from 120% of GDP, to a tiny, minuscule, almost-impossible to see 117% of GDP. In 2020. You know, the same year I’ll be enjoying a regular threesome with Olivia Wilde and Megan Fox.

    But the bailout is accomplishing its primary goal: Keeping the whole thing from collapsing while Eurocratic insiders get to pretend everything is OK long enough to dump their losses onto taxpayers and continue to milk the rubes just a little bit longer.

    And there’s already talk of another bailout being necessary before the ink on this latest batch of fiat Euros was even dry. A new record!

    EarthQuest Fails

    March 10th, 2012

    You may remember my mention of EarthQuest, the projected Montgomery County “environmental theme park” that was going to be partially financed with public money.

    Well, now comes word from Dwight that it is officially kaput. “No construction is planned; investors are nowhere to be found. Funding to EarthQuest consultants has stopped.”

    Who could have possibly predicted that? Well, beside the blogger who wrote “the entire project has “money-losing rathole” written all over it,” that is…

    Ciro Rodriguez Blinks

    March 9th, 2012

    In the game of District 35 Chicken, Ciro Rodriguez decided that no, he didn’t want to face off against Lloyd Doggett’s 18-wheeler full of money and swerved aside. Instead he’s going to run against Republican incumbent Francisco “Quico” Canseco for the 23rd Congressional District seat Rodriguez lost to him in 2010. But before that, he has to get past State Rep. Pete Gallego, who has been running for the 23rd for months and tried (unsuccessfully) to warn Rodriguez off what is now likely to be a very bruising Democratic primary fight. (John Bustamante, son of yet another former Democratic congressmen, is also running, but with only $3,000 in his campaign coffers, I see no sign that he has gotten any traction, whereas both Rodriguez and Gallego have broken the $100,000 mark.)

    Texas Public Policy Foundation Snags Richard Epstein

    March 9th, 2012

    The Texas Public Policy Foundation announced that legal scholar Richard A. Epstein was joining them as a Senior Fellow at the Foundation’s Center for Tenth Amendment Studies.

    That’s a terrific pickup for them. Epstein is on a very short list of the very most important conservative legal scholars in the country. His book Takings (which, I must confess, I still haven’t read) is widely regarded as the most comprehensive legal exegesis of why the New Deal is unconstitutional. I think Epstein (like Mario Loyola and Ted Cruz) will find the Center for Tenth Amendment Studies an ideal place to further his research.

    Congratulations to TPPF for a very solid addition to their already impressive array of scholars.

    Tea Party Takes Another Scalp

    March 8th, 2012

    Ohio Republican incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt has been ousted by political newcomer Brad Wenstrup in the Republican Primary. Mark her down (along with Charlie Crist and Mike Castle) as another Establishment Republican taken down by the Tea Party. John Fund comes to the same conclusion on NRO, noting “votes to raise the debt ceiling and for the Wall Street bailout, support for the pro-union Davis-Bacon Act, and a record of supporting tax increases when she was in the state legislature.” Among the issues the Super-PAC Campaign for Primary Accountability (who spent $241,000 in advertising against her) cited in opposing Schmidt were her taking money from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee PAC in her first race for congress, her love of earmarks, and various campaign-related abuses of taxpayer money.

    This is a safe Republican seat, so the replacement of a Washington establiushment Republican with a fresh conservative is a good thing. And, as Micky Kaus has noted, defeating wayward Republicans in primaries does wonders for keeping the others from wavering…

    Williams Switches from CD33 to CD25 Race. No, the OTHER Williams.

    March 8th, 2012

    I wonder if Michael Williams is thinking about swearing out a stalking complaint against Roger Williams.

    First Michael Williams dropped out of the Senate race to run for the newly created Congressional District 33 on June 17th. Then, a week later, Roger Williams did the same. Then at the end of July, Michael Williams switched from the District 33 race to the District 25 race. Now, in the wake of the redistricting decision, ensuring that 33 is going to be a “minority opportunity” district, Roger Williams is following Michael’s lead again, announcing that he’s switching from the District 33 to District 25 as well, which means we’re finally going to get that Williams vs. Williams showdown.

    I’ve made my feelings about district-shopping and carpetbagger bids clear before. Roger Williams’ home of Weatherford is smack dab in District 12, currently represented by Republican incumbent Kay Granger. I can certainly understand not wanting to take on an entrenched Republican incumbent, but that still doesn’t justify district shopping.

    That said, I think either Williams would make a solid Republican Representative.

    Texas Senate Race: Boone, Holcomb Out, Grady Yarbrough In

    March 7th, 2012

    The latest Democratic Party filing information shows Daniel Boone no longer running for U.S. Senator, but rather running in the U.S. 21st Congressional District against the SOPA-loving incumbent Republican Lamar Smith. I’m not sure this is a good move for Boone, since I think he was at least as likely as Paul Sadler to win the nomination. Republican Charles Holcomb has also dropped out.

    Conversely, a Grady Yarbrough now appears on the list of Democratic candidates. He appears to be a personal counselor [update: apparently not the same Grady Yarbrough; see comments] and his named is spelled differently than the late Texas Senator Ralph Yarborough, who helped transform the Texas Democratic Party from a majority conservative party to a minority liberal one.

    I’ll update the candidate page tomorrow.

    Giving the People What They Want

    March 7th, 2012

    The top ten search terms leading people to my blog today:

    1. dennis kucinich wife
    2. encrypted_search_terms
    3. mrs. dennis kucinich
    4. kucinich wife
    5. mrs dennis kucinich
    6. kucinich’s wife
    7. call girls (goes to a piece on Eliot Spitzer)
    8. hot wife
    9. kucinichs wife
    10. kucinich wife pictures

    What can I say? I’m giving the people what they want.

    Vox populai, vox dei